Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[SpasticGramps]

Debt ceiling debate is getting interesting. It's like watching little kids fighting in the sandbox. July 22 is D-Day for the bond markets. If there is no deal by then the shit will hit the fan. I personally think it's all theater and they will get it raised with nothing substantive being done to curb the debt aside for more Enron accounting tricks.

I don't even know why we have a ceiling? I mean who cares anymore? We're insolvent and extending and pretending like the system isn't going to cave in on itself. Ben's needs to just print $15 trillion and get it over with.

 

[krunchbubble]

Dodd-Frank Act enacted by US Congress, a new regulation prohibiting US residents from trading over the counter precious metals, including gold and silver, will go into effect on Friday, July 15, 2011......

what you think about this?

 

[SpasticGramps]

.
what you think about this?

From what I gather it's going to be illegal to trade paper where there's no possibility of actually taking delivery within 28 days. So all of those online forex dealers that allow gold trading on margin won't be able to take on US customers.

It's more of the all for me and none for you mentality IMO.

I think when the US dollar finally shits the bed DC is going to try and confiscate gold and silver from citizens. That may be the straw that breaks the camels back for Revolution 2.0.

 

[cnalfonso]

I don't really know much about stocks but this is definitely something I would like to get into... I just don't really know how. I guess it's time to do some research.

 

[Sam the Caveman]

I don't really know much about stocks but this is definitely something I would like to get into... I just don't really know how. I guess it's time to do some research.

The learning curve is very steep. Check out a site called investopedia. When I first got started I was on there all the time. And its easy to understand, but there is just so much info.

 

[Zen Master]

I don't even need to turn to the funnies in the morning, I just go to the business section for a good chuckle.

So what happens after QE3?

 

[SpasticGramps]

So what happens after QE3?

If the market hasn't imploded then QE4. Then QE5 to infinity until all confidence is lost and it implodes or explodes. Not sure which one.

We are way past the point of no return. We will print money until the music stops and the US Dollar is destroyed. On the bright side the Dow may be at 20K by then. Great nominal number, but you won't be able to buy anything in real terms.

 

[SpasticGramps]

US Default Risk Jumps To Highest Since February 2010 On Debt Ceiling Worries

So much for the market "completely ignoring" the total chaos and complete cacophony out of the tragicomic DC soap opera which is transitioning into less of a comedy and into more of a tragedy with each passing day. For everyone still wearing rose-colored glasses here's a refresher: stocks dropped, the S&P expressed in dollar terms, or adjusted for loss in dollar purchasing power is now negative for the year, bonds tumbled despite a "strong" auction driven almost entirely by Direct Bidders on the margin, and, the kicker, US CDS is now at 56 bps: US default risk is now the highest since February 2010.

US CDS

The S&P priced in dollars:

Here is one attempt at an explanation from the media, always so eager to assign plotlines to an otherwise irrational market:

Vigorous bidding for this week's entire $66 billion worth of government debt supply was expected to rekindle a bond market rally that had sent benchmark yields to their lowest more than seven months on Tuesday.

Instead the afternoon market sell-off left traders and analysts scratching heads, looking for answers.

"We were surprised by the resilience of the market going into this week's supply. It's quite ironic that we ended up lower after a strong auction," said Rich Bryant, head of Treasury trading at MF Global in New York.

Traders and analysts blamed the day's perplexing market action on a combination of factors.

Those included Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's remarks that the U.S. central bank is "not prepared at this point" to take action on more stimulus, competition from a $1.75 billion 30-year bond deal from J.P. Morgan, and a news report Washington has reached a budget deal but the size of cuts was smaller-than-expected.

Shortly after the 30-year auction that briefly helped pare losses, Dow Jones Newswires reported the White House and Congressional leaders could agree to about $1.5 trillion in deficit cuts and might be able to agree to an additional $200 billion in cuts.

"The market is telling you that the cuts are not deep enough," said Mark Pawlak, market strategist with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods in New York.

Here's another: the ponzi is starting to unravel, as evidenced by the unprecedented amount of micromanagement in every single aspect of the market - in the US (the Chairman's every word, out of context, can now move the market up and down by 20 S&P points), in Europe (the ECB - nuff said), in China (Japan 's BOJ JPY intervention last night, China's interbank markets locked up for a third week in a row needing PBOC intervention at each step), and virtually everywhere else where non-centrally planned money still flows.

I wonder how close they are going to cut the talks? Or maybe this is the wall and the market will realize that the will to change doesn't exist here and the bond vigilantes start picking at our carcass.

Traders and analysts blamed the day's perplexing market action on a combination of factors

Perplexing. Totally perplexing.

 

[SpasticGramps]

what you think about this?

It should drive down the price IMO. That's really the point of having it in the most corrupt piece of legislation since the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act. Consolidation is the name of the game. The market will eventually kick their ass though. Precious metals have been around for thousands of years. The Federal Reserve criminals have only been here 100 years come 2013. I wonder what that birthday party is going to be like?

Fiat comes and goes. I think I'm looking at decent return on my PM investment in 10 years for sure. The way things are going and the way the dollar is moving maybe less.

This isn't the biggest part of my portfolio though. Waterfront property is. I'm on buying as the price falls. I'm waiting to really load up in the future. The smart money buys when there is blood in the streets. We're not even close yet IMO.

Stoned and rambling.

 

[cnalfonso]

The learning curve is very steep. Check out a site called investopedia. When I first got started I was on there all the time. And its easy to understand, but there is just so much info.

Thanks a lot for the info!!! I'm going to start reading up and hopefully join this conversation soon!

 

[Sam the Caveman]

Hey alfonso, you might run into folks to try to teach you how to use their way of trading. Everyone trades their own individual way, so learn all the different ways you could trade and then pick one or a combination of some that you are comfortable with and that you like.

Investopedia has tons of educational stuff, I still learn stuff from that site and I started over a year ago.

 

[The iD]

who needs QE3 when you have the threat of which that works just as well? or a debt ceiling farce that equally devalues the USD. in fact, i can imagine the remote possibility of the first debt margin hike being turned down by the senate. what easier way to devalue the USD and melt up the equities market than feigning default on ones debt? matters as to if enough corporate lobbying has bought enough politicians to assure proper compliance in a timely manner.

i predict a slight divergence in corporate and politico objectives as the former tries for higher profits, looser regulations, and ultimately a new world currency (most likely electronic credit/debit based in structure. any paper representative would be the ultimate in fiat. paper representing imaginary 1s and 0s in cyberspace. pure fiction) while the elected and appointed bureaucracy vies for job security, power, and ultimately a new world order/ one world government. there will be a few dumb/naive/honest/truthful politicians that either try to save their careers or souls or ensure they can walk the streets post collapse, but it wont be enough (*cough, RP, *cough). there are likely an equal amount that will jump ship, like Timmeh. its so easy, just sext an intern or assault a maid, resign, and cash in your fat pension and move to Sri Lanka to work on that base tan & a book deal. chicks dig authors w/ bronze pects. shibby.

unfortunately, the debt ceiling must be raised first before Benny can unleash the full power of his Deskjets. fed pension coffers are nearing depletion. "temporary" debt ceiling hike of 1.4Tril$ w/ no spending cuts or tax increases will be next (week). just promises for the future. the bobble heads want neither, they will force the Proletariat to beg for a debt margin hike, "Please almighty Ponzi, raise your spending limit to remove all the scary fears you have instilled in me of the real world." and TPTB will choke back a sneer and oblige. and even then he can only QE up in response to a shitty market, not preemptively, as much as im sure he would love to.

i love the Catch22 we are stuck in regarding the QE3. it is now w/o a doubt certain. there will be a QE3 which will lead to QE∞ and the collapse of the USD, the world's reserve currency. they will either re-enact the gold standard, bringing us back to the 1900s, or repackaging the same ol' fiat, or what i mentioned previously, which would bring us some strange Orwellian, Old Testament/Revelations, AD2666 thing. idk, i try not think of them in control of a system such as that. a tool is only as evil as the project that it is used for. its still all black/white w/ them, shame...

but, as long as the markets dont head down, there is no need for more QE. bet you me, Ben is scratching his meth bugs as he goes thru withdrawals of money printing. QE2Lite isnt even enough to rid him of the shakes (quivering lip anyone? glassy eyes? bwahahaha). youll get the continuing threat of more QE, more political intermezzo, and dont forget a downgrade by Moody's, which is bullish for equities imo. USD was safe last time, this time not so much. let the race to the bottom continue.

im still watching for margin hikes in gold. :wink:

if all you do is stock up on 1/10oz of gold, 1oz of silver, a gun w/ mags & rounds, some food, and water, and maybe a nice head stash, even if none of what i state comes to fruition, and i lose all my money in my speculations, you will have lost little to nothing & i will have felt confident that i tried helping others protect their financial and physical security, regardless of the possible real world outcomes.

sometimes i honestly hope im wrong, but then i realize the math doesnt lie & real change is good. truth is the destruction of ones delusions, not the support of them. bring on the destruction, baby. stay frosty,

"You never want a serious crisis to go to waste." Rahm Emanuel

"This too shall pass." - King Solomon

-iD

p.s.- Gramps is ITM imo, i agree w/ 99% of what you state. +3.14 BTMFD! good stuff.

 

[headiez247]

who needs QE3 when you have the threat of which that works just as well? or a debt ceiling farce that equally devalues the USD. in fact, i can imagine the remote possibility of the first debt margin hike being turned down by the senate. what easier way to devalue the USD and melt up the equities market than feigning default on ones debt? matters as to if enough corporate lobbying has bought enough politicians to assure proper compliance in a timely manner.

i predict a slight divergence in corporate and politico objectives as the former tries for higher profits, looser regulations, and ultimately a new world currency (most likely electronic credit/debit based in structure. any paper representative would be the ultimate in fiat. paper representing imaginary 1s and 0s in cyberspace. pure fiction) while the elected and appointed bureaucracy vies for job security, power, and ultimately a new world order/ one world government. there will be a few dumb/naive/honest/truthful politicians that either try to save their careers or souls or ensure they can walk the streets post collapse, but it wont be enough (*cough, RP, *cough). there are likely an equal amount that will jump ship, like Timmeh. its so easy, just sext an intern or assault a maid, resign, and cash in your fat pension and move to Sri Lanka to work on that base tan & a book deal. chicks dig authors w/ bronze pects. shibby.

unfortunately, the debt ceiling must be raised first before Benny can unleash the full power of his Deskjets. fed pension coffers are nearing depletion. "temporary" debt ceiling hike of 1.4Tril$ w/ no spending cuts or tax increases will be next (week). just promises for the future. the bobble heads want neither, they will force the Proletariat to beg for a debt margin hike, "Please almighty Ponzi, raise your spending limit to remove all the scary fears you have instilled in me of the real world." and TPTB will choke back a sneer and oblige. and even then he can only QE up in response to a shitty market, not preemptively, as much as im sure he would love to.

i love the Catch22 we are stuck in regarding the QE3. it is now w/o a doubt certain. there will be a QE3 which will lead to QE∞ and the collapse of the USD, the world's reserve currency. they will either re-enact the gold standard, bringing us back to the 1900s, or repackaging the same ol' fiat, or what i mentioned previously, which would bring us some strange Orwellian, Old Testament/Revelations, AD2666 thing. idk, i try not think of them in control of a system such as that. a tool is only as evil as the project that it is used for. its still all black/white w/ them, shame...

but, as long as the markets dont head down, there is no need for more QE. bet you me, Ben is scratching his meth bugs as he goes thru withdrawals of money printing. QE2Lite isnt even enough to rid him of the shakes (quivering lip anyone? glassy eyes? bwahahaha). youll get the continuing threat of more QE, more political intermezzo, and dont forget a downgrade by Moody's, which is bullish for equities imo. USD was safe last time, this time not so much. let the race to the bottom continue.

im still watching for margin hikes in gold. :wink:

if all you do is stock up on 1/10oz of gold, 1oz of silver, a gun w/ mags & rounds, some food, and water, and maybe a nice head stash, even if none of what i state comes to fruition, and i lose all my money in my speculations, you will have lost little to nothing & i will have felt confident that i tried helping others protect their financial and physical security, regardless of the possible real world outcomes.

sometimes i honestly hope im wrong, but then i realize the math doesnt lie & real change is good. truth is the destruction of ones delusions, not the support of them. bring on the destruction, baby. stay frosty,

"You never want a serious crisis to go to waste." Rahm Emanuel

"This too shall pass." - King Solomon

-iD

p.s.- Gramps is ITM imo, i agree w/ 99% of what you state. +3.14 BTMFD! good stuff.

man talk about a conspiracy theory. u should go join that dude who fled for the mountains after the japan nuclear accident who swore that by now we would all be dead if we were under 10,000 feet.

 

[The iD]

ironically, hes prolly getting more radiation at that altitude than wherever he was originally. unless originally he was from japan. and possibly Nebraska soon. its all theory until an apple falls on your head.

-iD

 

[SpasticGramps]

man talk about a conspiracy theory. u should go join that dude who fled for the mountains after the japan nuclear accident who swore that by now we would all be dead if we were under 10,000 feet.

Interesting you should say that. For non-traders who do not understand the current market dynamics talking to traders it sounds like "conspiracy." I bet if I told you in 2006 that the economy was going to collapse you would have called me crazy. The fundamental problem that 95% of the sheep don't understand is the market is completely rigged and centrally controlled now. It's always been rigged, but now it's so micro-managed it's funny to watch. There is only one trade. It's all one side or the other of the US dollar as it sinks.

I know many people are still holding onto "hope" that some sort of magical recovery will materialize. They are engaging in cognitive dissonance, self-delusion, and wishful thinking. The truth is the music has already stopped. We are borrowing money to pay the interest on our debt. We've really already defaulted. All that is left now is for the rotting edifice to be exposed to the proles.

For some reason American's believe that because they are American we will be #1 forever and our currency can never fail. This is typical hubris of a hegemonic empire right before it goes down the toilet. To be blunt it's brainwashing and indoctrination via the concept of "American Exceptionalsim."

I don't really see this as all that depressing. This rotten system needs to collapse and be purged. There is going to be a lot of money to be made for the people who aren't part of the herd running off the cliff.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Lots of talking heads on CNBC, Bloomberg, etc are saying that this coming crisis is the easiest in our nations history to see. I certainly agree with them. I believe this to be the case because this will be the last crisis the USA has to face as the hegemonic power of the world or maybe even as a union at all.

It's Going to Be 2008 on Steroids

The 2008 Crisis occurred when private US banks became so distrustful of one another’s balance sheet risk that interbank liquidity dried up triggering a systemic implosion in the unregulated derivatives market, particularly in Credit Default Swaps (which was a $50-60 trillion market at the time).

The Federal Reserve dealt with this situation by suspending accounting policies (permitting banks to lie about their true balance sheet risk), offering to backstop those banks with the greatest derivative exposure (JP Morgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup), shifting trillions of dollars’ worth of toxic debt to the US balance sheet and then funneling trillions of new dollars into the banks most at risk of a derivative collapse (the banks I listed before).

In simple terms, the Fed attempted to paper over the problems of insolvency that were plaguing the large financial institutions. This scheme could have worked if the Fed had demanded that the large banks decrease their leverage, cease making the deals that created these problems and began regulating the derivatives market.

However, the Fed is run by spineless academics not financial professionals or real businesspeople. So the Fed did not implement any meaningful reform. All it did was temporarily slow the pace of systemic implosion and give Wall Street a “get out of jail free” pass.

From a philosophical perspective, the Fed removed the notion of “risk of failure” from Wall Street’s collective mind. As anyone who’s studied human behavior can tell you, without consequence for one’s actions most people will take their bad behaviors to the limit (I am not saying that there is no such thing as a principled person or one who lives a moral life… but generally speaking, most people, especially those who work on Wall Street where every move in focused on making more money, will take things to the max).

As a result of this, Wall Street went back to doing what caused the Financial Crisis in the first place: increasing leverage, fleecing clients, and paying its employees’ excessive salaries.

As a result of this, the financial system is once again overleveraged. Meanwhile, the large banks continue to be insolvent due to their gargantuan derivative exposure. Put another way, the financial system is primed for another 2008 episode. The very same issues that caused 2008 remain in place. Leverage is far too high. And the unregulated derivatives market remains a multi-hundred trillion dollar problem.

So this time around it will sovereign nations collapsing instead of just US banks. Yes, entire countries will default whether it be Greece, Italy, Spain, OR the US. There is no way we’ll be paying our debts off.

This in turn will kick off another 2008 episode as all the over-leveraged players (read: EVERYONE) will have to sell positions to meet margin/ redemption calls. However, this time around we’ll also see civil unrest as people lose their social safety nets (unemployment, social security, etc).

 

[s13sr20det]

google is killing it!

 

[SpasticGramps]

In case anyone had any questions as to who is actually controlling the market......

Apparently we are so broke right now that even the Treasury can no longer afford to manipulate the market. They will have to raid the Exchange Stabilization Fund. That's probably not good since it's only them, the FED, and some Goldman Sach's computer algorithms still trading this farce. I don't think the President's Working Group (Plunge Protection Team) is going to like that.

Treasury To Stop Funding Its Market Manipulation Fund To Delay US Bankruptcy

After pillaging the G Fund and Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund (CSRDF), aka the Government retirement funds, Tim Geithner was just forced to resort to the final debt ceiling extension measure: suspending reinvestment in the Exchange Stabilization Fund, much better known as the mechanism by which the Treasury manipulate the stock and the FX market, often times indirectly and on occasion with CIA assistance. What this means is that FX vol will likely hit unseen levels in the next several weeks as the Treasury's manipulative ways are strongly curtailed.

From the Treasury:

Update: As Previously Announced, Treasury to Employ Final Extraordinary Measure to Extend U.S. Borrowing Authority Until August 2
WASHINGTON – Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury released the following statement from Jeffrey Goldstein, Under Secretary for Domestic Finance, regarding the use of the last of the four previously announced measures available to keep our nation under the statutory debt limit, suspension of reinvestment of the Exchange Stabilization Fund.

“Today, as previously announced, the Treasury Department will suspend reinvestment of the Exchange Stabilization Fund, the last of the measures available to keep the nation under the statutory debt limit. In order to prevent a default on the nation’s obligations, Congress must enact a timely increase of the debt ceiling.”

The U.S. reached the debt limit on May 16, 2011, but the Treasury Department has employed three previous measures to temporarily extend our ability to meet the nation’s obligations. Those measures, in order taken, are (1) suspending issuance of State and Local Government Series (SLGS) Treasury securities; (2) declaring a “debt issuance suspension period” of the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund (CSRDF); and (3) suspending reinvestment of the Government Securities Investment Fund (G Fund).

As previously stated in the May, June, and July monthly updates, taken altogether, these four extraordinary measures allow the Treasury to extend borrowing authority until August 2, 2011.

To broke to manipulate the ponzi anymore. What a sad state of affairs this country has become. What a farce and insult to capitalism, freedom, and intelligence. One thing is for sure though. The free market will eventually cleanse us of this voodoo economics Keynesian experiment.

 

[gonzo`]

please crash so we can all buy some cheap assets, i beg of you...

 

[iSMOKE.KUSH]

please crash so we can all buy some cheap assets, i beg of you...

hopefully you have gold or silver to buy those assets.