Wholesale pot prices plummet. Now there starting to get better

[Nondual]

So price is on a decline because of supply (dank or otherwise).

I had read awhile back that some larger clubs got together and decided to do some price fixing to keep prices down on their end then not really pass any savings along. Pretty sure it was on this site but can't remember who said it.

 

[whadeezlrg]

fwiw I fully support people that have a love for ganj that migrate to cali for the cannabis freedoms that we enjoy, I get that totally...I dont think anyone should ever get locked up for herb....my only point really is that if more people dialed in a small scale grow before jumpin in to a max-profit op to learn the ropes and get things dialed in we would have not been dealing with as massive of a price shift...if quality had been more stable prices would have been more stable as well even though supply still rises...the huge variation in available quality dictates a necessary difference in price in order to set levels of quality apart....unfortunately since guys are taking next to nothing for their sub-par that adversely affects the price of the true chronoisseur quality that is available...a totem pole is only so long, as long as the bottom keeps getting driven into the ground the top will continue to get lower

 

[Hydrosun]

I had read awhile back that some larger clubs got together and decided to do some price fixing to keep prices down on their end then not really pass any savings along. Pretty sure it was on this site but can't remember who said it.

The cannabis market is WAY TOO big to price fix the entire market. I am sure there are some little OPEC wannabes running dispensaries (looking at you ASA "Movement Leaders"), but if they try to low ball good growers the get told to go fuck right off. There are lots of posts to this effect.

Good middlemen / brokers are worth their fee, especially if a grower must otherwise deal with low balling collusion happy jerk offs.

 

[weeddaddy50]

Skull

Skull

I hear ya....I have meet at aleast 6 people from NY or New Jersery.....they started out as clients & patients....they have asked me for patients doctors recommendations to make a 99 plant grow happen........My jaw just about dropped.....I was like are your serious???? the guy who has never grown before is erecting a 5000 ft greenhouse...and starting with 99 plants...

Since I have a small growers collective....I guess they thought it was cool to just ask me for those DR.....At first I tried to educate them.....after about 30 minutes.....I knew it did not matter what I said.....So I told them....look I have to get as far away from you as I can.....You are doing everything wrong and will get busted.....please lose my number.....

One is already busted....and they have not even started growing.........."chit man move to cali grow 99 plants get 5 lbs a plant at 2k a unit....make a million in 1 year".....man its easy.

This is accurate. The green rush played a role and a lot of those people are bailing cuz they failed!!!!! They thought it was easy to grow quality....it is not!

 

[weeddaddy50]

I am seeing the same thing "Nondual"

I am seeing the same thing "Nondual"

Have a Skydawg OG X 91 Chemdawg cross that I do indoor...

have 1 patient/client that take it all every time....and waits for it.....

really price is secendary to him.....he just want that medicine.

Well some E18 did pop up today and the asking price is $2300...yikes! Seems some guy really likes it and paying top dollar.

 

[weeddaddy50]

Still gowing up....the outdoor is commanding way better prices and indoor has really stabilized and is starting to increase.

 

[DoobieDuck]

weeddaddy that ^ ^ is certainly good news, thanks for the updates. I was told by collectives last fall and the previous year that they didn't even want outdoor. Anyone that has seen my outdoor would wonder why anybody would not want it? Mind boggling for this old timer...DD

 

[zbenjii]

weeddaddy that ^ ^ is certainly good news, thanks for the updates. I was told by collectives last fall and the previous year that they didn't even want outdoor. Anyone that has seen my outdoor would wonder why anybody would not want it? Mind boggling for this old timer...DD

the high from outdoor doesn't last as long. This is a stereotype and like all stereotypes.. they are about 70 - 80% true. most of the time, outdoor just doesn't look or smell as good. Humans tend to generalize and stereotype because most of the time stereotypes are true.



from my experience doing the damn thing on the east coast, indoor and outdoor grown stuff has 20 - 30% overlap in market. Most customers have a solid preference for one or the other. There is definitely more demand for the high grade stuff. The prices for high grade is less elastic, BUT the price is still dependent on supply. The price/supply for top shelf starts to affect the market for mids. The market for mids has less of an effect on high grade tho. There seems to be a constant over supply of mids which have a slower, longer-term affect on prices of the whole industry.

The biggest affect on supply and prices is what's happening in med states.. if the legality for mmj becomes that of prescription pills, alcohol, or tobacco, the mmj industry will eventually function like those industries. As we all know, laws are a huge determinant of profit margins.

The market for marijuana is really sensitive to laws. right now, marijuana is federally illegal.. if you are caught by a federal agency, you are fked no matter where you are. in the past 5 years, the number of mmj states have increased from 12 to 16 i believe. The marijuana laws have not changed in NY. In that same 5 year period, a pound has gone from 4500-5500+ to about 3300-4300. That's with NO changes to NYS law.

A mmj state as robust as california, colorado ect. on the east coast anywhere within 3 hours of the tri-state will definitely affect the prices of the overall market for marijuana. East coast not getting packs from a med-state = serious over supply for everyone.

Edit: btw, stop shipping garbage ass outdoor. you're not fooling anyone, and it's really easy to just choose another connect.

 

[supermanlives]

it dont affect me any. it can go as low as 1k an lb. i will still be growing

 

[zbenjii]

the price would likely go below that if it is legal. i predict competition will erode prices to the point where most people will drop out and only large organizations can compete. I see prices dropping below 600 a pound if it's federally legal. That's the point where organized businesses would have competitive advantage over joe schmoe growing under a 1200 watter.

 

[supermanlives]

i dont expect quality cannabis to go below 1k.

 

[TLoft13]

Don't remember who put it that way, but- look what corn costs(a relativly similar plant). Few hundred bucks a TON IIRC. And gras can be grown on far worse soil. Or look what various seeds cost- often 10 bucks a kilo, even for the end user. Won't take more than a few years max until they engineered gigantic harvesters& manicuring& joint-rolling machines. Basically modifying existing equipment.
I said it before and i say it again- 99,999% of all people now making money in the business won't make a buck after legalization. And the rest, the really, really, really good growers- MAY find a niche- like true connoiseur weed- or advising big agro/big tobacco for the first two years- but they won't get rich of it. They will be cogs, like anybody else.
Greetz,
TLoft13
PS: I can fully understand the PRO-Legalizers- i agree with all of their points. But what i wrote is still true.
PPS: Googled it, from an european farmer forum: Selling price of corn per ton: 24-45 Euro. Average harvest per hectare: 45 tons= 1845 Euro per hectare.
Now you may weep.

 

[zbenjii]

Don't remember who put it that way, but- look what corn costs(a relativly similar plant). Few hundred bucks a TON IIRC. And grass can be grown on far worse soil. Or look what various seeds cost- often 10 bucks a kilo, even for the end user. Won't take more than a few years max until they engineered gigantic harvesters& manicuring& joint-rolling machines. Basically modifying existing equipment.
I said it before and i say it again- 99,999% of all people now making money in the business won't make a buck after legalization. And the rest, the really, really, really good growers- MAY find a niche- like true connoiseur weed- or advising big agro/big tobacco for the first two years- but they won't get rich of it. They will be cogs, like anybody else.
Greetz,
TLoft13
PS: I can fully understand the PRO-Legalizers- i agree with all of their points. But what i wrote is still true.

Agreed. If/when it becomes legal, it'll take about a year for corporations or some limited liability organization to hire a few top growers, a good amount of accountants, managers, salespeople, inventory managers, and lawyers.. and compete to the point where only organized businesses can make a profit. I predict that a pound will cost 4 to 6 hundred dollars--about the cost growing a elbow at home.

not that this is a bad thing, actually the end consumer would eventually pay very little for meds so it's a benefit for the consumer.

but know that in a world where marijuana is legal, any person selling marijuana will have the prospects and status of a cigarette selling, pill peddling dealer.. not cool.

in a world where marijuana is legal, pills would definitely earn a better profit with cigarettes being a far second and marijuana third. Cigarettes would be more profitable than marijuana only because it's physically addictive.

 

[Hammerhead]

it's ridiculous for anyone to not want outdoor without checking it out first. I grew up on outdoor. Nothing I have seen from indoor is any better then the outdoor I have had. If I could grow outdoor I would not even bother with indoor. If its well grown it should not matter..

 

[gingerale]

I said it before and i say it again- 99,999% of all people now making money in the business won't make a buck after legalization. And the rest, the really, really, really good growers- MAY find a niche- like true connoiseur weed- or advising big agro/big tobacco for the first two years- but they won't get rich of it. They will be cogs, like anybody else.

That's nonsense. The legalized cannabis market is going to mint a number of billionaires, and a metric shitload of millionaires. You don't understand how friggin huge this market is bro.

 

[Hammerhead]

I think many forget that when legalized there are many different opportunity's to explore not just growing cannabis. Hemp will be a big one. Just the paper products alone is a billion $ industry. Leave the trees alone use Hemp products go green

 

[zbenjii]

That's nonsense. The legalized cannabis market is going to mint a number of billionaires, and a metric shitload of millionaires. You don't understand how friggin huge this market is bro.

the media calculates the size of the industry based on current prices. People are making money right now only because marijuana is still basically illegal.

 

[Nog Onsigbare]

That's nonsense. The legalized cannabis market is going to mint a number of billionaires, and a metric shitload of millionaires. You don't understand how friggin huge this market is bro.

The market wont get much bigger if legalized because lets face it, anyone who wants to buy bud now can and is doing so. It's very readily available.
Its not like there is a whole heap of people out there who want to smoke but don't at the moment because it's illegal.
In another state here they decriminalised it and studies found that after decriminalisation only 5% more people smoked it than when it was illegal.

 

[TLoft13]

That's nonsense. The legalized cannabis market is going to mint a number of billionaires, and a metric shitload of millionaires. You don't understand how friggin huge this market is bro.

I don't dispute that, I'm aware of the many, many uses of cannabis. But i say 99,999% of the people now making mucho money out of it won't be these millionaires.
Compare the currrent MJ profitmargins with any other industry, maybe then you will get my point. And most current "MJ entrepeneurs" have little usable skillset in an industrialized MJ agrobusiness.

 

[Booner47]

I think prices would increase everywhere other than the state it was legalized in because the supply in that state would not meet the demand at first. So good stuff would come from everywhere. Leaving a shortage in the other states. Especially states in New England if it were Cali that legalizes it. Because I see tons of Cali stuff sent here. And I think that'd slow down or stop for a while.