NFL 2014

[Ottoman]

P.S. don't know where you from but in NY the papers don't kiss the teams asses theirs is a reason its a known fact that new york is the hardest market to play sports in. I personally haven't read through any of them recently but I assume they are crushing the Jets like they always do.

 

[Bababooey]

I hate to say it but I think retro is right. I noticed I had the opposite picks as bababooey last week and won both cards I played. I will say that most of the time these parlay cards are coin flip games and its hard to win 3 coin flips in a row. Don't bet parlays for serious money, they are mainly small bets for fun.

Last week i went 3-0. maybe you were talking about 2 weeks ago, when i would have went 2-1 picking the home dogs, and you went 3-0?

I agree they should have beat the eagles cause there were big calls at the end of the game that changed that. But that didn't happen against Denver. Andrew luck had plenty of opportunities and got stuffed. The broncos beat them fair and square. Their defence had 2 goal line stands against Andrew luck. Cant keep blaming refs bro! Like I said before calls go both ways that both teams fans don't agree with. There were calls in the Denver seattle game that I didn't agree with should have made them 3-0.
Shoulda, coulda woulda gotta get over the past bro!

Every diehard fan can yell at their tv at every non-called hold, illegal block, defensive pi, etc. its what makes this sport so great. 'well if they had only called holding on that play that td would have come back and we would have won'. every team should be 16-0 in a die-hard's eyes.

retro, from the numbers I am looking at 55% of the best as of now are on the chargers which would make you think if the line that opened at 7 would adjust in favor for the jets, no? Well guess what bud bud, the line went DOWN to 6.5. It doesn't take a pro to know what that means in vegas betting terms. Lines don't change at all because of what the New york papers says and this a fact, the public perception from reading the papers might but Vegas/bookies love that. Lines will change based on the amount of money being placed on each side, so technically 90% of bets are on team A and only 10% on team B, just because more people bet on team A doesn't mean always the line is gonna change in their favor. Say those 90% of bets equal a million dollars and 10% of the bets on team B also equal a million the line won't budge because the pro betters/smart money set the lines up.

I'll have to stick to my guns and say that the smart money is on the Jets and public perception is betting on the chargers. The Jet D is sneaky good and a boarder line top 5 D in the NFL. It won't matter that Geno is a mistake waiting to happen when they can run the ball excellent at a 151 yards a game and the chargers all the while give up on average 100 yards a game on top of being the WORST red zone defense in all of football. This is one of those games where we'll see the chargers be the chargers, like I mention they fall in that category of teams that are always 8-8 like my boys or the lions, inconsistent teams at best. Also you've made a point i already mentioned and we agree on the Chargers can't run, if your playing D and the pass is coming and you know it, don't you think thats a huge advantage for the Jets?

whoa whoa, you are all getting way too statistical up in here.
its like what retro said: even the experts know nothing. its like what william goldman, a famous screenwriter said about hollywood: no one knows anything.
so you can make these perfectly valid and logical arguments in your head about how a game should go, but the fickle hands of fate could torpedo all your well reasoned logic. maybe keenan goes down with an injury and the sd receiving corps has to shuffle personnel and they lose chemistry. maybe a jets db goes down and the replacement actually functions much better. maybe geno gets lucky on a couple big plays and rivers gets unlucky.
the point is, you DONT KNOW. until you do.
since most seemed to have bet opposite me, i dont think i can wish you luck. but we'll see whos right and whos wrong, and the victors can crow about it and the losers can eat their excrement and praise the taste. or something like that.

 

[Ottoman]

I look at betting a whole different way than you baba, to say we don't know anything I have to disagree with, now if your gonna say no one can predict the future than well I agree whole heartily. We know numbers and this can help people interpret information and make a decision based on that info, so to say people are betting blindly and don't know anything I have to respectfully disagree. If I lose a bet on sunday I can live with it as long as it was where the smart money should go and yes their are people and groups of people that make a living off sports gambling so they must know something too IMO. Also if the experts didn't know anything I don't think they be making lines.

 

[Ottoman]

On a seperate note I happen to like your +7 washinston pick,

 

[iTarzan]

I like how fans of Cardinals, Seattle and San Fran seem very quick to point out how teams like Pats or Colts are in easy divisions. Pats have been in an easy div but Colts had to battle great Titan teams and very good Jag teams for years. And until the last 3 years any of the other teams in the Pats division (Bills, Jets and Dolphins would have won the NFC west year after year).

So in my book fans of any NFC West team can't complain about other divisions being weak for the next 10 years. Because that is how long the NFC West was the weakest, the crapiest division in all of football.

My god some years your division winner was .500 or 7-9. Get over yourselves. You aren't that good now. Soon some will find out that San Fran should have kept A. Smith and Russell Wilson isn't a franchise QB. That time is sooner than later.

As soon as Seattle has to pay some people they are going to find out that Wilson can't carry a team. He is a rider on the bus. He isn't the driver.

How in the heck did you NFC West fans get so full of yourselves so soon?

 

[iTarzan]

The Colts are coming. Be afraid! Be very, very afraid.

 

[Bababooey]

On a seperate note I happen to like your +7 washinston pick,

thanks, thats actually the pick i felt least good about, with seattles velociraptor db's and cousins having a 2nd half meltdown in his last game. but cousins isnt as bad as that. i think. seattles defense may make me a liar.

I look at betting a whole different way than you baba, to say we don't know anything I have to disagree with, now if your gonna say no one can predict the future than well I agree whole heartily. We know numbers and this can help people interpret information and make a decision based on that info, so to say people are betting blindly and don't know anything I have to respectfully disagree. If I lose a bet on sunday I can live with it as long as it was where the smart money should go and yes their are people and groups of people that make a living off sports gambling so they must know something too IMO. Also if the experts didn't know anything I don't think they be making lines.

so whats your system, ottoman?
betting the smart money gets you more wins but with the spread you get less reward. its picking the upsets that keeps you ahead of the bookmakers, those bastards. if you can consistently pick the upsets, then i can see you actually making a living at sports gambling (although i think 1% or less of gamblers can actually do this).

I like how fans of Cardinals, Seattle and San Fran seem very quick to point out how teams like Pats or Colts are in easy divisions. Pats have been in an easy div but Colts had to battle great Titan teams and very good Jag teams for years. And until the last 3 years any of the other teams in the Pats division (Bills, Jets and Dolphins would have won the NFC west year after year).

So in my book fans of any NFC West team can't complain about other divisions being weak for the next 10 years. Because that is how long the NFC West was the weakest, the crapiest division in all of football.

My god some years your division winner was .500 or 7-9. Get over yourselves. You aren't that good now. Soon some will find out that San Fran should have kept A. Smith and Russell Wilson isn't a franchise QB. That time is sooner than later.

As soon as Seattle has to pay some people they are going to find out that Wilson can't carry a team. He is a rider on the bus. He isn't the driver.

How in the heck did you NFC West fans get so full of yourselves so soon?

i think russell wilson a franchise qb. hes accurate, avoids turnovers and is the best scrambler in the league, he's like a mini roethlisberger the way he can extend plays and look for a pass.
kaepernick is more raw and other than the cowboys game has been... inconsistent this year. his o line has struggled protecting him, even kaep cant do much with an unblocked rusher in his face. boone held out of camp so hes probably still rounding into form. staley, well, dont know what his deal is hes a pro bowler but he's looking like a backup maybe he's hurt? martin at RT is getting bullied (pun intended) and the line as a whole is not the offense's strength anymore, affecting everything.
same problem with tom brady, he's got 1 or 2 seconds to throw most downs and that's throwing everything off. hes putting up rex grossman numbers. if his line was blocking well he'd be tom terrific again, he's done more with less. that decision to trade logan mankins to tampa in a salary dump makes you wonder if he was still on the team would they not be having these problems?

 

[Ottoman]

Really? I think that seattle will actually win the game outright but washington covers. I mean the jury is still out on cousins but we def know he isn't a terrible QB and can def fling it around with good accuracy. They have 2 really good WR's in Garcon and Jackson and a top RB in Alf. Also on the road Seattle's O can get a little stale so I think it can be a close game. Also looks like its opened up at 8.5 and is down to 7 now with 58% of bets being on Seattle, I read this as people with bigger bets or smarter betters are taking the skins, this would make me feel more comfortable placing money on them as I feel its the smart bet by way of how I read the numbers.

I don't really have a system to be honest more trying to not listen to too much TV likes espn, nfl network, etc... and just looks at numbers when comparing teams and games. I also go to pregame dot com and utilize their "spybook" which is free for anyone even without signing up. This page which I highly recommend to everyone shows the percentages of where bets are going but the amounts are confidential. Its the info of I believe 8-12 sportsbooks in which they organize and make open for the public to see, which is cool because I don't think anyone else does this, for free at least. If you scout the lines a couple times a day throughout the week you can see the %'s change and it helps give some loser better like myself an idea of at least where smart/big bets are going. Another big part of my "system" is not letting the record of the teams sway the way I am going to bet, i am more interested in numbers like yards per play, first downs, etc. That's why I feel strong about the Jets they've blown a couple games the past few weeks and could easily be 2-2 or even 3-1 with some proper play but instead they're 1-3 going into San Diego 7 point dogs, if they were 2-2 the line would be so much different maybe 3 or 4 and I don't think the Jets would be any better/worse of a team than they are now.

 

[whadeezlrg]

you almost got me...

no comment

 

[Bababooey]

nice find, ottoman. 80% of money line bets on bears-panthers is on the bears. hmmm. dont know what it was like early on in the week, so cant compare how it shifted, but that seems... interesting.
but if it doesnt track bet amounts, only % of bets on each team, then how are you to know where the big/smart money is going?
you cant, thats why you suck at this. haha im only joking.
i like the idea of using raw statistics like yds/play to evaluate the true ability of teams, does that have the tendency to remove the element of luck? or something. i guess that's what the experts use as well and sometimes it works, sometimes it doesnt...

 

[iTarzan]

you almost got me...

no comment

LOL!

Defend your team god damn it.

 

[Miraculous Meds]

nice find, ottoman. 80% of money line bets on bears-panthers is on the bears. hmmm. dont know what it was like early on in the week, so cant compare how it shifted, but that seems... interesting.
but if it doesnt track bet amounts, only % of bets on each team, then how are you to know where the big/smart money is going?
you cant, thats why you suck at this. haha im only joking.
i like the idea of using raw statistics like yds/play to evaluate the true ability of teams, does that have the tendency to remove the element of luck? or something. i guess that's what the experts use as well and sometimes it works, sometimes it doesnt...

Evaluation of how teams match up, position vs position, is a valuable tool. But im no pro, id be broke if I bet real big money. lol we know in the end who really makes the money is the guys facilitating the bets, and maybe a small handful of pros that can measure every single aspect of teams, locations, and weather.

 

[Miraculous Meds]

I think the niners would already have a superbowl if they had kept alex smith. I don't think they can win it with kaepernick.

 

[RetroGrow]

I think the niners would already have a superbowl if they had kept alex smith. I don't think they can win it with kaepernick.

Agreed. Kapaerneck is a good athlete, but stupid.
I think the 49ers have the dumbest players in the league.
Alex Smith is a better QB.

 

[Miraculous Meds]

Agreed. Kapaerneck is a good athlete, but stupid.
I think the 49ers have the dumbest players in the league.
Alex Smith is a better QB.

they sure are damn talented though.

 

[whadeezlrg]

notable wonderlic scores:

Peyton Manning - 28
Tom Brady - 33
Dan Marino - 15
Andrew Luck - 37
Colin Kaepernick - 38
Matt Stafford - 38
Ryan Fitzpatrick(From Harvard) - 48

out of a possible 50pts...

Speculating on someone's intelligence based on the fact that they happen to be a great athlete is a difficult assumption to make...we all know what can be said of those that assume.

I liked Alex Smith a lot, I disagreed with the way things happened but at the end of he day all we can do is speculate, for all anyone of us knows he would have beaten Baltimore in the big one...or maybe he chokes vs the falcons....or greenbay gets the in in the divisional rd because kaepernick wasn't the starter and therefore couldn't of put up 181yds on the ground to seal the W(that was a great game...SO glad I was at that one...5th row corner of the endzone...same corner that he scored the long one on)....the past is the past. This season could be the one to tie us up with the steelers w/ 6, or it couldn't...I hope the former is the case.

 

[Miraculous Meds]

notable wonderlic scores:

Peyton Manning - 28
Tom Brady - 33
Dan Marino - 15
Andrew Luck - 37
Colin Kaepernick - 38
Matt Stafford - 38
Ryan Fitzpatrick(From Harvard) - 48

out of a possible 50pts...

Speculating on someone's intelligence based on the fact that they happen to be a great athlete is a difficult assumption to make...we all know what can be said of those that assume.

Football iq my brother. During game time.

What do they say about those that assume?

A better question is who are they?

 

[whadeezlrg]

not exactly dude, read up on it....over 40,000 US employers use the wonderlic as a means of testing potential employees...not football IQ...gotta watch those assumptions

copied and pasted-

On Monday morning, I took a proctored Wonderlic test, which has been made famous by the NFL but is used by more than 40,000 employers across the country to find qualified job candidates.

The test consists of 50 fairly simple questions – example of an easier question: A train travels 20 feet in 1/5 second. At this speed, how far will it travel in three seconds? – but the trick is the time.

You have just 12 minutes to finish the test (roughly 14 seconds per question). The average score is a 21. NFL players average 20. I scored a 29, which is in the 88 percentile and equates to an IQ of 118.

That’s a pretty good score (anything above 28 indicates an employee who should be in upper management; somebody alert my bosses at the RGJ), but Kaepernick reportedly scored a 38 when he took the test at the 2011 NFL combine, which is 14 points higher than the average quarterback score.

 

[Bababooey]

blah, blippity blah blah madden!


blah blah madden!



see, kaepernick is stupid. he cant even rap.

 

[Storm Shadow]

I need to start Vincent Jackson or Ty Hilton tomorrow ... Im leaning to towards Hilton because Luck is on fire and Ty hasn't had his breakout performance yet... on the flip side... Evans being out...and Glennon QB means V-Jax could put up some #'s....but I don't like his last second stats being saved by TD's

I will most likely mess up and start the wrong person... last week... I pulled a lame duck move... I benched Asiata at the last second for Steven Jackson ... one scored 30+ fantasy points and the other 7


Peyton Manning... please oh please... 400/5 please

Monte Ball 140 yds 2tds.... come on man!!!