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This is the biggest El Niño on record, and a killer La Niña is coming

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Robrites

California braces for 'once-in-10-year' storm amid fears of flooding, avalanches, bli

California braces for 'once-in-10-year' storm amid fears of flooding, avalanches, bli

California braces for 'once-in-10-year' storm amid fears of flooding, avalanches, blizzards

Sierra travelers trapped by back-to-back storms that dropped more than 2 feet of snow have a brief window to pass, before the arrival of a weather system Saturday so wet forecasters are calling it an "atmospheric river."

Up to 12 inches of rain below 8,500 feet are expected, and massive amounts of snow — up to 6 feet — above that elevation. A fifth, colder storm two days behind that will drop yet more heavy snow.

“It’s a once-in-10-year event,” said Zach Tolby, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Reno. “It’s the strongest storm we’ve seen in a long time, the kind of setup we look for to get significant flooding.”

The atmospheric river, or “Pineapple Express,” will be felt across much of California this weekend, though rains will be much heavily in the north than in the south.

Tolby said the storm is packing the same wallop as an atmospheric river that hit Northern California a decade ago that caused $300 million in damage, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Angelenos may remember the 2005 storm because it was the first time it rained on the Rose Parade in 51 years. But Tolby, who lives in Lake Tahoe, remembers the storm differently.

“It was pretty wild. I was here in 2005 and it was definitely the hardest rain I’d ever seen. It didn’t stop for 24 hours,” he said.

This weekend’s storm could bring 36 straight hours of heavy rain from Mammoth Mountain to Susanville, Tolby said.

In the mountains, the rain could pile onto the snow and trigger early snow melts, feeding extra water into watersheds already swollen from a week of rain.

“A combination of intense rain on saturated soils will lead to excessive runoff,” the National Weather Service said in its weekend forecast.

The Carson, Truckee and Susan rivers are all expected to become overwhelmed and the nearby communities may become increasingly isolated if the deluge triggers mud flows and rock slides.

In Mono County, authorities offered sandbags to residents in preparation for the rain. In Yosemite National Park, authorities are cautioning visitors to check with the park before heading in — the weekend storm could close Yosemite if the Merced River floods, they said.

Colfax, known as the turnaround town, is ready.

"It's something we prepare for — it goes with the snow, hand in hand," said Wes Heathcock, community services director for the tiny Placer County town that has perhaps one of the most used Interstate 80 on/off ramps in Northern California when it is a snow day.

When snow conditions become too treacherous, the California Highway Patrol typically closes Interstate 80 at Colfax, as it did Wednesday during a snowstorm that also brought a car-semi collision. Perched at an elevation 2,400 feet, the official tagline of Colfax is "above the fog, below the snow."

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R

Robrites

'State of panic' grips Northern California as atmospheric river approaches the Sierra

'State of panic' grips Northern California as atmospheric river approaches the Sierra

Public agencies across Northern California are bracing for a weekend of epic rain and snow after meeting with hydrologists from the National Weather Service who warned them that the incoming atmospheric river packs a punch not seen in at least a decade.

“People are definitely in a state of panic right now,” said El Dorado County sheriff’s Sgt. Todd Hammitt. “We’re getting a lot of calls asking if we’re going to be able to deal with everything. It’s the general pandemonium of not knowing what’s coming.”

Up to 12 inches of rain is expected below 8,500 feet, and massive amounts of snow — up to 6 feet — above that elevation across the Sierra Nevada. A colder storm two days behind will drop yet more heavy snow. On Friday night, scattered rain was falling in parts of the Bay Area as the first band of the storm began to move in.

“We’re expecting heavy, heavy rain. It starts out as snow then turns to rain then turns to snow again,” Hammitt said. “We’re concerned about the melt increasing waterways and all the lakes.”

Hammitt recalled storms in 1997 and 2005 when runoff overwhelmed local rivers and creeks and sent water into roads and homes, lifting some buildings off their foundations.

“We have streams, creeks, rivers. We have lakes and ponds,” Hammitt said. “Anybody near a water source could be in jeopardy depending on the severity of the storm.

Two sinkholes have already emerged on county roads as a result of three stormy days this week. County residents have already filled 12,000 sandbags in preparation for the storm and an additional 20,000 are on the way in, Hammitt said.

“Anytime it’s Mother Nature, you have to be ready,” Hammitt said.

The region is expected to be hit Saturday, Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

“It’s a once-in-10-year event,” said Zach Tolby, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Reno. “It’s the strongest storm we’ve seen in a long time, the kind of setup we look for to get significant flooding.”

Indeed, large swaths of the Bay Area, Sierra foothills, Central Coast and parts of the Sacramento Valley were under flash flood warnings. The flood concerns have been heightened because officials fear that some of the snowfall will quickly melt due to heavy rain.

The atmospheric river, or “Pineapple Express,” will be felt across much of the state this weekend, though rain will be much heavier in the north than in the south.
 

aridbud

automeister
ICMag Donor
Veteran
Times, they are a changin'....weather patterns too.
The prediction of the El Niño and La Niña didn't pan out for some last year(2016).....kind of fizzled (depending where you were). Record heat in many areas.

This year may prove different.
 

DocTim420

The Doctor is OUT and has moved on...
WhooYa, Hwy 395 will NOT be the place to be for a couple of days/weeks.

90


http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...-widespread-heavy-rain-in-western-us/70000459
 
R

Robrites

Why record precipitation may not cure California's water issues

Why record precipitation may not cure California's water issues

Californians may be getting all the precipitation they wished for, and then some. A wet October followed by a series of big rain and snowstorms kicking off the new year has made for one of the wettest rainy seasons so far in California's record-keeping.

"It's undoubtedly in the top five," said Doug Carlson, an information officer with the state's Department of Water Resources.

As of Tuesday, the rainfall for Northern California was just over 200 percent of average, according to the Department of Water Resources. And the water content of the snowpack statewide was 135 percent of average.

After five years of drought, the precipitation is needed, but it has also caused problems.

"We are navigating both flood and drought at the same time here," said Michael Anderson, the state's climatologist.

The state is still taking stock of the extent of damage, but so far homes have been affected; flooding, landslides and heavy snow have closed roads; several rivers have flooded their banks; and some levees in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta are showing weakness and need to be repaired. For the first time in more than a decade, the floodgates of the Sacramento Weir were opened to funnel Sacramento River water to the Yolo Bypass.

"So far, we've been pretty lucky: Quite a bit of water has managed to fall on California over the past couple of months without seeing highly damaging flooding," said Daniel Swain, a NatureNet postdoctoral fellow at UCLA's Institute of the Environment and Sustainability. "This week, we're seeing the first signs of tipping too far in the other direction – quite a few rivers and streams in Northern California have already flooded or will flood shortly. This is a pretty typical feature of California's 'feast or famine' climate: It often takes a flood to break a longstanding drought in this part of the world."

There is no denying that recent precipitation will make a good dent in the state's water deficit, especially when it comes to filling reservoirs. But it's still too soon to fully take stock of the drought impact with the peak of the snowpack still about three months away and two more months left of the heaviest precipitation time, said Carlsen.

"The question will be whether this wet pattern can persist for the rest of the winter, and whether temperatures will be cold enough to maintain a healthy snowpack into the spring," said Swain. Last year, warm temperatures quickly reduced accumulated snowpack in the northern Sierra. "In parts of Southern California, the severity of long-term drought remains quite high, and we would still need to see a prolonged streak of above-average precipitation in that region to bring things back closer to where they should be."

Although recently Southern California has finally been getting some rain, too. "This has been one of the most productive storms over a large area of California that we have probably seen in the last five years," said Jan Null, a meteorologist with Golden Gate Weather Service. Last year, the central and southern Sierra really lagged behind, he said.

Anderson said that although Los Angeles and San Diego both have gotten rain from recent storms, a swath of central California stretching from Santa Barbara County to Tulare County is still missing out.

While the amount of surface water in streams, rivers and reservoirs is promising right now, California will still need years to recoup the over-pumping of groundwater.

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D

Dioni

One minute everyone in Cali is begging for rain ...the next minute they don't want rain. Make up your minds.

Oh and this probably happened before many times thru the centuries. On the bright side, just think how much gold is going to be replenished in all the prime spots! :biggrin:
 
R

Robrites

Call it the Southern California drought. Rain and snow end Northern California water

Call it the Southern California drought. Rain and snow end Northern California water

Call it the Southern California drought. Rain and snow end Northern California water woes

What was once a statewide drought this week became a Southern California drought.

A week of powerful storms has significantly eased the state’s water shortage, pulling nearly all of Northern California out of drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

The report underscores what experts have been saying for several months. As a series of storms have hit Northern California this winter, the drought picture there is improving, but water supply remains a concern in Southern California and the Central Valley.

More than 40% of the state is no longer in a drought, according to the data released Thursday.

Perhaps most striking, a giant swath of the state was declared to have no signs of abnormal dryness at all. The percentage of the state that fell into that category nearly doubled from 18% last week to almost 35% after the storm.

Still, the drought monitor’s map and its array of colors — from white to dark red — provide a stark illustration of the disparity between hydrologic conditions in the north and south.

Storms drenched the San Francisco Bay Area and created blizzard conditions in parts of the Sierra Nevada over the last week. They dramatically boosted the Sierra snowpack — a key source of water for California — to 161% of normal and helped rectify the state’s water shortage.

But the weather systems also carved a path of destruction. The storms likely caused at least four deaths.

Since Oct. 1, total precipitation in the Sierra Nevada has been soaring at rates similar to the wettest winters in the modern record: 1982-83 in the northern and central Sierra and 1968-69 in the southern Sierra.

Lake Shasta, the state’s largest reservoir and a major source of water for San Joaquin Valley agriculture, is 82% full and releasing water to create more storage room. Oroville, which supplies the State Water Project, is 77% full and also making releases.

At present, conditions are considered normal in almost all of the state north of the Bay Area, according to the new federal drought report. (Authors use measurements of climatic, hydrologic and soil conditions and consider reported impacts and observations to create the map.)

Thursday’s assessment was less rosy for Southern California.

Los Angeles and Orange counties, along with much of Central California, are locked in what officials classify as “extreme drought” — or worse.

Chunks of Ventura and Santa Barbara counties remain in “exceptional drought.”

Lake Cachuma, a barometer of Santa Barbara’s severe water shortage, has received relatively meager rainfall since the start of the month, and as of Thursday, it was filled to only about 11% of its historical average.

Officials said it held only a bit more than 8% of its capacity.
 
R

Robrites

Weather experts say new El Niño possible later this year

Weather experts say new El Niño possible later this year

Scientists from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) say there is a possibility of a new El Niño event forming later this year.

In 2015 and 2016, a powerful El Niño drove up global temperatures and played a role in droughts in many parts of the world.

Normally the weather phenomenon only re-appears every two to seven years.

Neutral conditions are most likely later this year but there is also a 40% chance of a new El Niño forming .

The complex and natural weather event is marked by an upwelling of warm water in the Pacific that accumulates off the west coast of North and South America, causing stormy conditions locally.
Image caption El Niño was believed to have played an important part in causing a drought in Malawi

The so-called "Super El Niño" of 2015 and 2016 is said by experts to have had a role in driving global temperatures to record highs.

Earlier this week researchers detailed the impact of the event on winter beach erosion in California, which was 76% above normal according to the study.

However, the influence of El Niño is felt right around the globe, affecting monsoons in Asia and droughts in Africa.
Cooling off

Often after an El Niño, you get a marked reversal of conditions - a so-called La Niña event.

According to the WMO, the recent cooler ocean conditions were only intermittently indicative of La Niña, and in January this year they returned to a neutral state.

So weak was the overall impact that many scientists dubbed the event "La Nada" - which translates as "the nothing" in Spanish, the original source of the "La Niña" and "El Niño" terms.

However, off the coast of Peru there's a different picture.

Ocean temperatures in the region have increased by 1.5C above average, creating "a coastal El Niño", which scientists say could develop into a more widespread event although overall, neutral conditions are still more likely.

To achieve an official El Niño status, temperatures across a large part of the equatorial Pacific have to be at least 0.5 degrees above average and sustain for three months.

"It is a bit unusual but not completely unprecedented," said Dr Rupa Kumar Kolli from the WMO.
Image caption California suffered record levels of beach erosion as a result of El Niño

"At least for the fist half of this year, the neutral conditions will continue, if this coastal El Niño actually expands and becomes a typical El Niño, we will know that with more confidence after the spring."

Researchers say that by May they will have a far better picture. But they believe that given the potential impacts that an El Niño can bring, it is better to raise the possibility now so that authorities can be prepared.

"If actually the El Niño does take off, then it has a lot of implications for many of the monsoon regions," said Dr Kolli.

"It is associated with a big monsoon in much of South East Asia - and drought in some parts of Africa. People should be aware of these possibilities."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-38993063
 
R

Robrites

Strongest storm in years moving into California

Strongest storm in years moving into California

The strongest storm to hit Southern California in several years is expected to bring torrential rain, flash flooding and powerful winds Friday.

-- A flash flood watch has been issued for Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles counties from Friday morning through Saturday morning.

-- Evacuations have been ordered in some burn areas.

-- High surf could cause coastal flooding.

-- Powerful winds could result in downed trees and power lines.

The storm is expected to dump up to 6 inches of rain on Los Angeles County beaches and valleys and 5 to 10 inches on south-facing foothills and coastal mountain slopes, according to the National Weather Service . A flash flood watch has been issued for Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles counties from Friday morning through Saturday morning.

Much of that rainfall is expected to fall within a short time Friday afternoon and evening, with rain potentially falling at a rate of more than an inch an hour, forecasters said.

“The Friday morning commute is definitely going to be wet,” but the rain is just going to get heavier as the day progresses, said Kathy Hoxsie, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard.

"The afternoon commute is going to be a mess,” Hoxsie said. “Hopefully people can take a half day off. Being a Friday, I know a lot of people do that anyway. … The evening is shaping up to be nasty.”

The storm is likely the strongest to hit the region within the last six years, according to the weather service.

Rainfall began falling on the Central Coast early Thursday and is expected to move into Southern California overnight, Hoxsie said.

Wildfire burn scars in Duarte and Azusa are particularly vulnerable with this storm, she said.

The system also is bringing powerful southerly winds that will increase dramatically on Friday, with gusts up to 60 to 70 mph likely over high elevations in Ventura, San Luis Obispo and Los Angeles counties, as well as the Channel Islands and Santa Catalina Island, according to the weather service. Damaging wind gusts are also possible in the Antelope Valley.

“It’s going to be blowing really well,” Hoxsie said. “We’re trying to tell folks, don’t just do your usual preparation for rain, but also, if you’ve got anything outside that could be moved into the garage, this would be the storm where you should do that.”
 

DocTim420

The Doctor is OUT and has moved on...
Check out this graph of Lake Oroville storage levels since "day 1". Historically the lake's high water levels are right before summer (June 1) after all the snow melt. Hmmmm, what is going to happen this year around June 1, considering the lake maxed out this month?
picture.php


Then we have this little tidbit from 2011--

Communities just downstream of California's Lake Oroville dam would not receive adequate warning or time for evacuations if the 770-foot-tall dam itself — rather than its spillways — were to abruptly fail, the state water agency that operates the nation's tallest dam repeatedly advised federal regulators a half-decade ago.

The state Department of Water Resources informed federal dam regulators that local emergency officials "do not believe there is enough time to perform evacuations in the communities immediately downstream of the dam during a sudden failure," according to a Feb. 8, 2011, letter reviewed by The Associated Press.

Absent "significant" advance warning, emergency responders instead would likely withdraw to safer ground and prepare for victims, said the same letter by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which oversees safety of hydroelectric dams, in a summary of the state's conclusions.


http://www.sfgate.com/news/us/article/AP-Exclusive-Warning-escape-route-lack-by-10939833.php

And people wonder why I don't trust my government...lol.

BTW--source of the graph https://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/resDetailOrig.action?resid=ORO
 
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that chart isn't showing june as being the highest input month. that's when input stops so they want it as full as possible in preparation for months of no input.


it never rains in California but man it pours
 

DocTim420

The Doctor is OUT and has moved on...
that chart isn't showing june as being the highest input month. that's when input stops so they want it as full as possible in preparation for months of no input.


it never rains in California but man it pours

Actually, as I read the graph--starting around June the lake is at the "normal" max level. And from personal experience, snow can still on the ground in the mountains as late as May/June with nice flowing streams/rivers---great for trout fishing! But this year is probably the exception, so it probably is anyone's guess.
 
C

CheifnBud2

man, it feels good to be out of the drought. But here come the floods.
 

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