Place for Dummies to Hang

[Jbonez]

I figured why not start a thread for the intellects, with an ever evolving subject matter that can never be construed as "off-topic".. Anything tech, philosophy, science, astrology, maths, you name it, anything really, we are gonna mindfuck every little detail into submission..

So, to all the other stupid guys out there, lets get a mental clusterfuck going, anything goes, so long as it doesnt break forum policy.

Pull out all the stops in exhibiting our respect for a particular vernacular, one the lay would find confusing.. Im such a dick.. Should help to keep things civil.

First topic?

 

[rasputin]

Changed my mind. To kinda tie in with the other thread, how about statism for a first topic? For or against, limits of, federal/state dynamic, et al. Or not.

I'm down for whatever. This should be good, Jbonez.

 

[SpasticGramps]

An NT circle jerk?

Arousing.

I'm sideways on some half decent kief and Crown R and coke ATM. I haven't looked at grow pics in over two years on this site cause well...... long story.

Been checking out the killer vert grow tonight and enjoying some slightly existential conversation.

It's time to start growing again. If you know my story you know what I mean.

The attic (part deux) shall be revived. Only this time (keeping with KISS) more improvements and less money spent. Not like the foundation isn't already there.

Glad I can go to work tomorrow where they don't care if I'm half tossed. Gotta luv the oilfield. Too bad I want to be a farmer.

Mad respect to the growers and this site.

First topic?............

Cognitive Dissonance.

 

[unspoken]

That's a good one, I was thinking maybe what's going in Israel.
Or,
US to become biggest oil producer by 2020, nearly self-sufficient by 2035. What are the implications?

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2012/11/20121113134836285404.html

 

[SpasticGramps]

I like the oil one. Give me a sec to opion. This has been a hot topic in my circle as of late.

 

[HOPS5K]

Oil will be good and make a lot of people very wealthy. Not sure what else will happen after that...mo money mo mo problems.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Start out with some poop from a business plan that has been recently put together for an operating company (Exploration and Production Company (an E&P) (ie Oil Drilling Company).....author unknown.

Industry Definition

Supply and Demand Trends:

There are two major competing views within the oil and gas industry that are used to forecast prices and supply into the future. One is the geological view whose origins trace back to the work of M. King Hubbert (1956) who correctly predicted US oil production would peak in 1970. Proponents of this view conclude that peak global conventional oil production may occur before 2020 and will have an inexorable decline after. The other widely accepted theory is the economic/technological view wherein high oil prices stimulate technology creating a decisive impact on production levels.

The conclusion reached by nearly all schools of thought is oil prices will continue to rise into the future as either global supply inexorably declines or expensive technology must be employed to extract the harder to reach large reserves. The May 2012 IMF Working Paper “The Future of Oil: Geology vs Technology” develops a price model that is the first to take into account both widely held theories and reaches the conclusion that crude oil prices will likely permanently double in the next decade.

I suggest reading the IMF working paper. I don't agree with all the conclusions, but there are many charts and I mean many that support the overall conclusion of rising oil prices and it's quite convincing.

The IEA is basing this on shale plays in the US. We call it "tight oil". Or unconventional reserves because they cannot be open hole produced (like conventional sands and limestones). They must be fracked to see returns. Fracking and horizontal drilling is expensive to do thus the costs of BOE must remain high or it doesn't work. Eagleford shale wells average $7mil a pop and that's making fast hole with no hangups and a good frack job. You need above ~80/Bbl and a fortress balance sheet to be economically viable at all. And that's humping it.

Essentially we could possibly become the world's largest producer, but everyone is going to have to pay out the ass for it. Both economically and environmentally.

I'm in the oilfield, but I like waterfront property more because it has.......water. Fracking wastes the fuck out of water and to supply the world's energy supply with the amount of water it would take is no bueno IMO. Too expensive in monetary and ecological terms.

 

[Space Ghost]

is the inclusion of the ''s'' in the word math(s) a subtle reference to 'look around you'?

 

[unspoken]

Start out with some poop from a business plan that has been recently put together for an operating company (Exploration and Production Company (ie Oil Drilling Company).....author unknown.

I suggest reading the IMF working paper. I don't agree with all the conclusions, but there are many charts and I mean many that support the overall conclusion of rising oil prices and it's quite convincing.

The IEA is basing this on shale plays in the US. We call it "tight oil". Or unconventional reserves because it cannot be open hole produced. It must be fracked to see returns. Fracking and horizontal drilling is expensive to do thus the costs of BOE must remain high or it doesn't work.

Essentially we could possibly become the world's largest producer, but everyone is going to have to pay out the ass for it. Both economically and environmentally.

I'm in the oilfield, but I like waterfront property more because it has.......water. Fracking wastes the fuck out of water and to supply the world's energy supply with the amount of water it would take is no bueno IMO. Too expensive in monetary and ecological terms.

I am 100% with you on the water thing. The oil of the (not so distant) future. When I talk to most people about water they are usually quick to point out desalination as our savior to make water a non issue. Desal is not the way(not with current technology anyway). The only way to ensure water safety is to protect it from contamination at almost any cost, and not use more water from our aquifers than what can be recharged. That's probably not happening. As screwed up as I think it is that I am about to say this, and can legally advocate this as a way to make money(cognitive dissonance)...buy water now. Buy all of the water. Not only waterfront property, but waterbottom as well. Is it over an aquifer? That seems to be what T Boone Pickens is up to lately to offset his wind energy toys in the future. I guess I actually agree with you about everything you just said. My initial thought when hearing this was cost to the environment and marginal cost of production are too high. I don't know much about producing shale oil or more traditional oil in the middle east, but I figured it would be much like water here. You pay out the ass for the initial infrastructure, but then it's basically free as you produce more. This seems like it would be very different from fracking. I would assume both of those things would apply to the tar sands also? I know China has been pushing Canada to move forward on that.

 

[rasputin]

I don't buy the whole 'new golden age' of N. American oil. I think the projection is hyperbolic and ultimately counterproductive to the long term energy interests of N. America and even the rest of the world, really. It fails to take into account a variety of current and developing issues that will/would/could make the process more difficult than it's worth.

Tough oil, tight oil, extreme energy... whatever you wanna call it... that we're discussing our energy needs in these terms points to the direction things are going. They're trending downward. The low lying fruit is gone and to get the rest is going to cost a lot, both in money and natural resources, and come with more risk.

Acknowledging that is the first step in addressing the issue but some, obviously those with vested interests, can deny it while at the same time acknowledge it by supporting new acquisition models that require more intensive and sophisticated tools and extraction methods, not to mention processing as you can't turn tar sands into gasoline quite as easily as you can with some sweet Saud crude.

There's some cognitive dissonance for ya, Gramps.

If you have to go from digging a hole in Texas to building a giant steel rig out in the ocean to get the same stuff isn't it perhaps time to look for some other stuff? And I mean look in a meaningful way and not just some bullshit "green" remedy like we're going to save the world by having a carbon tax and putting smart meters on peoples homes.

 

[SpasticGramps]

I don't know much about producing shale oil or more traditional oil in the middle east, but I figured it would be much like water here.

Conventional Reserves is what we've been running off for 100 years. These are sand and limestone formations. They are very porous. Basically you poke a hole in them and they produce product because of their porosity. You can "open hole produce".

When you poke a hole in shale it won't do shit. Nothing comes out. It's not porous. The oil and gas is locked into a very "tight" formation. That's why you have to blow it up with water and chemicals. You "frack" it to release the hydrocarbons.

When fracking operators will use whatever water is available, but it has to be salt water because fresh water causes shale to swell which will stick your pipe while drilling or if you make it that far swell the hole shut when you frack.

So companies are taking fresh water from aquifers used to grow crops and such. Putting salt and chemicals into it and fracking formations.

A possible solution to this is to get water from the ocean which is already salinated and frack, but the you are talking massive transportation costs because of the amount of water needed to frack wells. Not so much for South Texas plays but as you move inland the costs would be massive. Which means massive prices at the pump.

Shale oil is a whole new world from conventional reserves. And oil shale (tar sands and such, very different from shale oil) requires very high oil prices to be economically viable.

China is pumping anyone then can to give them some black stuff to keep up their uber Keynesian dream going. You think we are bad? hehe They build entire cities that no one lives in. Because according to Neo-Keynesian (and that's what all this really is, Keynes is rolling over in his grave right now) any economic activity is "good " economic activity. Be it WAR or building empty cities.

 

[unspoken]

Sorry man it's late. "I don't know much about producing shale oil or more traditional oil in the middle east, but I figured it would be much like water here." I meant saudi crude would be like water here, not shale. I sort of understand the fracking process. I live in an area where a lot of it happens.

Also yes, thank you for not making me say the "he is rolling in his grave" thing.

 

[unspoken]

is the inclusion of the ''s'' in the word math(s) a subtle reference to 'look around you'?

Every time I read the word maths, everything after that gets read in a British accent in my head for some reason.

 

[iampolluted]

tagged for this shit lol.

 

[SpasticGramps]

God I feel like shit lol.



Another day in the patch.

 

[SeaMaiden]

An NT circle jerk?

Arousing.

I'm sideways on some half decent kief and Crown R and coke ATM. I haven't looked at grow pics in over two years on this site cause well...... long story.

Been checking out the killer vert grow tonight and enjoying some slightly existential conversation.

It's time to start growing again. If you know my story you know what I mean.

The attic (part deux) shall be revived. Only this time (keeping with KISS) more improvements and less money spent. Not like the foundation isn't already there.

Glad I can go to work tomorrow where they don't care if I'm half tossed. Gotta luv the oilfield. Too bad I want to be a farmer.

Mad respect to the growers and this site.

First topic?............

Cognitive Dissonance.

It ain't like Cinerella's glass slipper, is it?

I don't know your story, but hope your next grow goes well.

A good current example of cognitive dissonance is saying you want to secede from the union when you've been part and parcel of making the union what it is today; i.e. consistently putting incumbents back into their offices. As though secession will change the behaviors that led us to this place. Cognitive dissonance is creating Homeland Security because the other agencies were doin' it wrong. How's making a new agency going to make things right?

Oops. That's kinda political. I apologize, it's kinda my bag.

To take fresh water and make it saline just to get to the oil in the shale is... it's immoral, and just incredibly short-sighted.

 

[SpasticGramps]

It ain't like Cinerella's glass slipper, is it?

I don't know your story, but hope your next grow goes well.

A good current example of cognitive dissonance is saying you want to secede from the union when you've been part and parcel of making the union what it is today; i.e. consistently putting incumbents back into their offices. As though secession will change the behaviors that led us to this place. Cognitive dissonance is creating Homeland Security because the other agencies were doin' it wrong. How's making a new agency going to make things right?

Oops. That's kinda political. I apologize, it's kinda my bag.

To take fresh water and make it saline just to get to the oil in the shale is... it's immoral, and just incredibly short-sighted.

Not sure you quite get what cognitive dissonance is from your first example. My desire to secede would be an example of one working through their dissonance. Second example definitely applies to the flag waving population at large and is a good example of cognitive dissonance.

Politics is my bag too, but lets not do that here.

Everything this country does is short sighted. We mortgaged our future generations' well being after 2008 for a few more years of prolonging the inevitable collapse of the house of cards. We collectively cannibalize our children so we can buy iPad Mini's for a few more years. Not national admirable traits IMO.

We can't see past our own noises.

 

[SeaMaiden]

Perhaps the first example wasn't well worded. By "you" I was speaking in the general terms, plural "you," not you personally. I still feel, however, that it's an apt example because I'm reading in the news of the sheer numbers of people who are signing these petitions, and I find myself wondering, "Do you vote, all you people who are signing these? And if so, how do you vote? Do you keep incumbents in office? Do you vote according to the facts, or according to what you've seen on television (Proposition 37, anyone?)?" (Remember, I'm in California where pretty much no one ever reads the ballot anymore, all they do is watch tv.)

You see, it doesn't make sense to me that people who either vote in that manner or don't participate at all now want to take this kind of drastic step. I am all for states rights, up to a point (women's reproductive rights is one of those points for me), but I also feel that divided we *will* fall. We are, as a nation, highly and extremely polarized at this juncture, and I don't feel it will serve us well at all. I feel that part of that polarization is a general inability by the populous to simply take responsibility for the government we've got.

 

[SpasticGramps]

but I also feel that divided we *will* fall.

This country was born divided. In division freedom was born.

Not everyone wanted to revolt against England, thus the loyalist.

Sometimes you just have to grab the bull by the horns and fuck compromising principles with politically corrupt factions.

 

[Jbonez]

I feel that part of that polarization is a general inability by the populous to simply take responsibility for the government we've got.

Then we fall in line with the old mindset of dealing with it, for example, if we the people, say, force money out of the pockets of congressmen as they are paid to have a certain bias, then OK I can see what you are saying by take responsiblity, they are all corrupted by money to have a particular view that supports a very specific industry. These dickheads have influence over our lives.. Take the money and greed from these snarling fat pigs running around making rules...

There would be a good start.