Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[SpasticGramps]

Rumor Denied.

IMF Package Denial Sends ES And EURUSD Tumbling

Well they bought the rumor and now comes the sell-the-news/rumor/denial part of the evening as Dow Jones cites an official that 'No Discussion Within G-7 Of Reported Large Package For Italy".

EUR lost 40pips and ES around 10pts as the latter compressed close to CONTEXT's broad risk view of the world.

In the meantime - Some comments, via Bloomberg, from China not helping sentiment

*MOFCOM'S CHEN: EU RESCUE FUNDING STILL FACES SHORTFALL :MOCZ CH
*MOFCOM'S CHEN: CHINA OBSERVING QUIETLY EURO SITUATION :MOCZ CH
*MOFCOM'S CHEN: WORLD ECONOMY FACES DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON EU DEBT

And on China.

China Profit Growth Slowing as Property Curbs Bite Bloomberg

Chinese corporate profit growth, slowing on waning export demand from Europe, may be further undermined as a campaign to cool property prices reduces the value of investments.
Industrial companies’ net income rose 12.5 percent in October from a year earlier, less than half the 27 percent pace from January to September, a statistics bureau statement showed yesterday.
The slowdown adds to evidence that Europe’s deepening financial crisis and a faltering recovery in the U.S. are weighing on profits. More than 60 percent of Chinese companies that sold bonds in the past six months invest in the real estate market, where sales are weakening under government curbs that Vice Premier Li Keqiang pledged on Nov. 25 to maintain.
“The slowdown of the economy will become more prominent in the next two quarters,” said Wang Tao, a Hong Kong-based economist for UBS AG who has also worked for the International Monetary Fund. She said that industrial companies’ profit growth may keep cooling and the government may enact “more obvious policy loosening in the first quarter of next year.”
The government can support growth by ramping up state housing construction, while moderating inflation may leave room for monetary policy loosening.
China’s economy can avoid a so-called hard landing with an expansion of more than 8 percent next year, Wang said. The economy grew 10.4 percent in 2010 and 9.1 percent in the third quarter of this year.
Noyer on Crisis
In Tokyo, Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer said the crisis in Europe, China’s biggest export market, has worsened “significantly” over the past few weeks and bond markets in the euro area “are not functioning normally.”
Asian stocks jumped on speculation that the International Monetary Fund will aid Italy, a topic that Noyer declined to discuss. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.9 percent as of 1:16 p.m. in Tokyo, the first increase in four days.

 

[SpasticGramps]

We've reached the climax of the European Debt Crisis. Resolution, one way or the other, is likely to come in days now. The ECB is already printing to the tune of $60bil a month. The only real way out of this is for all EU countries to give up their sovereignty and become debt slaves to unelected autocrats in Brussels. Something is about to give though.

The eurozone really has only days to avoid collapse Financial Times

In virtually all the debates about the eurozone I have been engaged in, someone usually makes the point that it is only when things get bad enough, the politicians finally act – eurobond, debt monetisation, quantitative easing, whatever. I am not so sure. The argument ignores the problem of acute collective action.

Last week, the crisis reached a new qualitative stage. With the spectacular flop of the German bond auction and the alarming rise in short-term rates in Spain and Italy, the government bond market across the eurozone has ceased to function.

The banking sector, too, is broken. Important parts of the eurozone economy are cut off from credit. The eurozone is now subject to a run by global investors, and a quiet bank run among its citizens.

This massive erosion of trust has also destroyed the main plank of the rescue strategy. The European Financial Stability Facility derives its firepower from the guarantees of its shareholders. As the crisis has spread to France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Austria, the EFSF itself is affected by the contagious spread of the disease. Unless something very drastic happens, the eurozone could break up very soon.

 

[Tripsick]

Obama saves Europe im mean he says they can do it on their own.. im sure Americas next...

 

[SpasticGramps]

Yeah America is going to bailout Europe according to O. That should go over nicely.

Everyone is saying they are going to bail everyone else out except no real details for any of the "plans" have materialized since July 21 Greece bailout and that's already falling apart.

IMO, it's all a bunch of jaw boning to keep the markets propped up for as long as they can until the looting is complete. The market is going to eventually laugh at all of them.

IMO, the dominoes will fall with the PIIGS first, then Germany and France, then Japan, China, and finally the USA will get sucked into the sovereign crisis. At that point I'm guessing the rumors will be "Zimbabwe says it will lend Western World 2 quadrillion dollars. We're Saved!"

 

[SpasticGramps]

Looks like more cooky tin foil hat wearing multi-national business CEO's are planning for a Euro disintegration.

Businesses plan for possible end of euro Financial Times

International companies are preparing contingency plans for a possible break-up of the eurozone, according to interviews with dozens of multinational executives.

Concerned that Europe’s political leaders are failing to control the spreading sovereign debt crisis, business executives say they feel compelled to protect their companies against a crash that can no longer be wished away. When German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Nicolas Sarkozy raised the prospect of a Greek exit from the eurozone earlier this month, it marked the first time that senior European officials had dared to question the permanence of their 13-year-old experiment with monetary union.

“We’ve started thinking what [a break-up] might look like,” Andrew Morgan, president of Diageo Europe, said on Tuesday. “If you get some much bigger kind of ... change around the euro, then we are into a different situation altogether. With countries coming out of the euro, you’ve got massive devaluation that makes imported brands very, very expensive.”

Executives’ concerns are emerging as eurozone finance ministers weigh ever more radical options to tackle the sovereign debt crisis, including the possibility of funnelling European Central Bank loans to struggling countries via the International Monetary Fund.

Car manufacturers, energy groups, consumer goods firms and other multinationals are taking care to minimise risks by placing cash reserves in safe investments and controlling non-essential expenditure. Siemens, the engineering group, has even established its own bank in order to deposit funds with the European Central Bank.

Some are examining expert advice on the legal consequences of a eurozone split for cross-border commercial contracts and loan agreements. By contrast, most small and medium-sized firms have made few, if any financial and legal preparations.

“Market participants and, increasingly, real businesses are pricing in a break-up scenario,” said Jean Pisani-Ferry, director of the Brussels-based Bruegel think-tank. “It is still hard to think the unthinkable, let alone to work out the details of it, but any rational player has to consider the possibility of it.”

 

[Sam the Caveman]

Some people are getting flithy rich off insider information from all these rumors, its one big circus.

 

[TNTBudSticker]

Eurozone countries have enormous debts that must be refinanced — with €638 billion ($852 billion) coming due in 2012 alone, 40 percent of which needs to be refinanced before May,according to Barclays Capital.

A failure of the euro would lead to drastic consequences around the world.Bank lending would freeze, stock markets would likely crash, European economies would go into a freefall,and the U.S. and Asia would take big hits to their economies as their exports to Europe collapsed.

Italy remained an enormous concern.Carrying five times as much debt as Greece,Italy was battered for the third straight day Tuesday in the bond markets,seeing its borrowing rates soar to unsustainable levels of 7.56 percent.Investors appear increasingly wary of the country’s chances of avoiding default — and making matters worse,the eurozone’s third largest economy is deemed too big for Europe to bail out.

Stocking Stuff News Italy 's next...They say they plan to balance the budget in 2012.We'll see.

 

[Sam the Caveman]

 

[SpasticGramps]

Massive FED and other Global Central bank interventions overnight. Forbes hinted to the fact that a Major European Bank almost went under last night. Massive market rally under way. This just confirms how dire the situation is. The half life of each bailout is getting shorter and shorter and shorter.

This FED bailout of the world doesn't solve the liquidity freeze and certainly won't solve the solvency crisis. This may have bought them time until the Dec 9 EU Crisis Summit #21.

Funny thing is most Americans have no idea that their central bank and thus themselves are on the hook for Europe's sovereign debt.

 

[Sam the Caveman]

yeah, I can tell there is some major intervening in the markets today. The price action looks totally controlled.

Housing numbers came out great today and ...not much of a move, then oil numbers came out and ...not much of a move either. Very unusual, the housing numbers were good and the oil numbers were bad.

That huge move at 8 am this morning I'm guessing is being propped up by the same people messing with the market today.

Its a losing battle trying to trade intraday today.

 

[Hydrosun]

Funny thing is most Americans have no idea that their central bank and thus themselves are on the hook for Europe's sovereign debt.

This is simply not true. It is all a fake ponzi, and we are all at the point of a gun; but none of us are on the hook for ANYONE else's debt. I wasn't born a communist slave, even if they want to dress me as one and parade me around a gun point.

Fuck all of them and their fake / immoral claims to other's productivity.

 

[Tripsick]

Damn Imagine how high the markets would go if the FED decided to bail out the american people... Im sure they could have sent us all a check for 500k by the time this is all said and done with

Hell, no checks even just an electronic transfer. i would hate for them to waste money on paper.

 

[SpasticGramps]

This is simply not true. It is all a fake ponzi, and we are all at the point of a gun; but none of us are on the hook for ANYONE else's debt. I wasn't born a communist slave, even if they want to dress me as one and parade me around a gun point.

Fuck all of them and their fake / immoral claims to other's productivity.

Of course we are on the hook. You got stuck the bill for the housing bubble and now we are getting stuck with the bill for Europes failed socialist dream. That's what socialized losses mean. All loses are passed onto the citizens via taxes and inflation. As the standard of living continues to rapidly decline and prices rise these socialized losses are being realized. By you, me, and everyone else.

We can fancy ourselves free in our minds. As I do, but when it comes down to the pocket book you and I and every other poor sucker loses and the ruling class wins. It's just how privatized gains and socialized loses work.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Ron Paul just released a statement about this mornings FED bailout of Europe. Here is part of it.

Rather than calming markets, these arrangements should indicate just how frightened governments around the world are about the European financial crisis.* Central banks are grasping at straws, hoping that flooding the world with money created out of thin air will somehow resolve a crisis caused by uncontrolled government spending and irresponsible debt issuance.* Congress should not permit this type of open-ended commitment on the part of the Fed, a commitment which could easily run into the trillions of dollars.* These dollar swaps are purely inflationary and will harm American consumers as much as any form of quantitative easing.*

The Fed is behaving much as it did during the 2008 financial crisis, only this time instead of bailing out politically well-connected too-big-to-fail firms it is bailing out profligate government spending. Citizens the world over deserve better than this. They deserve sound money that cannot be manipulated and created out of thin air by central planners who promise printed prosperity. Fiat money caused this European crisis and the financial crisis before it.* More fiat money is not the cure. The global fiat currency system has proven itself a failure, we need real monetary reform. We need sound money.

 

[SpasticGramps]

yeah, I can tell there is some major intervening in the markets today. The price action looks totally controlled.

Housing numbers came out great today and ...not much of a move, then oil numbers came out and ...not much of a move either. Very unusual, the housing numbers were good and the oil numbers were bad.

That huge move at 8 am this morning I'm guessing is being propped up by the same people messing with the market today.

Its a losing battle trying to trade intraday today.

Just as Hank Paulson leaked the collapse to a few hedge funds. This latest global bailout was decided on Monday as per the FOMC minutes released today. There was some internal dissent.

Lots of front running by insiders I'm sure.

 

[yesum]

Well I am long S&P so I am happy, even if the rally is over nothing much. I am guessing we go higher thru the rest of the year. I think gold will be higher at end of this year and the next.

No idea of stocks for next year, a real mixed bag there.

 

[SpasticGramps]

No idea of stocks for next year, a real mixed bag there.

Here are the global long term chart PMI (manufacturing indices). Below 50 is macro contraction. Something to consider when setting up next year's trades.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Latest rumor is out. America is going to bailout the world with monopoly money. Congrats Comrades not only are we going to monetize our own structural deficits we are going to monetize Europe's toxic debt too.

Print or Die. Markets should soar on this rumor IMO.

The Latest Rumor: Fed To Fund IMF, Bypassing Congressional Refusal Of European Bailout

While we have long been mocking any rumors representing formal attempts to get the IMF's funding to higher level, due to the need for a congressional approval over and beyond what is currently permitted which means any such plan is DOA, one loophole always has been the private bank known as the Federal Reserve, which may, as permitted by its charter since its charter allows it to do pretty much anything even buy Greek and EFSF, not to mention Italian, bonds, lend to the IMF at will. And just as last week demonstrated, when push comes to shove the Fed will always bail out Europe, so tonight German paper Die Welt (which has about the same success rate as Thomas Stolper at predicting the future) had put two and two together and come up with the latest rumor, namely that Ben Bernanke is about to directly bail out Europe using the IMF as an intermediary. Via Reuters, "The Federal Reserve, along with the 17 euro zone national central banks, may help provide the International Monetary Fund with funds that could be used to aid debt-ridden states, a German newspaper said. Die Welt cited sources close to the negotiations as saying the euro zone central banks could pay at least 100 billion euros ($134.2 billion) into a special fund that could be used for programs for nations struggling to control their debts. "Also other central banks, for example the U.S. Federal Reserve, are apparently prepared to finance a part of the costs," the paper said in an advance copy of an article to appear on Monday." That there is not an iota of truth in this article is a given, yet the market will latch on to this latest rumor like a rabid pitbull... until it realizes that by having to resort to such grotesquely made up stories it means that the ECB, which is the only real short-term rescue mechanism for Europe, is nowhere near close agreeing to do what the bulk of Europe's bankers (but not Goldman) demand it do - print.

The four remaining anti-printing hawks are set to step down begining next year. This means the FED will be completely stacked with Dove. They'll be able to turn on the printers full blast with no official dissent.

 

[Tripsick]

S&P puts 15 eurozone governments on notice

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Standard & Poor's said Monday that it placed 15 members of the euro currency union on review for a possible downgrade as the debt crisis in the eurozone continues to worsen.
The blanket warning applies to AAA-rated nations such as Germany, France, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland and Luxembourg, the U.S.-based credit rating agency said in a press release.
But the review does not change anything for two members of the 17-nation monetary and currency union. Greece's credit rating currently reflects a high risk of default, and Cyprus was already under review.
S&P said the review was prompted "by our belief that systemic stresses in the eurozone have risen in recent weeks to the extent that they now put downward pressure on the credit standing of the eurozone as a whole."
The agency sees five factors behind the current debt crisis: Tightening credit conditions, rising yields on bonds issued by top rated sovereigns, ongoing political deadlock over how to deal with the crisis, high levels of government and household debt, and the rising risk that Europe will suffer an economic recession next year.
France is already seen as the most likely candidate to be striped of its AAA status. But the decision to review Germany, the euro area's most creditworthy nation, points to the severity of the crisis.
Other euro area nations have already seen their ratings slashed by S&P, a division of McGraw-Hill. Most recently, S&P cut its rating on Belgium late last month.

 

[Sam the Caveman]

Yup, made some good money when that story broke.