Colorado marijuana prices see huge drop, drug cartels reeling

[UptownChill]

I can see some $50 ounces coming this fall to CO. Ona semi-regular basis. But, this is all mere speculation. We will just have to see what happens.

"Will Recreational Marijuana Prices Plummet In Colorado Next Year?
Posted by Johnny Green at 4:43 PM on November 2, 2014


I have always maintained that if the blackmarket is going to be put out of business in Colorado and Washington, prices would have to drop significantly from what they are right now. Sure, there are lots of people out there that are willing to pay $60-$85 an eighth, but true veterans (the consumers that make up a bulk of the market) will not pay those prices forever, if at all. Fortunately, more and more growers are getting their operations up and running and will soon be flooding the market with fresh supply. That, combined with increasing competition from new shops opening up, should affect prices quite a bit in Colorado and Washington.

At least one store owner agrees. Per Reason:

The advantages of a medical card should wane as supply rises and recreational prices fall. Kayvan Khalatbari, co-owner of Denver Relief, a medical dispensary that started serving recreational consumers in July, says after-tax prices in that market average $50 to $60 per eighth. He expects those prices to plummet by next year, however, as growers ramp up production and new suppliers enter the market. As of October 1, dispensaries no longer have to grow 70 percent of their inventory, and businesses dedicated to cultivation will be allowed.

“I would not be surprised, given the flood that’s going to happen, if we see $10 and $15 eighths by early next year,” Khalatbari says. “I would believe that. I could see ounces being sold for $50. I truly see that happening, because there is going to be so much competition [and] people are becoming so efficient in their production. They’re automating much more. We’re seeing best practices settle in. There’s less risk in operating because people are operating at a higher level. I think we’re going to become a very efficient industry very quickly. We’re going to see competition, and we’re going to see prices hit rock bottom early next year.” At that point, he predicts, the black market will dwindle away.

If prices for eighths truly fall to the $10-15 range, it would definitely eliminate the blackmarket in surrounding areas. No gang, cartel, or dealer can compete at those prices, especially since people would prefer to shop from a large selection, something that stores offer but the blackmarket generally doesn’t. Even at $140 an ounce, which is the average predicted price in Oregon if Measure 91 passes, I don’t see the blackmarket sticking around."

http://www.theweedblog.com/will-recreational-marijuana-prices-plummet-in-colorado-next-year/

 

[idiit]

there will be +'s and -'s to deregulation.

one strong + will be the potential elimination of middlemen. I can't get my product to the customer directly. for security reasons I must go thru already established black market routes. the dealers buy the cheapest that they can sell for the most$.

if I could go direct to the customer I could easily get 2x what i'm getting now.

 

[UptownChill]

.

.

there will be +'s and -'s to deregulation.

one strong + will be the potential elimination of middlemen. I can't get my product to the customer directly. for security reasons I must go thru already established black market routes. the dealers buy the cheapest that they can sell for the most$.

if I could go direct to the customer I could easily get 2x what i'm getting now.

Yeah, as long as there is a black market, those who are willing to take the risk will make serious premium. I'm watching the legal market. I also feel that if there is an over abundance of legal weed in CO after harvest time. Some of that will be exported to non-legal states. That's why several states are suing CO right now. To recoup expenses from 5-0 having to police it in their own states. TO BE HONEST. I'm all about just legalize it everywhere and stop all this nonsense. I mean, after all those years of prohibition MJ is still as prolific and maybe even more so than ever. So, what's the point? Well....... Someone is profiting from the black market.

 

[aridbud]

Really, cost me $100 just to have a pound trimmed.

Are you doing 1000's of plants to be in rec/MMJ shops in CO?

Even with drum type trimmers, it's still costly.

From Atlantic.com 2 years ago 8/2013

That means Colorado’s recreational pot retail fees dwarf those being considered in Washington state, where "licenses to grow, process and sell marijuana would each cost $1,000 per year" plus a $250 application fee. The retail pot fees are also substantially larger than those required of medical marijuana applicants, who currently pay a one-time $2,000 application fee and an annual $3,000 licensing fee. On the other hand,Coloradans can already grow up to three of their own plants and "non-commercially" exchange up to one ounce.
Considering that the Amendment 64 campaign for legal pot in Colorado was based on "regulating marijuana like alcohol," it’s somewhat ironic that the fees for recreational marijuana businesses will be larger than those for liquor stores, who pay a state application fee of $1,025, a city application fee of $1,000, and combined annual licensing fees of less than $500."

Times (x) that for each store, many entrepreneurs owning several "outlets"....ca-CHING!

Would be nice for that $50 figure touted, but highly unlikely.

Too, a good portion of sales are from tourists (minimum 7 gr. per purchase) as we in CO, can grow our own.

 

[BrainSellz]

There will always be a market for "boutique('y)" nuggets that will fetch top dollar. Its kinda like Pillsbury or "homemade from scratch".

Pillsbury standing for the huge "automated" grows with minimal human interaction (no shortage of these) vs.

The "homemade from scratch" which would be the herb that was grown with lov/human interaction.

Plants grown with lots of human interaction posses something that "automated" plants do not.
it's the lov we give to the plants that comes through in the smoke.

 

[stoned-trout]

^^^^^^^^ I agree...yeehaw.. 10 dollar 1/8 s sounds good .. some people are going to go out of business and like tobacco the money will be in the taxes....

 

[sprinkl]

I kinda agree with you in a way. But, just growing a plant or two for myself indoors, I did the math. Just 2 plants, fast finishers from high quality strains and high potency genes from a high quality well respected breeder, costs anywhere from a dime to .50 on the highest side per gram. Since this is personal, I did not calculate the 30 minutes labor a week to maintain the plants or the couple of hours it takes to trim several ounces chilling on a Friday night. Since, a personal farmer will probably be sitting on the couch watching tv while doing these things. I only counted consumables; electric, water, nutrients and whatever else will be used and gone. Consider, I do Hempy bucket, 3 or 5 gallon with perlite and vermiculite and I use it over and over so many times indefinitely until it is thrown into some potting soil for a house plant and I have to replace it. I also use Lucas formula, Maxibloom, Cal Mag and PH up. And a package of those might last for years when you grow on a small scale. Tap water costs are also negligible. Utilities are your highest costs and even that is negligible on a small scale.

Point is, I know this has little to compare with commercial growing, but, from a users perspective, why are you going to pay a premium for top shelf when you can grow the same high quality at home for dimes a gram? Do the math bro. You will be shocked. And it's so easy too? $50 a pound seems a little extreme, but on an outdoor farmers scale I am sure that is easily doable and profitable.

That is from a hobbyist's point of view, I reasoned like that too.

It's basically the same as saying "why pay money for letting someone build your website if you can do it yourself" - answer: because most people are not interested to learn it and don't want to put their time in it.
If you like growing plants you would be silly not to grow pot yourself, if you don't it's easier to buy it... Talking indoor topshelf offcourse, everyone can grow lower quality outdoors without much effort. Though I'm more than content with my "low potency" outdoor these days, organic and sun grown - don't see why I would put the time in indoor growing again...

 

[UptownChill]

Aww hell no.

Aww hell no.

That is from a hobbyist's point of view, I reasoned like that too.

It's basically the same as saying "why pay money for letting someone build your website if you can do it yourself" - answer: because most people are not interested to learn it and don't want to put their time in it.
If you like growing plants you would be silly not to grow pot yourself, if you don't it's easier to buy it... Talking indoor topshelf offcourse, everyone can grow lower quality outdoors without much effort. Though I'm more than content with my "low potency" outdoor these days, organic and sun grown - don't see why I would put the time in indoor growing again...

Comparing growing to building a website are apples and oranges. It takes real effort first of all to understand how to create a website and use the code, versus mixing up some nutes and watering a plant a few times a week. If I have a serious need for a professional website, hands down I will gladly pay someone to either build it for me, or buy a template and patch in what I need.

Kinda the same but different with growing veggies. Yes I like to garden, but what I can get at the grocery store or farmers market is so cheap I don't need to so I let the guys who have chosen and love that career to do it for me. It's just cheap.

At $200-$300 an O for weed. I will just grow my own thanks. I'll spend more time mowing grass in a week than I'll spend growing a couple of plants for a few Os that will cost a couple of bucks tops.

Yeah, cutting grass would be a better example versus growing your own. Because just about anyone can drive or push a mower. Like almost anyone can grow a little top shelf weed.

Yeah bro you need to sit down and develop a website. The learning alone will take hours and days. Totally different.

 

[MJPassion]

I have calculated the cost to grow hand trimmed indoor, and moving it at $3000 a pound is just about right for achieving the same sustainability as most commodities ( 1/3 labor, 1/3 materials, 1/3 profit).

This is the most foolish statement I've seen yet, in this thread!
Your math is completely wack!
who on this earth spends a grand growing a single pound of weed?
Your labor is your profit! Profit is in no way a charge to be added later.

 

[MJPassion]

Really, cost me $100 just to have a pound trimmed.

Can anyone point out a real reason MJ should cost $3000 a pound? In a legal area.

Taxes (state/municipal), hefty licensing fees, security, workers, area to grow, nutrients, grow medium...it all adds up.

it does add up...
But...
When moving hundreds to potentially thousands of pounds "expenses" are dwarfed by profit. Especially when one considers that production costs are smaller, pound for pound, when grown in large scale operations.

There is not one single nursery that would be in business if it really cost as much as some of you say it would to grow a plant.

Only thing I see is a bunch of ding dongs attempting to justify their need to make huge profits at the expense of their neighbors.

 

[MJPassion]

there will be +'s and -'s to deregulation.

one strong + will be the potential elimination of middlemen. I can't get my product to the customer directly. for security reasons I must go thru already established black market routes. the dealers buy the cheapest that they can sell for the most$.

if I could go direct to the customer I could easily get 2x what i'm getting now.

or you could cut the consumers price in half!

Why perpetuate greed?

 

[Sam_Skunkman]

x

 

[BrainSellz]

Unless you consider your time "free" it costs a lot more to produce a pound. Time is money. When you add the hours you spend in your garden and times that by what you feel your worth is. Say (20-25) bucks an hour, the numbers are much different.

 

[Sam_Skunkman]

x

 

[Betterhaff]

Think of what would happen to the price if acres were grown in the Central Valley. Expenses may be high right now because of the water situation but think about what the end results would be if grown in an agricultural model.

 

[BrainSellz]

Unless it is a real lot then that time is not a big thing.
-SamS

All depends on how much time you spend in there working. Checking for bugs, foliar feeding, watering, pruning, etc etc. We all spend different amounts of time doing different things. At the end of 12-16 weeks at least 30-40 hours is involved to grow at least 1 pound. It becomes even more time consuming when you start gardening more than 1.

40x20 (or25) and those numbers are much different.

I'm not talking on acreage. 1-10 pound grows.

 

[dddaver]

It seems those with the dollar signs in their eyes are forgetting it is just a plant. Nothing more. It has been bred for centuries to be naturally occurring and grows like weeds everywhere.....in fact that is exactly what it is. It should and does grow free and wild now. These growers who want to still make huge profits are like trying to domesticate a wild animal here. It ain't gonna happen. The days of wild profiteering are gone, thank God.

 

[FunkBomb]

The ability for lots of producers to grow outdoors is why we are seeing economies of scale being reached. You can produce decent weight indoors under lights, but the costs are just insane compared to a simple greenhouse made out of plastic sheeting, rebar, and concrete blocks.

As for the niche market it will always exist. Look at the difference in price between mass agriculture grown food items and certified organic non-gmo. There will be people out there that want the higher quality, and with that comes higher price.

Not to mention the inflationary nature of fiat currency. And the fact that the central banks are printing money like crazy. As more money is printed into existence, the value of each monetary unit goes down.

Lots of factors to consider for sure.

-Funk

 

[SooperSmurph]

so , your saying it s costing you or your folk , $2000 a pound to grow your pot ,,
wtf i say ,,,
you really have to be kidding me ,,
i can produce that for a little less ,, ( less than $100 a pound)
do you think your business is sustainable ?? ..

Do you think the average restaurant is sustainable? Those that don't skimp on ingredients or cheat their employees out of a fair wage operate on this very basic, and time tested formula.

1/3 staff costs, 1/3 food costs, 1/3 gross profit, if you want to open a McDonalds, your food and staff costs will be much lower, and your profit will be much higher, but i'm never smoking McDonalds weed.

I love the farmer type growers who think everything just magically appears out of the dirt for free.

 

[Baked Alaskan]

Maybe the product used for concentrates and edibles could be grown in a field and maybe the smoking flowers could be grown in climate controlled greenhouses on a more individual plant style.