Science Fiction does not become Science Fact no matter how loud or long you're going to yell it
fiction turns to fact faster & faster these days. my grandparents went from horse & buggy to watching man walk on the moon. "does not became"...too late!
You CAN judge the MAGAts by their lack of cover
- Thread starter Fred Sanford
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fiction turns to fact faster & faster these days. my grandparents went from horse & buggy to watching man walk on the moon. "does not became"...too late!
let's see...satellites and cell phones to name a couple of things that were predicted in sci fi...Science Fiction does not become Science Fact no matter how loud or long you're going to yell it
St. Phatty
Active member
how soon before Trump goes to a rally like event ?
the press conference was sort of that, but the reporters were smart enough to distance themselves - from Trump.
I would not be surprised if Trump is taking chloroquine preventively. just not talking about it. in small doses. without the bleach injection.
0.6% does not equal 0%
It is greater than zero as is 0.0001
Perhaps you are thinking of -0.6
https://www.swisslinx.com/post/2020-4/how-is-switzerland-responding-to-covid-19
WHO Report;
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
The Joint Mission consisted of 25 national and international experts from China, Germany,
Japan, Korea, Nigeria, Russia, Singapore, the United States of America and the World Health
Organization (WHO).
Information on the epidemic was notified to WHO on 3 January, and whole genome sequences of the COVID-19 virus were shared with WHO on 10 January.
On 30 December 2019, three bronchoalveolar lavage samples were collected from a patient
with pneumonia of unknown etiology – a surveillance definition established following the
SARS outbreak of 2002-2003 – in Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital. Real-time PCR (RT-PCR) assays
on these samples were positive for pan-Betacoronavirus. Using Illumina and nanopore
sequencing, the whole genome sequences of the virus were acquired. Bioinformatic
analyses indicated that the virus had features typical of the coronavirus family and belonged
to the Betacoronavirus 2B lineage. Alignment of the full-length genome sequence of the
COVID-19 virus and other available genomes of Betacoronavirus showed the closest
relationship was with the bat SARS-like coronavirus strain BatCov RaTG13, identity 96%.
Virus isolation was conducted with various cell lines, such as human airway epithelial cells,
Vero E6, and Huh-7. Cytopathic effects (CPE) were observed 96 hours after inoculation.
Typical crown-like particles were observed under transmission electron microscope (TEM)
with negative staining.
you right i was confused i should have said less then 1% not less then 0% brain fart. but in fact the latest studies indicate even less we are down to something like 0.3% depending which serology study you look at. but to me when its less then 100 to 1 you have to treat it differently then if it's 3.2% mortality rate.
edited to add:
https://swisscows.ch/web?query=who+says+china+wont+let+it+join+investigation
edited to add:
https://swisscows.ch/web?query=who+says+china+wont+let+it+join+investigation
There is something fishy from the start which they are not revealing. I'm pretty sure it involves the working relationship with the North C lab and Wuhan lab.
There were no bats at the market. [apparently]
Hi all hard to believe that a thread this idiotic gained any traction at all guess there are alot of morons here...
Just wanted to let u know that in Nov when Trump wins his 2nd term in a landslide I am going to mock you and laugh in your face while you throw a fit and cry...I am going to do this because you deserve nothing less
Just wanted to let u know that in Nov when Trump wins his 2nd term in a landslide I am going to mock you and laugh in your face while you throw a fit and cry...I am going to do this because you deserve nothing less
White Beard
Active member
I hope this ends up sounding like the serious response I want it to be.
I grew up when polio was all the rage; tetanus, tuberculosis, whooping cough, measles - they killed a lot of people, blinded and crippled many more. Anthrax, cholera, smallpox, typhoid, yellow fever, scarlet fever - perhaps an infinitesimal number of infected developed immunity to these , but the many who died rendered the survivors invisible.
As a kid, I had mumps, I had measles, I had chicken pox. My eyes suffered, but I didn’t die. That’s how it worked: you got sick, and either you died or you didn’t.
Jump forward several decades, to when I was doing deep-dive research on immunization, vaccines, herd immunity, so forth: as a father-to-be, I considered it an obligation. You may not know this, but a child is born without any functional immunities: their immune systems are jump-started by the immunities carried by the mother; as the child grows, exposure to the environment ‘tunes’ that initial ‘set’ of pre-loaded antibodies - just as you say. I came out of childhood with a strong and robust immune system, and even in my 50s & 60, thru today, I rarely get sick at all, have not had the flu in decades, never had a flu shot.
Okay so far?
The environment in which we live, and which tunes our immunities, is full of *common* infectious agents, and a normal part of growing up then was learning how to take care of cuts, scrapes, punctures, fevers, to manage infections so we wouldn’t lose limbs when things went septic.
COMMON things. Common viruses, common bacteria, waves of occasional germs that had been through before. Where the scheme breaks down is when a new pathogen hits the scene, a NEW pathogen, one your mother was never exposed to before you, that her mother was never exposed to, and her mother...the *new* pathogen hits the system and can’t find the page for that virus, so it has to start trying to decode it...while not dying first.
That’s the situation we’re in now: our immune systems don’t have an existing response stem to viruses and microbes we’ve never encountered. That’s “WE” in the broadest possible terms.
The impulse to lean into herd immunity in situations like this is highly dangerous, because in a high-contagion scenario, that approach could lead to 20% or more of the population responding by dying, not by building an immunity; and such an immunity, fresh-built, will have to go through the laborious decoding and reprogramming *again* for every unique strain or mutation...until it builds up a large enough backlog to be prepared for variations.
By that point, the virus is no longer ‘new’: generations have lived and died and the survivors have passed along the records, mother to child. THAT is how herd immunity is achieved. It has a high success rate because the process only cares about survivors - only they pass that inheritance to succeeding generations.
Generations. If we go all-in for herd immunity, we could genuinely no shit see a large portion of humanity die...which is cool if you don’t mind one in three dying worldwide...and make no mistake, that one-in-three will be for the working populace: the masters will more likely see one in six die, due to better medical options (#PriceTag) and to *more effective isolation* than the servant classes can get away with.
Your view on advanced immunodeficiency (what you describe) occurring as a result of “weeks” of isolation is unrealistic. Such a degeneration would require practically a phobic response to biology in general, in the form of a sterile bubble, and would take years. Yes, there are people who live in sterile environments, often called - and frequently *are* - actual bubbles; but they are in them because they have no immune system, or they have a malfunctioning immune system. Being in those sterile environments did not CREATE their immune deficiencies. The Biodome project participants did not get sick and die when they emerged from their closed habitat; astronauts returning from extended missions off-planet don’t sicken and die when they emerge from their re-entry vehicles.
There is simply no way that your scenario plays out as you say - not that I can see.
On the masks: do you know what ‘asymptomatic carrier’ signifies? Do you know the story of “Typhoid Mary”? Have you read up on the history on *any* major pandemic or epidemic? If you have, then you’ve learned that celebrating the END of such an episode typically leads to another, larger, more devastating round of the disease.
So, if you would, explain to me how acting like EVERYONE is healthy and NO-ONE is sick works toward toward the control of ANY disease at a time when confirmed cases continue to rise, death rates continue to rise, when the contagion index goes from 3 (contagious a s measles) to 6 (contagious as C-19) - that is, when each infectious individual spreads it to SIX other people, not just THREE.
So everyone knows, measles (0=3) is considered *quite* contagious - which is why measles outbreaks *always* hit the news.
...as you so effectively demonstrate here
This is confusing .. probably cause you're not that smart so your wording is really piss poor ..
So by reading this literally it basically says that if you protest the spreading of covid 19 then soy boy beta males will think you look like Gary Busey,...right ?
i don't think i said anything that goes against any of the above, im not saying never wear a mask, im saying maintain distance and wear the mask when distance can't be maintained. but dont wear a mask when not needed. we still have to keep venerable people at home, but the rest need to get back to some kind of life again. use masks when social distancing can't be maintained. think i said that right at the start.
here in Switzerland the gov has already re opened garden and hobby centers, massage therapists and hairdressers, the schools are opening on the 11th for half sized classes, elderly and vunerable are still recomended to stay in quarantine. he rest are supposed to get back to work while maintaining distance and wearing masks when we can't, like in the train. i assume they know more then me, they have their own specialists and all seven presidents have to agree on steps. theydo reserve the right to step things back again if there should be a sudden surge of deaths. only time will tell i guess. but you also have to consider the deaths caused by coontinueing the lockdown. glad it's not my call to make.
your point about it taking a while for the imune system to get weakened is a good point. but when im walking around in the fresh air a mask is stupid imo.
anyway, do you remember swine flue and bird flue, they just died away and it didnt take generations.
i have been taking this thing very seriously, in the end being wrong is too risky, but i will re evaluate as new information comes out
White Beard
Active member
I’d love to give this a more complete treatment, but it’s simply not worth the time and effort to talk sense to the completely buffaloed.
But some basic facts are always good to review:
We - YOU - can’t “include everyone that has it or did have it”.
Do you know why? Because we have NO IDEA HOW MANY THAT MIGHT BE. Simple, really: wed only have that number if WE TESTED EVERYBODY AT THE SAME TIME - and then adjusted those numbers as more tested positive, and kept doing that.
We haven’t done that. We haven’t done anything LIKE that. Because we can’t. We don’t have the tests, the personnel, the leadership, the organization to do such a thing - or, y’know, we just don’t care to.
Much more politically effective to claim the real numbers are “less than zero!” Facts always fuck up a good con.
You’re extrapolating wildly on those serological assays: clusters in small locales, no selection for statistical ‘quality’ or representation - they aren’t *studies* - not driven by design or intention, and assay, an incidental sampling. Nothing wrong with that, nothing at all: but it only tells us ONE thing, and that is that the virus has spread FAR WIDER than even the gloomiest estimates. You can’t extrapolate from those sets of numbers to describe the immunological state of a a population of MILLIONS. However indicative they might be, they’re more like warning lights than cause for rejoicing.
Consider: the number of confirmed covid cases in the US is currently ONE THIRD of the world total, and the US accounts for HALF of all newly confirmed Covid cases worldwide.
Of that number, fatalities account for 5.8% - that is, 5.8(8)% of all *confirmed* US Covid cases have died, using this evening’s numbers.
That rate has been rising for weeks, from 1.4% when I first worked it out; it has not gone down. For context, the global fatality rate for Covid patients is 7%...up from 3.8% in mid-March when I started checking it daily.
If we assume a US population of 340,000,000 (census year estimate), and we assume 20% infection, that’s 68,000,000 people. If that rate of mortality doesn’t rise, it points to 3,998,400 deaths. From Covid directly, and from COVID with co-morbidities. If OTOH we reach the current world rate of 7%, and that turns into 4,760,000 dead people.
Forensic science will be able to examine the records, the cases, the tests, and the final numbers will get clarified. Until then, the *best* we can do is make sure WHICH case, which tests, which outcomes. So, we tag them for later analysis, we flag them - like #COVID19. You know, like someone who thought about it might do.
The enlarged portion of your pulled quote IS, in fact, a talking point, a political talking point, and a talking point that feeds the chaos by inducing alarm. That part is exactly a talking point, a right-wing talking point and it is in use all over the place right now. Still pretty new, though.
I wrote above about this exactly: let me be more clear about exactly how Covid kills.
This quote is from AL.com, an Alabama website, in response to the question, “how does Covid kill you?”; the author claims to be a doctor of medicine at University of Alabama.
The link is easy to find, just paste the question into a search engine (I use duck duck go):
When the lungs are damaged and fill with fluid, there’s a name for *that*: the name is ‘pneumonia’. That’s what pneumonia *IS*.
Is that the time to quarrel over whether the patient’s incipient respiratory condition was the proximal cause of the lungs filling, and *NOT* the confirmed C-19 infection? FUCK NO IT’S NOT. There are patients who need that gurney, that ventilator AS FAST AS POSSIBLE, and that’s a question for forensics, When the data is largely in - not for a battlefield medic (I know some dislike the suggestion that there’s anything going on at all, but never mind) Who needs to shift immediately from generating that set of data to generating a new one for the suffering human being before them.
My apologies, Gaius - I am not angry with you: as I say, that hot talking point has been front and center increasingly here in the US, and I’m angry about IT, and there’s been much in the way, I hop e you’ll pardon me for that, and not hold it against me.
As I sit here, I find I just can’t grasp how someone can think a negative death rate makes any kind of sense, and at the same time That same person can imagine that tagging things and sorting them later is some diabolical fucking plot.
Just like I just can’t grasp how intelligent, generous, gracious people can also be viciously and thoughtlessly racist.
5 says a swamp thing pretends I’m calling someone a racist with that: I’m saying, it’s THAT big a gap for me. I see it exists, but I just don’t get *how*, or something...
I’m sure you care deeply about people dying. Points for cutting and pasting. Would another 107 million bodies arouse your notice? That’s 7% of 20% of the world population accurate to a few thousand a couple of minutes ago.
The math is really simple. Even I can do it.
White Beard
Active member
Thank you for the gracious reply. I am spent, done for today. Again, sorry my anger over a broken (IMO) point came out the way it did.
I don’t wear a mask, though there are five others here. When I’m out for a walk, i don’t wear a mask. I know the virus isn’t lurking in the bushes...but I steer clear of neighbors. They’re all nice enough, but across the street is just fine for now. When I go “to” places, I wear mask and gloves.
Pretty sure that swine flu and bird flu both being influenza viruses, we were able to “use the influenza database” in creating proper immune response. Back to what I was saying about novel vs familiar pathogens.
I’m glad to see you posting more, you’ve been missed.
We don't support those that disgrace Our Capital. Sorry.
What is a Soy Boy? Are those the people that eat soy to support the American farmers that don't send all of their crop to China? Farmers supporting socialist China and getting US subsidies... say it ain't so!
I raise pork, I'm sure you would love my sausage.
White Beard: You deserve a beer, a fat joint and a slab of bacon. You can keep the beer but I'll share the others with you anytime!
herd immunity need not be generational. It can occur with the current population.
I see you're in the totolitarian state of Michigan.That's some governor you have there. Really power drunk and stupid a lethal combination.Not at all surprised she call's herself a liberal democrat.You can buy booze and get shitfaced but buy paint to paint your house you face jail time. Let your kids out in your own yard she'll get you death...
Nevermind that she has no Constitutional athority to do it and could potentially face federal prosecution and be forced to resign.
Those damn scumbag's wanting to get back to work to feed their family...How fucking dare they not be petrified of a little flu and risk exposure to themselves and others in the name of not starving.Just shameful.Got a good friend in Hope Michigan she's really bleeding heart liberal.Even she thinks the governor has gotten out of hand and she won't squash a mosquito on her arm she'll try and find a humane way to get it to stop sucking her blood...
I have no personal opinion on the protests I can see both sides.
Now friend go find a mirror and look in it.That is a soy boy
Not all viruses are the same. You can’t factually say this one will just go away without more evidence.
I live 500’ off the road in the middle of 20 acres. I wear a mask when I interact with other people. Of course I don’t need one at home. That’s just common sense.
Sure we can open with caution. Even our essential workers aren’t being protected now. How can we expect caution? We have fool hardy leadership.
i realize that a lot of the info out there is agenda driven. the less then 0 was a mistake in my mind because of the way you can write it 0.6 was thinking fractions, i freely admit the mistake.
do you seriously expect nearly 4 million deaths in the states?
how can you poopoo serology studies when its the only way to calculate the true rate of infection in the population? i see no flaw in the maths, if way more have it then previously thought it means the mortality is lower then thought.
like i said even the swiss government adviser on corona to the presidents agreed that serology studies are pointing to a way lower mortality rate then was first thought.
its really hard to talk to Americans at the moment, everyone seems to be more focused on political sides then just discussing and exploring the subject. if you happen to think 1 thing the trump rambeled about you are assumed to be a trump sycophant and vice versa. makes holding a conversation quite unpleasent.
Should we pass out infected blankets? Would you accept one? Putting trump aside. This has nothing to do with trump actually, except that he is peddling unproven remedies with very little knowledge of which he speaks. Other than being president, he’s just another know nothing dumb shit.
Herd immunity did not work for the Indians. They died. That’s just wishful thinking.
Herd immunity did not work for the Indians. They died. That’s just wishful thinking.
