This is the biggest El Niño on record, and a killer La Niña is coming

[Robrites]

One year after California’s worst snowpack ever, levels are back to 87% of normal

One year after California’s worst snowpack ever, levels are back to 87% of normal

March 30, 2016

California's snowpack typically peaks around April 1. Last year, the amount of water contained in the snowpack on that date was the lowest ever recorded. In response, Gov. Jerry Brown imposed the first mandatory drought restrictions on urban water use in California's history. After a year of conservation and a much-anticipated El Niño, how are we doing?

Drought Relief

After heavy March rains, certain areas of the Sierra Nevada have gotten some drought relief, but 55% of California remains in extreme or exceptional drought.



Snowpack Growth

California’s reservoirs are filled by precipitation and the slow melting of the state’s snowpack. On April 1, 2015, the snowpack was at just 5% of average for the day. This year, ​satellite images show that the Sierra Nevada snowpack is visibly improved. After a stormy March, the water contained in the statewide snowpack is 87% of normal for March 30 – much better than a year ago, but still slightly below average.



Reservoirs

California stores waters in its reservoirs until it is needed. Getting a healthy dose of winter weather is important, partially because ran and runoff from the snowpack feed the reservoirs. Some reservoirs in Northern California have benefited from recent storms; in some cases officials have even had to release water to avoid potential flooding. But many reservoirs in Southern California remain at below-average levels.
http://graphics.latimes.com/california-snowpack-2016/

 

[Robrites]

Powerful winds are headed for the Southland

Powerful winds are headed for the Southland

Powerful winds are expected to slam into the Southland starting Friday afternoon and continue throughout the weekend, forecasters said.

A National Weather Service wind advisory will be in effect for the region starting at 2 p.m., said Stuart Seto, a weather specialist for the National Weather Service in Oxnard.

The Antelope Valley is expected to be particularly hard hit, with winds topping off at 45 mph, blowing sand and dust that could restrict visibility, said Seto. Gusts up to 50 miles an hour could hit the region Friday night.


“The blowing dust and sand is always bad for vehicles in that area,” Seto said.

Strong cross winds, especially through and below canyons and passes, are expected to make driving difficult, particularly along Interstate 5, according to the weather service.

Antelope Valley residents should put away their lawn furniture and anything that could be blown around, and they should be careful parking beside trees, Seto said.

The powerful gusts, Seto said, will be the result of a low-pressure system moving into the region that also will cool temperatures after the heat wave earlier this week.

Mountainous areas in Los Angeles, Ventura and Santa Barbara counties also are expected to have a gusty few days, according to the weather service.
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-powerful-winds-20160422-story.html#nt=oft12aH-1gp2

 

[DuskrayTroubador]

Robrites, I nominate you for the position of official ICMAG weatherman.

Did you study geography or geology?

 

[Robrites]

Robrites, I nominate you for the position of official ICMAG weatherman.

Did you study geography or geology?

Thanks and no. lol

Lots of rain tonight.

 

[FoothillFarming]

I think it's official. Most reservoirs are full enough where people can stop panicking. I swear I heard somebody this time last year say Fulsom Lake was drained by pot farmers, and will take a century to refill........ yea, or four months.......been letting water out since Feb........and most of the water goes to hydro electric............


I have a weather station at my house that reports to a major weather platform. Just since March 1st, my area has received 13" of rain. That is well over half an entire years rain, in two months.

Global weather changes are happening, but lets not get hysterical right?

 

[FoothillFarming]

 

[Robrites]

View Image

Great progress since last year and more rain on the way!

 

[Robrites]

Why did El Niño miss SoCal? It's complicated, National Weather Service says

Why did El Niño miss SoCal? It's complicated, National Weather Service says

A mix of rising global temperatures, mysteriously warmed waters off Baja California and unusually far-reaching storms in the western Pacific Ocean conspired to block this year’s El Niño storms from hitting Southern California, the National Weather Service said this week.

Despite plenty of indicators suggesting that the 2015-16 El Niño rains would be as strong -- if not stronger -- than previous Southland El Niños, heavy precipitation failed to materialize. Instead, the storms flowed north from the Bay Area to Washington, drenching the Northern Sierra Nevada and refilling some of the state’s biggest reservoirs.

In recapping this year’s El Niño phenomena -- the first since the winter of 1997-98 -- the National Weather Service said the pattern “flipped” from prior El Niños that left the Northwest relatively parched and the Southwest soaking wet.

Although experts anticipated that February would be the wettest month of the year for Southern California, because of El Niño's influence, it was actually the driest in 30 years.

Data suggests this was due in part to "the blob," an unrelated warming of the waters along the North American West Coast from Alaska south to the Baja California Peninsula. The warmer waters off Baja may have helped "enhance" a high pressure ridge that stretched up to California, diverting incoming storms to the north, the weather service said.

Experts suggested also that rising global temperatures may have affected the jet stream over the Pacific, which further helped to steer incoming storms north toward the Bay Area and beyond, the weather service said.

"It's important not to assume that El Niño events of the future will behave the same," the report stated. "But there is much to learn about how changing background conditions impact such atmospheric [conditions] ... through the remainder of this century."

The National Weather Service said that as El Niño continues to weaken, it appears that it will soon make way for its counterpart, La Niña, which could bring a drier than average winter.

 

[Robrites]

El Niño is over – but it leaves nearly 100 million people short of food

El Niño is over – but it leaves nearly 100 million people short of food

Scientists say sea temperatures are back to normal, but from southern Africa to southern Asia, droughts and heatwaves have left a trail of devastation

The strongest El Niño in 35 years which has seen long droughts, scorching temperatures, water shortages and flooding around the world is officially over. But the consequences of a second year of extreme weather will be seen for many more months in food shortages for nearly 100 million people, the loss of income for millions of poor farmers and higher prices in cities, say the UN and leading meteorologists.

According to Australian and US government scientists, sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, which warm significantly every few years, have cooled to normal levels and are unlikely to rise again this year. This marks the end of an 18-month global weather hiatus which has created social and ecological turmoil in Asia, Africa and Latin America.

Drought and rising temperatures 'leaves 36m people across Africa facing hunger'

“There is little chance of [sea surface temperatures] returning to El Niño levels, in which case mid-May will mark the end of the 2015–16 El Niño,” said an Australian government spokesman.

However, scientists say a reverse effect “La Niña” phenomenon is possible. This would see temperatures fall below normal in the Pacific equatorial waters, bringing heavier rains, floods and much cooler temperatures to many countries.

Overstretched humanitarian groups have warned that the extreme conditions will last for many more months. Concern is mounting in southern Africa, where 50 million people are expected by the UN’s World Food programme to need help with food supplies in the coming nine months.

Some of the most extreme weather has been felt across southern Asia in the last nine months, where countries including India, the Philippines, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Indonesia have all experienced their worst droughts and most intense heatwaves in decades.

According to US meteorologists at Accuweather, highest ever temperatures have been recorded in Thailand at 44.6C (112.3F), Cambodia at 42.6C (108.7F), Laos at 42.3C (108.1F) and the Maldives at 34.9C (94.8F). Last week India broke the world record, with a temperature of 51C (123.8F) recorded in Rajasthan.

“Millions of families are living in El Niño’s devastating path of extreme conditions. Children, especially, face hunger, disease and futures shorn of the opportunities provided by education. Countries most affected by El Niño are also bearing the brunt of climate change, and it’s the most vulnerable and impoverished communities that will continue to be the hardest hit,” said Tanya Steele, interim CEO of Save the Children.

http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/may/30/el-nino-is-over-but-it-leaves-nearly-100-million-people-short-of-food?CMP=share_btn_tw

 

[Robrites]

Temperatures set to top 120 degrees as monster heat wave hits Southern California

Temperatures set to top 120 degrees as monster heat wave hits Southern California

The most severe heat wave so far this year is bearing down in Southern California, with temperatures likely to top 120 degrees.

So how hot will it get?

Temperatures in downtown Los Angeles are expected to climb from the mid-80s Saturday to the mid-90s by Sunday, while triple-digit temperatures are on tap for the valleys.

But it’s Monday, the first day of summer, that is expected to be the hottest. The looming heat has prompted the National Weather Service to issue excessive-heat watches for L.A., the valleys and mountains Monday.

“It will be very hot,” said Joe Sirard, a meteorologist with the service. “People should limit their time outside during the day.”

Here are some predicted high temperatures Monday from the National Weather Service:

Palm Springs: 121

Los Angeles: 100

San Bernardino: 110

Santa Ana: 98

Palmdale: 106


https://twitter.com/NWSSanDiego/status/744246053902266368

What are the health and safety concerns?

Dangerous, heat-related illnesses such as heat stroke are possible, the weather service said, especially among those who plan on spending Monday outdoors or people without access to air conditioning.

Forecasters warned against leaving people or pets in enclosed vehicles — even for a short period of time.

Power outages are possible as well, the weather service said.

Other agencies have also issued warnings against the heat. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommended frequent breaks in shaded or air conditioned areas.

The Los Angeles County Public Health Department said it plans to issue a heat alert Sunday through Tuesday, when temperatures are expected to start to decline.


https://twitter.com/NWSSanDiego/status/744167108297129984
https://twitter.com/shelbygrad/status/744215732225880064

Why is that happening?

The blistering heat is the result of an upper-level ridge of high pressure that is building slowly over Southern California. Sirard said the system should start to weaken by Tuesday and temperatures should start to drop.

 

[Andyo]

guage it over 1000 years better

guage it over 1000 years better

Its a planet doesnt know us humans.
nothing to do with god
Itll sought us out though lol interfering ****s humans are!

like chernobyl
green and uncontaminated buy self important humans.A

 

[oldchuck]

It's hot in the east too although not nearly as bad as out there. 90 today and tomorrow then cooling off to normal summer.

 

[FoothillFarming]

I think the title of this thread, like most weather predictions these days, fell flat on it's face. Funny, you never hear about normal weather. It's always alerts on my phone telling me a hundred year heat wave is coming through, then normal summer temps....sigh.

 

[Robrites]

'The blob,' a Pacific warm-water mass that caused weather havoc, is back

'The blob,' a Pacific warm-water mass that caused weather havoc, is back

"The blob" — a havoc-wreaking oceanic phenomenon, not the classic movie monster — is back. In fact, it never really went away.

The mass of warm ocean water, which got its moniker from meteorologists, was believed to have dissipated, along with its disastrous effects on ocean ecosystems.

But it has simply receded to deeper waters, CBC News reported this week.

The unusually warm water conditions result in less nutrient-dense water, which causes ripple effects throughout the food chain. It's believed to be behind the deaths of young sea lions in southern California and die-offs of starving sea birds along the Oregon and Washington coasts.

The warm blob was also linked to unusual weather patterns on land.

It's likely behind the West Coast's warm winters and record-low snowpack levels in 2014 and 2015, oceanographers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans found.

And Dennis Hartmann, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington, suggested it might have pushed cold, wet air east, causing the East Coast's "polar vortex" winters that blanketed cities in record snowfalls.

In fact, NOAA researchers found, the blob has had a greater effect on conditions than El Niño, a better-known warming effect in the ocean and atmosphere.

The blob might yet be on the way out. The cooling effect of La Niña might be enough to bring ocean temperatures back to normal levels, the CBC reported.

The phenomenon doesn't appear to be a result of global warming, said Nick Bond, the meteorologist who first coined its nickname. But, he said in a UW news release, it might offer a glimpse of the future.

"This is a taste of what the ocean will be like in future decades," Bond said. "It wasn't caused by global warming, but it's producing conditions that we think are going to be more common with global warming."

 

[Sforza]

A mix of rising global temperatures, mysteriously warmed waters off Baja California and unusually far-reaching storms in the western Pacific Ocean conspired to block this year’s El Niño storms from hitting Southern California, the National Weather Service said this week.

Despite plenty of indicators suggesting that the 2015-16 El Niño rains would be as strong -- if not stronger -- than previous Southland El Niños, heavy precipitation failed to materialize. Instead, the storms flowed north from the Bay Area to Washington, drenching the Northern Sierra Nevada and refilling some of the state’s biggest reservoirs.

In recapping this year’s El Niño phenomena -- the first since the winter of 1997-98 -- the National Weather Service said the pattern “flipped” from prior El Niños that left the Northwest relatively parched and the Southwest soaking wet.

Although experts anticipated that February would be the wettest month of the year for Southern California, because of El Niño's influence, it was actually the driest in 30 years.

Data suggests this was due in part to "the blob," an unrelated warming of the waters along the North American West Coast from Alaska south to the Baja California Peninsula. The warmer waters off Baja may have helped "enhance" a high pressure ridge that stretched up to California, diverting incoming storms to the north, the weather service said.

Experts suggested also that rising global temperatures may have affected the jet stream over the Pacific, which further helped to steer incoming storms north toward the Bay Area and beyond, the weather service said.

"It's important not to assume that El Niño events of the future will behave the same," the report stated. "But there is much to learn about how changing background conditions impact such atmospheric [conditions] ... through the remainder of this century."

The National Weather Service said that as El Niño continues to weaken, it appears that it will soon make way for its counterpart, La Niña, which could bring a drier than average winter.

Did you ever notice that Meteorologists, weather experts, are far better at explaining why something happened, after it happens, than they are predicting what is going to happen?

They have a hard time predicting the weather five days, five weeks, five months, and five years from now. They are pretty good at predicting five hours from now, I will admit. But they are very certain what the weather is going to be like fifty years from now, when they and most of us are not going to be around to call them on it.

Fifty years from now there will be articles telling us why the Meteorologists got global warming wrong, as the population suffers through short summers and brutally cold winters. There will be some factor that was unknown to the current scientists that future scientists will figure out, once it becomes even more obvious that the models used today do not match what is actually happening.

I think today's scientists are awfully smart and know a great deal, but I don't think that they are nearly as certain as they claim to be that global warming is caused by man or that it is necessarily going to be as bad as they predict. I don't think the scientists are evil, but I think that they think that if they told us the truth, we wouldn't do jack shit, so they exaggerate to use fear to get people to do things that they wouldn't do, like spend more money and do with less convenience and freedom, if we weren't scared. They think that the ends justifies the means.

I think they feel that if global warming is caused by man and is going to be very bad for humanity, that even if there is just a 5% chance of that happening, it is still worth making the changes need to keep less CO2 from going into the atmosphere. And even if there is no global warming caused by man, most of the scientists think that we should not be drilling for oil or mining for coal anyway, since it is generally hard on the environment, so doing away with these things or at least cutting way back on them is good idea with or without human caused global warming.

I was in college back when they declared the first Earth Day and the Whole Earth Catalog was the coolest thing. No one was worried about global warming, but the ecologists hated the coal miners and oil companies anyway.

 

[oldchuck]

You, sir, are an optimist. And, I fear, seriously myopic. The evidence is clear even to my unscientific mind.

 

[Robrites]

Northern California is seeing two or three times more rain than normal. So why is Sou

Northern California is seeing two or three times more rain than normal. So why is Sou

Northern California is seeing two or three times more rain than normal. So why is Southern California so dry?


As the state enters its sixth year of drought, Northern California is seeing some significant relief thanks to a series of powerful storms, while Southern California remains mired in record dry conditions.

Despite a rainstorm set to hit the Southland this week, the region continues to face an unprecedented lack of precipitation, recording only 60% of average rainfall this month. By contrast, communities from the Bay Area north to the Oregon border have recorded 200% to 300% of the average this month, according to the National Weather Service.

It’s a pattern Californians saw last winter, when the much-hyped El Niño phenomenon was expected to soak Southern California but instead steered north, blanketing the northern Sierra Nevada in snow and leaving Angelenos and their neighbors in the dust.

“We can only hope as the winter progresses we’ll get the rains to go farther south,” said Reginald Kennedy, a National Weather Service hydrologist. “Nothing in the climate forecast wants to tip its hat.”

Rain and snow in Northern California are considered essential to easing the drought because the state’s major networks of dams and reservoirs are located there, providing water to many other parts of the state. While rain in Southern California is also important, much of it flows into storm drains and into the ocean.

Since Oct. 1, the start of the water year — which forecasters use to measure annual precipitation — cities and mountain communities from the Bay Area to the Oregon border have been drenched by an atmospheric river of tropical storms. It’s rained more than 18 inches this month in Gasquet, a rural community in Del Norte County, and 12 inches in Crescent City, Kennedy said.

The rainfall was enough that the U.S. Drought Monitor considered the northwest corner of California, or about 7% of the state, to be in normal condition instead of “abnormally dry” or worse. That much of California has not been considered normal since March 2013.

Last year the El Niño story was flipped on its head from what was expected. — Doug Carlson, spokesman, Dept. of Water Resources

The Drought Monitor, however, warned that much more rain and snow will be needed in the winter “to undo the far-reaching impacts of the ongoing ...drought.”

“It’s a nice start. We’re pleased to see that some of the reservoirs are holding their own in the northern half of the state,” added Doug Carlson, a spokesman with the state Department of Water Resources. “But if you get to the southern part of the San Joaquin Valley, they’re only at 7%.”

More rain would help California’s water supply issues. Over the last two years, Californians significantly reduced water consumption by ripping out lawns, buying water-efficient appliances and taking shorter showers, among other things. But in recent months, water conservation efforts have slipped as the state eased water restrictions.

Statewide, people in cities and towns cut their water use by just 17.7% in August compared with the same month in 2013. In August 2015, Californians reduced their consumption by 27%, beating the target of a 25% reduction set by Gov. Jerry Brown.

More storms are forecast for the northern half of the state with only hours-long breaks in between through the beginning of November, Kennedy said.

the rest

 

[Robrites]

7.8" of rain approaching October record of 8.41" in 1994

7.8" of rain approaching October record of 8.41" in 1994

The umbrellas are back in force as Portlanders shelter themselves from what could soon be the wettest October on record.

But there's a bit to go.

This month's 7.8 inches of rain, as of 5 a.m. Thursday, marks the third-wettest October since record-keeping began at Portland International Airport, said Colby Neuman, National Weather Service meteorologist. The total approaches the 8.04 inches in 1947 and the record of 8.41 inches in 1994, he said.

The airport saw more than two-thirds of an inch Wednesday, according to a climatological report, and forecasters have called for a tenth to a quarter inch Thursday.

"It's looking like the next decent threat is probably Saturday morning, which could push us on top or keep us just shy," he said. There's also a chance of rain on Sunday, but that weather system could also pass the metro area to the south, he said.

Weekend rain will begin as a front stalled off the Oregon coast begins to move inland Saturday, according to the weather service's online forecast discussion.

Still, this month's total is half of the wettest month ever in the metro area: December 2015. Remember that? Within a 31-day period, 15.24 inches fell.

Since Jan. 1, the PDX weather station has recorded 31.28 inches compared with 18.06 this time last year, according to the climatological report. The wettest full year, 1996, brought in 63.20 inches at the airport.
http://www.oregonlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2016/10/rainfall_totals_approaching_mo.html

 

[Robrites]

Feds say 25% of California is drought-free, but state experts are still cautious

Feds say 25% of California is drought-free, but state experts are still cautious

A rainy October in Northern California has lifted about a quarter of the state out of drought conditions, the U.S. Drought Monitor reported Thursday.

It’s the rosiest picture released by federal officials since the spring of 2013, when about 64% of the state was considered to be in “moderate drought” — or worse.

The rains so far this fall have given some weather watchers reason for optimism as California braces for a potential sixth year of drought.

But much of Central and Southern California remain locked in what the drought monitor calls “exceptional or extreme drought.” About 43% of the state has been classified as such for at least the last three months.

Mike Anderson, the state’s climatologist, said California has enjoyed “a good start to the water year,” which began Oct. 1, but cautioned that it is still early.

“We really need to wait until we get into the main part of our wet season” to assess whether how much the drought has been eased, Anderson said.

The U.S. Drought Monitor relies heavily on precipitation levels and soil moisture to assess conditions, state water officials said. For that reason, an unusually wet October, such as the one Northern California just experienced, would show some areas as having escaped drought.

Anderson pointed out that one of the most important indicators of the health of the state’s hydrology is the Sierra Nevada snowpack, which officials don’t begin measuring until December.

The State Water Resources Control Board continues to call for water conservation. Max Gomberg, the board’s climate and conservation manager, said he remains concerned about areas of the state still suffering through dry conditions.

“We’ve been in drought for five years now,” he added. “We’ve lost tens of millions of trees, we’ve had … a whole host of … devastating impacts. That doesn’t go away overnight.

 

[Gry]

By the time of the first earth day Exxon was quite aware of global warming. The decision had been made, it would lie to it's shareholder's and the public about it. They hired the same folks that big tobacco used to deny that tobacco caused cancer to green wash.

Exxon-Mobil has funneled about $16 million between 1998 and 2005 to a network of ideological and advocacy organizations that manufacture un-certainty on the issue.
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