Plummeting Marijuana Prices for Growers

[Yes4Prop215]

It's been a very long time posting here. I can't believe Its been almost 10 years since OG was shut down and I migrated over here.

For those who don't know me. I own a MMJ Collective in Los Angeles. Pre-ICO. I'll save my local political rants for another time and get straight to the point. It is flooded and has been flooded down here for about 2 years now. Prices for outdoor to collectives are now at 1000-1200 for very good outdoor and 2000-2800 for indoor. Depending on quantity bought. In LA, almost all collectives have been hurt in sales because of political drama down here the past few years. Mainly because most do not advertise anymore. If you are a grower trying to sell your meds, it's extremely tough. Because of the laws every place is trying to grow their own right now.

prices seem to be all over the place in LA. i see some shops selling good OG for only 25 an 8th which is freakin crazy. but i also see other shops selling the same quality OG for 60 an 8th only a 30 min drive away.

but yea it does seem that most dispos are all trying to have their shelves stocked with in-house grown flowers.

i will still sell for 25-28 all day for indoor OG and other good stuff. but 1-12 for outdoors is no deal because you can easily get double that with just a little extra work.

 

[SooperSmurph]

Prices seem to be stabilizing about where I thought they would, the increased prices and demand of Recreational kept the market from being damaged too badly, but only time will tell how things pan out when we have a proper season of Colorado Outdoor, last years heavy rains protected us from the Croptober crash that usually hits in Cali every Fall, this year I can see a lot of dispensaries filling their shelves with decent smoking but carelessly grown outdoor that is better than the stuff from Cali simply because of our ideal weed growing climate / humidity levels.

 

[Scottish Research]

This is a great thread. The bottom line is that industry has matured in CA, and that means in order to make money one has to really understand that this is a business. Just cause you're the best grower around does not insure success. It's not enough to just be a talented grower, you need to know your market and create SOPs for every function in the business.

 

[oldchuck]

^Get your GMO Roundup Ready Cannabis right there. Big Pharma approved.

 

[ogrerun]

It will all level out the good will be seperated from the bad and payout will folllow suit...those thst do it with love will prevail those that dont wont last

 

[Arthritis_sucks]

carelessly grown outdoor that is better than the stuff from Cali simply because of our ideal weed growing climate / humidity levels.

 

[Little Hill]

Prices seem to be stabilizing about where I thought they would, the increased prices and demand of Recreational kept the market from being damaged too badly, but only time will tell how things pan out when we have a proper season of Colorado Outdoor, last years heavy rains protected us from the Croptober crash that usually hits in Cali every Fall, this year I can see a lot of dispensaries filling their shelves with decent smoking but carelessly grown outdoor that is better than the stuff from Cali simply because of our ideal weed growing climate / humidity levels.

Ummmm...I don't want to get into a pissing contest about what state has a better climate but that statement is just basically said the CO weather prevented a large harvest and also that climate is ideal in CO. It also said that most it carelessly grown. I agree that CO does not have the OD knowledge base that CA has. I've seen a lot of pictures of CO greenhouses from last fall and they were lame. I know there are people rocking it too but the average farmer has a long way to go out there.

On another topic...what are ya'll getting for BHO...shatter or wax? Properly purged of course. (<500ppm residual solvents)

 

[Little Hill]

Organic Cali Greenhouse SFV OG

Organic Cali Greenhouse SFV OG

Full season replant after light dep.

 

[thunderdrum]

Legal wholesalers in WA state will have major price adjusting to do as the retailer has to tack on $35 tax on each $100 worth of weed. The person paying $100 per half ounce isn't going to pay $135, so now the wholesaler has to reduce price by 30% just to retail business growing. That's where a lot of legal production growers will fail. I think CO has much less tax on weed. WA state has the 25% weed tax plus the normal 10% sales tax. Wholesale prices will need to be around $1200 per pound and my understanding is most think they will still get $1600 LB doing it legally for the state...

 

[Sam_Skunkman]

Why do wholesale prices need to be 1200 or 1600 a pound?
Is that written in stone?
Do all growers have to grow under lights?
What about greenhouse grown?
If tomatoes can be grown in greenhouses and sold for less then $5 a pound, $1-$5 a pound in supermarkets and the growers make a profit, how much do you think it costs to produce a pound of Cannabis? I bet the biggest expense besides taxes is hand manicuring, so sell it un-manicured, or machine manicured, wholesale, you could let the consumer buy it cheaper and manicure it themselves.
Whatever the price, if to high then people will rebel and buy blackmarket Cannabis tax free from California outdoor growers the price there is much less then what you quote, and people do know how to get Cannabis to anywhere. It is a basic law of the universe "Cannabis Osmosis" that anyplace that has a cheaper surplus of Cannabis finds a way to get it to places where there is not enough or the prices are higher. Same with better quality.
Lets see, to get 1600 net wholesale that means when sold retail it will be say 3200 + tax of 800, $4000 + 10% tax? if keystoned like most retail sales, $250+ an ounce, is that a joke or did I miss something?
You can get great california pounds for 1/4 the 4000 or even less.
People in California have so much herb that they are just BHOing it to save the hassles of drying manicuring, storage, transport, etc. etc. I am waiting for the $100 a kilo prices then I can find the best and sift it all up to make dry sift...
I look forward to it. People just have no understanding that while sinsemilla was costing $5,000-$10,000 a kilo here in the USA, you could buy sinsemilla in Asia and elsewhere for between 5$ and $50 a kilo, and still they were making much more then they could with veggies.
Cannabis in the USA will be produced for a much cheaper price in the near future when legal, all the price supports will be gone. Grows will be done, even organic ones, the cheapest way to get the best results, I bet that is not under lights.

-SamS

Legal wholesalers in WA state will have major price adjusting to do as the retailer has to tack on $35 tax on each $100 worth of weed. The person paying $100 per half ounce isn't going to pay $135, so now the wholesaler has to reduce price by 30% just to retail business growing. That's where a lot of legal production growers will fail. I think CO has much less tax on weed. WA state has the 25% weed tax plus the normal 10% sales tax. Wholesale prices will need to be around $1200 per pound and my understanding is most think they will still get $1600 LB doing it legally for the state...

 

[Sam_Skunkman]

So you are saying that Organic, top shelf, grade AAA bud will never be mass produced even if legal?
I am wondering how do organic, top shelf, grade AAA organic vegetables get mass produced and sold, or do you say there are none?
The market is growing bigger every year..
Of course the highest quality can be produced by the tons, you just need to concentrate on quality, and don't cut any corners, try and give more to your plants then you take, it is not easy but I assure you it can be done. The real problem has been it is much easier to focus on money and profit, rather then quality. But just because you are mass producing does not mean the quality has to be shit.
I think Dom Pérignon champagne is mass produced, but they do keep the quality very high...
I have been an organic, bio-dynamic vegetable and Cannabis grower for 4 decades, if you focus on quality first, there are no limits to quantity. It just takes a lot more effort and expense that is all.
-SamS

Truely organic, top shelf, grade AAA bud will never be mass produced no matter how legal. It will be impossible for them to deliver this level of quality, grown without tons of chemicals and carefully handled and hand trimmed. Regardless of all the toxins they will have to use, just the machine trimming alone will degrade the bud to a grade b or c. There will always be a niche for the small grower who can do it organically and with the utmost care and the best genetics.

 

[richyrich]

It is a basic law of the universe "Cannabis Osmosis"

LOL

 

[Little Hill]

Sam, I always enjoy your input though we don't always agree. $100 a pound pot would need to be processed into some other form to ad value to it. I don't see high quality concentrates being made from machine harvested or otherwise thrashed flowers. There is a necessary delicate treatment the plants needs when harvested in order to preserve the terpenes for later use. They are volatile as you probably know.

Dictating what the consumer should want from the farmers standpoint is difficult as some standards are already set though not in stone. Consumers want tightly trimmed frosty pungent buds...at least in this country. Not sure what they want in the EU or elsewhere. A Christmas tree farm style grow would not provide this level of quality.

 

[SirStynkalot]

Legal wholesalers in WA state will have major price adjusting to do as the retailer has to tack on $35 tax on each $100 worth of weed. The person paying $100 per half ounce isn't going to pay $135, so now the wholesaler has to reduce price by 30% just to retail business growing. That's where a lot of legal production growers will fail. I think CO has much less tax on weed. WA state has the 25% weed tax plus the normal 10% sales tax. Wholesale prices will need to be around $1200 per pound and my understanding is most think they will still get $1600 LB doing it legally for the state...

Prices first, opinion second.

I did the math out and WA's saying it's assuming prices to growers are going to be a minimum of 1700/lb indoor and prices to consumers 10-12 a gram and stabilized.

The WA consumer base won't take local outdoor. Outdoors is destined for pans and edibles. But the outdoor stuff that is going to be made is supposed to sell for minimum 850/lb (assuming they can actually sell it.)

Current retail on BHO all over the state's about 40 a gram (vacuum purged goes for 60). Bubble hash is 15-20. Unpurged oils or isopropyl alcohol oils go for 30 a gram but you don't see them on shelves that often since most dispensaries refuse to sell concentrates full of solvents (and I have YET to see a good batch of isopropyl alcohol oil. I don't think its possible.) Ethanol tinctures go for 20-30 a gram as far as I know.



Let's not forget the WA medical market is going to be open side by side with the WA legal market. I'm expecting prices to be pretty closely matched between the two, at least as far as cost to consumer goes. There are a lot of inexperienced would-be growers applying for permits so they may skew averages but overall the experienced indoor growers should still be seeing at least 2/lb for as much as they can move. Good thing too because the margins are a lot lower when you have all the costs of a legitimate business.

I DO think the price for concentrates will drop for the legal market compared to medical. Legal can't sell straight waxes - they have to dilute it in shit. That'll lower the value. But, more importantly, most of the newbie growers are going to have the cash on hand to get at least one or two crops off, and it's probably safe to say most of them will fuck up big. Even only figuring a 20% failure rate on new businesses, that's a WHOLE lot of concentrates getting dumped into the market compared to the overall product. I doubt the e-cig and medible industry is big enough to take that kind of supply untouched.

I've heard several big names in the industry preaching that they were going to move to WA and make weed $50/oz to the consumer. Never heard a local boy say that, and the gods know we've been tryin. I welcome the competition. It makes my stuff look better when the shelves are flooded with sticks and leaves.

 

[sprinkl]

Who cares about less perfectly manicured bud if the quality is the same and the price is right?
High grade weed up til now has to be perfectly trimmed because no one wants to pay €10+ per gram of leaf. If i can get that same bud for 1/10th the price i wouldnt mind doing some hand trimming before smoking. If at all needed, well cured sugar leaves dont hurt the taste and the potency is ridiculous anyway. Imo.
Christmas tree style would work imo, if not overfed or sprayed with chemicals weed is weed. Let the people do the drying and curing.. Or just tumble the hell out of it for some maroc style hashish.. No extra cost, no chems... Use the sifted buds to make cannabutter edibles.

 

[Sam_Skunkman]

Prices first, opinion second.

The WA consumer base won't take local outdoor. Outdoors is destined for pans and edibles. But the outdoor stuff that is going to be made is supposed to sell for minimum 850/lb (assuming they can actually sell it.)


Let's not forget the WA medical market is going to be open side by side with the WA legal market. I'm expecting prices to be pretty closely matched between the two, at least as far as cost to consumer goes.

I've heard several big names in the industry preaching that they were going to move to WA and make weed $50/oz to the consumer. Never heard a local boy say that, and the gods know we've been tryin. I welcome the competition. It makes my stuff look better when the shelves are flooded with sticks and leaves.

First of all all outdoor grown or greenhouse grown Cannabis is not all the same. If grown correctly, outdoor is as good as any grown indoors or in a greenhouse, and anyway you don't see people growing hundreds or thousands of late maturing Haze or Haze hybrids under lights. You can do that outdoors or in greenhouses.
To say no Washington consumer will not take outdoor is just not true, I can believe they want very high quality, but remember that Mexican Cannabis is still imported into Washington, so someone is buying it.
I have seen outdoors and greenhouse grown in a perfect spot for the maturity of that variety, hard to imagine much better quality, as I prefer organic soil grown big plants for taste and flavor and potency. Something that may be lacking with indoor under lights chemical grows, even if flushed.
The most expensive and maybe best Cannabis I ever saw was greenhouse grown not indoors under lights.
time will tell....
-SamS

 

[Reevage]

For a grower in the state of wa, indoor a++ is anywhere from $1900-$3000. Depending one where you go. Average sell price is $2000-2500

 

[SirStynkalot]

First of all all outdoor grown or greenhouse grown Cannabis is not all the same. If grown correctly, outdoor is as good as any grown indoors or in a greenhouse, and anyway you don't see people growing hundreds or thousands of late maturing Haze or Haze hybrids under lights. You can do that outdoors or in greenhouses.
To say no Washington consumer will not take outdoor is just not true, I can believe they want very high quality, but remember that Mexican Cannabis is still imported into Washington, so someone is buying it.
I have seen outdoors and greenhouse grown in a perfect spot for the maturity of that variety, hard to imagine much better quality, as I prefer organic soil grown big plants for taste and flavor and potency. Something that may be lacking with indoor under lights chemical grows, even if flushed.
The most expensive and maybe best Cannabis I ever saw was greenhouse grown not indoors under lights.
time will tell....
-SamS

That may hold true for other places, but WA is cold, gray, rainy, and has a short summer. The market was flooded a decade back with Yakima valley outdoor (best growing area outdoor in the state) but even that got bumped off the market by cali outdoor. And while cali outdoor might be good, it doesn't look nearly as good once it's traveled hundreds of miles to compete with local indoor at nearly the same price.

I'm not saying all outdoor or greenhouse is bad, just that you can't usually do it with the weather and light we have up here. Last fall was especially bad - the whole west coast of the state got a rain spell through most of august and part of september. We're really wet on one half of the state, really dry on the other, and in a way cold climate zone.

 

[Sam_Skunkman]

And in greenhouses? I have friends that use them way north of you.
Also why is Mexican commercial pot being busted every year in Washington state? Because people buy it, the Mexican cartels bring it there to sell like in most of America. Maybe it is not the top seller but it does sell, and the market is there for sure. If you and friends don't smoke Mexican commercial or even better Mexican, how do you have any idea how much is there, or how much is consumed in the state?
Maybe like the news said they are up there trading coke for BC bud and then bring the bud to the USA to sell?
Marijuana Osmosis guarantees that Mexican bud grown outdoors in Mexico is anywhere in the USA where the price of indoor USA grown Cannabis is higher then Mexican bud. It is the RC Cola of marijuana, not great but cheap and everywhere.
-SamS

 

[SirStynkalot]

And in greenhouses? I have friends that use them way north of you.
Also why is Mexican commercial pot being busted every year in Washington state? Because people buy it, the Mexican cartels bring it there to sell like in most of America. Maybe it is not the top seller but it does sell, and the market is there for sure. If you and friends don't smoke Mexican commercial or even better Mexican, how do you have any idea how much is there, or how much is consumed in the state?
Maybe like the news said they are up there trading coke for BC bud and then bring the bud to the USA to sell?
Marijuana Osmosis guarantees that Mexican bud grown outdoors in Mexico is anywhere in the USA where the price of indoor USA grown Cannabis is higher then Mexican bud. It is the RC Cola of marijuana, not great but cheap and everywhere.
-SamS

Good friend of mine pushed mexigrass for years. He did okay with it but after a certain point he had a hard time moving it. Too many local growers. He stopped selling it all together when the only people who'd buy it from him any more were high schoolers... and that was 5 years ago. I'm sure it still moves up here but I haven't met a soul recently who'll admit to buying it. I know ounce for ounce mexican's cheaper than local, but local at 3x the price of mexi also has 3x the THC content and is more pleasant to smoke. At least, that's what I understand about my community's perception.

Honestly I'll man up right here and say I know jack about greenhouses. I know they work all over but I don't know how they manage without a lot of supplemental lighting north of here.

Again, though, most of what I hear about for greenhouses around here are shoddy cold frames. It's not enough for our climate. The only 3 people I knew with cold frames this year all had tons of dabs from their premature (and MOLDY) buds. The results those things pull aren't different from outdoors because the conditions aren't different from outdoors. I'm sure it's a different story if it's a project with any sort of experience or financing behind it.

Coke does go across the border through WA. Mostly through Bellingham to Vancouver from what I understand. Some border jumpers east of the mountains but they put infared sensors all along the border so it's usually in cars at the highest traffic point. I lived in Bham for a year and there were a half-dozen massive border busts while I was there. That place is poppin.