Colorado "legalization" going to affect prices nationwide?

[unspoken]

I predict marijuana prices are actually going to rise in the short term, as the roadblocks on the "demand" side of the equation are immediately lifted, while the legislature has what...a year? six months? to come up with legislation implementing the regulation and licensing of the supply side. In short term there will probably be a large increase in mom and pop sized illegal grows with a corresponding increase in schwag on the market within six months, keeping the low end pricing mostly stable or decreasing, while high grade cannabis will become even more sought after and expensive. This situation will start to reverse itself within 12-24 months as larger facilities begin to be licensed and bring their production online.

In any case it's the low end that's going to suffer the largest price drop first. Those businessmen who are smart and know what they're doing will stay on the high end of the market, taking advantage of their expertise of the plant to bring forth a better and in some way unique product, rather than trying to compete on the low end on mass scale with the huge industrial players.

You are spot on IMO.

 

[BrnCow]

Not enough top shelf growers to screw with the market much...the mids and low end will be flooded locally. The big change is that within 180 days, Mexican cartel weed will be worth nothing in these legal states. This will dig into their operating expenses better than all the DEA efforts put together....top shelf will still be worth something no matter what the rest does. Disp prices are already low at $20 an eighth...but top shelf is hard to come by even by the disps. Medium level growers are in a hurry to turn crops and will not wait the extra two or three weeks to finish and flush their stuff. Look at the gold prices...top shelf is still top shelf...and like gold, it will be in demand...check this idea out in a year and see if I am wrong...

 

[BrnCow]

There are several things people can do to help keep the negative media reports subdued. One is to stay away from raising commercial that is racy and might cause some heart problems. Stick with stuff like blueberry and other strains like that. If a bunch of people start having hospital emergency room visits then the ire of the cop crowd with be stirred up and cause problems. The second is is you are shipping shit around the country or even locally, make damn sure the vehicles used are in complete compliance including lights, tags, insurance, and are clean and benign looking 4 door haulers. White, gold,and silver are preferred colors. There needs to be two people in the car and the car needs working cruise control and an accurate speedometer. Tires need to be like new with a good spare and a good after market jack. Maybe an electric lug wrench and a real tire instead of those factory bullshit spares. That way, if you have a flat, two guys can pull a NASCAR type change out and be back on the road in just a few minutes. They won't have to stop somewhere and have a new tire mounted until they want to...maybe way out of the area or during the day if it happens at night. Escort makes a radar detector that looks like a GPS for more safety. Smell proof bags are a must. Sport store bear proof bags will do. Heat sealed heavy smell proof plastic will work good also as long as sticks do no puncture it. No drinking or smoking and driving. No speeding if possible. There are a thousand other things but these two will help keep weed off the front page both in Co or Wa as well as other places - like I40 - the cops favorite bust highway. They even have gas tank cameras in their cop cars...and check your goddamn lights every evening before they are needed while on the road...

 

[dddaver]

The fact is, legalization will do much more harm than good, economically. The government, through prohibition, has artificially inflated the price of a product that is easy to produce, and benefits millions of people and local economies alike.

Weed growers spend money!!!!

Weed growers have a nice harvest, and:

1. Go out to nice dinners, leaving nice tips for servers, patronizing local restaurants.
2. Go on vacations. Stimulating tourism, other locale industries.
3. Buy cars, products, etc.

Growers pay taxes on everything they purchase.

Big-pharma/Phillip Morris, take their profits, park their money in tax havens, stocks, and generally hoard millions of dollars that would otherwise be injected into the economy and spread around to millions of people.

This is not the time for legalization, and the voters in Colorado and Washington have forever fucked our beloved industry. Thanks!

STUPID argument. Sounds like our some rich prick arguing that trickle down economics is a GOOD thing.

The fact is growers are VAST minority especially when compared to the millions of dollars generated by legalization.

Get a clue.

 

[cobcoop]

MJ will be taxed three times in CO, that means to get $50 an 8th retail the grower gets $15. Illegal pot will still be sold just as moonshine is "tax free".

Med growers in Co by and large don't get paid shit, I'd say the average is around 35k/year. They are mostly on fixed salaries, and many great growers are getting fucked by the shop owners. It will be no different under the retail system.

 

[jburns]

im goin out on a limb here...... i think prices will spike like a mofo.

you have a functioning mmj scene. at x per oz. ...... this system will deplete with all the new legal customers driving demand through the roof.

i forsee growers making a killing for the next 5-10 years until things really stabilize.

 

[Puffaluffagus]

The big change is that within 180 days, Mexican cartel weed will be worth nothing in these legal states. This will dig into their operating expenses better than all the DEA efforts put together...

Yep, and Mexico knows it, check out this article


https://www.icmag.com/ic/showthread.php?t=249056

Goodbye moldy ass ammonia smelling mexibrick

 

[lost in a sea]

how much will peoples jaws drop when the first big agripharma corp says it has thousands of tons of patented weed ready for the market..

game over, or game on..

 

[FlowerFarmer]

CO is going to be the best smelling state around..
I wonder if we'll smell you guys enjoying your legal gardens when the wind blows.

Look at oil, alcohol, and tobacco companies. Some of the highest taxed items, they seem to be doing all right.

Not really the direction I'd like to see the industry take, but that is where it's headed whether we like it or not. They seem to be doing alright because they are massive corporations with deep pockets and their hands in the inner workings of the regulatory system. I have a feeling these corporations will stop at no costs to eliminate competition and lock up the industry in their favor, sliding through new laws, taxes, and regulations which may make it very prohibitive for us to grow and continue to make a living in our field.


I'm stoked though that people in CO and WA no longer have to worry about state/local prosecution for a plant and hope that it spreads nationwide. I'm just hesitant to see where this takes us as small struggling families/growers in our current economic death spiral will no longer be able to support themselves off of their modest couple light gardens as they once did. I know of too many who their garden has been their saving grace to keep their homes & food on their tables after being laid off and unemployed despite education/skills help and obtained. Lots of people (not just greedy cash croppers) paying the bills through the underground economy.

I'm even more stoked and interested in seeing what happens with industrial hemp and how it could change industry as we know it. It very well may be the saving grace for struggling farmers.

I'm sure we'll all find our place... but the unknown is a bit unnerving. Much is going to change, and aside from state prosecution, I feel that much of it is not going to be as rosy as we picture it.

I just hope WA and CO residents fight hard to retain some control in the legal cannabis trade and don't let big corp and big pharma come in and take it all - prohibiting the regular citizen from participating in many areas. So long as people can partake and grow their 3 plants without trouble I'm all in favor of it, freedom is worth more then any amount of money.

 

[Obsidian]

we won't know what will happen till after Jan 2014 when the first licenses and permits are issued.
It's going to be a buyers market, this next year 2013.
dealers will say cost $$$, said buyer will say to much $$$, I can get better for $$$
dealer will say go get it, yada yada
a flooded market will create no demand.
people will be served.

it justy like the beer industry.

You have schwillies drinking PBR's, Budw, Coors, Sam adams, etc
then you have the connoisseurs drinking fine Craft beers
same with wine, and food
The same will happen with nugs
they will pay for crap or quality, yet this so called demand will stabilize prices.

 

[Nor'Easter]

I wonder if this is finally going to force the feds to legalize or at least reschedule, or if they will be invading CO and WA to make a point and try to stop the avalanche toward legalization. I have hay fields and a farmer woman who thinks she deserves it for free just for cutting it. I am already thinking of better alternatives once this goes nationwide!

 

[Max Yields]

I can't really say how this will affect the whole "herb market", but I can say this...I know well grown herb when I smoke it. If I was to be buying this cheaper stuff, I'd get what I paid for. What I'm saying is that there will always be a market for quality well grown herb & a demand for it. The quality herb will still be as valuable, maybe only a slight price drop if there's any at all.

The market would have a lot of herb that wasn't grown as well for cheaper, this would put a dent in the cartel weed market because there would be more of it than theirs. Even though it's legal not everyone will be growing good bud. I can't count the amount of times before that I bought something that was supposed to be killer, only to be highly dissapointed because it was grown shitty, or other harvesting issues. Guess what, I never went back to buy from that dealer again, even with a price drop. At best the market will be flooded with more cheaper "dro" or improperly grown "beasters" you could say,
(I don't like those terms too much j/s) than cartel weed. Quality herb will still retain it's value in my opinion.

 

[johnnybravo]

There are several things people can do to help keep the negative media reports subdued. One is to stay away from raising commercial that is racy and might cause some heart problems. Stick with stuff like blueberry and other strains like that. If a bunch of people start having hospital emergency room visits then the ire of the cop crowd with be stirred up and cause problems. The second is is you are shipping shit around the country or even locally, make damn sure the vehicles used are in complete compliance including lights, tags, insurance, and are clean and benign looking 4 door haulers. White, gold,and silver are preferred colors. There needs to be two people in the car and the car needs working cruise control and an accurate speedometer. Tires need to be like new with a good spare and a good after market jack. Maybe an electric lug wrench and a real tire instead of those factory bullshit spares. That way, if you have a flat, two guys can pull a NASCAR type change out and be back on the road in just a few minutes. They won't have to stop somewhere and have a new tire mounted until they want to...maybe way out of the area or during the day if it happens at night. Escort makes a radar detector that looks like a GPS for more safety. Smell proof bags are a must. Sport store bear proof bags will do. Heat sealed heavy smell proof plastic will work good also as long as sticks do no puncture it. No drinking or smoking and driving. No speeding if possible. There are a thousand other things but these two will help keep weed off the front page both in Co or Wa as well as other places - like I40 - the cops favorite bust highway. They even have gas tank cameras in their cop cars...and check your goddamn lights every evening before they are needed while on the road...

that is worth remembering!
thanx BrnCow!

 

[Obsidian]

check light, signals, brakes, check you signal lens and repair cracks and broken lenses. Make sure your tinted windows are in regulation. Repair that cracked windshield.
don't have a lead foot, stay at the speed limit, and pay attention to your surrounding, don't run yellow lights they may turn red, make sure you have your tickets paid up, insurance paid, current, registration etc. we walk on the razor's edge
all common sense stuff to do...

 

[Scottish Research]

This thread is like one big "Canna Circle Jerk"

If and when it ever gets legalized or medicalized nationwide then big pharma will move in and monopolize production.

The Fed is against state level legalization because it will allow or facilitate even more inter-state trafficking.

R.Fortune

 

[gingerale]

If and when it ever gets legalized or medicalized nationwide then big pharma will move in and monopolize production.

I will take pleasure in proving you wrong.

 

[shredGnar]

You all who think prices are going to drop substantially, especially nationwide, because Colorado residents can grow 6 plants need to lay off the oil.. It has been legal to grow 6 plants in your yard in Denver for over a year.

The market is not even hardly going to be affeced due to the laws being a bit more lax.. it was practically decriminalized before ammendment 64 anyhow..

Everyone interested in herb already has a medical card.. I seriously doubt this "change" will even open up anymore shops, the dispeneries will more than likely have dibs if there are any municipal laws limiting the amount of stores that can have the license to sell pot (like in my county). Dispeneries will pay $500 for a license and that will be that...

I live in a ski-town a few hours from Denver so we are taxed a bit more for transport.. but I have actually seen an INCREASE in the price for pounds from caretakers on lbs...

Plus there will be an up to 15% sales tax for the product, making people more likely to hold on to the meds they have grown instead of paying the ridiculous tax..

take it easy east-coasters... Pounds will still fetch $4k all day

 

[gingerale]

The market is not even hardly going to be affeced due to the laws being a bit more lax.. it was practically decriminalized before ammendment 64 anyhow..day

Your analysis is incorrect because you're underestimating the effect of the word "LEGAL" on people's minds. People's buying decisions aren't based on the facts, they are based on popular interpretations of the facts. "Practically decriminalized" is nothing and nowhere in the same ballpark as "LEGAL", which is the word that is now spreading like wildfire through the country and the entire world as well. In people's minds, it's now LEGAL in two states, noise and rumblings from the Feds be damned. YES this WILL have an effect on the market, and we will see it soon. Those "only" six plants per person will add up. Another thing is the number of illegal grows will likewise increase due to the perception of it now being legal and something that can be "gotten away with." Tourism will increase, local consumption will spike, etc etc. There will be overall large and measurable effects on pricing and supply.

 

[2uptown]

pffft. no effect on market price. 6 plants will add up to six plants. thats funny

 

[FlowerFarmer]

You all who think prices are going to drop substantially, especially nationwide, because Colorado residents can grow 6 plants need to lay off the oil.. It has been legal to grow 6 plants in your yard in Denver for over a year.

The market is not even hardly going to be affeced due to the laws being a bit more lax.. it was practically decriminalized before ammendment 64 anyhow..

Everyone interested in herb already has a medical card.. I seriously doubt this "change" will even open up anymore shops, the dispeneries will more than likely have dibs if there are any municipal laws limiting the amount of stores that can have the license to sell pot (like in my county). Dispeneries will pay $500 for a license and that will be that...

I live in a ski-town a few hours from Denver so we are taxed a bit more for transport.. but I have actually seen an INCREASE in the price for pounds from caretakers on lbs...

Plus there will be an up to 15% sales tax for the product, making people more likely to hold on to the meds they have grown instead of paying the ridiculous tax..

take it easy east-coasters... Pounds will still fetch $4k all day

The eastern markets are already well effected due to the amount of medical growers sending their work out of state for more $$ then they can get legally. Its landing here cheaper then ever before.. and not in small quantities.. This year it seems to be of much higher quality then years past and it is definitely competing with the $3600/lb stuff moved here locally. Seeing many drop their prices to 2.6-3k this year to make it move while fucking tons of medical outdoor flood in with less markup then historically.

The more lax it is in med/legal states.. the more that makes it way out of those states and into non-med states. With everyone being allowed to grow 6 plants how many black market entrepreneurs do you think will use that to their advantage to operate quasi legal while sending their work east. Will they only be growing 6 plants.. of course not, but they'll be operating more comfortably in CO to grow illegal crops under the guise of legality and the medical game. Are they sending around agents to make sure everyone is abiding by the guidelines and only flowering 3 plants? Yea right.

Plus there will be an up to 15% sales tax for the product, making people more likely to hold on to the meds they have grown instead of paying the ridiculous tax..

What? We are talking about legalization effecting nationwide prices. More herb will be leaving CO.. tax free. Legalization will actually be incentive for those harvests to go elsewhere.



I really don't understand how you can legalize in only a few states and actually expect any regulation to hold water. The black market will reign and people will be doing what they do to move their work out of state.. free of any regulations or tax... for more money.

How much difference legalization vs. the current medical will make.. only time will tell, but if you cannot see that less opposition in friendly states effects the market price in unfriendly states..you need to lay off the oil yourself.


PS - its not those taking a bit of work east and selling it for higher prices that are fucking up the market. Its the big movers dumping thousands of medical lbs eastern at just a hair over med-state or whatever prices.



Its whatever though. I'm all for people not going to jail over the most useful plant on the planet. Lets us finally farm some hemp and make things.
Recreational herb, medical herb, cartel herb, street herb... it all gets used up somewhere. It really is amazing.. it'll be interesting to see that demand ever change.