The Future of Legal Cannabis vs. The New Federal Government

[Hash Zeppelin]

This thread is to discus how we think cannabis legalization will move forward in the future with prop 64 passing, and Donald Trump winning the presidency with the republicans controlling the house and senate. It is not to talk about any other politics. Only cannabis policy and law. Let's keep it civil please.

To begin with I think the legalization of cannabis in 4 more states sends a clear message that cannabis never went away, and the legal industry on the entire west coast and Nevada, is here to stay, despite the opinion of the federal government. Most of us growers have grown in much harsher conditions, and full prohibition. Trump and his lackies will not intimidate us.

Personally I am very happy that prop 64 has passed now that Trump has made his choice for attorney general. Sessions is harshly anti cannabis, and I think prop 64 maybe another crucial layer of state protection. The question is how much? This is very important considering Sessions has openly said things like this.

remark about Ku Klux Klan members, Sessions said, “I used to think they’re okay,” until learning that some were “pot smokers,” according to the sworn statements by the civil rights attorneys, who had worked with Sessions.”

The California state legisture seems to want to promote the new legal cannabis industry, but there is a group of cops out there that is best described in this New York times article, that I suggest you all read. Its very well written.

The quote below is from the article describing the disconnect between police departments and current legislation.

“If there is an issue with a manufacturing process being unsafe, we don’t normally break down doors and take the payroll,” she said. “It’s almost as if law enforcement, at multiple levels, are like the Japanese soldiers on an island still fighting a war that is over.”

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/11/2...n-its-not.html?referer=http://m.facebook.com/

I'm curious to see how much the state of California will be willing to cooperate with the federal government in the future. Especially after the the threat of cutting our federal funding because we have declared our selves a sanctuary state. It is more than likely an empty threat, but it may encourage california legislators to take a hard stance protecting the tax revenue, and jobs of an industry estimated to be worth 25 billion dollars as of now, and 50 billion dollars by 2026. After all they have the 6th largest economy in the world, and the well being 40 million people to protect. If they have no federal funding, then they have zero reason to comply with federal requests for anything. Which could be very good for us.

The California government might also enjoy protecting States rights just to make a point to the GOP, that is constantly speaking about respecting States rights for their agendas.

I also think that the level of threat from large industry taking over the business, drastically drops now for at least 4 years. Multinational corporations will still not want to invest all that money in an industry where they can't use banks, and may have everything confinscated by the federal government, and then face felony charges; aka, the worries that industry people have been dealing with for decades. Large corporations know that the biggest players in the game are also the biggest targets because of the rico act. The Feds will confiscate money, and property, and they only raid when the rico prize adds up to more value than the cost of the raid and the prosecution. With out the assistance of the state of California this cost goes up.

I'm very interested on hearing all of your opinions on the subject matter, and the reasons behind your opinions.

 

[Jellyfish]

subbed

 

[EsterEssence]

I am taking the positive approach that nothing will change and the states will decide how to handle implantation of the laws just voted in. However Co. waited to implement the law until assistant ag Cole wrote a memo, that as long as the states followed a few rules the feds would leave the states alone. So we really have to wait till the new administration makes the decision as to what to do about LEGAL CANNABIS, didn't think I would ever be able to say that...

 

[Hash Zeppelin]

I am taking the positive approach that nothing will change and the states will decide how to handle implantation of the laws just voted in. However Co. waited to implement the law until assistant ag Cole wrote a memo, that as long as the states followed a few rules the feds would leave the states alone. So we really have to wait till the new administration makes the decision as to what to do about LEGAL CANNABIS, didn't think I would ever be able to say that...

Basically we are partially safe for now because of a budget bill. Cannabis raids on state legal institutions have been defended. When the budget gets redone things could go south for us. However after the last 5 years the legal industry has drastically increased in size, enforment will be much harder, just do to the fact of how long the list is now. Will their be enough federal LEO funding to build the immigration round up force he possibly wants (not clear yet), and refund the DEA enfornment of cannabis.

Also how will he argue for States rights for abortion, but not for other things like cannabis?

Another question. Will Trump see cannabis as profitable item to boost earnings at his casinos in Nevada? If he wants to compete with the other casinos, he might have to fold, and also sell cannabis.

Things are already getting interesting.....

Stay positive my friends, and over grow the planet. Never stop.

 

[packerfan79]

I don't think the feds will be the problem. I think the California legislature is going to destroy the industry with sky high taxes and regulations. Welcome to mass produced mediocre quality product, at sky-high prices. I also think we will see a lot of people going to prison to keep the black market down. I liken it to moonshine. People go to prison for making something that you can buy in the grocery store. I am thinking Alaska may be the best bet. Alaska has a constitutional amendment regarding the right to privacy allows 24 plants. Funny thing is its been on the books since the 70s .

 

[oldchuck]

I continue to think that we have absolutely no idea what Trump will actually do as president. Nothing he says adds up. He is the wild card of all wild cards. I suspect that he will allow the right wing republicans he appoints to run the government while he continues to shoot off his mouth and pose for photo ops. So Sessions is a grave danger.

 

[Big Sur]

Regarding the OP here: You say that you only want to discuss weed politics, but then you go off topic and bring up the fact that California is a sanctuary state? Talk about a political black hole. Personally I hope that Trump smashes the sanctuaries by cutting federal funds. I will also be glad to help build the wall. See, you opened your own Pandora's Box in your own thread by going off-topic here.

 

[Chunkypigs]

the feds couldn't shut it down in tiny states like CO and WA.

they didn't even try. stop worrying and go grow some weed.

 

[Hash Zeppelin]

Regarding the OP here: You say that you only want to discuss weed politics, but then you go off topic and bring up the fact that California is a sanctuary state? Talk about a political black hole. Personally I hope that Trump smashes the sanctuaries by cutting federal funds. I will also be glad to help build the wall. See, you opened your own Pandora's Box in your own thread by going off-topic here.

Stop trolling. Trolling will be reported.

Just incase you're not just trolling, and you really do need some help comprehending what I'm talking about, here....

I am Not going off topic at all. I'm not discussing sactuary States. I'm only mentioning that as it is a factor in considering motives for california to protect tax revenue from legal cannabis out of necessity to fund its government, infrastructure, and social programs. That's all.

I mention Japanese soldiers after ww2 also, but it doesn't mean I'm talking about post ww2 Japan. You have to follow context. You can't just look at two works and decide that is what the entire point of my entire article is.

 

[Hash Zeppelin]

the feds couldn't shut it down in tiny states like CO and WA.

they didn't even try. stop worrying and go grow some weed.

I imagine you're correct in this statement, but discussion is still a good thing. Keeps people thinking, and planing. Having well thought out plans prevents future worries.

 

[Hash Zeppelin]

I continue to think that we have absolutely no idea what Trump will actually do as president. Nothing he says adds up. He is the wild card of all wild cards. I suspect that he will allow the right wing republicans he appoints to run the government while he continues to shoot off his mouth and pose for photo ops. So Sessions is a grave danger.

We shall see. He may not even get approved by congress. The discussion in this thread will evolve over time, and we will gain wisdom form more hindsight.

 

[Big Sur]

As for the Fed (new or old) and states rights regarding Marijuana, I do not see where 4 more rec states will push the Fed to legalize it. I believe that is fantasy for the time being. All the states with the highest MJ use except RI and VT have now legalized rec weed. Also the idea that California will push things over the top? I do not see that happening. If anything, I see the biggest push-through from this election being from New England. It opens a new legal rec weed region. Now CT and RI are considering state legislation to pass legal weed to beat MA to the punch. VT seems to be like OR was before rec legalization, and the net impact there of legal rec weed would be little. But it would be one more rec weed state.

At this point I believe that MEDICAL MJ has a chance at becoming legal on a federal level, which Trump has repeatedly said he approves of. I do not see it happening for rec weed any time soon though. You need at least a big state in the South and Midwest to punch a hole in the federal blockade. Texas and Ohio could do that. I believe that we will also need 2/3 of the states to have some form of legal weed before the Fed will consider it. While ending federal prohibition on weed does not need a 2/3 state ratification, in the end I think that is what will be needed to push things over the top. I also think that Fed decriminalization for MJ will happen, but I doubt that fed full rec legality will happen. Decriminalization will be important for banking laws to change in the weed business, which is required for anything to really take off. Its still an all cash business here.

There is also the muni issue. Here in Oregon commercial rec weed grows and sales are not allowed in most of the eastern counties and two western counties, which covers about 3/4 the state. Like in most other states, only possession is allowed in the entire state (but still not on Federal land). In Oregon you can also personally grow rec weed pretty much anywhere, but that is not allowed in Washington as all. California is allowing for far more muni control than in Oregon. Also California is letting the lid fly off on commercial grows after 5 years. Others think this is great, but it will be a sucker punch for small growers to get going, and then they will get clobbered by big growers later on. I foresee large scale farming of weed in the central and coastal valleys in California, and it would not take much to force small growers out of business. In Colorado and Washington states, the rec grow supply is greatly outpacing demand, and prices are collapsing. I see that happening in California as well. In Oregon rec grow licensing has been slow, the outdoor grow was hit hard by early rains in the fall, and testing bottlenecks are pushing the price up. So the commodity price of MJ will be variable in different states, for different reasons.

My 2 cents worth anyway. Overall? I am not that happy with the results of legal rec weed in Oregon. It is too limited, over-regulated and munis have too much control. The OMMP medical weed structure was good here, and at least they are keeping it here. In California they are doing away with it. In Washington they are enhancing WMMP and they have lowered the tax on rec weed. In Oregon and Washington at least, if the Feds come down hard on rec weed, we can fall back on the retained OMMP and WMMP systems. In California they will not be able to do that.

 

[Hash Zeppelin]

As for the Fed (new or old) and states rights regarding Marijuana, I do not see where 4 more rec states will push the Fed to legalize it. I believe that is fantasy for the time being. All the states with the highest MJ use except RI and VT have now legalized rec weed. Also the idea that California will push things over the top? I do not see that happening. If anything, I see the biggest push-through from this election being from New England. It opens a new legal rec weed region. Now CT and RI are considering state legislation to pass legal weed to beat MA to the punch. VT seems to be like OR was before rec legalization, and the net impact there of legal rec weed would be little. But it would be one more rec weed state.

At this point I believe that MEDICAL MJ has a chance at becoming legal on a federal level, which Trump has repeatedly said he approves of. I do not see it happening for rec weed any time soon though. You need at least a big state in the South and Midwest to punch a hole in the federal blockade. Texas and Ohio could do that. I believe that we will also need 2/3 of the states to have some form of legal weed before the Fed will consider it. While ending federal prohibition on weed does not need a 2/3 state ratification, in the end I think that is what will be needed to push things over the top. I also think that Fed decriminalization for MJ will happen, but I doubt that fed full rec legality will happen. Decriminalization will be important for banking laws to change in the weed business, which is required for anything to really take off. Its still an all cash business here.

There is also the muni issue. Here in Oregon commercial rec weed grows and sales are not allowed in most of the eastern counties and two western counties, which covers about 3/4 the state. Like in most other states, only possession is allowed in the entire state (but still not on Federal land). In Oregon you can also personally grow rec weed pretty much anywhere, but that is not allowed in Washington as all. California is allowing for far more muni control than in Oregon. Also California is letting the lid fly off on commercial grows after 5 years. Others think this is great, but it will be a sucker punch for small growers to get going, and then they will get clobbered by big growers later on. I foresee large scale farming of weed in the central and coastal valleys in California, and it would not take much to force small growers out of business. In Colorado and Washington states, the rec grow supply is greatly outpacing demand, and prices are collapsing. I see that happening in California as well. In Oregon rec grow licensing has been slow, the outdoor grow was hit hard by early rains in the fall, and testing bottlenecks are pushing the price up. So the commodity price of MJ will be variable in different states, for different reasons.

My 2 cents worth anyway. Overall? I am not that happy with the results of legal rec weed in Oregon. It is too limited, over-regulated and munis have too much control. The OMMP medical weed structure was good here, and at least they are keeping it here. In California they are doing away with it. In Washington they are enhancing WMMP and they have lowered the tax on rec weed. In Oregon and Washington at least, if the Feds come down hard on rec weed, we can fall back on the retained OMMP and WMMP systems. In California they will not be able to do that.

Well said. We got the big state in the south for medical. That is Florida. They probably won't wait to long to go for rec weed. There are tons of growers in Florida too.

I also think think we maybe far from tipping recreational legalization over the edge. All legal states only add up to 93 representatives out of 435. Roughly 1/5.

I think medical might have a much better chance like you said. Considering that 28 states are now medical. Over half. Also it's in big states, so it adds up to over half the representatives in congress too. More than half the senators as well, including some in red states, that were traditionally anti pot, have now changed positions.

 

[bombadil.360]

Good post Big Sur.

Also a good observation you make about how the fed can take off cannabis off its current schedule for medicinal purposes, while at the same time not allowing it for recreational.

Imo they will be forced to allow for medicinal purposes as the scientific evidence is too big to refute at this point.

The recreational issue may need to be negotiated through social arguments rather than scientific ones and that may take longer.

 

[packerfan79]

The problem with the Fed's changing the schedule for just medical to schedule 2 is it will only be allowed to be dispensed in pharmacy no buds only pill or drops nothing smoke able. I have said for a long time, weed will go the way of moonshine. We will be criminals if we're not corporate. Nor cal will be the same as the south is for moonshine. I don't think norcal will throw in the towel, just be a repeat of the 70s and 80s. CAMP will be flying hard, and the technology is way better than it was then. They can sit at a desk and use a satellite to find the illegal grows. Let's just hope that Trump is to busy taking care of our vetrans, and fixing our retarded immigration system. Our failing economy, and our screwed up medical system to put Marijuana on his radar. Even if they fully legalize it our corrupt ass federal government will find a way to screw it up.

 

[igrowone]

if nothing else, Trump is going have to frame an answer to the legalization landslide
and that's what it is, it was big, not perfect but what is?
but a response will have to happen, hoping it is 'screw it, let the states deal with it'

 

[oldchuck]

Stay underground until the storm blows over.

 

[stoney917]

I wish we go back fulll prohibition.... Hey all these multi millionaire Corp muthafukas an pussy new growers who were scared prior the fuck out .... 5000@lb back all day.... Fuck legalization... Full criminalization.... N don't get caught... Times were good then...

They took our jobs n all this pro pot is not gonna be good at all... Look who it's actually helping
.. Not me or you...

 

[eyes]

People will continue to grow regardless of the laws that are on the books. The fine line is should people come out and register to be legal or shall we say taxable or should they stay underground. On one hand people are contemplating weather to expose themselves to make a legal buck and be taxed, On the other, they question weather its worth it to give up there privacy especially if this is how they earn their living. Balancing the two is the conundrum that many are facing. Personally, for me if I was growing for cash, id be hesitant at trusting the man as you have to ask yourself "has the man ever looked out for you".

We can argue the point that people in colorado who are legal state wide are making the dollars and doing well. This may be very well true, but for the masses who would like a slice of the pie, the govt or such are making it much harder for the little guy to succeed in the biz- between law and regulations, start up capital, no felonies. Rules upon rules. Tough choice nonetheless. Seems everyone wants a pan and a pickaxe.

 

[Jellyfish]

I wish we go back fulll prohibition.... Hey all these multi millionaire Corp muthafukas an pussy new growers who were scared prior the fuck out .... 5000@lb back all day.... Fuck legalization... Full criminalization.... N don't get caught... Times were good then...

They took our jobs n all this pro pot is not gonna be good at all... Look who it's actually helping
.. Not me or you...

I'm glad somebody had the balls to say this.