Bitcoin Talk

[Kankakee]

Yes. Watch the 10Y US bond -

The central banks have driven down interest rates bigly after 2008 crisis / quantitative easing. They looked into abyss of debt deflation and witnessed death. Unlike iceland who let institutions and banks crumble and let dry powder come in, buy up assets from bankruptcy they saved the status quo / debt holders big and small by driving down interest payments with q.e.....

The flood of money entered markets companies started borrowing at ultra low rates ( explosion of more debt ) and doing share buybacks ( financial alchemy ).

Me, you most everyone never witnessed recovery at work. Until last quarter no real growth, always a hard slog up and down at work as real world organic growth never match the markets recovery and bubble expansion.

 

[Kankakee]

Before crash in 2008 equity markets became bubble. So 16,000 ( IMO ) was smoke and mirrors and now over 24,000 ??? Lol'

Japans central banks bought ETF directly onto balance sheet. Over a year ago China did the same as market crashed. ( more alchemy / moral hazard ) as everyone assumed every little dip or crisis could be solved and backstopped by central banks. So managers kept buying knowing central banks would bail out system. ie - currency devaluation

 

[Kankakee]

On black monday / 1987 the market crashed 22% in one day. You could not sell at any price / no bids or liquidity.

Now with ETF and passive investing everyone globally on one side of boat. ( shorting volatility )
machine, volt targets, exchange traded funds, etc people think they are diversified but are not.

Before black monday markets got choppy. vol spiked and climbed into that day.

With everyone in the same trade and central banks pulling back liquidity who will buy ?

And what would cause central banks to not save system again with more rate cuts and liquidity ??? INFLATION !!!!!! gas / oil spiking over $100, food spiking just as 401K's obliterated and companies in panic mode, think for yourself how spiking inflation would drive cost and what would follow ?

Watch that 10Y bond i spoke about. Imagine equities dropping and central banks jacking up interest rates quickly not these .25 baby steps. Every other currency built upon USDollars.

How would people handle say 8% or 10% interest payments ? Not so much .... Everyone has been living with falling rates since the mid 90's. Every crisis fixed with easy money what if the inflation monster is just entering the global stage .... I think you could see a 40% plus drop in one day. This would toss the world into chaos and war is already top of mind with unrest on every continent already. Commodities must be purchased with USD, global trade via letters of credit settled in USD. Countries are intertwined / currencies built upon usdollar hegemony.

No utopia, no hiding place from this .....

 

[GMT]

On that gloomy thought, anyone think binance will be back? 12hour update started 14 hours ago with no warning.

 

[exploziv]

Do you guys think this is a good time to invest in an ico that's based on mining coins?

 

[Kankakee]

2009-2018 -/ $3.8 Trillion in stock buybacks reducing liquidity, using leverage 40% earning per share growth ( fake ) / translates into 30% plus of equity gains driven by this false illusion.

sit back and think. if earnings measured without this construct, we'd already be showing recession warning sign's. ie: no global growth. fools gold. everyone spending money taking on debt as if everyday life normal and business cycle expanding.

everyone in debt will be wiped out like depression in 20's into 30's. if your in debt, almost 98% are in this camp forward think abilities to service this debt as rates explode upward.

how long can people or business pay off liabilities and debt month over month without funding ? how deep are savings accounts / nest egg. whats the true value of materialism ?

do you NEED a mortgage ? do you NEED new cars ? or is this driven by false construct of peer review and pressure. whats needed ? vs what is affordable / balance sheet.

 

[Kankakee]

On that gloomy thought, anyone think binance will be back? 12hour update started 14 hours ago with no warning.

sorry.

the truth / markets are gloomy indeed. the matrix is all around us. debt servitude. taking from the future for luxury today. central banks have done this on hyper-drive. (2007-2018)

never forget, the ph'd's at the central banks / bank of international settlements ( the central bankers bank ) will see this long before joe-six / inflation coming .....

the market dropping 1,000 +, intra-day swings of 400-500 points far from normal. this is the dead body of 2008's dead corpse kept alive from quantitative can-kick ripping out i.v, running around room in zombie state before meltdown .... the warning sign's abound. 0% interest on new car, mortgage hanky panky all warning sign's. if everything a o.k why the free money incentives. debt / credit is not money it's a noose around neck forcing one into debt prison, again, forward earning now for better assumed living. look at colleges all that debt and no jobs / robotics AI taking jobs into the teeth of this debt ponzi everyone hoping it will turn some day but what if interest rates go bonkers upwards.

so it's not some tin foil idea, the truth is all around us. history repeats. look at 80's and early 90's regarding inflation and how high interest rates / payments can go then decide if debt is safe.

 

[EasyGoing]

Kankakee, that is the whole reason for Crypto. That is why Satoshi Nakamoto invented bitcoin. Money cycles rise and fall about every 7-10 years. Crypto will help equalize the falls. Did you notice crypto was falling, then as soon as the stock market took that big hit, it turned around. Everybody is going to pull fiat from markets, and invest in crypto, IMO. This will be a slow movement, over the next 10 years. However Crypto will pull trillions away from other markets in the long run.

 

[EasyGoing]

I told you bitcoin would not find floor until $6,000

it will be short lived but in the long run will not matter. Very soon short convexity will unfold across bond and equity markets. this casino gonna blow as a market blowup driven by lehman brothers event but on a sovereign level as a modern economy disintegrates tossing the global markets into chaos ... the nation states are the markets now / risk

you can't solve a debt deflation issue with more debt. it's gonna get very, very , very bad. could be tomorrow, could be in three years. but when it hits bitcoin profits will be at the back of mind as the real economy and social unrest will be top of mind.

The global central banks have no control, as they take from the future production they also multiply unknown risks. The last few days are tremors before the 14.6 quake strikes

Liked this post. Everybody knows it's coming.

 

[Kankakee]

Kankakee, that is the whole reason for Crypto. That is why Satoshi Nakamoto invented bitcoin. Money cycles rise and fall about every 7-10 years. Crypto will help equalize the falls. Did you notice crypto was falling, then as soon as the stock market took that big hit, it turned around. Everybody is going to pull fiat from markets, and invest in crypto, IMO. This will be a slow movement, over the next 10 years. However Crypto will pull trillions away from other markets in the long run.

Indeed.

But they are in control / gangsters. Bitcoin will not save anyone from whats coming.

The world trade is intertwined with fiat and liability. If rates spike very high ( imo it will ) bitcoin will not save businesses or governments from crashing. We are lock-step with history from late 20's into 30's they did quantitative easing then. Bernanke a student phd career focused on that time. His election and service not dumb luck, these phd's understand way in advance whats coming then in 2007 and today.

We have not had high inflation for 25 plus years. Short term normal but stepping back 80-90 years is how you learn as nothing new under the sun if you study history. The AI bots trading markets in 2018 look and have inputs from recent history, driving by looking in rear-view. Many people seen 2007 coming, joe-six did not and purchased homes into teeth of massive correction. So calm waters of massive debt issuance hiding problems the VIX being at historic lows is not normal. The traditional business cycle of recession over last 30 years is once every 7 years. So bad times of slow growth moving forward would not be shocking. But interest rates climbing rapidly into inflation going crazy would be new for most under 50 years of age as they have only known central bank bailouts and low interest rates.

Bonds, equity markets, gold all falling in value

How quickly would stores empty of food ? Like Germany.

Hitler came into power after much destruction of pride and wealth then he ripped apart their history as people yearned for the good ole days. Millions got behind him.

Xi in China, Trump in USA getting people ready with nationalistic pride people love materialism so much, they will support almost anything lurching and searching for prior success / status.....

The world is at a tipping point. The globe already a powder keg, no imagine a global depression unfolding and what would unfold in realtime on the streets with limited food and no more pharma pills etc ..... it would not take much as every balance sheet ( real cash / liabilities ) the liability debt servicing multiples above cash on hand.

This is why i say it will not be lehman brothers event but an entire nation going under. States, pension funds , counties now countries totally underwater. No image interest rates exploding upwards. It would cause the entire globalization economy imploding quickly.

 

[Kankakee]

but if everyone knows its coming the worst hiding place is being in debt.

not sure this is the case. materialism aint cheap and most using credit like meth junkies " keeping up with the joneses " construct is the norm for 99%. this was not smart as pound of flesh extracted'

 

[Kankakee]

U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage now sit 4.3% & climbing daily ( this continues watch out ) now look at credit card statements etc.....

the rocket ride is just starting, buckle up. people will soon regret those zero % auto loans. just more income diverted point being diverted from savings even at 0% desperation auto producers and banks. just another warning sign but people look at it like christmas'

 

[englishrick]

Do you guys think this is a good time to invest in an ico that's based on mining coins?

icos tend to play out like this..

the ico starts and they raise the money...people sit on the coin till it hits it's first real exchange...the coin gets pumped before it lands on every new exchange ...

normally...the first time a coin hits an exchange it lands on itd ass and is dumped like a rock...it then finds it's base and then the game is on...

I usaly watch for that moment just after it's first megga dump..thats when I put money in..not before

 

[EasyGoing]

Indeed.

But they are in control / gangsters. Bitcoin will not save anyone from whats coming.

The world trade is intertwined with fiat and liability. If rates spike very high ( imo it will ) bitcoin will not save businesses or governments from crashing. We are lock-step with history from late 20's into 30's they did quantitative easing then. Bernanke a student phd career focused on that time. His election and service not dumb luck, these phd's understand way in advance whats coming then in 2007 and today.

We have not had high inflation for 25 plus years. Short term normal but stepping back 80-90 years is how you learn as nothing new under the sun if you study history. The AI bots trading markets in 2018 look and have inputs from recent history, driving by looking in rear-view. Many people seen 2007 coming, joe-six did not and purchased homes into teeth of massive correction. So calm waters of massive debt issuance hiding problems the VIX being at historic lows is not normal. The traditional business cycle of recession over last 30 years is once every 7 years. So bad times of slow growth moving forward would not be shocking. But interest rates climbing rapidly into inflation going crazy would be new for most under 50 years of age as they have only known central bank bailouts and low interest rates.

Bonds, equity markets, gold all falling in value

How quickly would stores empty of food ? Like Germany.

Hitler came into power after much destruction of pride and wealth then he ripped apart their history as people yearned for the good ole days. Millions got behind him.

Xi in China, Trump in USA getting people ready with nationalistic pride people love materialism so much, they will support almost anything lurching and searching for prior success / status.....

The world is at a tipping point. The globe already a powder keg, no imagine a global depression unfolding and what would unfold in realtime on the streets with limited food and no more pharma pills etc ..... it would not take much as every balance sheet ( real cash / liabilities ) the liability debt servicing multiples above cash on hand.

This is why i say it will not be lehman brothers event but an entire nation going under. States, pension funds , counties now countries totally underwater. No image interest rates exploding upwards. It would cause the entire globalization economy imploding quickly.

It's almost like I wrote all that...... Great post. I have been saying those exact things since mid Obama. It's not going to be pretty when it all hits, and you couldn't be more right. Get your debt in order boys and girls. Study history. Great post.

 

[Douglas.Curtis]

Anyone else in my boat? Only debt I'm carrying are the FRN's in my pocket.

 

[Kankakee]

lots of people " bought the dip " overnight ....

gonna get waterboarded. this markets gotta climb fast or your gonna see another wave of selling much larger than the last. the v.i.x complex crushed but 1.4 trillion in short gamma at risk, on knifes edge.

pension overwrite, option funds, risk premia, cta, vol targeting, risk parity.

the issue is the most profitable funds ( over last 3-4 years ) not heady macro guys but these risk funds all on one side of boat. so if sell triggers unfold all the trading bots selling at once.

be very safe.....

 

[Kankakee]

the new budget deal needs double the amount of debt issuance over next 12-24 months. ( + tax cuts )

just as our fed winding down purchasing of our bonds. this almost guarantees higher rates in 10Y - 30Y bonds. bonds have been falling for 30 + years. a trend reversal is very big news. just as business have issued record amounts of debt at cycles bottom. 360 billion in debt must be rolled over next 12 months into teeth of higher interest rates ...

and another country could be in very big trouble regarding liquidity and such. never forget we own the printing press for USD. we can print in extreme conditions if needed. other countries and businesses must borrow so they can secure USD for paying off debts issued in USD. so many possibilities of black swan event as crash from left field catches markets by surprise ....

 

[Douglas.Curtis]

Lol... the USA owns their printing presses. lololol

Never heard term "the federal reserve is as federal as Federal Express? Go read up on what public school doesn't teach.

 

[Kankakee]

indeed. u can't produce more dollars without them ....

maybe others can chime in and teach about gamma, letters of credit, dollar denominated debt or just general front running.. maybe stick said head out regarding predictions. in any space ... or even drop useful charts for education.?

or like most pop some big pharma pills, engulf debt and keep watching the kardashians / head in sand and " hope " for the best!

 

[Kankakee]

10.5 Trillion of dollar denominated debt ( outside usa )

this issue is not about equity markets, bond markets that dwarf equities. it's about joe-six in europe filled with muslims today, the bunkers being rebuilt across sweden, the hatred across mid-east, un-fundable liabilities in pensions, the rising nationalism across the globe, the class warfare building within usa, income inequality. across the globe we find many, many hotspots of conflict already underway. ( moral compass ? or not so much ? ) the last 100 years filled with killing, cheating, stealing on many levels because of war or greed .... world war can be driven by economics and develop quickly with much swiftness ....

it's forward thinking how everyone globally reacts when the matrix of materialism burst in all it's glory and how the pill poppers, drug attics, anarchist, lab rats respond ? Bitcoin could hit 20,000 again, the equity markets could bounce and the bread and circus continues ....

but ignoring the tremors or ignoring the massive margin debt not very smart.

at the end of the day this will overcome monetary gains of the individual and be more about conduct of those around us.