Hash_Star
Member
A fascinating topic...
If futurists like ray kurzweil are to be believed, then AI is just a few years away. Who knows what they have in DARPA and other top secret research projects, they may have AI already.
Ray kurzweil's timeline:
Predictions
[edit]2010
Supercomputers will have the same raw power as human brains (although not yet the equivalently flexible software).
Computers will disappear as distinct physical objects, being embedded in clothing and in everyday objects.
Displays built into our eyeglasses will provide full-immersion audio-visual virtual reality.
[edit]2010s
Computers become smaller and increasingly integrated into everyday life. (See Microcontroller)
More and more computer devices will be used as miniature web servers, and more will have their resources pooled for computation. (See Grid computing)
High-quality broadband Internet access will become available almost everywhere. (See LTE, OAMM)
Eyeglasses that beam images onto the users' retinas to produce virtual reality will be developed. They will also come with speakers or headphone attachments that will complete the experience with sounds. These eyeglasses will become a new medium for advertising as advertising will be wirelessly transmitted to them as one walks by various business establishments. This was fictionalized in Dennō Coil. (See Project Glass)
The VR glasses will also have built-in computers featuring "virtual assistant" programs that can help the user with various daily tasks. (see Augmented Reality, Google Now, Siri, Virtual Intelligence)
Virtual assistants would be capable of multiple functions. One useful function would be real-time language translation in which words spoken in a foreign language would be translated into text that would appear as subtitles to a user wearing the glasses. (See Machine translation)
Cell phones will be built into clothing and will be able to project sounds directly into the ears of their users. (See E-textiles)
Advertisements will utilize a new technology whereby two ultrasonic beams can be targeted to intersect at a specific point, delivering a localized sound message that only a single person can hear. This was fictionalized in the films Minority Report and Back to the Future Part II. (See Sound from ultrasound.)
[edit]2014
Automatic house cleaning robots will have become common. (See Roomba)
[edit]2018
10 Terabits (1013 bits) of computer memory—roughly the equivalent of the memory (RAM) space in a single human brain—will cost $1000.
[edit]2020
Personal computers will have the same processing power as human brains.
[edit]2020s
Computers less than 100 nm in size will be possible.
As one of their first practical applications, nanomachines will be used for medical purposes.
Highly advanced medical nanobots will perform detailed brainscans on live patients.
Accurate computer simulations of the entire human brain will exist due to these hyperaccurate brainscans, and the workings of the brain will be understood.
Nanobots capable of entering the bloodstream to "feed" cells and extract waste will exist (though not necessarily be in wide use) by the end of this decade. They will make the normal mode of human food consumption obsolete. Thus, humans who have injected these nanobots into their bloodstream will evolve from having a normal human metabolism and become humanoid cyborgs. Eventually, according to Kurzweil, a large percentage of humans will evolve by this process into cyborgs.
By the late 2020s, nanotech-based manufacturing will be in widespread use, radically altering the economy as all sorts of products can suddenly be produced for a fraction of their traditional-manufacture costs. The true cost of any product is now the amount of time it takes to download the design schematics.
Also by the later part of this decade, virtual reality will be so high-quality that it will be indistinguishable from reality.
The threat posed by genetically engineered pathogens permanently dissipates by the end of this decade as medical nanobots—far more durable, intelligent and capable than any microorganism—become sufficiently advanced.
A computer will pass the Turing test by the last year of the decade (2029), meaning that it is a Strong AI and can think like a human (though the first A.I. is likely to be the equivalent of a kindergartner). This first A.I. is built around a computer simulation of a human brain, which was made possible by previous, nanotech-guided brainscanning.
[edit]2025
The most likely year for the debut of advanced nanotechnology.
Some military UAVs and land vehicles will be 100% computer-controlled.
[edit]2030s
Mind uploading becomes possible.
Nanomachines could be directly inserted into the brain and could interact with brain cells to totally control incoming and outgoing signals. As a result, truly full-immersion virtual reality could be generated without the need for any external equipment. Afferent nerve pathways could be blocked, totally canceling out the real world and leaving the user with only the desired virtual experience.
Brain nanobots could also elicit emotional responses from users.
Using brain nanobots, recorded or real-time brain transmissions of a person's daily life known as "experience beamers" will be available for other people to remotely experience. This is very similar to how the characters in Being John Malkovich were able to enter the mind of Malkovich and see the world through his eyes.
Recreational uses aside, nanomachines in people's brains will allow them to greatly expand their cognitive, memory and sensory capabilities, to directly interface with computers, and to telepathically communicate with other, similarly augmented humans via wireless networks.
The economy transits in GDP percentage to more meta services such as reality fabrication, mind enhancement, mental software.
The same nanotechnology should also allow people to alter the neural connections within their brains, changing the underlying basis for the person's intelligence, memories and personality.
[edit]2040s
Human body 3.0 (as Kurzweil calls it) comes into existence. It lacks a fixed, corporeal form and can alter its shape and external appearance at will via foglet-like nanotechnology. Organs are also replaced by superior cybernetic implants.
There will be social splitting into different levels of use of reality augmentation, from those who want to live in a life of imagined harems, or those who dedicate their thoughts to philosophical extension. Human society will drift apart in its focus, but with ever increasing capabilities to make imagined things occur.
People spend most of their time in full-immersion virtual reality (Kurzweil has cited The Matrix as a good example of what the advanced virtual worlds will be like, without the dystopian twist).
Foglets are in use.
[edit]2045: The Singularity
$1000 buys a computer a billion times more powerful than all human brains today. This means that average and even low-end computers are hugely smarter than even highly intelligent, unenhanced humans.
The Singularity occurs as artificial intelligences surpass human beings as the smartest and most capable life forms on the Earth. Technological development is taken over by the machines, who can think, act and communicate so quickly that normal humans cannot even comprehend what is going on; thus the machines, acting in concert with those humans who have evolved into postbiological cyborgs, achieve effective world domination. The machines enter into a "runaway reaction" of self-improvement cycles, with each new generation of A.I.s appearing faster and faster. From this point onwards, technological advancement is explosive, under the control of the machines, and thus cannot be accurately predicted.
The Singularity is an extremely disruptive, world-altering event that forever changes the course of human history. The extermination of humanity by violent machines is unlikely (though not impossible) because sharp distinctions between man and machine will no longer exist thanks to the existence of cybernetically enhanced humans and uploaded humans.
[edit]Post-2045: "Waking up" the Universe
The physical bottom limit to how small computer transistors can be shrunk is reached. From this moment onwards, computers can only be made more powerful if they are made larger in size.
Because of this, A.I.s convert more and more of the Earth's matter into engineered, computational substrate capable of supporting more A.I.s. until the whole Earth is one, gigantic computer (but some areas will remain set aside as nature preserves)[citation needed].
At this point, the only possible way to increase the intelligence of the machines any further is to begin converting all of the matter and energy in the universe into similar massive computers. A.I.s radiate out into space in all directions from the Earth, breaking down whole planets, stars, moons and meteoroids and reassembling them into giant computers. This, in effect, "wakes up" the universe as all the inanimate "dumb" matter (rocks, dust, gases, etc.) is converted into structured matter capable of supporting intelligence, or a form of synthetic life.
Kurzweil predicts that machines will have the ability to make planet-sized computers by 2099, which underscores how enormously technology will advance after the Singularity.[citation needed]
The process of "waking up" the universe will be complete as early as 2199.[citation needed]
With the entire universe made into a giant, highly efficient supercomputer, A.I./human hybrids (so integrated that, in truth it is a new category of "life") would have both supreme intelligence and physical control over the universe. Kurzweil suggests that this will open up all sorts of new possibilities, including manipulation of the physical constants, inter-dimensional travel, and controlling the fate of the universe.
If futurists like ray kurzweil are to be believed, then AI is just a few years away. Who knows what they have in DARPA and other top secret research projects, they may have AI already.
Ray kurzweil's timeline:
Predictions
[edit]2010
Supercomputers will have the same raw power as human brains (although not yet the equivalently flexible software).
Computers will disappear as distinct physical objects, being embedded in clothing and in everyday objects.
Displays built into our eyeglasses will provide full-immersion audio-visual virtual reality.
[edit]2010s
Computers become smaller and increasingly integrated into everyday life. (See Microcontroller)
More and more computer devices will be used as miniature web servers, and more will have their resources pooled for computation. (See Grid computing)
High-quality broadband Internet access will become available almost everywhere. (See LTE, OAMM)
Eyeglasses that beam images onto the users' retinas to produce virtual reality will be developed. They will also come with speakers or headphone attachments that will complete the experience with sounds. These eyeglasses will become a new medium for advertising as advertising will be wirelessly transmitted to them as one walks by various business establishments. This was fictionalized in Dennō Coil. (See Project Glass)
The VR glasses will also have built-in computers featuring "virtual assistant" programs that can help the user with various daily tasks. (see Augmented Reality, Google Now, Siri, Virtual Intelligence)
Virtual assistants would be capable of multiple functions. One useful function would be real-time language translation in which words spoken in a foreign language would be translated into text that would appear as subtitles to a user wearing the glasses. (See Machine translation)
Cell phones will be built into clothing and will be able to project sounds directly into the ears of their users. (See E-textiles)
Advertisements will utilize a new technology whereby two ultrasonic beams can be targeted to intersect at a specific point, delivering a localized sound message that only a single person can hear. This was fictionalized in the films Minority Report and Back to the Future Part II. (See Sound from ultrasound.)
[edit]2014
Automatic house cleaning robots will have become common. (See Roomba)
[edit]2018
10 Terabits (1013 bits) of computer memory—roughly the equivalent of the memory (RAM) space in a single human brain—will cost $1000.
[edit]2020
Personal computers will have the same processing power as human brains.
[edit]2020s
Computers less than 100 nm in size will be possible.
As one of their first practical applications, nanomachines will be used for medical purposes.
Highly advanced medical nanobots will perform detailed brainscans on live patients.
Accurate computer simulations of the entire human brain will exist due to these hyperaccurate brainscans, and the workings of the brain will be understood.
Nanobots capable of entering the bloodstream to "feed" cells and extract waste will exist (though not necessarily be in wide use) by the end of this decade. They will make the normal mode of human food consumption obsolete. Thus, humans who have injected these nanobots into their bloodstream will evolve from having a normal human metabolism and become humanoid cyborgs. Eventually, according to Kurzweil, a large percentage of humans will evolve by this process into cyborgs.
By the late 2020s, nanotech-based manufacturing will be in widespread use, radically altering the economy as all sorts of products can suddenly be produced for a fraction of their traditional-manufacture costs. The true cost of any product is now the amount of time it takes to download the design schematics.
Also by the later part of this decade, virtual reality will be so high-quality that it will be indistinguishable from reality.
The threat posed by genetically engineered pathogens permanently dissipates by the end of this decade as medical nanobots—far more durable, intelligent and capable than any microorganism—become sufficiently advanced.
A computer will pass the Turing test by the last year of the decade (2029), meaning that it is a Strong AI and can think like a human (though the first A.I. is likely to be the equivalent of a kindergartner). This first A.I. is built around a computer simulation of a human brain, which was made possible by previous, nanotech-guided brainscanning.
[edit]2025
The most likely year for the debut of advanced nanotechnology.
Some military UAVs and land vehicles will be 100% computer-controlled.
[edit]2030s
Mind uploading becomes possible.
Nanomachines could be directly inserted into the brain and could interact with brain cells to totally control incoming and outgoing signals. As a result, truly full-immersion virtual reality could be generated without the need for any external equipment. Afferent nerve pathways could be blocked, totally canceling out the real world and leaving the user with only the desired virtual experience.
Brain nanobots could also elicit emotional responses from users.
Using brain nanobots, recorded or real-time brain transmissions of a person's daily life known as "experience beamers" will be available for other people to remotely experience. This is very similar to how the characters in Being John Malkovich were able to enter the mind of Malkovich and see the world through his eyes.
Recreational uses aside, nanomachines in people's brains will allow them to greatly expand their cognitive, memory and sensory capabilities, to directly interface with computers, and to telepathically communicate with other, similarly augmented humans via wireless networks.
The economy transits in GDP percentage to more meta services such as reality fabrication, mind enhancement, mental software.
The same nanotechnology should also allow people to alter the neural connections within their brains, changing the underlying basis for the person's intelligence, memories and personality.
[edit]2040s
Human body 3.0 (as Kurzweil calls it) comes into existence. It lacks a fixed, corporeal form and can alter its shape and external appearance at will via foglet-like nanotechnology. Organs are also replaced by superior cybernetic implants.
There will be social splitting into different levels of use of reality augmentation, from those who want to live in a life of imagined harems, or those who dedicate their thoughts to philosophical extension. Human society will drift apart in its focus, but with ever increasing capabilities to make imagined things occur.
People spend most of their time in full-immersion virtual reality (Kurzweil has cited The Matrix as a good example of what the advanced virtual worlds will be like, without the dystopian twist).
Foglets are in use.
[edit]2045: The Singularity
$1000 buys a computer a billion times more powerful than all human brains today. This means that average and even low-end computers are hugely smarter than even highly intelligent, unenhanced humans.
The Singularity occurs as artificial intelligences surpass human beings as the smartest and most capable life forms on the Earth. Technological development is taken over by the machines, who can think, act and communicate so quickly that normal humans cannot even comprehend what is going on; thus the machines, acting in concert with those humans who have evolved into postbiological cyborgs, achieve effective world domination. The machines enter into a "runaway reaction" of self-improvement cycles, with each new generation of A.I.s appearing faster and faster. From this point onwards, technological advancement is explosive, under the control of the machines, and thus cannot be accurately predicted.
The Singularity is an extremely disruptive, world-altering event that forever changes the course of human history. The extermination of humanity by violent machines is unlikely (though not impossible) because sharp distinctions between man and machine will no longer exist thanks to the existence of cybernetically enhanced humans and uploaded humans.
[edit]Post-2045: "Waking up" the Universe
The physical bottom limit to how small computer transistors can be shrunk is reached. From this moment onwards, computers can only be made more powerful if they are made larger in size.
Because of this, A.I.s convert more and more of the Earth's matter into engineered, computational substrate capable of supporting more A.I.s. until the whole Earth is one, gigantic computer (but some areas will remain set aside as nature preserves)[citation needed].
At this point, the only possible way to increase the intelligence of the machines any further is to begin converting all of the matter and energy in the universe into similar massive computers. A.I.s radiate out into space in all directions from the Earth, breaking down whole planets, stars, moons and meteoroids and reassembling them into giant computers. This, in effect, "wakes up" the universe as all the inanimate "dumb" matter (rocks, dust, gases, etc.) is converted into structured matter capable of supporting intelligence, or a form of synthetic life.
Kurzweil predicts that machines will have the ability to make planet-sized computers by 2099, which underscores how enormously technology will advance after the Singularity.[citation needed]
The process of "waking up" the universe will be complete as early as 2199.[citation needed]
With the entire universe made into a giant, highly efficient supercomputer, A.I./human hybrids (so integrated that, in truth it is a new category of "life") would have both supreme intelligence and physical control over the universe. Kurzweil suggests that this will open up all sorts of new possibilities, including manipulation of the physical constants, inter-dimensional travel, and controlling the fate of the universe.
