Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[TNTBudSticker]

As bad as all the news is I reckon the shorts are more scared than the longs.

Yup..True....This week I am watching-Long Pifer...PFE and They paid a dividend today.This usually caused the bears to step in and scalp a few since money is being paid out.RSI kinda weak.Give it a few days.Kinda doing a market performing stunt.A tad'ol Outperform it could be leading.

VRTX is being shorted like crazy with someone at 800% gain and 200% gain.I'm 4th at 104% .. I just shorted it with paper trading options....lol

We'll Know by tomorrow if I can pare back with the house's money.

Gold looking Nice!!

Ford looking nice with the news of Boss Mustangs Coming out.That's going to tap into the Hot Rod Market.I still think the Ford's union should divert folks to buy the stock rather than a profit sharing plan with solid chunks of cash.Investors are the Ones that should get paid First. IMHO

 

[SpasticGramps]

According to BarclaysLeamBrothers Italy may have just crossed the Rubicon.

Barclays Says Italy Is Finished: "Mathematically Beyond Point Of No Return"

Summary from Barclays Capital inst sales:

1) At this point, it seems Italy is now mathematically beyond point of no return
2) While reforms are necessary, in and of itself not be enough to prevent crisis
3) Reason? Simple math--growth and austerity not enough to offset cost of debt
4) On our ests, yields above 5.5% is inflection point where game is over
5) The danger:high rates reinforce stability concerns, leading to higher rates
6) and deeper conviction of a self sustaining credit event and eventual default
7) We think decisions at eurozone summit is step forward but EFSF not adequate
8) Time has run out--policy reforms not sufficient to break neg mkt dynamics
9) Investors do not have the patience to wait for austerity, growth to work
10) And rate of change in negatives not enuff to offset slow drip of positives
11) Conclusion: We think ECB needs to step up to the plate, print and buy bonds
12) At the moment ECB remains unwilling to be lender last resort on scale needed
13) But frankly will have hand forced by market given massive systemic risk

Print or perish.

 

[rasputin]

Crossing the Rubicon is a deliberate decision. This is a bit different, in that indecision has brought them here. Head-in-the-sand isn't a viable economic policy, so we're learning.

 

[TNTBudSticker]

Heard Pifer-PFE got downgraded yesterday.But it's close to it's 52 weeks high at a low RSI(65) so I'll have to watch to see if anything comes out of it.

So I ran over to the food processing companies.Now BGS looks good and it hit its 52 week high yesterday with a med-high RSI (77).

Wow...Such a nice Yield of 4%

The Dow is hitting it's 25-100 MA right on it's nose.Tap Tap.

 

[The iD]

italian bunds hit 7%, euro-era record. contagion has reached the core. i have a large short position stacked till into March. heavy into defense, medical, RE, tech, momos. inverse ETFs are cheaper than when i set up for aug. vix is double tho. what hasnt struck for nov. has been rolled back. DMND was a big winner (loser). prolly will pop back to 80 now. VRUS is running well so far. 67.50 is support. WTW just started making a run lower after this unreal squeeze. still plenty of earnings to be released. only a couple weeks till options expiry. large movement always seems to happen right after then. 'bout to strangle dec w/ some calls on the dip, had let nov's run up to 1275s&p as planned. stay frosty,

-iD

 

[SpasticGramps]

Crossing the Rubicon is a deliberate decision. This is a bit different, in that indecision has brought them here. Head-in-the-sand isn't a viable economic policy, so we're learning.

Good point. I guess a better analogy would be the market just threw Italy over the cliff and into the abyss.

Next up France, then Germany, then the US. China and Japan somewhere in between? The contagion has officially infected the Euro core. French yields are starting to rise. Dominoes are falling more quickly now.

Will Zimbabwe bail out Italy? That headline should make for 50 on the S&P.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Italy Bond Attack Breaches Euro Defenses, Contagion Worsens Bloomberg

The euro-region’s defenses are being breached.

Investors today propelled Italy’s 10-year bond yield to close at a euro-era high of 7.25 percent after the promised exit of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi failed to convince them that his country can slash Europe’s second-largest debt burden.

The biggest signal yet that the single currency’s third- largest economy is falling prey to its two-year debt crisis forces German Chancellor Angela Merkel, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and their peers to decide just how far they’re willing to go to defend the euro.

“The market is testing the commitment of the euro zone’s stewards,” said Eric Chaney, Paris-based chief economist at insurer AXA SA and a former official in the French Finance Ministry. “Italy is the real crisis battleground.”

How can this be? Merkel and Sarkozy said they saved the world on Oct 26. What happened to the "firewall" and the "ring fence" and the "bazooka" and those other hilarious Neo-Keyensian fantasy land economic terms. Where are the unicorns? We need more unicorns.

Italy may be the black swan which unleashes the contagion in Europe. It's like a game of hot potato right now. The contagion is spreading quickly as the Keynesian can kickers scramble to hold the dominoes up.

 

[Tripsick]

Not only are they too big to fail they now say too big to save.

Good times ahead. and then there is always Iran and its nuke program set to step in and take over this great distraction

 

[SpasticGramps]

Not only are they too big to fail they now say too big to save.

Yep, it's the Keynesian conundrum.

Good times ahead. and then there is always Iran and its nuke program set to step in and take over this great distraction

Paul Krugman must be jumping up and down at the prospect of another Great War to end this recession. When the economy is shit, go to war cause war is great for the economy. It's the American way, right?

Or so states the widely embraced Neo-Keynesian reasoning.

Dow 11,781 -389 -3.20%

Nasdaq 2,622 -106 -3.88%

S&P 500 1,229 -47 -3.67%
GlobalDow 1,825 -51 -2.73%

Gold 1,771 -28 -1.56%

Oil 96.09 -0.71 -0.73%

We almost got to S&P 1300 in this bear market rally. Italy going down the tubes is the nail in the coffin for it IMO, although I'm sure the rumor mill headline machine will be out in full force. Any mention of massive printing by the ECB will send the market to the moon.

 

[Sam the Caveman]

Zerohedge has really gained some credibility in the financial sector. Traders Audio is reporting news from their website in their audio news feed.

Thats a $250/mo news feed.

 

[Sam the Caveman]

Keizer Report "Gold Wars"

I think these two have a smoke out session before they film this

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAPM7syIcts

 

[SpasticGramps]

Max is great.

Fucking SDR's lol.

 

[tr1ck_]

An Irishman explains wallstreet

[YOUTUBEIF]UrUzKH_A2m8[/YOUTUBEIF]

Piss Off, Sir. I'm going for a pint!

 

[TNTBudSticker]

Wow....Copper mightier than the sword?

Copper Sword item stolen from Lincoln's Tomb for its value as a collectible or as scrap?

SomeOne Stole Lincoln's Copper Sword a few days ago.

ForGet That.It's .999 Metal or it's nothing.

 

[The iD]

more symbolic to me than anything. the last time that same sword was stolen off his tomb was in 1913, the same year the FedRez was enacted. honest Abe and the American School of Economics is literally and figuratively disarmed. stay frosty,

-iD

 

[SpasticGramps]

Going to need a bigger bazooka.

Citi Chief Economist Willem Buiter: A Spanish Or Italian Default Could Happen In A Few Short Days

Citi's Willem Buiter whose succinct analysis a few weeks ago sealed the coffin of the worthless EFSF, has just come out with another knock out punch this morning after telling Bloomberg TV what everyone else knows is true, but is terrified to say out loud: namely that, "time is running out fast." He adds: " I think we have maybe a few months -- it could be weeks, it could be days -- before there is a material risk of a fundamentally unnecessary default by a country like Spain or Italy which would be a financial catastrophe dragging the European banking system and North America with it. So they have to act now." In sum - a rehash of the Deutsche Bank pitchbook to the ECB we posted earlier, only in Mutually Assured Terms that would make even Hank Paulson blush. At this point Germany has an option: tell Europe to take a hike, or go balls to wall in bailing out 250 million European's early retirement packages. The ball is in Merkel's court, who unlike Citi, JPM, DB, and everyone else, has to worry about this fickle, and potentially pitchfork bearing, thing called "voters."

 

[Sam the Caveman]

Merkel will be the good politician she is and overextend germany for as long as she can, to her own political detriment.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Somebody (ECB, FED, both) is going to have to start monetizing soon. It's crunch time.

I wonder if Germany leaves the euro if the ECB starts full scale printing? It's going to really piss off a already agitated German electorate.

 

[Sam the Caveman]

I think the ecb will start before the fed does, right now the european situation is pushing around the american markets. If the ECB starts printing, it will calm things down over there for another 3 months at most.

If that doesn't help the american markets gain some momentum, then I can see the fed starting to print.

But it really doesn't matter, because once everyone realizes the american economy is getting worse, everyone is still going to be pissed and printing money won't help anyone but the institutions everyone hates. Fueling the rage.

addition; them printing more money will not help in the long run (one year), whether its the ECB or the FED.

 

[SpasticGramps]

I agree Sam. The ECB must print now or the Euro dies. When the ECB prints the FED will have to print to keep the USD devalued. Given that, Japan will have to print and so forth. The joys of currency wars.

Given this weeks market action I'd say we are approaching a Mexican Standoff. Print or Die Europe.

In financial circles the Mexican Standoff is typically used to connote a situation where one side wants something, like a concession of some sort, and is offering nothing of value, and the other side sees no value in agreeing to any changes so refuses to negotiate. Although both sides can benefit from the change, neither side can agree to a compensation value for agreeing to the change and nothing is accomplished.
This expression came into usage during the last decade of the 19th century; the Cambridge Dictionary makes an unattributed claim that the term is of Australian origin.[2]

Playing Chicken With The ECB: The Market Has Issued A Boycott On Draghi Until He Prints

If over the past several days the market has seemed as if it is acting more irrational than normal, there is a simple explanation for this: the volumes across all products have collapsed. This includes equities, bonds, single name CDS and index CDS. In essence the market has virtually ground to a halt as the chart below demonstrates. Why?

There are two explanations: one is that this gradual shut down of the market is in fact an unintended and delayed consequence of the MF Global bankruptcy, which has seen material liquidity withdrawn from the non-TBTF, which in turn is impacting overall market stability and functioning.

The other theory, espoused by BofA's Hans Mikkelsen in tonight's Situation Room publication is that this is nothing short of a boycott by the market on the ECB, and thus the global capital market system, in an attempt to force the European central bank to resolve the helpless situation in which Europe finds itself, where on one side Germany is staunchly against printing more currency for fears of hyperinflation, and instead demands changes to the Eurozone treaty whereby everyone hands over sovereignty to an uber Eurozone headed naturally by Germany, and on the other we have France et al. pushing for immediate monetization but without transfer of sovereignty to Merkel. Obviously the risk is that should Merkel, who has all the leverage, be pushed too far she may simply balk and say "nein, nein, nein" in the process killing the EUR with one statement. Of course Germany will lose from this chain of events as well, which is why as we have claimed for nearly a year, the fundamental equation for Europe is whether the opportunity cost of constantly bailing out European countries and/or taking on the risk of hyperinflation is worth the benefit gained by German exporters from not having a strong Deutsche Mark. We don't know the answer. But apparently BofA does: "We are all waiting for the catalyst to a better or worse market - to us this means that the markets are now waiting for the ECB to step in." And naturally, just like with Deutsche Bank which put together the case for intervention, the outcome is one where the ECB will do everything in its power to resume the Risk On posture. So under what conditions will the ECB step in? Well, BofA conveniently gives us the answer to that as well. Let's dig in.

First, this, according to Bank of America, is how the market is institutes a boycott on the ECB:

Another day, another country sets new highs in interest rates. This time it was Spain following a 10-year auction that cleared at a record yield of 6.975% (vs. 5.433% previously). That represents just the latest episode in a succession of events that sustain the market concern that Europe is not up to its task – in which case the risk of a significant sell-off in the markets is high. Faced with such binary outcomes from an inherently political process, many investors naturally choose to sit on the sidelines and liquidity further dries up. Thus we have seen significant declines in trading volumes of high grade and high yield bonds, as well as single name CDS and index CDS products. We are all waiting for the catalyst to a better or worse market - to us this means that the markets are now waiting for the ECB to step in. The good news is that it seems the European situation gets resolved in a way that allows US markets to decouple and get back to business sooner rather than later – one way or the other. While the relevant time horizon is highly uncertain it feels more like a matter of two weeks than two months.