Just saw the news. They still have over 350,000 votes to tally in maricopa county.
This is correct. It is not over by a long shot. I suspected this might be the case last night with the bizarrely lopsided vote against 205 in Maricopa county. It didn't make sense, as it should have at least been close.
If you look into the details, I think it is still possible that it could pass. I bet it will be at least close.
Currently, NO has about 83K more votes than YES.
From what I can gather, the votes to be counted break down like this:
470K total broken down into:
415K early ballots of which 200K were mailed in and just hadn't been counted yet, and 215K that were dropped off at polling places.
55K provisional ballots
This is interesting because of the demographics of these different types of ballots. The people that requested early ballots and mailed them in before the election favored Donald Trump and NO on Prop 205. So those 200K uncounted mailed-in ballots should add anywhere from 5K to 10K to the NO side, resulting in an overall lead by NO of 88K to 93K.
The 215K early ballots that were turned in at the polling places on election day are a different story though. Most of these kind of ballots are from a demographic that will heavily favor YES (urban minorities and young people). The way I figure it, a little more than 70% of these would have to be YES to draw even with a NO total of 93K. This is possible. The early ballots turned in to polling places on election day really do skew very heavily to the right demo for this to be possible.
The provisional ballots are similar. These are ballots from people where there is some irregularity, like they don't have the correct ID or they are not on the roster of the polling location. This demo is mainly comprised of disadvantaged people, minorities, and young people, in other words, YES voters. I think that once the valid provisional ballots are counted, they will favor YES in a similar proportion as the early ballots dropped off at the polling places.
So, don't get your hopes up too much, but it is definitely possible it will pass. I think it will.