Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[SpasticGramps]

After the other days bashing in Europe which spread over here when the LTRO high officially ended. The FED's propaganda spewers have been out in full force jawboning the market higher.

Now we learn that they'll have to keep interest rates at 0% until 2015 now! The recovery just isn't quiiiiiiite sustainable yet. I'm shocked. Shocked I tell you. That helped push the markets high yesterday. Obviosuly the FED will and cannot ever raise interest rates again. When they do finally go up the market will have ended the FED.

Today, after the dismal jobs report, they were running around saying that QE3 (or following Apple's lead "The New QE") is likely coming soon, "just not yet". Markets popped hard on the news.

So let's review trading a centrally planned market. Good news is good. Bad news is much better because it means that markets will get their next massive dose of "monetary heroin" (as FED Fisher likes to call it).

And this is why I say it takes massive balls to short this market. If there is a slight down tick. The monetarist central planners go on a media blitz tour about how more printing is coming soon and the junkie starts drooling.

It's easy to get caught picking up nickels in front of the steamroller.

It certainly looks like volatility is back which is too be expected after each coma inducing QE, LTRO, or whatever the fuck wears off.

Pass me the phizzy please.

 

[SpasticGramps]

The CEO of the biggest bond fund in the world (PIMCO) captures the monetarist's dilemma in his new relese.

"In the last three plus years, central banks have had little choice but to do the unsustainable in order to sustain the unsustainable until others do the sustainable to restore sustainability!"PIMCO's El-Erian

El-Erian Breaches The Final Frontier: What Happens If Central Banks Fail?

Concluding remarks

After diffusing a material threat of a global depression, central banks in the advanced economies did a good job in maintaining a certain status quo in the midst of too much debt, too little growth, too much inequality, and an historic global economic realignment. Critically, they succeeded in their overwhelming priority of avoiding an economic depression. Concurrently, they reduced the risk of market overshoots and disruptive multiple equilibrium dynamics, thereby alleviating well-founded concerns about extreme negative tail risk events, including a renewed financial meltdown.

This success involved the unprecedented use of tools available to central banks. In the process, central banks stretched like never before in the era of modern central banking the very concept of a monetary institution. And while the benefits were immediate in the crisis management phase, they have been less consistent when it it comes to securing certain economic outcomes. Also they have come at a potential cost and with risks. They are also serving to alter behavioral relationships, change market functioning and modify the configuration of certain market segments.

I think that we have reached the legitimate point of – and the need for – much greater debate on whether the benefits of such unusual central bank activism sufficiently justify the costs and risks. This is not an issue of central banks’ desire to do good in a world facing an “unusually uncertain” outlook. Rather, it relates to questions about diminishing returns and the eroding potency of the current policy stances.

Fundamentally, what is increasingly in play today is the set of challenges facing central banks’ tool kit in a world that also confronts meaningful structural (as opposed to just cyclical) and solvency headwinds. This is about the balance between continued benefits and unintended consequences/collateral damage. It also speaks to the extent to which the crutches of unusual central bank activism risk being treated as substitutes for actions by other policymaking entities, politicians, businesses and capital markets.

In sum, it is about the concept of sustainability – not only for economies but also for central banks as healthy, credible and politically robust institutions in our national, regional and global economies.

Where the global economy goes from here will depend less on the actions of central banks and more on whether others, including other government agencies and private sector participants that have the ability to act but lack sufficient willingness to do so, finally step up to the plate. Only with the supportive actions of others can central banks pivot – away from using the unsustainable to sustain the unsustainable, and toward a better equilibrium for them and for the global economy (i.e., sustainability).

The need for others to step up to the plate does not mean that central banks are off the hook. Quite the contrary.

In the period ahead, central banks will need to consider how best to navigate what may increasingly morph over time into a bi-modal distribution for expected economic outcomes, especially in Europe. They could also find themselves countering even more complicated self-insurance behavior on the part of the private sector. And the political context could get more difficult.

Rather than lead the parade of advanced nations – which they have done so skillfully and boldly since the outbreak of the global financial crisis – central banks risk find themselves increasingly in the position of followers. And they will do so in the context of uncertainties about the overall construct of a global economy that is now operating with a weaker traditional core but no ready and able substitutes.

The welfare of millions in the United States, if not billions of people around the world, will have suffered greatly if central banks end up in the unpleasant position of having to clean up after a parade of advanced nations that headed straight into a global recession and a disorderly debt deflation. Let us therefore hope that central banks will, instead, find themselves part of a much broader policy effort headed toward high sustainable growth, ample job creation, less income and wealth inequality and financial soundness.

Bernanke's got it in the bag. "100%"

 

[SpasticGramps]

Major sell off in Europe today (Spain and Italy down 3.7%) others down 2%.

US markets are selling off again. All on worries over Spain. Spain is the new Greece for the markets. Spanish CDS just blew up to close at a record high.

Volatility has returned with a vengeance. Anyone have a couple trillion $$$ to spare to prop this house of cards up for a couple more months?

 

[SpasticGramps]

Anyone have a couple trillion $$$ to spare to prop this house of cards up for a couple more months?

Here's the IMF's LaGarde doing the official begging. This is getting pretty ridiculous.

Euro Area Seeks Bigger IMF War Chest on Spanish Concerns

European officials travel to Washington this week seeking a bigger global war chest to combat the debt crisis as Spain’s government battles to quell renewed market turmoil over its finances.

Three weeks after European leaders unveiled emergency euro- area funding exceeding the symbolic $1 trillion mark, concerns about Spain’s position have ratcheted the nation’s borrowing costs to the highest levels this year. Crisis-fighting resources will dominate talks at the International Monetary Fund’s spring meeting in Washington from April 20-22.

While the U.S. insists that Europe can overcome the crisis using its own financial firepower, euro-area officials say they’ve done enough to trigger additional global assistance. The urgency was underscored last week as Spanish and Italian yields jumped, challenging assumptions among the region’s leaders that the worst of the fallout was behind them.

“After three months that were calmer than expected, the euro crisis is back,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London. “The speed of the recent surge in yields has elements of a renewed market panic.”

Spain’s 10-year bond yield climbed 19 basis points last week to 5.98 percent, while similar-maturity Italian yields increased seven basis points to 5.52 percent. The euro retreated against the U.S. dollar April 13, falling 0.8 percent to $1.3078, bringing the decline since Feb. 28 to 2.4 percent.

The surge in borrowing costs prompted Spain’s deputy economy minister, Jaime Garcia-Legaz, to call on the European Central Bank to resume its direct intervention in the markets.

Spain is just about to be locked out of capital markets. 3.5 year crisis has now reached the core of Europe. The financial cancer spreads. The ECB will no doubt monetize in the short term but it is bumping into political barriers.

Print big or go home.

 

[Zen Master]

so California is such a bitch state with its laws. No badass guns, no awesome hot rods, and a tax on PM's if its less than $1500 purchased at one time.

I'm a small fish with a limited amount of income to even put towards my investments so this fux with my dollar cost averaging, however might work out in the long run spacing out my purchases further than I initially planned.


finally got my feet wet (get ready cuz here comes a dip for you guys ) with a 1/2 oz of gold and a lil over 20 of silver

feels sooooo good holdin that shit in my hand


very short term I'm kinda bearish for PMs actually but short-medium term I'm all smiles. I can't help but check the charts daily but I'm just gonna stack and stack and stack..... Bitchez (I want to make a ZH shirt that says that )

 

[Hydrosun]

so California is such a bitch state with its laws. No badass guns, no awesome hot rods, and a tax on PM's if its less than $1500 purchased at one time.

I'm a small fish with a limited amount of income to even put towards my investments so this fux with my dollar cost averaging, however might work out in the long run spacing out my purchases further than I initially planned.


finally got my feet wet (get ready cuz here comes a dip for you guys ) with a 1/2 oz of gold and a lil over 20 of silver

feels sooooo good holdin that shit in my hand


very short term I'm kinda bearish for PMs actually but short-medium term I'm all smiles. I can't help but check the charts daily but I'm just gonna stack and stack and stack..... Bitchez (I want to make a ZH shirt that says that )

Fuck their rules and laws! We are cannabis growers and smokers. Purchase your metals for CASH, never pay tax. If the seller wants a 3rd party involved (the state of CA), laugh and walk away.

Ebay is great for picking up smaller amounts of silver and gold. The sellers there don't charge tax, and are respected sellers in most cases.

 

[Zen Master]

yeah I only pay cash, no paper trail back to me. I'm younger than most investors that are into bullion (or so I assume) and the clerk probably thought I was just some kid checkin out the shiny stuff and disregarded me at first. I know how it is though, been there done that. As soon as I was like, "nah I'm droppin a G at minimum" I was like a kid in a candy store.

I got some junk silver just in case (when) SHTF; a bar and some eagles/maples.

question for the PM people.... My 1/2 oz Gold eagle is 16.92 grams.... thats OVER by 1.36 grams... That seems exorbitantly excessive to me as a gram of gold is running about $53 as of spot this second.... My silver eagles are all on point with weight and my scale is accurate. Even if its off by a LITTLE, 1.36g is past a little.... (If thats the difference between 22k and 24k than it makes sense as the coins are 22k IIRC)


Edit: just did the math... its almost perfect math if its a 22kt coin as I suspect (which upon further research shows it is infact a 22kt coin.... so I was just ignorant of the weight of a 22kt 1/2 oz coin.) future reference for PM buyers

 

[Hydrosun]

1 troy ounce = 31.1034768 grams

Come on now, we are young but know the difference between troy and AVDP

1 avoirdupois pound contains 16 (avoirdupois) ounces. This makes an Avoirdupois pound equal to about 453.6 grams, or the equivalent of 14.583 "troy ounces".

smoking AVDP stacking Troy

Your coin should be .999 or .9999 so 24 carrot. You just didn't know know about troy v. AVDP

Your AG Eagles and Maple Leaves better be 31.1034768grms or they are counterfit. Also I saw a neat trick where a magnet was used to spot the fake silver coins. Gold and silver are NOT magnetic.

 

[Zen Master]

yeah I know troy vs avdp

.. a US American Eagle is 22k. If you can show me otherwise I'd be thrilled to hear its 24k.

the silver eagles and maples are 31.1g. however its the gold eagle thats 'over' in my case.

with a purity of 91.67% (aka 22 karat) the 1/2 oz gold eagle is almost perfect on point in regards to weight. I was just unaware of the weight diff between 24 and 22k gold. a newbie mistake TBH.

 

[Hydrosun]

You win! I am a silver nerd, and didn't know au eagles were 22 crt. However if you have an error from the US mint it is valuable really valuable. I hope it is a winner not counterfeit.

 

[Tripsick]

So Spain goes to BBB+ and no fucks were given that day?

I really would have thought this whole thing would have come crashing down by now.

I Guess the powers that be wont allow that to happen yet.

 

[Madrus Rose]

So Spain goes to BBB+ and no fucks were given that day?

I really would have thought this whole thing would have come crashing down by now.

I Guess the powers that be wont allow that to happen yet.

There was already a pullback on the industrial slowdown & growth in China demand & still bottoming housing/loan markets & Euro economic situation while at the same time kiting up oil prices on the Iran nuclear noise . So China's GDP cooled down to 8% from 11% topping out last year still growing rapidly & Brazil was well , Euro political/economic problems are still mired & clouded future yet to be fully realized . China just experienced a big political shake up of its own with ousted communist fundamentalist party leader Bo xi Lai which actally was a good thing for the world . Spain's downgrade was just another thing they knew already will come into play later .

There was this period of two weeks right before Apple reported that offered some great shorting opportunity after the market with Apple leading kept motoring up & up but from $644 we saw it pullback systematically down back to the 200ma @ $555 just the day before the report . That window of shorting had to be anticipated & taken advantage of while it lasted for Apple had runnup so far & fundies locked in profits but the pullback buying that 200ma @ $555 long took some nerves of steel going into the report . Hardly anyone thought that Apple would pullback all the way to the 200ma but while it was doing that all the high flyers got sold down for good shorting including IBM .

The negative sentiment had taken hold for that two weeks leading up to Apple's report that many were still bold enough to take short postions but big money had already sold into that previous rise to $620-$640 to reposition lower , leaving alot of stuck retail holders up at those levels ...or who panicked & sold during the swoon . While Apple was correcting was the the window for shorting but they delivered the goods in spades followed on by AMZN so earnings season still commands center stage & just after or right in here short positions might be taken again .

Still some big reports coming in this next week & while its Earnings Season they put the World problems somewhat on hold for this is when they all make their biggest money trading thru this period & as we all know Money is God ! They play it beautifully selling into the momo letting it fall back while others buy the tops on hype then reposition far lower in some like Apple that they're pretty sure will blow it out..then squeeze the cr@p out of the trapped shorts .

Still some biggies reporting this week , look at PCLN/Priceline that pulled back down to the 50ma nearly 100pts while Apple faltered , there was the chance for shorting & cashing in bigtime but not with earnings right up ahead after APPLE killed it with the report & followed by Amazon's cooked numbers . (Though friday you could have shorted PCLN mid day at the peak & did 10pts , PCLN squeezes so mercilessly it always gives back some , just dont be early when you short intraday....or take small losses to reposition higher till u get it right )


* Also MA/Master Card is due up this week too and after these reports & the shorts get squeezed some more , then probably going to see some topping action again for they will hype it up , lure in as much retail as the Fundies & Insiders can to sell into at the top ...and the cycle starts all over again ...rinsey, washy repeat!

;o)

 

[Madrus Rose]

Home Depot just relentless rise & the homebuilders LEN TOL PHM even KBH bouncing....am sure the pot industry has kept Home Depot busy thru the slow period

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p53316100820

(AAPL above meant pulled down just below the 50ma not the 200ma, support there @ $550 now stymied at the 20ma overhead )

 

[SpasticGramps]

Chesapeake is getting absolutely destroyed. Stupid f'ing CEO is a damn thief and a con man. He was in the 1980's and he's back doing it again.

Their debt load was already ridiculous. They are going to eventually run into cash flow problems. He's setting up to be the next Enron or WorldCom. Stock was down 14% today and has been bleeding off for a long time. Shorters beware though. It's a crowded trade and susceptible to massive little rallies.

In general news, here is a great CNBC video clip. I love it the talking head shills get their propaganda debunked by someone who knows what is going on.

Zuckerman To CNBC: "The Recession Never Ended"

Everyone's favorite perma-bullish stand-in for Cramer, Fast Money's Scott Wapner, seemed lost for words when Boston Properties CEO Mort Zuckerman laid down some basic truthiness on the state of the US economy "We have the most stimulative fiscal and monetary policy in the history of this country and here we are three years into the recession and it's not ended. I think we may be heading for an even weaker economy this year than people expect." The righteous REIT ruler went on to note that it is not just the US but Europe (ridiculously high unemployment rates) where he analogizes (rather picturesquely) that it reminds him of "the man who jumps off a 25-story building and as he's hurtling by the sixth floor he says 'don't worry, nothing has happened yet'." Wapner is silenced and changes the topic as we suspect he is stunned at the honest sentiment given the nominal three-year-highs in REIT indices. Truth is indeed stranger than fiat-fiction.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Global markets on selling off on the results of the French and Greek votes. The French vote is being touted as the most important by the MSM, but it's the Greek vote that will respark the Euro meltdown contagion fires like never before.

Nationalism is back in Europe. The Greek's have essentially voted for an Anti-Bailout (read end of Euro) coalition. Puppet Papademos isn't sleeping well tonight. The pro-banking occupation party was crushed. Anti-Bailout Communist and Far Right Statists parties surged heavily.

So much so that the Greek Parliament will now be anti-austerity and anti-Europe.

Given that much of Europe is officially in recession, Greece will likely hard default and exit the Euro soon, Asia is slowing down, Oil is dropping hard, and the US economy is "officially" rolling over might now be a good time to get short.

Given that the ECB just blew it's load with LTRO 1 and 2 along with the increased FX swap lines with the FED from last year to keep everything from melting down, I'm looking for the FED to step in this summer or right after with a huge fiat money dump (QE3).

 

[Tripsick]

Hows Silver looking these days?

 

[Hydrosun]

Hows Silver looking these days?

7.5 - 9.0gal unleaded per 1oz 999. Way better than 3.0 gal in 1999 - 2000.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Shit. Careful for getting short. Since last night the Spanish PM has come out and announced that he would use public funds to bailout Spain's insolvent banks because they are in a credit freeze.

He's decried this for years saying he would never ever ever do such a terrible thing, but just as always math wins over rhetoric and puppet politicians bow to their banking overlords. The Spaniards will be forced to handover what little money they have left to bailout crooked banksters so that what's little left of their economy to can bled dry. Score one more for the Vampire Squid. I'm sure this will calm the protests and riots.

Doing the unsustainable to prop up the unsustainable. BRILLIANT!

 

[SpasticGramps]

Anyone want to buy some of those new Greek Bonds?

Getting destroyed this morning. 10y is back over 23% already. It's really not funny considering the Greece is sinking into what will likely playout as it's greatest depression ever, but considering that the entire developed world is slowly following the same path to economic destruction, laugh it up while you can.

Last time something like this happened in Europe it ended up with heads rolling in the street. Quite literally.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Greek Left Coalition Leaders Says Bailout Accord "Null And Void", Demands Greek Debt Moratorium

Hardly a surprise to anyone, but here it is black on white - Greece officially makes the odds for a Euro departure well over 50%:

• TSIPRAS SAYS GREEK RESULTS MAKES BAILOUT ACCORD NULL AND VOID
• TSIPRAS SAYS GREEKS HAVE VOTED AGAINST BARBARIC BAILOUT
  
• TSIPRAS SAYS WON'T JOIN A GOVT OF NATIONAL SALVATION FOR LOAN
• TSIPRAS SAYS GREEKS HAVE ENDED PLANS FOR ADDITIONAL AUSTERITY
• TSIPRAS SAYS TO REDISTRIBUTE TAX BURDEN, DEVELOP GROWTH PLANS
• TSIPRAS SAYS WILL STICK TO PRE-ELECTION PLEDGES
• TSIPRAS ASKS VENIZELOS, SAMARAS TO RENEGE PLEDGES IN WRITING

And here it comes

• GREECE'S TSIPRAS SAYS WANTS INTERNATIONAL COMMISSION TO INVESTIGATE IF GREECE'S DEBT IS LEGAL
• TSIPRAS SAYS MUST BE MORATORIUM ON GREEK DEBT PAYMENTS

Remember Odious Debt?
EURUSD and all other risk assets, so carefully bought by US traders as they walked in this morning, are now sliding.

Game over begins for the Euro pipe dream.

Fitch is already running around saying that a Greece exit "wouldn't be unbearable" after all. This after years of political rhetoric that any countries exit from the Euro would be the end of the world.

I guess we are going to find out sooner than later.