12 to 15 for everything here... lots of peeps with a bunch of smoke....I wouldn't call any so far aaaaaaa tho but some good anyhow
Plummeting Marijuana Prices for Growers
- Thread starter gomer
- Start date
Yeah it's coming sooner than later. Pounds in my state were 6k 8 years ago. Those same pounds are floating between 3k- mid 4's but I a lot moving closer to 35 a P as of now. That's for your average indoor. Top grade can go for more but it all depends who you know and how good you are at politicking. Most indoor pounds will be under 4k in my area anytime now if it hasn't already happened. In my market on the east coast, I see prices going down to 32 for good hydro indoor. I don't think my prices would go below 3k within the next 3 years and when I plan my grows, I plan prices at 3k even though I get over 4 right now. Even at 3k in my market, you can easily make mid 6 figures a year. Seeing some of you in other markets with prices below 2k seem very stressful.
They can but they won't. They'll be going for the best looking product, not the best quality. Look at supermarket vegs and fruits. Looks nice, tastes like crap. Unripe overfed with chemicals and sprayed with toxins. If a labtest says 20% THC most smokers will buy it. They may aim at the part that wants real quality but most smokers don't know what real quality is. A lot of growers don't know. So it'll be a niche market which means no mass production which means the prices will still be high enough for a good grower to be able to compete. Especially black market, if you take in account the massive taxation on the product and the labour...
Genetic research will, like it is now, mostly be used to patent genetics and make strains more resistant to roundup.
the future of corporate weed
the future of corporate weed
imagine large corporate grow operations, entire crops processed into concentrates in laboratories, tested, packaged, consumerised and marketed to the public.
flower connoisseur's (like me
) will rely on mom & pop shops that can/will grow the obscure/unique/colorful, strain/variety they want that is both pesticide and contaminate free.
and what does that resemble? big beer and microbreweries?
both seem to coexist profitably.
mg
the future of corporate weed
imagine large corporate grow operations, entire crops processed into concentrates in laboratories, tested, packaged, consumerised and marketed to the public.
flower connoisseur's (like me
) will rely on mom & pop shops that can/will grow the obscure/unique/colorful, strain/variety they want that is both pesticide and contaminate free.and what does that resemble? big beer and microbreweries?
both seem to coexist profitably.
mg
SirStynkalot
Member
Well, you might be right about eventually seeing high quality from large ops, but for a few decades at least we'll see a lot of indoor cultivation still. It's too hard to prosecute and the current legislation matches black market prices rather than undercutting them. Heck, plenty of places still have moonshiners and alcohol's been in stores for decades.
As far as connoisseurs looking looking for top shelf stuff they can only get from mom and pop shops, wait until you see what these stores come up with. At least in my state they get to move in whatever clones they can find for moms before they start up, and then they will probably have a massive budget for strain and pheno hunting once they sort through those. Anything in seed form can show up on the shelves. And, just as a side note, AFAIK a large number of people in my state have been driving up and down the coast the last few months picking up as many west side clone only strains and cuts as they could find. GSC and KKSC cuts EVERYWHERE.
I'd wait and see what's coming before you get too stuck on the "the way we've always done it" bandwagon. For a medical grower, legalization is horrible. We're going to get cut out of the market quicklike in my state. For a smoker though nothing better can happen than this IMO.
paint4420
Member
You know this is a capatalistic society anyone at anytime is allowed to invest participate and grow in the up and comming market. The only diffrence between large corperations and and the small buissness owner is buying power. This doesnt mean that we as individual growers will not have the ability to compete. As posted before we have massive companys exporting beer and whiskey. Yet just down the street I have dry dock brewery and downslope distilling. They produce some of the tastiest libations ive had anywhere. And they are small buissness competeing in the same state as stranahans and coors. And they are doing very well for them selfs.
There is a ton of money to be made and the thing we have on the corporate agenda is a realworld insight into the market and were its going. WE set the trends not them. And we will have the abity to react first.
There is no reason that with some hard work, some lawyers, a good bit of luck and some careful planning that you cant grow your mom and pop grow into a profitable multi billion dollar empire in 40-50 years.
My question is who of us will be the next jack daniel or budweiser. Who of us will be the next dry dock or down slope?
Its up to us, not them. Who cares what the price of weed will be. We just need to make sure that we can stay profitable and in the black
There is a ton of money to be made and the thing we have on the corporate agenda is a realworld insight into the market and were its going. WE set the trends not them. And we will have the abity to react first.
There is no reason that with some hard work, some lawyers, a good bit of luck and some careful planning that you cant grow your mom and pop grow into a profitable multi billion dollar empire in 40-50 years.
My question is who of us will be the next jack daniel or budweiser. Who of us will be the next dry dock or down slope?
Its up to us, not them. Who cares what the price of weed will be. We just need to make sure that we can stay profitable and in the black
I saw this thread as active, so I clicked on it.
I read through a couple pages before I realized I was looking at posts from 2010 (Well, NOT in looking at the quoted prices)
Anyway, I jumped to this end page, and I've got to say, the most recent comments are pretty spot on in regards to this experiment going on in CO.
Extremely interesting points being made the past few days is all I'm sayin' with regards to the future of marijuana as an industry.
If I gotta nail one comment precisely then I'd have to give the +1,000+ to paint4420 in the comment directly above mine.
Sk
;-)_~~
I read through a couple pages before I realized I was looking at posts from 2010 (Well, NOT in looking at the quoted prices)
Anyway, I jumped to this end page, and I've got to say, the most recent comments are pretty spot on in regards to this experiment going on in CO.
Extremely interesting points being made the past few days is all I'm sayin' with regards to the future of marijuana as an industry.
If I gotta nail one comment precisely then I'd have to give the +1,000+ to paint4420 in the comment directly above mine.
Sk
;-)_~~
Featherfoot
Member
johnhinkleyjr has hit the nail on the head.
The big companies will be producing the best; the best strains grown to the optimum conditions.
"Niche"growers wont have better weed.
The only place I see for niche growers will be growing stuff that the big companies see as uneconomical, as in low demand for the product and high growing costs, such as landrace sativas that take 5 months to flower.
If you can produce these then you may have a market, although I see it as selling small amounts to connoissurs for their own use; you wont be able to move pounds at a time of this.
The only other hope for niche growers is that people may want to sample a wide range of strains.
I would say the big companies will each grow about 10 different strains, that leaves a lot of strains that have been bred over the years that will not be commercially available from the big companies.
If there are enough smokers who want to sometimes sample something a bit different then you may be able to build up a client base.
But again I think it will just be people buying a quarter or an oz for their own use; you wont be moving pounds of it.
And then there wont be room for many people in these markets.
The big companies will be producing the best; the best strains grown to the optimum conditions.
"Niche"growers wont have better weed.
The only place I see for niche growers will be growing stuff that the big companies see as uneconomical, as in low demand for the product and high growing costs, such as landrace sativas that take 5 months to flower.
If you can produce these then you may have a market, although I see it as selling small amounts to connoissurs for their own use; you wont be able to move pounds at a time of this.
The only other hope for niche growers is that people may want to sample a wide range of strains.
I would say the big companies will each grow about 10 different strains, that leaves a lot of strains that have been bred over the years that will not be commercially available from the big companies.
If there are enough smokers who want to sometimes sample something a bit different then you may be able to build up a client base.
But again I think it will just be people buying a quarter or an oz for their own use; you wont be moving pounds of it.
And then there wont be room for many people in these markets.
If it was not for the severe water drought out here and what will more than likely be a year with even more fires than last year, I would say the price would keep coming down this year.
I see the price for Full season OD stabilizing at $800-$1000 LB in the next three years, assuming we have water out here. I see indoor stabilizing at $1600-$1800 LB. There will continue to be larger warehouses and outdoor gardens, even though some people are shutting down to focus on making extracts. I believe that the rest of the growers left will pick up that slack.
I do not believe that growing connoisseur strains properly will be enough to justify a significantly higher ticket. You may be able to build a small network, but I think it will not be applicable to the industry as a whole.
You may be able to run your small garden for the rest of your life, you just won't be going anywhere and you'll be a slave to your room. A minimum of 25 KW is now necessary, and you'd really want 50-100 KW's.
I'm still sitting on a decent amount of outs from this last season. I believe the price will tick up if there is a severe drought and production severely dries up on the west coast. I know some people are buying them up to sit on them and sell when the price ticks up in a few months.
I see the price for Full season OD stabilizing at $800-$1000 LB in the next three years, assuming we have water out here. I see indoor stabilizing at $1600-$1800 LB. There will continue to be larger warehouses and outdoor gardens, even though some people are shutting down to focus on making extracts. I believe that the rest of the growers left will pick up that slack.
I do not believe that growing connoisseur strains properly will be enough to justify a significantly higher ticket. You may be able to build a small network, but I think it will not be applicable to the industry as a whole.
You may be able to run your small garden for the rest of your life, you just won't be going anywhere and you'll be a slave to your room. A minimum of 25 KW is now necessary, and you'd really want 50-100 KW's.
I'm still sitting on a decent amount of outs from this last season. I believe the price will tick up if there is a severe drought and production severely dries up on the west coast. I know some people are buying them up to sit on them and sell when the price ticks up in a few months.
Featherfoot
Member
Not really worth growing at those prices; after paying for the electricity and other stuff, spending the time trimming it well, and taking into account the risk from getting busted, doesn't seem like a good return.
If your garden is large enough then you will make enough to live on but if you are running say three lights then better get a day job.
paint4420
Member
Somehow people are profitable producing tobacco for 8 dollars a pound.... and others producing saffron at 1500 a pound but that takes an acre of land for a pound of saffron plus a crap ton of hand labor
And people complain about 1500!? To produce a pound of weed indoors were your overhead and production cost cant be anywear near $500?
Really!?
If people cant be profitable selling this stuff legally/illegally then something has gone horribly wrong with their grow or my thought process
And people complain about 1500!? To produce a pound of weed indoors were your overhead and production cost cant be anywear near $500?
Really!?
If people cant be profitable selling this stuff legally/illegally then something has gone horribly wrong with their grow or my thought process
It can easily cost you $500 per pound indoors. It all depends on your personal situation and risk. You have to pay to house your plants. You also need a VEG room. It cost money to have these rooms. You also have to pay for electric in these rooms and prices vary all over the country. Many more things to take into account like harvesting costs. 4,000 - 8,000 watt flowering grow could cost someone around $500 per pound to produce. There are also losses within a time period that also has to be taken into account. The more lights that you have, you can take down your expenses so it can cost less but there are lots of variables. Not talking about hobby growers in the closet.
Small time
Member
I see this is where the growers like mine will be. I'm good with that.
from my rough estimates, not just including power and grow expenses but also mortgage/rent, labor, and small things like travel costs, home depot....i estimate that it costs about 3-400 to grow an outdoor LB and about 800-900 to grow an indoor LB. just in power alone it costs about 300 in power per light per cycle, not including veg time. this is for first cycle using fresh everything, for outdoor costs on 2nd and 3rd year can be decreased by re-using soil and same for indoor w/equipment and lights. labor is the 2nd biggest cost behind power if you are paying to have it harvested and hand trim. 200 to trim and another 50-100 for the hourly harvest wage. thats using around a 1500 per month mortgage for the grow spot itself which is actually very cheap, i know some guys paying 3-5k a month.
I'm sure some people can do it cheaper and others more expensive, just what I've generally seen from most farms that pay for hand trim, rent and power. machine trimmers, guerrilla and power stealers not included.
I'm sure some people can do it cheaper and others more expensive, just what I've generally seen from most farms that pay for hand trim, rent and power. machine trimmers, guerrilla and power stealers not included.
J
johnhinkleyjr
I see the price for Full season OD stabilizing at $800-$1000 LB in the next three years, assuming we have water out here. I see indoor stabilizing at $1600-$1800 LB.
sorry but i think you are dreaming. 800-1000 and 1600-1800 is already happening in the commercial and rural areas of the w.c..this is Before we have even seen the first year of everybody being allowed to grow in colo in their closet plus the inevitable siphoning effect that the big ones will have. wait til the supply side volume has caught up and all of a sudden people are just more comfortable with giant grows in general, legal or not. not to mention its gonna come down like a house of cards within a couple years. stabalize at 800? maybe for the stores but small growers are going to get squeezed down to a price thats similar to making a normal hourly wage and actually doing the work themselves,but with way more financial risk when crops fail. dang that sounds almost as hard as actual farming who in their right mind would want to do that? large scale farmers. i mean real farmers. its over folks.
sorry but i think you are dreaming. 800-1000 and 1600-1800 is already happening in the commercial and rural areas of the w.c..this is Before we have even seen the first year of everybody being allowed to grow in colo in their closet plus the inevitable siphoning effect that the big ones will have. wait til the supply side volume has caught up and all of a sudden people are just more comfortable with giant grows in general, legal or not. not to mention its gonna come down like a house of cards within a couple years. stabalize at 800? maybe for the stores but small growers are going to get squeezed down to a price thats similar to making a normal hourly wage and actually doing the work themselves,but with way more financial risk when crops fail. dang that sounds almost as hard as actual farming who in their right mind would want to do that? large scale farmers. i mean real farmers. its over folks.
^ what i've been predicting is happening. as far as "it's over folks" no, imo. it's just getting more severe.
"the game is still the game; it's just getting more severe" the wire
you need to manage distribution or you gotta limp down to the dispenseries with a greased up "butt pussy" hoping for a fair deal.
right. you need to manage your brand reputation and recognition.
you need to stay safe until it goes more legal.
specializing in local markets with outdoor seeds ( flowering window, hardiness, etc. for your particular od grow environment), cuts and product that substantiates your claims will probably be easy money for the alpha grower/breeders. micro-budderies.
very exciting times ahead per my view. you just gotta have a lot of game to survive and thrive.
Jesus christ, thats gotta be around 30-40¢/kWh?
paint4420
Member
Snype I could easly see were u get 500 a lb costs. But to be fair thats not the issue. The issue is how do we figure out how to stay within regulations and keep costs down and keep brining them down. Through the use of natural lighting recycled soils and dirt cheap organic amendments. A few people have said it before. The free ride is over time to turn it into a real job. We dont need to grow in a space shuttle anymore if its legal across the board.
as long as there are places where cannabis can not be consumed legally there will be good numbers for Black Market growers...(Strap ya nuts ,,hit da road ,bring it back, stash the pro's) simple .I grew up in a family of growers it's been the same way and won't change till it's all the way legal. And you have to think you're going to have to be 21 and older to consume it that leaves all the highschool stoners left to consume the blackmarket goods .
