das musst du mir jetzt genauer erklären... was ist daran unfug?OMG.... hoffentlich lässt du den Quark stehen, bis dein Geist mal erwacht und schämst dich dann so richtig für diesen Unfug.
Du kannst es einfach nicht verstehen, wie viele andere auch nicht.das musst du mir jetzt genauer erklären... was ist daran unfug?
eure spaziergänge werden als bedrohung betrachtet... ihr wollt damit aufmerksamkeit... gibt man auch diese nicht... dann werdet ihr dafür sorgen dass eure spaziergänge aufmerksamkeit erzeugen... sprich so oder so muss der staatsapparat vor ort sein... ihr verursacht damit extreme kosten... verschleisst unsere beamten.
ohne eure spaziergänge... keine kosten... das ist fakt.
menschengruppen mit wut im bauch... und die wird kommen und sich hochschaukeln... sind immer eine tickende zeitbombe... die hochgehen wird.
es wird verletzte und tote geben... traumtisierte kinder zerstörung überlastung unserer systeme.
Und mal hand aufs herz... bist du wirklich so naiv anzunehmen dass dies die energiekonzerne interessiert? nein die interessiert nur eines... Geld. Nur da kann man sie packen.
Der wert einer sache ist der der ein anderer bereit ist dafür zu bezahlen!
Auf strom kann ich nicht verzichten... ich muss diesen beziehen... meine bereitschaft absurde Kilowatt Stundenpreise zu bezahlen ist jedoch bei weitem nicht so hoch wie die energiekonzerne aufrufen möchten.
Bezahle ich also nur den betrag den ich auch vor dem krieg bezahlt habe... würden dies alle so machen... es wäre weder für die energiekonzerne noch für die aufgerufenen behörden stemmbar... sie würden unter der bürokratischen last zusammenbrechen... es könnte keine entsprechende verfolgung stattfinden...
dies sehe ich als einzigstes mittel als verbraucher an der entwicklung des strompreises einfluss zu nehmen... ganz ohne gewalt... ganz ohne zusätzliche kosten und gefahrenquellen zu eröffnen.
Heh heh... Only 60% of your storage capacity and you're throwing rockets at me... How many months do you have with that??
As industry across Germany grapples with the very real prospect of running without gas, some companies are already contemplating cutting production to zero. The employers of chemical companies VCI, the most important sector of the German economy behind the automotive and heavy industry, warns that it will be inevitable to plan cuts or production stops for next week if there are problems with the gas supply. " Some companies still have facilities to use coal, but only 2-3% of gas consumption in our industry can be replaced in this way ," business association spokesman Jörg Rothermel tells the Financial Times ."Only 2% of German factories have alternatives to gas"
"The risk of gas supply disruptions is becoming more likely and our conviction in our base case is rapidly fading," they add in a recent report. The problem is that Bank of America already assumed that Germany was going to fall into recession between the second and third quarters of this year, in a GDP growth forecast of 1.1% for 2022 and 1.4% for 2023 . Even if the worst is not over with Gazprom's pipeline, "there is every chance of an almost complete depletion of gas inventories sometime during the winter or early spring." Gas rationing seems practically unavoidable, especially if there is a cold winter."Without a Russian cut, the reserves in Germany will also end"
Ich wollte das auch schon schreiben.Langsam spür ich hier das alte burg feeling
Ich hab hier für mind. 3 Jahre Holz liegen usw. und brauche gar kein Gas.... Ups.Heh heh... Only 60% of your storage capacity and you're throwing rockets at me... How many months do you have with that??
The storage capacity of the EU translates into an average of 99 days of gas consumption, with large differences between countries depending on their storage capacity and consumption. Thus, Austria's storage capacity almost covers its annual consumption, while in Germany it would be less than 3 months(...)
Reservas estratégicas de gas en la UE: dónde están y a qué nivel se encuentran
La UE ha exigido a los países miembros que llenen sus almacenamientos de gas al 80 % de su capacidad antes del 1 de noviembre de 2022 para garantizar la seguridad del suministro el próximo invierno.theconversation.com
Economy
Winter is coming for Germany: without Russian gas, GDP will be devastated at a level higher than the pandemic or the 2008 crisis
- The large institutes of the country estimate an impact of 220,000 million
- The powerful industry is getting closer to suffering activity stoppages
- Neither the pandemic nor the 2008 crisis hit so hard
iStock.
12:26 - 07/20/2022
The first analysts put figures and draw the scenario of Germany with a total cut of Russian supply. The fall could exceed the annual contraction experienced by covid in 2020. There is some consensus in pointing to a loss of more than 200,000 million euros due to the paralysis of the industry. Not since World War II would there have been such production destruction. The country may run out of gas reserves in February if it fails to cut demand by 30%.
In Winterfell, the last region of the Seven Kingdoms before colliding with the wall, the phrase Winter is coming concentrates all the fears of the fictional world of Game of Thrones, in winter. In the middle of July, Germany is preparing for its particular Winter is coming. The euro zone's largest economy is facing its biggest economic challenge in decades . "If the Russian gas supply were cut off, the German economy would go into a deep recession," says Stefan Kooths, vice president and director of business cycle and growth research at the Kiel Institute. The institution, together with the DIW in Berlin, the IFO Institute in Munich, the IWH Institute in Halle and the RWI Institute in Essen, have calculated thatthe impact on the country's GDP would be 220,000 million euros .
The five organizations are among the most prestigious in Germany and are far from being alarmist institutions. In percentage, this translates into a drop of 5.2% in 2022 and 6% for 2023 . These are figures that leave little the annual impact of the coronavirus in 2020 (German GDP fell by 4.6%) or the setback suffered by the economy in 2009, after the fall of Lehman Brothers (GDP contracted by 5.7 %). These are the biggest drops in production since World War II. The previous two crises for Germany were rapid declines, which did not last long. But this time, if the worst omens come true, the blow will be long and hard.
Currently, German gas reserves are close to 65% . Olaf Scholz's government set itself the goal of reaching 90% in order to deal with a supply cut by Moscow with some degree of security. But it will be insufficient, with a scenario of total blockade of Russian gas and with imports of liquefied gas at the limit. According to calculations by the think tank Brueguel , the country would run out of inventories as of February . Basically, you will be forced to shut down the industry if you want to end the winter with a small percentage of inventory. Experts Georg Zachman and Ben McWilliams from the institution point to a 30% adjustment in gas demand, which in practice means that the private sector assumes cuts in supplies.
Closing the tap by Moscow would mean pushing the mighty German industry into the abyss. Much of the sector, such as chemicals, intermediate goods, aluminium, cement, steel or glass, needs to make intensive use of electricity. Power cuts or rationing would mean the downfall of many companies. "It would be the permanent collapse of many sectors with massive implications for employment and the economy," commented a few weeks ago Yasmin Fahimi, leader of the country's main union.
At the moment, Russia has halted gas exports through Nord Stream , the largest gas pipeline connecting Russia with Europe through the Baltic Sea bound for Germany. Moscow maintains that the supply will resume on July 21 , within the period scheduled for maintenance functions. But the Government of Olaf Scholz doubts that the gas will flow with some normality again, after it was reduced by 40% before starting work . Deutsche Bank economists already contemplate in their forecasts a recession for the German economy for the second half of the year, even if there is not a total gas cut. "A likely further decrease in Russian gas supply after maintenance will already have economic consequences on the industry," experts comment. But they also do not rule out a complete shutdown of supply. "There would be a rationing of gas to the industry that will lead to a drop in GDP of between 5% and 6% in 2023," they underline in a recent report.
Berlin, for now, has adopted alert level 2 of its emergency plan for gas shortages . The main novelty of this scenario is that it allows the reactivation of coal plants , but the Government has avoided the possibility of transferring the increase in the price of energy to final customers, despite the fact that it does not expect the capacity of Nord Stream to return to exceed 40%, point out Maeva Cousin and Martin Ademme of Bloomberg Economics . And they stress that "the Government has curbed the impact on families and businesses, but a good opportunity to reduce demand has been missed."
Level 3 of the plan contemplates rationing plans in case the supply by Russia falls below 40% . It would be activated if the crisis worsened and market participants were overwhelmed. The State would intervene in the market, transforming the Federal Network Agency into the "federal load distributor" and would become responsible for determining, in coordination with the operators, the distribution of gas.
In other words, this state-controlled distribution of gas would result in rationing. Homes, social enterprises or hospitals would enjoy special protection. They would not suffer cuts, but they would begin to assume the increase in prices.
In this scenario, according to analysts at Swiss bank UBS, it would trigger a "deep recession" with nearly 6% of GDP wiped out by the end of next year. The Bundesbank has warned that collateral effects on global supply chains "would increase the original shock effect to two and a half times the size".
As industry across Germany grapples with the very real prospect of running without gas, some companies are already contemplating cutting production to zero. The employers of chemical companies VCI, the most important sector of the German economy behind the automotive and heavy industry, warns that it will be inevitable to plan cuts or production stops for next week if there are problems with the gas supply. " Some companies still have facilities to use coal, but only 2-3% of gas consumption in our industry can be replaced in this way ," business association spokesman Jörg Rothermel tells the Financial Times .
BASF , the country's leading chemical company, has acknowledged that it will have to shut down its cracking plants in Ludwigshafen if supplies fall below the 50% normally available. Heavy industry has it even worse. ThyssenKrupp , one of Europe's largest steelmakers, may be forced to take its blast furnaces offline and expose itself to serious damage to its facilities. Another emblematic German company, such as the pharmaceutical company Merck , has contingency plans, which allow the use of fuels such as gasoline and diesel to continue production.
But the problem for the industry is not just whether there will be a total gas shortage. They are already enduring skyrocketing energy prices. The price of electricity has come to exceed 350 euros per MWh, when the average in recent years was around 40 euros. Meanwhile, the price of gas has multiplied by eight in the last 18 months, going from about 20 euros per MWh to more than 160 euros. The International Energy Agency predicts that this winter the price of electricity in the wholesale market will double .
The German Government has promised to mobilize a fund of 5,000 million to help the most affected sectors of the industry. And it is also preparing the rescue of the gas company Uniper suffocated by high prices . For now, Berlin is trying to keep the costs from being passed on to consumers and businesses yet . But it would be difficult to explain that there is a rescue of the gas company and the increase in prices is not passed on to the final customer.
Since June 2021, the price of gas has increased by 360%. According to Bank of America calculations, producer prices show an increase of more than 220% and consumer gas prices point to a 6% increase during the same period.
"In a scenario where supplies from Nordstream 1 return to 40% and with full gas reservoirs, demand cuts equivalent to about a third of all gas used by the industrial sector would be required ," Cousin and Ademme stress. . His calculations are more alarming than those of Brueguel, who contemplated a similar demand cut but with a total cut of Russian gas. In any case, experts anticipate rationing and transfer of wholesale prices to contain demand.
The network regulator in Germany (Bundesnetzagentur), a body in charge of ensuring electricity, gas, telecommunications or railway infrastructure, has developed seven possible scenarios, starting next Thursday, when maintenance work on Nord Stream 1 ends. In three of them, supply restrictions are contemplated with respect to the days prior to July 11 and the need for rationing needs between 2% and 12% of the normal annual gas consumption in the country.. For Bank of America analysts, it could mean a loss in GDP of between 0.7% and 1.6%. The country would be doomed to recession, bearing in mind that no one expected, without a Russian cut, a quarterly growth of more than 0.3%. The investment bank's estimate only takes into account the impact on the industrial sector. The firm's experts point out that "there is potential for greater effects on the economy through confidence, price increases and more uncertainty."
"The risk of gas supply disruptions is becoming more likely and our conviction in our base case is rapidly fading," they add in a recent report. The problem is that Bank of America already assumed that Germany was going to fall into recession between the second and third quarters of this year, in a GDP growth forecast of 1.1% for 2022 and 1.4% for 2023 . Even if the worst is not over with Gazprom's pipeline, "there is every chance of an almost complete depletion of gas inventories sometime during the winter or early spring." Gas rationing seems practically unavoidable, especially if there is a cold winter.
In the possible supply cut by Moscow, not only Germany is at stake, but also the rest of Europe. Russian gas arriving in Germany from the Nord Stream is usually redistributed to the Czech Republic, Austria, Switzerland and, to a lesser extent, France and Denmark. Under normal conditions, "Germany re-exports 40% of its imports," they point out from Bloomberg Economics . Cousin and Ademmer believe that it will be key if the cuts are assumed only by Germany or shared with intermediate customers" to mitigate the impact. The way in which the European Union's emergency plan, which will be presented this week, is coordinated, should give any clue if they are going to compensate in some way the countries that suffer the greatest deficit.
The European Commission today presents the energy emergency plan with the title Save gas for a safe Winter . The small details remain to be seen, but a solidarity mechanism will be established between the EU countries to always guarantee the supply of gas to the most vulnerable consumers. And EU countries will be asked to study the possibility of switching from gas used for electricity production to greater use of coal and nuclear power. In the European Commission's summer forecasts, which were published last week, the impact of the probable Russian supply cut was ignored. In no case, a collapse of the German economy, nor of the euro zone, was contemplated. For Germany they gave GDP growth of 1.4% and 1.3%, for 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Brussels has saved the bad news for the presentation of the emergency plan. According to the draft that is already circulating in European capitals, the European Commission calculates that the impact of the Russian supply cut in the euro zone as a whole would mean up to 1.5 points of GDP , practically the growth forecast for 2023, of 1, 4%. It would mean that the euro economy would enter a recession, but it seems too limited an impact, considering that Germany's GDP had a weight of 28% in the euro zone as a whole and German economists expect a hit to production of 220,000 millions of euros.
Winter is coming para Alemania: sin gas ruso el PIB quedará arrasado en un nivel superior a la pandemia o a la crisis de 2008
Los primeros analistas ponen cifras y dibujan el escenario de Alemania con un corte total de suministro ruso. La caída podría superar a la contracción anual experimentada por el covid en 2020. Hay cierto consenso en apuntar a una pérdida de más de 200.000 millones de euros por la paralización de...www.eleconomista.es
Damit mein ich auch dich mein lieberIch wollte das auch schon schreiben.
Wohl alles Trolle die nur auf Zerstörung aus sind.
Am Ende des Tages bin ich aber Schuld, weil ich immer wieder reagiere. Sy
Ich weiß dass du auch mich meinst. War wie gesagt mein Fehler.Damit mein ich auch dich mein lieber
Du stänkerst schon gerne gell?
Und willst immer recht haben
Ich hab recht ,alle anderen sind doof und mainstream
Ich hab auch ost verwandschaft die genauso tickt (brandenburg)
Ick mag Dir trotzdem und alle anderen hier auch!jeder hat seine ansichten, gedanken,meinungen blabla
Bei solchen themen gibts eh immer nur krach...
Wenn mir die kaputte welt da draussen zu viel wird,verzieh ich mich in wald mit 200mikrogramm danach gehts mir IMMER besser! Only ACID....
View attachment 18742279
So einmal alle fest drücken und jut is
Ich habe inzwischen mehr Bäume gepflanzt als gefällt. Es dauert viel zu lange um dir meine Welt zu erklären. Tut mir nicht leid, aber ich finde es schade, das auf einer grünen Seite zu lesen.Great WIIIDZN: better German firewood than Russian gas. You have already solved with full solvency all the energetic problems of your country: how easy it was, wasn't it?
Although I don't think there is no need to switch to Siberian Huskies (unless we change the Audi for a sled); I understand that over there there are wonderful native dogs that can also withstand the cold of the Germanic winter...
-"What do you think, "Cabrón"?- (Nahhh...he says that he is Czech line, and that he doesn't care about messes... Se ríe el muy cabronazo, je...)
View attachment 18742280
was willst du machen... wortglauberei benutzen? Ich spreche von den folgen und auswirkungen des anarchismus!Fang einfach mal bei Anarchie an. Wenn du das erklären kannst, dann können wir weiter machen.
Ich hab hier für mind. 3 Jahre Holz liegen usw. und brauche gar kein Gas.... Ups.
Langsam spür ich hier das alte burg feeling