NFL 2014

[Miraculous Meds]

Historic for sure Herman....Does anyone agree that if Peyton can get number 2 that he'll end up being #1?

there will never be a definitive answer because the question is subjective. The only way he isn't #1 already is because people measure winning the superbowl differently. Other wise it seems obvious that he owns most all the important stats that a qb can have. One player doesn't make a superbowl winning team. If u put peyton on the patriots team, with belicheck what would have happened. Do u think that brady would get the chance to start over peyton manning. We might not have even heard of tom brady if peyton was playing there.

 

[rasputin]

*Warning* Some mild gloating ahead... you've been warned

*Warning* Some mild gloating ahead... you've been warned

Bills
Ravens
Browns
Packers
Bears
Colts
Lions* (subject to change, gotta see where Calvin is at by Sunday morning)
Seahawks
Titans
Chiefs
Cowboys
Cardinals
Broncos
Texans

The Chiefs/Charges game is a tough call which puts me at odds with most of you guys betting on the Bolts.

12-3, hot damn. And the KC pick, to boot. Add that in with the last 3 weeks and it seems safe to say I'm on something of a roll. I've taken a hard line this year against over-analyzing things, getting caught up too much with stats. Like George Dubya, I'm going with my gut but unlike 44 my results are much harder to argue with. Though I know that won't stop some of you damn animals from doing exactly that.

Who needs Retro's half-time strategy when you can just make the right call before the game starts, eh? Otto saw the wisdom in my KC pick and put some money on them. That paid off so well he then went and blew it all on a terrible 49ers pick, he must have been in a real daze from his earlier winnings and the Cowboys beating New York. No amount of delirium or bonus money from side bets was changing my mind, I was Broncos all the way. Whadeez was reaching with some his criticisms of Denver's offense and well, I think he's singing a different tune now. Probably goes something like... "I hurt myself today... to see if I still feel."

Retro, to be fair I did say the last 15-20 years. The names you listed reads like the dinner roll call at the local nursing home. Are many of those people even still alive? Makes my point for me rather well, don't ya think?

I dig the Broadway Joe era Jets, that's one of the great sports stories of all time. But who have the Jets had since 1994 that was a legit stud capable of improving that franchise, besides Martin? For a brief spell maybe count Revis but his reign on top was short like leprachauns. Not hating, just saying. They seem like they've been spinning their wheels as a franchise for the last 10 years, minus that little hiccup a few years back when they were challenging NE for AFC East supremacy but that was a blip on the radar when you look at the big picture.

man, gastineau looks like an ape. or a neanderthal. big, sloping shoulders, long arms, huge hands, prominent brow ridge, and hairy.
his daughters are hot enough, though.

isnt 1.8 billion almost 3x 635 million? or you are using the inflation adjusted figure of 860million?
either way, you are forgetting the value of owning an NFL franchise is not just its market value, but the pride it gives the owner to have one of only 32 teams in the world. is there a name for that? intrinsic, inherent value or something...
a rich person who doesnt care about sports probably wouldnt be interested in a sports team if ROI could be much greater in other businesses, but for the rich sob's who do care about sports, they love owning a team, if only to show it off to their rich friends.
are half of all rich people sports fans? are half of people in general sports fans? besides, rich people have to spend their money on something. how many houses and planes and yachts and artwork can you own before you say maybe ill buy the la clippers cause im bored of sailing around the world?
you should equate ownership of teams not along business terms but along personal terms.

lol Doesn't that actually support my point that he overpaid for them? He's rich, has tons of money to blow, owning a NFL team is prestigious and rare and he wanted to be one of 32 guys who can say they own a NFL franchise. Doesn't seem like the type of situation where you're likely to leave money on the table so I'm having a hard time seeing how any of those very accurate points runs counter to the fact that he overpaid. Seems likely that if you're rich enough to own a pro sports team you're almost bound to overpay for it because you're up against other rich guys similarly capable of overpaying for something just because they can and because they really want to.

I understand that the location of the team makes it seem like no amount of money is too little but they're a low revenue team and outside of the recent sweetheart deal they worked out for the stadium, which is still a split with the NYG, what else does this franchise have going for it? Jacksonville going for 770 means by virtue of location the Jets will never sell below 1bil but maybe instead of assuming that means "wow, they're really valuable, a billion dollars!" maybe it means... a billion dollars doesn't buy you what it used to.

Just saying.

 

[RetroGrow]

Who needs Retro's half-time strategy when you can just make the right call before the game starts, eh? feel."

Except that calls made before the game are made with less information, and can be wrong. So if you see your pick is playing badly in the first half, why not switch at halftime? It's actually easier to make an intelligent bet @ halftime, and the lines are often very strange, ie., the team losing will often be favored in the second half. Example, on Moday night, I bet Steelers to win the first half and the game. Well, they were very lucky to get 3 touchdowns in the last few minutes of the half, which gave me the first half win. At halftime, however, the Texans were favored by 1.5 points, so I took them to win the second half, and parlayed them with the under. All bets won, on both teams. And that's why the ability to bet at half time is priceless. I also bet Denver in the first quarter, first half, and game, but at halftime, I was able to bet on them in the second half also, thereby increasing my winnings. So, to me, ignoring the second half spreads is foolish. I haven't lost a second half bet all season.
Maybe you don't have that option, or maybe you are not betting. Making picks, and actually betting on games is two different animals. Anyway, don't knock it if you haven't tried it.
Are you just making picks, or are you actually betting on the games?

 

[rasputin]

I was just messing with ya man, that was some of my shameless gloating. hehehehe I actually agree with you about the half time betting. Not just for when your first pick might be bad but in general, as you pointed out, you can hedge your bets and make some pretty well informed decisions.

I bet and make picks. I bet on the KC/Chargers game, Broncos/9ers and almost forgot to mention Seahawks/Rams, the dud pick of the week. Didn't see that one coming and I definitely didn't see Zac Stacy basically losing his job before we even got to week 10. Can't believe I drafted that stiff. Anyway, my FF keeper league has a separate thing going where we make picks on the games straight up and keep a record of it, money from some side bets goes into a kitty and at the end the 3 best pickers share the money. Its one way for guys who have shitty teams to make a little money on the season and not feel like a total loser, at least that's how it started. Now it's pretty competitive.

 

[Miraculous Meds]

Im not sold on halftime pics having an advantage. U will have some more info, but can that be used correctly? easier said than done, as we know that both teams will adjust, or at least the one that's losing.

 

[Ottoman]

Rasp, Don't (too late ) get me started on how hedging your bets is actually not a good idea. Hedging your bets IMO is not smart because in the end all your doing is guaranteeing the book money or your just winning less money which is counter productive to winning money and most professionals/handicappers would probably agree 9 out of 10 times. Also in the NFL and I hate to use your raiders example from a couple weeks ago retro, is not hedging a bet when you still have a chance to lose all the money you place on the game, yes you took them -4 at half but you parlayed them with the O/U which means that just gives you another avenue to lose all your money on top of losing at the numbers 5 and 6.......hedging a bet example would work as followed........say you parlayed the cowboys (-3) and the niners (-3) on sunday, the cowboys play a 1pm and the niners at 430 pm. Now say the cowboys are 100% gonna cover for you you now have won half your bet, if you want to guarantee some money coming back to you, you would then place a wager on whoever is playing the niners at 430, lets just say NYG (+3) as a single bet.

So you parlay the cowboys and niners for 100 to win 200......just for the sake of easy numbers here.....cowboys covered so now your only 1 game away from winning 200 bucks! You decided hey I don't like my niners pick anymore let me place 50 on the NYG +3 as a single bet......if you lose the parlay you lose 100 but make 50 off the NYG bet....instead of losing 100 you now only lose 50.....but if you win the parlay and lose the NYG single bet your now only collecting 150 instead of your 200. Even if the small chance of the game lands at 3 and you draw that parlay turns into a cowboys single bet which means your still gonna collect something no matter what, that's hedging. I am sorry Rasp and Retro, I respectfully disagree with the idea of hedging your bets because it does nothing but guarantee the house money or you less winnings and that's against my religious gambling bible

 

[iTarzan]

Did anyone watch the Colts/Bengals game? That cheap shot artist and ankle twisting poor sport Bengal linebacker Burfict tried to helmet spear Luck who was running trying to score a TD. He tackled him after 4 yard gain. The best part was Burfict didn't get up and didn't return to the game. He got broken by Luck.

The point being that Luck is a load. A big, strong, super athletic load.

He almost threw an INT and he instantly took the angle in preperation to make a bone shattering tackle. The DB fortunately dropped it and his life was sparred. He has already made some spectacular tackles in his young career. Some that he overpowered the person and some where he chased a speedster down from behind.

He will go down as the best player who ever played the game. I feel blessed to be a Colts fan.

The Colts are number 4 in the Power Rankings even after being ripped off the first two games.

If they played Denver tomorrow it would be a bad day to be a Bronco.

 

[RetroGrow]

Also in the NFL and I hate to use your raiders example from a couple weeks ago retro, is not hedging a bet when you still have a chance to lose all the money you place on the game, yes you took them -4 at half but you parlayed them with the O/U which means that just gives you another avenue to lose all your money on top of losing at the numbers 5 and 6......

This is just so moronic, I can't believe you posted the same drivel 3 times already!
I don't know why you're so obsessed with it.
I won the bet. I don't need "betting lessons" from you, O.K.? How I may bet shouldn't confront you anymore than how you bet confronts me. Like I said after the second time you posted the same thing, let it go. You are making zero sense.

 

[rasputin]

It's a fair point that in some instances "hedging" your bets is really just an example of throwing good money after bad. A lot of times hedging bets or investments is about maintaining cash flow more than anything else, otherwise you're out of the game. So I don't subscribe to using halftime bets to simply make up lost ground from earlier picks. I have the luxury, I guess, of not having to do that. I think you're spinning your wheels even if you're winning back 25-50% of your earlier losses. I'm not trying to scratch out a winning bet for 20 bucks just so I can say I didn't lose entirely that day. I bet to either lose spectacularly or win brilliantly. No half stepping.

Otto, I think you make a good point re: the Oakland example of hedging. I don't subscribe to that particular model, however. Not unless you're going to go full tilt and bet enough to completely cover your early bet. That's where I differ from Retro on the halftime thing, I wouldn't use it to eek out a small winning just to mitigate some of my earlier loss. Both because I don't have to and because as you mentioned you can't possibly win both bets if you take a certain position on the earlier pick like picking SD to win by 7+ and at halftime taking Oakland with 4.5, to win the halftime bet you have to lose the initial bet. Spinning your wheels. So your Dallas/SF/NYG example is much more in line with what I meant by hedging with halftime bets.

It seems potentially useful for when you've made outright bets on a couple games but then there's a game that's a tough call so you hold off until the half to make a bet. I'm not in the habit of doing that personally but I can see why some people might. I know some people that just like to bet to say they "won" more than to actually increase their stack. You know that guy who loses 8 side bets in a row and then wins the 9th and acts like he's some sort of sage gambler? Those people seem like the halftime betting types.

 

[iTarzan]

Why ruin another thread Retro? I don't care what you bet on. It isn't even that you win that much because you don't. It is just boring and sad.

If you do bet like you say and you commented all year long on the baseball thread about bets you made, you have a major problem. Seriously! Get help.

You lost your shirt betting on King Felix.
You lost your shirt betting on Tanaka.
You lost your shirt betting on the Yankees.
You lost your shirt betting on Barao.
Your football betting skills suck.
You probably bet basketball daily too and that is as low as you can sink in the betting world.

Congrats loser.

 

[Ottoman]

iTarzan, what play was it in that same bengals colts game when I want to say a DB maybe even a LB tried to hit luck when he ran for a first I believe and whacked him good, only to see that the defender was the one who got hurt! Luck is a massive QB who in all honesty can take a hit and always get back up, sorta like Eli Manning.

Rasp, everyone has a different philosophy when it comes to betting and its my opinion that "hedging" bets is something that isn't successful long-term or even really sort term. Understanding how to do it properly at certain times I can certainly understand someone using this method.....maybe your on such a bad streak and want to break the luck by making sure your guaranteed a winner, maybe your having such a good day and you want to end the day off without a big loser, or shit even if you just want to sound right about a bet during a game. In he end its my personal opinion that betting against your bigger bets is simply bad juju and if it were a method of success everyone would be doing it.

Retro, I don't know why you take my post so personally, do you get this way whenever someone has a different perspective as you? Call them moronic and tell them they're making zero sense and belittle them? I have thick skin and can take hits verbally and physcially and get right back up like iTarzan's boy Andy, so keep the insults coming if you must. Not trying to give lessons or obsessed with any of your bets, I just thought it was a good example of what NOT hedging your bet was and since I am such a moron who makes zero sense I thought I throw up an example of how to actually hedge your bet. You can get angry and upset with me all you want but if you know as much about gambling as you say you do then you know what you quoted me on is 100% right (and I am still working on passing my 101 class) and if you don't understand how that is by now than maybe you should take a lesson or two. Also you keep crowing you never lost a half time bet this season yet that Colts vs. Teaxans Thursday night game a couple weeks ago tells me everything I need to know about you, therefore I am done respectfully disagreeing with you.

 

[Storm Shadow]

Peyton ...Please Please...do not throw the ball to D.Thomas tonight... Welker and J.Thomas.... just tonight... please....also no reason the hand the ball off to Hillman.. Just chuck that rock 40+ times tonight and help my whack fantasy squad out!!


Desperate 3-4 and 4-3 Fantasy Teams<<< I started out 3-0 ... thought I had the season wrapped up ... lol I love me some any given Sunday .. Frosted Flukes

 

[iTarzan]

I have Demarius Thomas tonight Storm. I need him to keep it up. He had a slow start and has to cover for Megatron being out.

 

[Miraculous Meds]

Peyton ...Please Please...do not throw the ball to D.Thomas tonight... Welker and J.Thomas.... just tonight... please....also no reason the hand the ball off to Hillman.. Just chuck that rock 40+ times tonight and help my whack fantasy squad out!!


Desperate 3-4 and 4-3 Fantasy Teams<<< I started out 3-0 ... thought I had the season wrapped up ... lol I love me some any given Sunday .. Frosted Flukes

Good luck with that, everbody is gonna double j Thomas in the redzone from here on out. Maybe welker will get open for ya.

 

[iTarzan]

It was the play I posted about Otto. LB Burfict got his head twisted.

 

[RetroGrow]

Why ruin another thread Retro? I don't care what you bet on. It isn't even that you win that much because you don't. It is just boring and sad.

Like I care what a trolling pinhead thinks. And I could really care less what you think about my betting. it is none of your business, and not your problem. The idea here for me is to see if anyone has any good ideas that I may learn something from. In your case, that's impossible. But somebody may have some interesting picks, or some really bad picks, like you, and I can look at what you think and bet the opposite. So sorry your Orioles got SWEPT. Talk about a loser. Take a look in the mirror. And Peyton Manning is still worlds above Andrew Luck, despite your hero worship. Sorry you are losing, if you even have the balls to place a bet. I am on a winning streak, both in football & baseball, and can't wait for the NBA to start next week. I have increased my account eightfold in the last month, and have not lost a second half bet all year. You are an amateur, and basically know nothing about sports, except "go Baltimore". I don't root for teams, I try to make money off them. Just because I was born a Jet fan, doesn't mean i don't bet against them. There's no emotion involved for me. Just math, which is over your head. Enjoy your losing. Oh. That's right. You don't bet. No balls, and probably no money to bet with.
Anyway, tonight, I am all over Denver. If at halftime, it turns out I was wrong, I will switch sides and bet K.C.
But that's unlikely to happen. No more comments from the peanut gallery. Put your money where your mouth is, or STFU.
By the way, you should change your handle to iJane, 'cause you definitely not Tarzan. Too small brained to be Tarzan.
Keep trolling me, though.

 

[Miraculous Meds]

Gees retro,

I cant help but laugh...

Whats the line ur working off tonight retro?

 

[RetroGrow]

Good luck with that, everbody is gonna double j Thomas in the redzone from here on out. Maybe welker will get open for ya.

So you guys only play fantasy football? No real betting?

 

[Miraculous Meds]

So you guys only play fantasy football? No real betting?

No I don't play fantasy at all, I bet little 20 to $100 bets on individual games, and little 5 to $100 bets on parlays.

 

[whadeezlrg]

tonight, I am all over Denver. If at halftime, it turns out I was wrong, I will switch sides and bet K.C.

Denver is playing San diego btw...

what makes you feel like betting is any better than a high stakes fantasy league? or daily fantasy? it's the same concept, 50/50 leagues aren't a whole lot different than betting against the spread in terms of payout(pay is the rough equivalent of betting on -110 on the spread) if anything it's a safer bet because your playing vs. a pool of random people that are not nearly as knowledgeable as line-setters and you only have to finish in the top half of the field to cash, and the rest of the guys that make sure the house always comes out on top...just how I look at it anyways, but different strokes for different folks.