Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[OptionDork]

Hey just to clarify something I probably have about 10,000+ posts on 4 different canna forums since 2005. On IC I have at least 2,500. That has NOTHING to do with short term trades in the stock market though.

Today was frustrating...saw PCLN develop nicely below 198 and chickened out once again. Once it broke out intraday the 900 weekly calls were at least a 6 bagger (600%) return, within an hour and a half. Saw friends make big bank. I hate playing momo stocks yet think I might need to to make life more interesting . I passed on LNKD intraday and spared me from a 100% loss there yet if timing was right that was at least a 200% gain. Trading weekly options on Thursday-Friday can be quite lucrative. AMZN paid off huge today for those in early.

 

[OptionDork]

And that's why you don't trade on earnings and inventory reports. LOL!

Well trading on earnings is hit and miss and mostly miss yet the hits can far outweigh the misses. Look at UA TRIP and VMW this past week as examples. Oh yeah and I saw people play FB earnings and got like 3,000% gains. BIDU was another one that payed off HUGE! Definitely a gamble though. We're talking 10, 20, 30 and even 40 baggers if you played them right and got lucky over a two day period.

 

[OptionDork]

And that's why you don't trade on earnings and inventory reports. LOL!

Saw someone turn less than $500 into $75,000 on NFLX earnings overnight and if they held another day it would have been $150,000. It does happen yet very rare. Most times people get creamed on earnings plays. The expected move is priced in both ways so the reporting company needs to offer up a big surprise.

 

[OptionDork]

Someday i'll get into options but margin gives me enough leverage for now. Hey thx for the mention of slca and amba opdork, both high ranking IBD type stocks, thats the kind of stuff i'm interested in. I like that they are relatively new and small caps with seemingly pretty reasonable valuations.

Gotta love IBD. Have been following IBD stuff on and off since about 1992. I remember the day my dad stuck a paper version of Investors Business Daily in my hand and he basically said this is good stuff and learn it.

I think AMBA getting close to a good breakout soon and SLCA has earnings Wednesday after hours. It pretty much finished up a very nice channel with a solid handle. Playing earnings always a crapshoot.

 

[OptionDork]

Someday i'll get into options but margin gives me enough leverage for now. Hey thx for the mention of slca and amba opdork, both high ranking IBD type stocks, thats the kind of stuff i'm interested in. I like that they are relatively new and small caps with seemingly pretty reasonable valuations.

Still working on my post count and can't edit. Regarding SLCA also look at HCLP. I think both pay high dividends and market moving away from high dividend stocks. I've lost track of the ETF or index that tracks that and pretty fugly recently. If you want to look at competitors for SLCA and HCLP look at CRR. CRR's products are more effective long term yet more expensive and may be getting some competition soon...I think yet lose track of a lot of stuff. Problem with SLCA or HCLP products is they are not as effective in the fracking process to keep the cracks in the earth they create open and production like CRR's products yet much less expensive.

Just think about it they are basically fracturing the structure of the earth...scary...and proven to create earthquakes. From what I've read not from the actual fracking process and from when they pump back in waste water from the process. That's messed up!

 

[OptionDork]

And that's why you don't trade on earnings and inventory reports. LOL!

Oh also forgot SBUX earnings. Saw someone pick up the 70 weekly calls yesterday very early and ended up selling them today for like a 10 bagger.

Options are nutz and you have to have a few marbles loose and steel gonads to trade them. NOT for the faint of heart or weak spined. You can take a more conservative route though. LEAP's rock in a full blown bull market. Take a gander at the January 2014 SODA 80's. They just might work out well . SODA looks ready to turn.

 

[OptionDork]

Someday i'll get into options but margin gives me enough leverage for now. Hey thx for the mention of slca and amba opdork, both high ranking IBD type stocks, thats the kind of stuff i'm interested in. I like that they are relatively new and small caps with seemingly pretty reasonable valuations.

Thought about this overnight and here's an option for you to take a look at with something like a low beta stock like SLCA. One mentor told me to buy In The Money options a few months out to give the chance for the stock to work. The deeper you get in the money the less premium you have. The option will move in tandem with the stock unlike Out of The money options.

So instead of buying 100 shares of SLCA for $2,354 you buy 1 September 20 call option for $380 as that's what the last trade went through at and ended the day at 3.70 bid x 4.00 ask. The fees on both will be about the same so we'll ignore that. For you to end flat on September 20 when the option expires it would need to close at $23.80. When you add the premium value on the option to the closing price of $23.54 you are 'renting' each share of stock for $.26 which ain't too bad if you are bullish on the stock and feel it can make your targeted move, whatever that is, within the time frame you hold the contract. With IBD they recommend an 8% loss max so if you buy at $23.54 you would put in a stop loss at $21.66 and you can put in tight stop losses depending on your technical analysis savvy. So if you caclulate that 8% loss of $188 into your option cost you would sell the option at 1.92 for things to be equal. That being said an issue with options is say a company has something bad happen to it or announces a secondary offering and the stock gaps down you could be looking at a total loss. If you are holding the common you can ride out situations longer because you have no time limit on your position. The flip side to that is say the stock REALLY tanks and it sees a 20% loss that's a drop of $470 which is a greater loss than what you would experience with the option. IF the stock price drops below the option strike price that does not mean your option would be worthless yet you would still most likely be looking at a significant loss especially on low beta stocks due to the low premiums which also make them good plays if you feel the stock is ready to bust out and make a good move. I recommended WWWW to someone before it broke out on 6-25 and he got a 700% gain and would have gotten more if he held on for a few more days. KKD gave a 300% gain after it broke out on 7-2. I like to time breakouts on quality stocks like those listed on IBD yet getting more into momo stuff.

 

[OptionDork]

Applying that same scenario to AMBA you'd have to go deeper in the money. Looks like an ascending base and don't feel it's made the move it has the potential to yet. For SLCA they've had one earnings report and 2 secondary offerings while it was in that channel so that's good. I think AMBA might be riskier in that I don't know if they done secondary stock or bond offerings and didn't look close enough. Either of those can be like a Black Swan event, usually albeit temporary, for an individual stock . I like the decelerating volume in AMBA since 7-17 and think it will hold above 18 which is important IMO. Just looks like constant buying in the chart. Since the end of April on a weekly chart look at the buying vs selling . Anything can happen though...ANYTHING!

CTRP and SOHU looking very interesting. DANG is moving I missed an entry for the August 8 calls. DDD might finally see a pop soon. GMCR could rock this week. HLF earnings after hous Monday and what a battle between Ackman and Icahn. I think Ackman will lose and eventually have to cover his short position and that will set off some fireworks. If things go well HLF will see 70 soon.

 

[OptionDork]

So if you caclulate that 8% loss of $188 into your option cost you would sell the option at 1.92 for things to be equal.

Sucks I can't edit yet. An 8% loss on the common for SLCA right now would be a drop from $23.54 to $21.66 and that's $1.88 per share or $188 for 100 shares so if you're in the September 20 strike calls you'd need to sell at 1.92 from 3.80 to achieve that the exact same $ loss when comparing the common to the options. You'd have an 8% loss on the common yet a 49.5% loss on the option and still a $188 loss on either position. You're only risking $380 compared to $2,354 when comparing the option position to common. Hope that makes sense

 

[OptionDork]

Ooops just read that SOHU reports before the open on Monday. Any chance to play this one, for now until we see what happens on earnings and how the stock reacts, is done. Looks like a solid chart. Broke out on Friday. Monday will be fun! I'm not in it. BIDU reported well and gapped out after earnings. I think SOHU will gap out and up on Monday. Next chance for me will be CTRP.

 

[Snype]

Hey just to clarify something I probably have about 10,000+ posts on 4 different canna forums since 2005. On IC I have at least 2,500. That has NOTHING to do with short term trades in the stock market though.

Today was frustrating...saw PCLN develop nicely below 198 and chickened out once again. Once it broke out intraday the 900 weekly calls were at least a 6 bagger (600%) return, within an hour and a half. Saw friends make big bank. I hate playing momo stocks yet think I might need to to make life more interesting . I passed on LNKD intraday and spared me from a 100% loss there yet if timing was right that was at least a 200% gain. Trading weekly options on Thursday-Friday can be quite lucrative. AMZN paid off huge today for those in early.

Wow that's crazy! I didn't even know you can make money like that in options. I gotta learn more about options.

 

[OptionDork]

Wow that's crazy! I didn't even know you can make money like that in options. I gotta learn more about options.

Wish I could edit. That should have been 898 and not 198. Actually when I looked at the chart again it was 897. Below is a 5 minute chart of PCLN on Friday and watched it develop and did...nothing D'Oh. If you got in a 1:10 PM by 2:15 to 2:25 PM you had about a 600% gain. Daily chart patterns show up intraday. 600% in a little over an hour on the PCLN weekly 900 calls.

 

[Snype]

If Natural Gas doesn't close at least 3.52 tomorrow then it looks like the next drop will be to 3.40 and that's the point where I would buy more. I don't see it going below 3.365 but if it does there will be no floor to catch it.

 

[HenDokuYaku]

Oil is breaking out and building support around 106-107. There is tons of support at 103. The next resistance is around 110

 

[Snype]

Picked up some UGAZ this morning in the very low 20's. Going to gamble on today's Natural Gas inventory report coming out at 10:30. I'm willing to hold for a couple weeks if I have to. Let's see what happens.

Now that I have about a 20% loss in UGAZ, I picked up the same amount of shares that I originally bought the first time. I bought my new shares in the high 15's so now I'm priced in at $18. Scared money will only lose you more money. You can't have any fear in the stock market. Let's see what happens.

Natural Gas is at $3.433 at the moment. I expect to see a bounce to the upside at $3.40. I don't expect Natural Gas to stay below $3.40 but if it does there is no floor at all to catch it, according to the charts. We will see what happens.

 

[OptionDork]

AMBA obviously failed and felt that 18 was important to hold. On a 5 minute chart yesterday it basically crashed right through it and closed below it's lower trendline support. SLCA broke out yesterday of that beautiful handle to end the channel and looking very solid. With earnings after the bell tomorrow so don't know what it will do during trading.

DDD blew up yesterday on an upgrade then really struggled today after earnings were released.

Anyway I've got a business project to attend to and won't be looking at the market for a few months as I need to focus 100% of my energy elsewhere.

Happy trading!

 

[Stonefree69]

Another strong pullback. This could be interesting if you're buying the dips. Market down despite good economic news (because of the Fed), that could be a sign the market has topped already. Still IDK why I'm long term bullish, maybe because I think the economy is going to have some good steam for a while.

 

[OptionDork]

Another strong pullback. This could be interesting if you're buying the dips. Market down despite good economic news (because of the Fed), that could be a sign the market has topped already. Still IDK why I'm long term bullish, maybe because I think the economy is going to have some good steam for a while.

Well if the economy has good steam then Fed will taper soon and faster. I told friends a few days ago the market was headed for a dump. Wednesday near the close was looking at NUGT 8 calls and FAZ 30 calls yet didn't pull the trigger. Yesterday the NUGT 8's went up about 250% and the FAZ 30's went up about 600%...D'Oh! Saw people attempting to buy the dip with new call positions and to myself said they're just pissing in the wind at this point. Looks like those 2 positions will be up even more today and shaping up to gap up. Man did I blow it lol. Saw people make about 8000% on some AAPL calls earlier in the week. Someone else up 1000% on some SLV calls this week. Options are crazy, challenging and at times frustrating .

 

[Stonefree69]

Short term bear, longer term bull. A dip buyers dream? Near 1640 and 1600 big test points. If Monday pulls back a bit or goes down I'm looking to then buy near that test level. This is for buying future indicies mainly on close.

1 month - August 2013 S&P 500

6 month- monthly 2013 S&P 500

 

[Stonefree69]

S&P 500 1 year

S&P 500 monthly

S&P 500 5 day

Buying on close yesterday would have been crazy knowing the recent news. With the news on Syria - there goes 1640! 1600 next?! This bearish correction could "reverse the poles". Then again a long term bull opportunity.

Bet a lot of long term bulls got hit. The economy is still strong. I don't have a crystal ball on what the conflict or war will bring. First of all I'm not Russia... Buy? Definitely more of a correction to the downside potential. This may be screaming short term sell.