Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[Zen Master]

I can't see them doing any more easing or twisting or whatever the hell its being called now in ~3 weeks unless the markets totally shit the bed this month.

with no definitive QE what are your thoughts on phys PM's short term? buy now or wait for a lil correction or another margin hike (perhaps) to get a little dip? Gold is at 1876 right now, gettin close to that 1900 top on the 22nd

 

[yesum]

Would have liked a preview of today so I could have shorted, everyone is hindsight tho.

With the economy this way a lot of folks would like to jump in the lake with you Gramps, and never come up.

 

[Madrus Rose]

Would have liked a preview of today so I could have shorted, everyone is hindsight tho.

With the economy this way a lot of folks would like to jump in the lake with you Gramps, and never come up.

I'd post more often on IC but usually have to wait over a minute to get this sites pages to load so even just checking PM's or casual posting is a migrane headache almost everytime ... and this has been a fast market .
(amazingly fast today took only 20secs to post this , everyone must be gone to the lake !)

There's been wonderful chart studies too but IC isn't the venue for it (no drop n drag etc which is a total PITA ) ..AAPL was sure being a canary hitting R early this week at $390 ....there's other better sites that do have better real time trading and all the add ons with pretty good traders .

 

[Madrus Rose]

really bad report out today ....."Employment Situation Deteriorated Sharply in August, Lowest Payroll Change Since Sep. 2010 "

The employment situation deteriorated sharply in August as nonfarm payrolls were unchanged after increasing a downwardly revised 85,000 (from 117,000) in July. The Briefing.com consensus expected payrolls to increase by 70,000. Excluding government payrolls, which declined by 17,000 in August after shedding 71,000 jobs in July, nonfarm private payrolls increased by only 17,000. That is the lowest increase in private payrolls since the sector eliminated 21,000 jobs in February 2010. The consensus expected private payrolls to add 110,000 jobs in August. The fact that nonfarm payrolls came in under consensus expectations for both total nonfarm and private payrolls should not have been a surprise. As we mentioned in the preview, many economists failed to take into account the Verizon Communications strike in their forecast. Those strikers alone caused a decline of approximately 45,000 in nonfarm payrolls in August.

Even after including the striking workers, however, the numbers were far worse than expected. Given that the initial claims level implied a private payroll gain of only 100,000 in August, 55,000 would have been a conservative estimate of private payroll growth. After subtracting expected government layoffs, total nonfarm payrolls were forecasted by us to increase by roughly 16,000. It seems that the private sector stopped laying off workers in August, which was in-line with the claims data, but never instituted a new round of hiring. That left very minimal payroll gains.

The underlying details, unfortunately, do not bode well for consumption growth in August. Weekly hours declined from 34.3 in July to 34.2 in June and hourly earnings fell 0.1% in August after increasing 0.4% in July. Combined with the limited payroll increase, wages fell 0.4%. Unless the savings rate also declined, which is unlikely given the recent deterioration in confidence, consumption probably fell by more than 0.4% in August

 

[robbiedublu]

never mind

 

[SpasticGramps]

Wow. This has nothing to do with the market, but I just had one of the best days in a long time. I traded some of my Bernanke Bucks in on the new ski. F"ing Amazing. I smoked a bowl of shoreline and went and ripped it up. 28 off 34mph free ski. That's a rush.

First one I've had since HS 16 years ago. This is old my comp. ski. It feels like it's made out of cement compared to the new one.

The new technology in these things is f'ing mind boggling. Carbon material and a stepped bottom (reduces friction coefficient). It's a damn rocket ship.

Looks like the government is cannibalizing the banks with the FHFA suing 17 major banks. Prop them up to destroy them. This is going to be interesting.

Geaux Tigers!!

 

[SpasticGramps]

@ Zenmaster

Probably a margin hike coming soon. So maybe a dip? When the world looks like shit metals are going to be in. Anyone will tell you buy and hold is dead in today's equity markets, but not so in fizzy metals.

Precious Metals Surge As QE3 Now Merely A Formality

We dont have real time pricing on spam, but luckily we do on gold and silver. And to all those who BTFD in the past 2 weeks as we suggested, congratulations. Next up: another futile CME margin hike which will do nothing but confirm that a standalone gold standard is imminent.

Gold

Silver

The ECB is painted in a corner and many are calling for them to monetize. Greek contracted 5%. The world economy is garbage. Once faith is finally lost in these constant "market interventions" then the party will wind down for a bit.

Metals are something to look at for diversification. Stay Frosty.

 

[Madrus Rose]

check out chart on the FXE /Euro...just made another pullback from the top of channel @ $1.45 ...this range bound trade you could set your watch to all summer .

Wasn't ust gold that popped today but the TLT was flight to safety . Silver did pop past $43 which was resistance before, still was noticing Au was sort of hitting R at $1880 ....so yes there could be a pullback in the PM's .

Think even the longs in GLD SLV were taken by surprise by those pops today , lol , there was the 1rst pop in the am and lot took profits early at the 1rst peak but came right back in . GDX was shooting for a break out too ...the miners could not help but follow on here .

First string traders get back after labor day usually , summer follies come to an end . Too early for an AAPL/IBM earnings run some feel there could be a tag of 1100 or lower before this is over , but one day at a time .

 

[joeuser]

I took my AGQ profits just before the close...come on, up $18 for the day? I HAD to cash out! I'll get back in after the next waterfall...they're like clockwork too!

 

[SpasticGramps]

The Sovereign Debt contagion is going to morph into another financial crisis a la 2008 on steroids, fairly soon IMO. The house of cards looks shaky.

Game Over? Senior IMF Official - "I Expect A Hard Greek Default This Year"

While the US was panicking over a double zero jobs report, things in Europe just fell off a cliff. As both the WSJ and Reuters report, it seems that the second Greek bailout, following repeated and consistent disappointments by Greece which has resolutely refused to comply with the terms of its fiscal austerity program, has just collapsed.And with the US closed on Monday: long a counterbalance to European risk pessimism, this week (especially with the news fro the latest FHFA onslaught against global banks) may just be the one that "it" all comes to a head. But back to Europe, and more specifically Greece, which it now appears is doomed. "I expect a hard default definitely before March, maybe this year, and it could come with this program review," said a senior IMF economist who is keeping close tabs on the situation. "The chances for a second program are slim." It is not only Greece - Italy also thought it would sneak by with getting quid pro no and continue leeching off of Europe, or specifically Germany, indefinitely, at least until the ECB said that absent Berlusconi taking austerity seriously that implicit ECB support for Italian bonds would be yanked, sending the second most indebted country in the world into a toxic debt tailspin. And so it comes that after 2 years of waffling, Europe finally realizes that the piper always eventually gets paid. Alas, it is now far too late.

Geaux Tigers!

 

[SpasticGramps]

Wow. Europe got crushed today. Total bloodbath.

FTSE 1005,103-189 -3.58%

CAC 403,000-149 -4.73%

DAX5,246-292 -5.28%

FTSE MIB14,334-727 -4.83%

IBEX 35 IDX8,067-397 -4.69%

Almost everyday western markets are moving +/- 2-4%. Some times 5%. Insane volatility. This is being sold as the "new normal" by establishment talking heads. lol. This is what the wheels look like when they start coming off the bus IMO. The "new normal" means proles are SOL.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Scanning through the headlines on Europe real quick. Big f'ing mess that's going to be. The Lehman moment for this "correction" is going to be a European bank blowing up IMO. Systemic risk takes care of the rest.

Rats jumping off the ship is usually a good indication things are getting serious.

One more jumped off today. A big one at that.

BIG PIS: The CEO Of Europe's Most Troubled Bank, Dexia, Quits As Contagion Tsunami Sweeps Over Belgium

Just when we thought the world was running out of headlines, here come something that will send futures scurrying for even more safety. According to Belgian Nieuwsblad, the CEO of Belgium's biggest bank has just resigned. As a reminder, Dexia is the one European bank that in the 2008-2009 period borrowed more money from the Fed than anyone else, and which we have discussed on several occasions in the past few months as being rumored to be on the receiving end of a variety of liquidity "complications" and countreparty concerns. Typically rumors of that nature, coupled with the sudden departure of the CEO, end up being proven as fact shortly to quite shortly. In other news, we are happy to announce the expansion of the PIIGS to BIG PIS following the arrival of the latest country to join the sovereign and bank funding crisis.

Google Translated
Stefaan Decraene, the chief executive of Dexia Bank Belgium, leave the company. That tells the time and is confirmed by Dexia. He is succeeded by Jos Clijsters.

Dexia's departure Decraene tonight confirmed in a press release. The bank also announced that it Jos Clijsters by the board of directors was appointed new CEO of Dexia Bank Belgium. "The experience of Jos Clijsters in the financial sector and his knowledge of Dexia guarantee the continuity and development of the bank to serve its customers," it sounds.

The new vice chairman of the executive Marc Lauwers, the board member responsible for the Belgian retail bank.

According to Time, there are "strong indications" that Decraene (46) will switch to the French financial giant BNP Paribas, the parent of Dexia's rival Fortis. Confirmation has not yet.

Not the first

The departure comes at a time when Dexia's very difficult, and the financial markets to deal with a growing crisis of confidence in investors and creditors. The departure of Decraene may be the result of tensions between the Belgian and French arm within the group. It's no secret that it was difficult to find Decraene the Frenchman Pierre Mariani, Dexia's CEO of the entire group.
Earlier this year already got several other executives of Dexia, including Xavier de Walque, financial director of Dexia Bank Belgium, and Wim Vermeir, an asset to the ancien Dexia Asset Management.

 

[The iD]

[aug28]i layed on the 2nd half of my calls and fired off the rest of my short term puts @ 1750$/. still short papergold over the long term (oct-dec) so im covered if this correction lasts further. ive got possible downside @ 1699$/oz to friday. we just touched 1750 so watch support from this level. decent support here from the aug10/12 test imo. looks to me like the movers are trying to set up a nice buying opportunity coming into JH. JH is PM bullish imo either way. PM deadline soon, trend should solidify late this week after profit taking. real big movement when they do something real big.

took a minimal amount of the 1750 call profits and took delivery of a couple contracts as well here @ 1900+. 12wks+ is a bit to wait, might turn some paper into AU/AG locally since i am slightly overweight cash atm. letting these profits run to new highs, 1925+, then prolly unload half or an offsetting %. more margin hikes are imminent.

~equities: i went all in to the short side thru last weeks pop, cashed in the last of the long positions @ Mar'11 low test, tossed on a minimum hedge to DJI12k/1270S&P. sucked sitting and watching >50% portfolio value disintegrate. but nearly back even by fri & well positioned for this weeks move. the ES/RISK comp trade has been infallible so far, continues to be. Gramps posted a chart i believe that visualized it well; the divergence between bonds & ES. Short the Pop. aug'11 lows likely, -10% more possible.

EMU will lead us lower until it gets another temporary bandaid (Bondaid?), or @ Sep21-22 OT announcement for 600Bil$. then when that begins to fade in 2-3mo we get the real QE; asset purchases, not some rinky-dink curve steepening, for a 1.4T$ lump- (dollar-debasing) sum. then people BTD on new FB IPO while they worry about what face to choose to spoon feed them their prompted tripe and legumes while the UK plays The Clash, Arab Spring proceeds to Fall, and China realizes their "soft landing" is covered in broken glass, and will be anything but.

im looking to POTus to announce some "high speed" rail idea to complete the BAC/Bobu Fett deal (in space, no one can hear you take a bath.), along w/ vet retraining, payroll taxcut ext, infrastructure bs, which pretty much equates to a larger deficit w/ no real world gains. but in the current world, where replacing a slave that died w/ another slave is considered hiring & expansionary, all these pitiful gestures will likely be lauded as successful as we once again breach the debt ceiling (has it been a month already?) and as thieves and criminals adorn their parachutes & stuff their pockets.

the event horizon has long been breached. im moving what im not selling to a new casa, a little more secluded, not really what i want, adequate, im calling it an investment. stash the cats and the gear and head out over the pond a few times starting after Bernank eats the cookie in a couple weeks. most will be back to (looking for) work/school from their holidays. if we are lucky, it will be a slow crumble and we get to deal w/ this bullshit for another 10yrs. if its sudden? then, well...

stay frosty,

-iD

on deck: Mandala PoNR. dank.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Bernanke KO'd the Swiss Franc today. The SNB has pledged to set a floor on the Franc of 1.2 to Euro and buy as many Euros to defend it. The last bastion of safe fiat currency is no more.

UBS released it's report outlining what would happen if the Euro collapsed. It took Hank Paulson's famous mutually assured destruction speech to another level citing government collapse, authoritarian rule, and civil war should the Euro monetary union collapse. Obviously, it will eventually collapse. It is in the process of collapsing now. I don't think it will be quite that bad though. They just have to scare the shit out of everyone to ensure compliance in propping the status quo for one day at a time now.

The rumor that European banks were grossly under capitalized has now become market truth. The lemmings have finally acknowledged what many have been talking about for a while.

I agree with iD's assessment. Operation Twist is about to start which will amount to a bunch of nothing. When things get real shitty we'll see end game style monetization (QE3). Basically one big f'ing mess. Averages down ~2% so far today.

 

[SpasticGramps]

The European banks are now well capitalized everyone! There is no liquidity crisis. We're saved! Nothing to see here move along. Don't mind the Enron accounting and unicorns.

IMF Agrees To Shove Head Deep In Sand, Will Lower Eurobank Capital Needs

When all else fails, change the rules, and shove your head even deeper in the sand:

- IMF has agreed to substantially lower initially estimate for European bank sector capital needs according to Eurozone sources
- Private sector expected to meet bank recapitalisation needs, according to Eurozone sources
- Eurozone has no plans for public support for banks over and above money in bailouts for Greece, Ireland and Portugal according to Eurozone sources

- "We have discussed this with the IMF in detail and the IMF has agreed that this initial figure will be revised downwards and the revision will be quite substantial," a euro zone official participating in the talks said.

Of course, this won't change anything about the fact that Eurobanks are insolvent, that the ECB is undercapitalized, that the Greek bailout is falling apart. But what matters is that the IMF, or the world's former bailout, and now completely irrelevant, organization courtesy of China, will allow banks to proceed far further undercapitalized than prudent, until it has to bail out not one, but all, and at the same time. As a reminder, the IMF expected a need of $200 billion, which the eurocrats say is goign to be far lower... Even as Goldman's report, first released on Zero Hedge, said that the full amount will be 5 times bigger, or $1 trillion. As much as Goldman is blasted left and right, they at least know how to use that HP12C. Which is far more than we can say about the idiots from Luxembourg.

More from Reuters:

Setting themselves up for an even bigger credit crunch.

 

[The iD]

man am i getting raped. so, i was beginning to take papergold profits the other night @ 1920+ like i planned while i toke a bit, next thing i know its down 4% in seconds and im searching for the cause and my lighter for another hit. fukin SNB. i was lucky i pared my CHF losses after the first 5 sigma event and lightened my long position after some choice words directed at my pc monitor and the central bankers that reside within and added it to the strangle pile. after experiencing this recent 10 sigma move live, im done w/ my CHF position and am looking for somewhere to park the rest of my fiat holdings. leaning towards physical something. theyre all suicidal, printer cartridge loaded, shotgun wielding lemmings. Bernank's plan of forcing folks into USD, then into equities looks like its working pretty well.

i layed on tons of calls at yesterdays lows to protect against an unexplainable uptrend partly due to the gold correction but im still bleeding profit. wasnt able to unload all of my short term long position in AU either and thats getting beaten up. naked to the downside apart from the long term puts. fuuuuk. whats humorous to me is Bernanke still cant print if we are only down 5% and BAC, SINA, RVBD, SSI, et al are making +6% days, just like last month. look for him to possibly express this point tomorrow. OT on sept22 is now 50%. he NEEDS a move lower in equities. all thats left after sacking gold and inflation. next opportunity to balk would be ~oct10. chase that QE carrot.

lets see if we can trade an entire 800 point range two or three times over in a week. perfectly healthy market. paper is safe, really. buy, buy, buy...

on closer inspection, the movement has been deemed a gran mal seizure. they bounce off the floor sometimes too. lol, i still cant explain any of this upward movement well beyond chasing doomed valuations & support/resistance, psyops, and massive amounts of central planning.

on HFT; there is always a person, and hence a motive, behind every algo. mutual and hedge fund algos buy and sell, depending on their specific desires and prevailing market sentiment. bank algos only sell silver, and buy everything else. treasury algos buy ES/futures and never sell anything. fed algos buy everything except commodities and never sell anything. the rare independent algo does what he pleases until hes shut down and put in jail. the HF/MF algos that dared flip their inputs from BTD to EJECT will be looking at the same fate soon enough. HFT was all gravy when BTD was the only strategy. sycophantic hypocrites.

same goes w/ ETFs. alls sunshine and unicorn queefs when the leveraged longs are raking it in. but no, now that LHB, SPXU, ERY, DPK, are making 5 & 10% moves to the upside there is a systemic problem. luckily any legislation against ETFs will likely be much too little too late. you made your bed fukers, time for a nap.

even serial bulls should be afraid of +3% moves every day. gonna be a wicked month. its still just begun. already annoyed by it. wonder if i can last till November. wonder if they can...

stay frosty,

-iD

 

[robbiedublu]

man am i getting raped. so, i was beginning to take papergold profits the other night @ 1920+ like i planned while i toke a bit, next thing i know its down 4% in seconds and im searching for the cause and my lighter for another hit. fukin SNB. i was lucky i pared my CHF losses after the first 5 sigma event and lightened my long position after some choice words directed at my pc monitor and the central bankers that reside within and added it to the strangle pile. after experiencing this recent 10 sigma move live, im done w/ my CHF position and am looking for somewhere to park the rest of my fiat holdings. leaning towards physical something. theyre all suicidal, printer cartridge loaded, shotgun wielding lemmings. Bernank's plan of forcing folks into USD, then into equities looks like its working pretty well.

i layed on tons of calls at yesterdays lows to protect against an unexplainable uptrend partly due to the gold correction but im still bleeding profit. wasnt able to unload all of my short term long position in AU either and thats getting beaten up. naked to the downside apart from the long term puts. fuuuuk. whats humorous to me is Bernanke still cant print if we are only down 5% and BAC, SINA, RVBD, SSI, et al are making +6% days, just like last month. look for him to possibly express this point tomorrow. OT on sept22 is now 50%. he NEEDS a move lower in equities. all thats left after sacking gold and inflation. next opportunity to balk would be ~oct10. chase that QE carrot.

lets see if we can trade an entire 800 point range two or three times over in a week. perfectly healthy market. paper is safe, really. buy, buy, buy...

on closer inspection, the movement has been deemed a gran mal seizure. they bounce off the floor sometimes too. lol, i still cant explain any of this upward movement well beyond chasing doomed valuations & support/resistance, psyops, and massive amounts of central planning.

on HFT; there is always a person, and hence a motive, behind every algo. mutual and hedge fund algos buy and sell, depending on their specific desires and prevailing market sentiment. bank algos only sell silver, and buy everything else. treasury algos buy ES/futures and never sell anything. fed algos buy everything except commodities and never sell anything. the rare independent algo does what he pleases until hes shut down and put in jail. the HF/MF algos that dared flip their inputs from BTD to EJECT will be looking at the same fate soon enough. HFT was all gravy when BTD was the only strategy. sycophantic hypocrites.

same goes w/ ETFs. alls sunshine and unicorn queefs when the leveraged longs are raking it in. but no, now that LHB, SPXU, ERY, DPK, are making 5 & 10% moves to the upside there is a systemic problem. luckily any legislation against ETFs will likely be much too little too late. you made your bed fukers, time for a nap.

even serial bulls should be afraid of +3% moves every day. gonna be a wicked month. its still just begun. already annoyed by it. wonder if i can last till November. wonder if they can...

stay frosty,

-iD

Just buy phys and forget about it.

 

[SpasticGramps]

FTSE 100 5,215 -126 -2.35%

CAC 40 2,975 -111 -3.60%

DAX 5,190 -219 -4.04%

FTSE MIB 14,020 -727 -4.93%

IBEX 35 IDX 7,910 -371 -4.48%

Europe continues it's meltdown. Stark from the ECB has just quit. Another rat jumps of the sinking ship. Nothing to see here move along.

Markets tanking again today. Can't wait for Operation Twist and then QE to infinity.

 

[iSMOKE.KUSH]

and the fear mongering resumes, but yeah this doesn't look good..

 

[SpasticGramps]

It's not. There are trader talk rumors of a Greek default over the weekend. It's pretty easy to understand. Sovereign debt defaults will cause a banking crisis much larger than the home mortgage crisis.

Once one big domino goes they will all go. Systemic risk is worse now than 2008, but there is no more backstop this time. Central banks have already blown their load over the last 3 years propping us up so we could have an even bigger collapse.

The Neo-Keyensian experiment is over. Onto the next round.