Obama administration warns Oakland on pot farms

[SmilinBob]

compared to what? 10x that much just crossed the boarder today. Now times that by 30.

You think 570,000 pounds of bud crosses the border every month? Is there a point your trying to make? 1900 lbs is a lot. That is what I said. You don't think it's a lot? Comparable in weight to the trim you throw out right? Yea, compared to half a million(which I doubt is based on anything) it's not. But compared to other dispensaries? Isn't that who is going to take the hit in prices?

$1k a pound. 1.9m a month. Yea, that's a lot

 

[supersmallgiant]

I live on a NON medical COAST

Didn't know there was one...

 

[jakeh]

The big farms are going to drive out the low end of the market. I bet you will still see the mom and pops producing top notch that will command a great price and then some. If I had to guess it will end up looking like the current wine market where you can buy a $5 bottle of cabernet or $100 plus bottle of pinot. Budweiser took a large market share but by doing so also created the microbrew market that is alive and well. Marijuana will follow a similar pattern.

 

[BiG H3rB Tr3E]

The big farms are going to drive out the low end of the market. I bet you will still see the mom and pops producing top notch that will command a great price and then some. If I had to guess it will end up looking like the current wine market where you can buy a $5 bottle of cabernet or $100 plus bottle of pinot. Budweiser took a large market share but by doing so also created the microbrew market that is alive and well. Marijuana will follow a similar pattern.

^^^^^
Not according to the economic professors we have here on ICMAG. /sarcasm


Somehow all these peons believe that the 62lbs per day is going to be the best of the best marijuana or they think that all of a sudden everyone is going to stop caring about quality. They also fail to realize that with california being a major tourism destination and MJ becoming legal to sale to anyone 21+ that the demand is DEFINATLY going to go up. Combined with the people who dont smoke because its illegal and those who would visit california simply to enjoy our world famous cannabis, the demand is going to SKYROCKET.

And to all you who think a pound is going to cost $50 in a legal market. Get real. You really think these people are intelligent enough to construct these massive ganja production warehouses, then produce so much that they drive themselfs out of business through dirt cheap prices?

I dont know what its going to take to get marijuana legal. Im just thankful smokers outnumber growers and dealers 1000:1 as we have seen that all of the emerald triangle could vote against legalization and hardly make an impact on the overall vote....

Hopefully the GOP will flop on finding a candidate that appeals to republicans and tea party members (i say tamatoe you say tahmahto) and the democrats will have a big turnout.

AND YOU FUCKING YOUTH VOTERS: TAKE A BREAK FROM YOUR BONG AND YOUR XBOX360 AND GET THE FUCK OUT AND VOTE TO LEGALIZE. JUST BECAUSE YOU GOT A 215 CARD DONT MEAN YOU CANT GET ARRESTED!!!! ASK ME HOW I KNOW.....

 

[crazybear]

I kind of have to find it humorous when we talk about a business like this being big...

What happens when we deregulate and apply free trade?

Does anyone doubt that if we legalize 90% of the world will follow? (I'm not against legalization by the way)

I'd buy imported authentic cheap thai sticks before the bland indoor crap (great taste and bag appeal I have to admit) I've been getting at dispensaries.

It's mostly the US that is keeping other countries from making cannabis legal, because the US is the greatest democratic country don't you know!

 

[jakeh]

"And to all you who think a pound is going to cost $50 in a legal market. Get real. You really think these people are intelligent enough to construct these massive ganja production warehouses, then produce so much that they drive themselfs out of business through dirt cheap prices?"

I read many years ago if you are going to sell something for a $1 you better be able to manufacture it for 10 cents. This obviously does not hold true for large ticket items like cars and houses but I bet it is in line with the average crap you buy at walmart. I've seen where the cost of producing top grade mj is $500 a lb which would be in line with the manufactured vs retail price. Time will tell.

 

[Greensub]

"And to all you who think a pound is going to cost $50 in a legal market.

I wouldn't be surprised if you could get that deal now... somewhere in the world.

You really think these people are intelligent enough to construct these massive ganja production warehouses, then produce so much that they drive themselfs out of business through dirt cheap prices?"

I think this type of business model (production wise) will have a limited run of feasibility, but will work well for this particular interim in the slow progress of re-legalization.

I read many years ago if you are going to sell something for a $1 you better be able to manufacture it for 10 cents. This obviously does not hold true for large ticket items like cars and houses but I bet it is in line with the average crap you buy at walmart.

Sounds about right...

I've seen where the cost of producing top grade mj is $500 a lb which would be in line with the manufactured vs retail price. Time will tell.

I would guess that figure to be accurate at this period of time... but if legal conditions were more favorably disposed towards large production, economy of scale would lower that number.

I've seen it said on here many times that legalization will be process not an event. Let me give some examples from my mind. I'm not arguing that legalization will progress exactly in this fashion, but I do believe it will be a number of baby steps throughout the coming years.

Theoretically (in my head), California legalizes first but goes head to head with the feds for awhile (1-2 decades as other states slowly join us).

What would be the limiting factors of economies of scale?

• Feds still enforcing 100 plant count cut-off? (they don't always even pay attention to that).
• No interstate commerce other than smuggling (can we expect DEA checkpoints at the cali border? I don't know... drug sniffing dogs at the fruit & vegetable inspection stations?)
• No Import/Export from other countries.
• Local jurisdictional legislation within the borders of states that have legalized? (look at the Oakland situation, question... does all the pot grown at these 4 businesses have to be sold within the city limits of Oakland or are they able to "export" it to other municipalities?)

I think during this time period prices will drop a little but not a lot. But I now realize I'm getting a little ahead of myself. What's our journey to California legalization going to look like. We've got multiple steps that can happen... (if 19 had passed we would have a crazy pattern of local laws regulating businesses... city/county/state...) This is going to limit how big a business can get and how cheap they can produce (economy of scale). Right now, I can't imagine a business being able to get big enough to even be state-wide.

(*note... I voted yes for 19 even though I thought it was flawed)

Sorry if this post is schizophrenic... it's tough trying to explain everything I'm thinking.

Ok... Eventually the Federal Government will legalize, but not every state will. Is Interstate Commerce going to be legal right away? (nope, I doubt it... more interstate smuggling will also keep demand artificially high in legal states right?) At this point I would expect statewide businesses being the largest allowed. If I was one of those Oakland outfits I would have already invested in farmland somewhere for massive outdoor & greenhouse grows (and I mean acres and acres worth, I'm thinking of future interstate commerce, might not even buy in the same state). They would probably hire a bunch of documented aliens with guest worker visas to do the grunt work (harvest & trim), probably overseen by someone who lost their mom&pop small business-sized grow years before for some lower middle class paycheck (there's gonna be a lot of us fighting for those jobs, the smart ones may go to college and get botany degree's and survive somewhere higher on the food chain... probably solid middle-class).

Next step??? somewhere in all this happening, more and more other countries are going to be legalizing and going through their own process.

Then trade restrictions are going to ease, the big boys are going to offshore at this point I bet, you can get cheaper labor elsewhere in the world, cheaper land too, not to mention all the sweet-spots for growing in the world that aren't in California or aren't in the states at all.

What's the price per pound of finely grown imported pipe tobacco? A lot if it's from Cuba I bet. (but we're talking legal)

How much is a pound of the best coffee in the world (arguably, Jamaican Blue Mountain... it's the most expensive anyways)

http://www.google.com/search?q=jama...en&tab=wf&biw=1280&bih=560&fp=9111c1d610a8252

Looks like about $30-$80 a lb.

It's also important to note that there's a type of coffee that's better than any arabica anywhere, it just takes 10 times longer for the plant to mature and produce (we're talking years) so no commercial coffee companies grow it... I think I read that there was one plantation that made a go at it for awhile but they failed in the end (a fire wiped them out if I'm remembering right)

But anyways... I could see $50 pounds... at some point, no problem

Sorry for the long rambling post... (just keeping it "real")

 

[HippyJohnny]

Don't worry we have cool things to circumvent the "Free Market".
Collusion works for most all industries, I am sure pot would be no different given half a chance.

"Free markets... we don't need no stinking free anything"

 

[Greensub]

The way things are right now... we'd be buying Chinese pot if it was legal. Fukin' free trade!

 

[Mr.Jones]

I kind of have to find it humorous when we talk about a business like this being big...

What happens when we deregulate and apply free trade?

Does anyone doubt that if we legalize 90% of the world will follow? (I'm not against legalization by the way)

I'd buy imported authentic cheap thai sticks before the bland indoor crap (great taste and bag appeal I have to admit) I've been getting at dispensaries.

bad thing is that even the thais dont have authentic weed anymore - most of the bud over there are netherland hybrids grown in laos

just in my opinion:
i wouldnt give a shit if the ppl who say: "oh lets get stoned." buy from them big coops. I hate those people so much, you could tell them about the strain you are selling and if its grown organic/hydro and they would still ask you: "does it fuck me up?" - i mean my weed is just too good for that. if you have a wallmart of weed let the people go in there and buy cheap commercial weed. i couldnt car less! im soo sick of these people!
there will always be a connossieur market and i think those people are the only ones that deserve to get our very best! In my opinion its the fact if it does fuck you up makes good grass - its more reading between the lines and find those slight differences. its not about the sweet taste but more about the unique taste.

take the wine industry and take a close look - you could buy wine for cheap but there are still people paying very much money for a single bottle and buy from small produceres. i enjoy good wine the most - if i wanna get drunk im buying vodka anyways ...
this should be the goal for the cannabis industry but this is going to take some time: if legalized many people will buy this standart indoor weed - it might eben be tasting ok and be quite strong but you'll never get an Ohaze for cheap ...

 

[Greensub]

That's true... I was bringing up marketing sativa's in another thread, If there's a market for $1400 bottles of Louis XIII (and small single batch 30-40 year old scotch), there should be a market for more expensive strains that take a long time to finish like Haze and other long flowering strains, (I would pay more... a lot of kids would look at it and wonder what's wrong with it). Sadly I don't see a lot of that right now anywhere (in the cali club scene at least).

I'm friendly with the local collective where I'm at and I'm gonna try dropping off some on consignment with some literature at high (fair) price and tell them I don't care how quick it sells, and do some internet marketing too. (I do SEO and marketing sometimes).

But I still can't see the status-quo being preserved for too long when things start getting de-regulated. A small connoisseur grower then would probably be comparable to a the biggest ops right now.

 

[Barn Owl]

It is killing me too...but I still support Legalization--

Here's to cheap, legal, potent cannabis. No more war on drugs and affordable potent medicine for those who need it and affordable potent cannabis for those who just want it. Fuck drug laws. Fuck dealers who support drug laws!

 

[BIG JT]

Fuck haters who can't grow their own shit! time to trim!

 

[Barn Owl]

I can grow it and support legalization. Never needed the drug dealing jackass who rip you off.

 

[Noobian]

And they WILL rip you off if they can get away with it

 

[Aeroguerilla]

Fuck haters who can't grow their own shit! time to trim!

keep it illegal... higher profits... power to the people... fuck the government

anyone who sees differently suck my dick your probably a politician or some punk whos sick of paying 50 bucks an 1/8... quit trying to change something that works in our advantage... you want change? go buy yourself 4kw and help take away from the demand of Mexican junk weed thats running our cities.

 

[Anti]

I rarely find an 1/8 for $50. Going rate for the last 5 years has been $60 for the good stuff.

If not wanting to pay someone for it makes one a punk, punk me the fuck up.

 

[Noobian]

Yeah I'm with you Anti that other guy above you is a complete tool. So because someone doesn't want to pay an exorbitant price for some flowers that makes them a punk, nice logic there.

 

[Barn Owl]

Local dealers were never that honest or reliable. You could always be sure that whatever you bought was not the strain they called it. Lower quality.

With all of it's issues, the medical cannabis scene has really put a dent in their shitty dealing practices. It has raised the bar on quality and brought the dealers prices down. Sure, they hate legal cannabis.

 

[Aeroguerilla]

I rarely find an 1/8 for $50. Going rate for the last 5 years has been $60 for the good stuff.

If not wanting to pay someone for it makes one a punk, punk me the fuck up.

not wanting to pay the high price bro... read my post