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Gold bugs!
- Thread starter gladysvjubb
- Start date
IMO, the problem with phyzz is the BS of the electronic price. Try to buy bars or especially coins at spot. So when you value a coin or bar, you have to figure the premium. That is where dealers make their money usually, in normal times. They buy and won't give you any premium over spot, but charge whatever the market will bear on sales.
So in this environment, buying then selling phyzz has a lot of "drag". The black market will have to learn this and adapt. I can see gold coins being part of the dope trade. My guy is still taking cash, but with the increase in prices the size of the envelope (and weight), makes it a tempting target for the crazy postal employees. Probably every mail room employee in the triangle has a new car, rolex, and NEVER takes days off in the late fall.
So in this environment, buying then selling phyzz has a lot of "drag". The black market will have to learn this and adapt. I can see gold coins being part of the dope trade. My guy is still taking cash, but with the increase in prices the size of the envelope (and weight), makes it a tempting target for the crazy postal employees. Probably every mail room employee in the triangle has a new car, rolex, and NEVER takes days off in the late fall.
Gold 1,812.10 4:59PM EDT +11.80 +0.66%
St. Phatty
Active member
Why do they call them, Gold Bugs ?
There are times when you can buy 1000 ounce Silver bars at 29 cents over spot.
But not right now !
I think the 1000 ounce Mexico bars from the Penoles mine, are a Work of Art -
Gold 1,812.00 6:52AM EDT +2.00 +0.11%
Gold 1,840.10 9:23AM EDT +22.70 +1.25%
Gold 1,874.80 8:09PM EDT +9.70 +0.52%
Gold 1,900.10 4:54PM EDT +10.10 +0.53%
brickweeder
Well-known member
be nice if it blows through the 2011 $1920 top....there is no previous resistance above, so who knows how high it will reach before a nice correction.
St. Phatty
Active member
Gold @$1900 in 2020 dollars is not the same as Gold @$1900 in 2011 dollars.
brickweeder
Well-known member
So true!
But for some reason, the old highs often serve as resistance years, even decades later. Look at Silver in the 80s when it ran to 50, and then in 2011 when it ran to 50 again. Silver@50 in 2011 dollars is not the same as Silver@50 in 1980's dollars, but the 50 mark served as resistance in both cases despite the inflated money supply. Silver has a boatload of catching up to do. Gold leads silver follows, albeit sometimes with a delay.
Funny you should say that, as the 2011 bull run in silver stopped just after a boatload of WW2 silver was found.
https://www.history.com/news/silver-laden-world-war-ii-shipwreck-discovered
But that was peanuts compared to the platnum found the next year.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/history...n-in-platinum-on-sunken-WW2-British-ship.html
Between clinton and rubin selling off the US treasury gold, and those people finding sunken ships, it's hard to get ahead investing in PMs.
Here is a chart that goes a long way in explaining why people buy assets like metals. A silver dollar and a $20 gold double , not that long ago and I love that 20-1 ratio.
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brickweeder
Well-known member
Especially if you don't sell into super strength like that last upleg in 2011, and hodl until the next cycle low, like the end of 2015.This is something most bugs are quite familiar with.
That is easy to look back and say, but stackers stacked because of the chart I put up above. That toothpaste isn't getting put backin the tube. National debts are not going to ever be repaid either. That is just the mechanism the bankers will use to take all the assets the .guv "owns". Like roads (make toll roads), land (sell it off), etc.
IMO, the way to play the ratio and remain stacked is trade between the metals somehow. I have never done it, as physical metals have a lot of transaction drag (fees, costs, risk). Maybe a shop would trade, but you can bet there will be a price.
brickweeder
Well-known member
Couldn't agree with this more. But still, one should set aside some trading positions, and sell into super strength, so that they can buy super weakness in size with what is formerly the market's money. At this point in the curve, the guv is printing $ and buying assets...just look at the holding of the BOJ and Swiss Nat Bnk. Talk about the F'n scam...print money from nothing, buy companies that produce real wealth. Most people are asleep or just not paying attention, but they'll wake soon and say "WTF is happening?" when that curve steepens even more and really gets exponential. They may have to manufacture a war soon to divert attention.
this is a good strategy, but as you said, the premium drag is a drag. And the metals may not be available when the ratio is at the extreme, as stackers have recently experienced. The key when using actual metals to play the ratio is to do it at the extremes so that the drag is overcome....50:1 is not an extreme, 40 is approaching it, and anything less than 35 I consider an extreme that could get even more extreme. I used to think 90:1 was an extreme, but the recent 120+:1 set a new record. Problem is that it could be 20-30 years between opposite extremes. I'm glad I bought slv into the 120+:1 and if we hit extreme low territory in the ratio, I'll trade some slv paper for actual yellow metal if its available and if I still have slv.
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brickweeder
Well-known member
It may be minutes or hours before we see a new all time high...Trading View is showing the 2011 intra-week peak at 1920.94, and is showing a current price of 1919.61...its getting interesting.
brickweeder
Well-known member
Bingo! Now lets get the train really moving with a weekly close at a new all time high...
"Paper metal" like SLV (even thought it is supposed to be backed) are a whole different critter. Those you trade based on NAV, or when the difference between spot and paper is so great, buy the paper and let it catch up in price to phyzz. $12 SLV was that opportunity. So was buying on the COMEX and standing for delivery (a shop I know of did both, in size).
I just sit on my stack now, and mostly don't even think about it.
They are talking about the feds paying 70% of people's paychecks. When does this madness end? We are at $26T+ debt now. Divide that by the population. How will the debt get erased, besides runaway inflation?
I just sit on my stack now, and mostly don't even think about it.
They are talking about the feds paying 70% of people's paychecks. When does this madness end? We are at $26T+ debt now. Divide that by the population. How will the debt get erased, besides runaway inflation?
brickweeder
Well-known member
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Yes, because sometimes paper is the only game in town, especially when the ratio reaches an extreme after the paper market smacks the price below the cost of production and the availability of real metal is nowhere to be found. So at these times, folks looking to protect their purchasing power have to go long the paper until the metal price is above the cost of production and the premiums have decreased and the metal is available. The risk of holding paper until these requirements are met is usually disregarded, but it is there.
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Yes, because sometimes paper is the only game in town, especially when the ratio reaches an extreme after the paper market smacks the price below the cost of production and the availability of real metal is nowhere to be found. So at these times, folks looking to protect their purchasing power have to go long the paper until the metal price is above the cost of production and the premiums have decreased and the metal is available. The risk of holding paper until these requirements are met is usually disregarded, but it is there.
Yeah, it's crazy right now, and getting worse. Every presidential cycle, the US debt increased at an increasing rate. US Debt under the Donald is going to make US debt under the Baroque look like a skid mark rather than toilet-clogging dump. US debt under Donald 2/Creepy Joe (doesn't matter who the next president is) is going to be a manure pile. The madness keeps going until at some point when control is lost and not regain-able, "they" reset back to a new zero point with a few tweaks here and there, and the process continues on. The world is probably closer than its ever been to a loss of control since Nixon took the US...the World, off the gold standard. Time to buckle up.
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No sympathy for the stack of bengis? Pretty paper, lotsa security features?
The price of used private planes has gone up, availability down. Cash will be trash, people are stocking up for a rough one ahead. A year ago, airlines were hurting for pilots. Now, nobody flies on airlines, and they are firing pilots.
My guess is sailboats that can be lived on and moved to nicer places without war and WuFlu, are going up in price, down in availability also.
The price of used private planes has gone up, availability down. Cash will be trash, people are stocking up for a rough one ahead. A year ago, airlines were hurting for pilots. Now, nobody flies on airlines, and they are firing pilots.
My guess is sailboats that can be lived on and moved to nicer places without war and WuFlu, are going up in price, down in availability also.
