Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[Madrus Rose]

Mobius Says QE3 Would be ‘Very Good’ for Emerging Stocks as China Rallies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...ood-for-emerging-stocks-as-china-rallies.html

Chinese stocks will “probably see a rally” this week after being closed last week for the Lunar New Year holiday, said Mobius, 75. “There’s no question” China will continue to loosen monetary policy and he recommends consumer, energy and commodity stocks in the country, he said.

BIDU SINA DANG all popped big friday , DANG surprising 100% gainer jan....


GOOGle surprised with big miss on ad revs & got punished but picture perfect 13pt bounce off an oversold RSI and double bottom finally @ $567 on friday....

Well timed shorts on certain stocks after earnings have been working even on the stronges like CAT last week when poped to $115 also XLNX when popping to $38 as these have bid up so far the Fundy's have no choice but to lock in gains .

Greece resolution of sorts : Private bond holders would take more than 60 percent hit on Greek debt under tentative agreement
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Private-investors-near-deal-apf-3894561651.html?x=0

A little more perspective on Massive Plunge In The Baltic Dry Index
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-truth-about-the-massive-plunge-in-the-baltic-dry-index-2012-1

 

[Madrus Rose]

$POT & $CF really shined last week in the fertilizer space even after downgrades after reporting POT rose right back up frustrating shorts , NatGas pricings a big component cost of Nitrate /Urea production and they are all benefitting from bottomed gas prices .

Many have got slammed down also finding lots of bottom fishing bounces too like RVBD & JNPR friday . Even Carnival CCL after the shipwrecked cruise got hammered way down to $28 the following trading day but did get the dead cat bounce to $32 , so even in the worst scenarios theres opportunities for short term gains .

So many stocks that got hammered down last year FSLR DMDN NFLX GMCR SINA DANG SHLD turned into the new years biggest gainers . Going to be another wild year with all the same ingredients and here's where they still will try to spin any news into good news as they let all the negative news flow shake things down where they could gobble up the sweetest entries ( Warren Buffet's sweet deal on BofA @ $5 where he can hardly lose )

Fun to have Jim Cramer regularly making calls & kabitzing in the am off one site have been participating in , he actually called the short on Ford early live friday in the prmarket that was good for over 1pt down , also Herb Greenberg is there and Cramer's constantly teasing him to no end .

DMND SINA BIDU lots of stocks in the spotlight this week its a real choppy and have to trust charts & know the stock your trading .

Apple beat & squeezed up 40pts but also fell back 20pts too ...seems to always do this no matter how they increase targets .

Important earnings reports this week include Exxon-Mobil ( XOM), Amazon ( AMZN), UPS ( UPS), Dow Chemicals ( DOW), and US Steel ( X). and for the full list plus econ report look here
http://www.minyanville.com/business...loyment-data/1/27/2012/id/39079#ixzz1ksQ6VgKk

 

[Snagglepuss]

Stock pro's...Can you give me some advice?

Stock pro's...Can you give me some advice?

My stocks were given to me as a Edward Jones portfolio.Anytime i want to do anything with these .I have to call a broker,talk with him .Then i can make things happen.....

To all you on the board who short,and or buy or make trades and such.What is the best company for trading yourself?What are best tools ,programs ect for anaylising your trades?

Please tell me exactly what you use ,or exactly all that i need to do this on my own.Ive read things here and their.But i want to hear from you guys who do this regularly ,and watch the market.....

Thanks for any advice you can give...and i fully understand the risks involved

 

[Sam the Caveman]

I use MB Trading and use their software program called mbtdesktop pro.

They have some of the best commissions and your orders get filled very quickly.

The software takes a few days to get to know and figure out how to do all the things you like. I did find it easier than ninja trader though, that software drove me crazy, I could not figure it out at all.

If you try desktop pro and have any questions, I'm often in the chatroom on here. They also have a live chat service where you can chat with someone that knows the software. Some days they are very busy and you can't get through, but other days I only have to wait like 5 min or so. If its very important, just pick up the phone and call them, thats the fastest way to reach them.

There have been a few qwerks using them, but when I brought it to their attention, they fixed it immediately and its easy to speak with a real person that can actually do something to help you.

 

[StayHigh149]

The world of investing can be a really confusing task for most, or at least for me. I can't even figure out my damn 401k. Lost 1% last year, with a 100% employer match.

Anyway, I read this thread very often. I may switch some of my 401k to a brokerage acct so I can start buying some individual stocks. I mean, if I'm losing money already...it can't get much worse

 

[Snagglepuss]

I use MB Trading and use their software program called mbtdesktop pro.

They have some of the best commissions and your orders get filled very quickly.

The software takes a few days to get to know and figure out how to do all the things you like. I did find it easier than ninja trader though, that software drove me crazy, I could not figure it out at all.

If you try desktop pro and have any questions, I'm often in the chatroom on here. They also have a live chat service where you can chat with someone that knows the software. Some days they are very busy and you can't get through, but other days I only have to wait like 5 min or so. If its very important, just pick up the phone and call them, thats the fastest way to reach them.

There have been a few qwerks using them, but when I brought it to their attention, they fixed it immediately and its easy to speak with a real person that can actually do something to help you.

Thanks the info Sam.Im trying out one of their Demo accounts right now.I have to say ,this is badass.Exactly what i was looking for.Once i get good at this,when my next investment sells ,im gonna put a big chunk of scratch in one of their live accounts,,,cheers

 

[Sam the Caveman]

This is what I like to see, Judges sticking it to the banksters, this ought to mess them up pretty bad here

Think filing for bankruptcy is the only way to get debt discharge? Think again, at least in Greece.

While previously we have reported that Greek courts had written off “untenable” debts of unemployed Greeks owed to local banks, Kathimerini describes a landmark case which may have profound implications for the indebted country, in which a fully employed woman has had the bulk of her debt written off. From Kathimerini:

“In what could turn out to be a significant ruling for Greeks suffering from the economic crisis, a court in Hania, Crete, has become the first in the country to order that the majority of the debt owed to banks by someone still in full employment be wiped out.

Sunday’s Kathimerini understands that the Justice of the Peace Court in Hania based its decision on a 2010 law that allows judges to give protection to people struggling to meet their financial commitments. Until now, the legislation has only been used to give debt relief to unemployed people or those with no substantial income.” This means that virtually every indebted person in Greece, regardless of employment status will rush into court rooms, demanding equitable treatment and a similar debt write down. It also means that the Greek bank sector, already hopelessly insolvent, is about to see its assets, aka loans issued to consumers, about to be written off entirely. And since the ultimate backstopper of the entire Greek financial system is the ECB, the creeping impairments will have no choice but to impact, very soon, the mark-to-market used by both the ECB and the various national banks. Finally, how long before other courts in Europe express solidarity with their own citizens and proceeds with similar resolutions?

On the specifics of the write off:

In the Hania case, the court ruled in favor of a full-time civil servant. The divorced woman, who has three children, asked to be given protection after her banks refused to offer her new terms for combined loans of 112,000 euros. The unnamed woman explained that she did not have any assets she could sell to pay off her debt.

In its ruling, the court deemed that the woman, who has moved in with her parents, needs 350 euros a month to cover her own costs but that the rest of her earnings could be distributed equally among the three banks she owes money to. The judge deemed that this process should last for four years, meaning the woman would pay back some 30,000 euros and the remaining 82,000 would be written off.

And the implications:

Thousands of people have already appealed to the courts for protection under the 2010 law but legal experts believe the decision in Hania may lead to a new wave of appeals by Greeks who still have jobs but are unable to repay their loans.

Needless to say, this simply means that as locals realize that a domino effect in which bank assets are written down will necessitate a collapse of bank balance sheets, and the asset side of the ledge will be unable to support deposits held by local banks. Which is unfortunate as December saw the first modest signs of a rebound in Greek deposits, which rose modestly from €173 billion to €174 billion following years of consecutive declines.

Written by Tyler Durden
Originally posted at ZeroHedge

 

[TNTBudSticker]

Facebook IPO looks to be coming next week as per the WSJ. Goldman Sachs looks to be handling it. Valuation is at a staggering $100 billion right now.

Cashing in before a Greek default maybe?

I heard now its Morgan Stanley to Lead Social-Networking Site's IPO.I also heard its better for everyone involved because of the fees would be 2%-3% rather than the 5%-8% that is normally charged when a IPO is introduced.

Alot of chitter and chatter so it may be good to be an indian and start a little scalping per share unless one wants to hold for a longer term.

Scottrade always made me happy when any IPO was introduced in the market.You can always get shares.

Early bird gets the Worm.

 

[robbiedublu]

Thanks the info Sam.Im trying out one of their Demo accounts right now.I have to say ,this is badass.Exactly what i was looking for.Once i get good at this,when my next investment sells ,im gonna put a big chunk of scratch in one of their live accounts,,,cheers

You should probably read about what happened to traders at MF Global before you do that.

 

[Madrus Rose]

Facebook IPO: Who Is Getting Rich? Zuckerberg= $28Bil
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2012/02/01/facebook-ipo-who-is-getting-rich/


Here is a look at some early owners of Facebook stock, and how happy they’ll be in coming months:


Every year, the Facebook co-founder takes on a new personal challenge. This year’s quest may simply be to fend off all the people who want a crack at his wallet.

The Facebook co-founder owns a 28.2% voting stake in his company, according to the IPO filing, though the Zuck also votes Facebook shares held by others, the filing disclosed. Based on our colleagues’ reporting, Facebook is eyeing an IPO valuation of $75 billion to $100 billion — or up to a $28 billion windfall for the 27-year-old CEO. That would buy a lot of Zuckerberg hoodies, or hunting excursions. On paper, Zuckerberg would slot in just around the ninth-richest person in the world, based on Forbes’ recent billionaire rankings. That would make Zuckerberg wealthier than Michael Bloomberg, the founding family of Wal-Mart or hedge-fund maven George Soros, according to the Forbes rankings.


1) #FACEBOOKiPO - $ZNGA up after hours to $11.05 ( had gone as high as $11.30 when revealed in #FB IPO filing that its 12% of sales $FB

2) #FACEBOOKiPO - 845 million Monthly average Users as of Dec 31st , 2011 -- in 2004 they had 1million MAU's

3) #FACEBOOKiPO - Sales as of Dec 31st 2011 were $3.711 Billion w/ profits of $1 B --- in 2004 recorded sales of $382,000 $FB #FB

4) #FACEBOOKiPO - regular mumbo jumbo that sales could get affected by government, competition, loss of founder ..bhah blah #FB $FB

5) #FACEBOOKiPO - as of Dec. 31st , 2011 , Cash on Hand $3.908 Billion- still a ways from $AAPL 's close to $100B but great start #FB $FB

6) #FACEBOOKiPO - Lead underwriters Morgan Stanley , 2nd & 3rd were JP Morgan , Goldman Sachs , $MS $JPM $GS #FB $FB

7) #FACEBOOKiPO - Underwriters usually get 5%+ fees but on #FB ipo they may only get 1 -1.5% ( still not bad on a $5 Bill #ipo or $50mil ) $FB

of 496889
8) #FACEBOOKiPO - interesting # 's 845 Million Users, 2.7 Billion Likes/day , 250Mill photos upload/daily , 100 B friendships #FB $FB

9) #FACEBOOKiPO - there are over 2 Billion global internet users and the plan to connect to all of them (interesting for sure) #FB $FB

10) #FACEBOOKiPO - penetration rates for some countries like Chile , Turkey & Venezuela they estimate 80% penetration

11) #FACEBOOKiPO - U.K. and U.S. have approx 60% penetration , China 0% penetration since access restricted - #FB $FB

12) #FACEBOOKiPO - re: Facebook mobile had more than 425 Million Monthly Average Users #FB $FB

13) #FACEBOOKiPO - the #Winklevoss twins were not mentioned once on the SEC filing - I never liked those guys .. #FB $FB


video WATCH: All The Juicy Details About Facebook's Finances

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/facebooks-finances-2012-2#ixzz1lBJGhcfJ

 

[Madrus Rose]

GMCR went medieval tonight on shorts to $65 , Aamzon was ripe for the fall but also note she always bounces off lows too after punishing , $172 back up to near $180 .

Lots of rumorss flying round PPO got dashed mon but made a nice dead cat bounce of $36's this am ...

CMG the usual shorts get some as longs take profs & bounces too , $MA heavily watched in the am , big day ahead nice bounce off lower congestion $338/$340 and hit top R today for short scalp above $360 . Could very well beat and pop whether a sustained pop is questionable . CME also on deck the same applys ...

 

[SpasticGramps]

This is awesome. The link contains a short movie showing the increase in high frequency trading over the last several years and how crazy it's gotten.

Presenting The "Rise Of The HFT Machine" - Visual Confirmation How SkyNet Broke The Stock Market On US Downgrade Day

Zero Hedge has not been focusing much on the topic of our broken equity markets recently because if by now, following over three years of coverage, someone is not aware just how fragmented, manipulated and largely broken the market truly is, they never will. Yet every now and then it worth reminding readers who may have stumbled on this blog recently, just how bad things are in graphic format. Our friends at Nanex, who are by far the best forensic analysts of everything that is busted with the US stock market, have completed a masterpiece analysis showing the churning (packet traffic) in the various fragmented US market venues, from the NYSE to the Nasdaq to BATS and so forth, on a daily basis beginning in January 2007 and continuing through today. While the "rise of the HFT machine" over the past 5 years, following the adoption of Reg NMS, will hardly be a surprise to most, what is stunning is the first animated confirmation of the market terminally breaking on August 5, 2011, the day the US was downgraded, an observation that first was made right here on Zero Hedge. Which begs the question: what really happened in the stock market on August 5, 2011 when the US was downgraded to AA+, when everything literally broke, who is intervening constantly in the stock market, and why are they doing so via various HFT intermediary mechanisms?

Note the insanity that begins on August 5, 2011:

 

[SpasticGramps]

I wonder what the HFT quote stuffing machines will do if Greece defaults. They are on the brink again, "crunch time", do or else time, yada yada, brinkmanship ground hog day. The tragedy of commons of the euro.

Merkel Demands that Greece Take Quick Action Der Spiegel

Patience with Greece is wearing thin in Europe. On Monday, Chancellor Merkel became just the latest EU leader to demand quick action from Athens. But talks on additional austerity measures there continue to go nowhere despite the looming threat of bankruptcy. Greek politicians, after all, must answer to their voters.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is losing her patience. It is time, she said during a joint Monday press conference with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, for Athens to finally accept the tough austerity measures being demanded as a condition for a second, €130 billion bailout package for the ailing country. Should Greece reject the demands she hinted, insolvency and an exit from the euro zone could come quickly.

"We want Greece to stay in the euro zone," Merkel told reporters in Paris. But, she then added, "I want to make clear once again that there can beno deal if the troika proposals are not implemented. They are on the table, time is of the essence. Something needs to happen quickly."

"Our Greek friends must fulfil their responsibilities," Sakorzy added. "They have no choice."

In addition to heaping pressure on Greece, Merkel and Sarkozy on Monday called for the creation of a fund into which all Greek revenues would be paid. The idea is to ensure that the country makes interest payments on its massive debt. The fund would prioritize such payments above other state expenditures.

The last bit explains what a bankroptcy is. Interest will be paid on all printed and other debt before anything else. They had a name for this kind of system along time ago.

Usury.

 

[Sam the Caveman]

Wow gramps, talk about being sucked dry, the banker vampires won't stop until there is nothing left.

If that happens and the greek people don't lynch every person that voted for it, there is something seriously wrong with humanity. How can they just sit back and allow such at thing.

 

[SpasticGramps]

If that happens and the greek people don't lynch every person that voted for it, there is something seriously wrong with humanity. How can they just sit back and allow such at thing.

Greece is having a nation wide 24 hr strike tomorrow. If it gets violent the markets aren't going to like it.

These banker fuckers will push the world into chaos to get a few more pennies. I reckon they will keep it up until they are hanging from light poles.......again......everywhere.

It's a damn shame.

 

[Madrus Rose]

You guys watching these huge earnings pops? MA & Visa , CME, CAT CMI GMCR FFIV .....all the usual suspects but the big surprise was WHR (whirlpool)

and bounces off servely flushed ones this last month SHLD NFLX FSLR CREE and other day APKT FIO and CRR today off the reset low of $91.

Insanity for BVSN 2mil floater that popped to double top at $44 today & sold off 14pts on the open ...runs for little biotechs like THLD and some making good shorts like IDIX & ACHN that are trying to pull another "INHX" mentioned before that ran from $3 and then got bought out @ $26 <G

GMCR & NFLX were good shorts today after getting toppy & fully valued but not before doing +20% ....things getting toppy out there , Financials , Trans, Industrials, Autos, Semis, Rails , Biotechs (GILD AMGN) , Restaurant safe havens YUM MCD CMG ...

And poor shorts got heads handed to them again tonight on BWLD/Buffalo Wings blow out earnings report that popped 14pts to new highs at $82 after hours ....showing the power of poultry & the humble chicken that powers the human race along with humble piggies & cows .

8bil chickens (Gallus gallus domesticus) are killed every year just in the US , 23mil/day for food ...imagine adding Chinese consumption then add the rest of the world ?

 

[Madrus Rose]

Here's some Earnings week of Feb 6th-10th , see how IRBT CSCO WFM AKAM do tomorrow .

Monday: CYOU, CNA, HCA, HUM, LAZ, L, SOHU, USAK, AGNC, APC, BMI, RATE, CSTR, PMCS, SUN, UNM, VECO, and YUM.

Tuesday: MT, BDX, BP, KO, LRN, SMG, SWI, UBS, BWLD, FORM, ONE, KFRC, LTRE, NTGR, OPEN, PNRA, ULTI, VCLK, DIS, and WU.

Wednesday: AGU, AKAM, CTSH, CRIS, CVS, LVLT, RVSN, RAI, S, WYN, BMR, CALD, CSCO, IRBT, NWSA, PRU, SCSS, V, and WFM.

Thursday: BG, CBOE, CCE, DNKN, KKR, PEP, SIRI, TRI, ATVI, EXPE, HOKU, KONA, LNKD, PL, STMP, TRLG, and XL.

Friday: ALU, AB, APO, ACI, CPN, FLIR, FLO, NYX, and PPL

 

[Madrus Rose]

Best of breed nitrogen fertilizer stock "CF" (and TNH which it owns partially ) was one mentioned before , producing mainly Urea & Amm Nitrogen which takes lots of Nat Gas which is so cheap has been ripping since bottoming at $128 ....MOS & POT being more into mining opps for potash require more oil .

CF reports next week returning to all time highs here ... Goldman put a $225 target on it while POT & MOS did well off the bottom this was the play off cheap Nat Gas like some of the big industrial chemical cos LYB MMM DD etc that use lots of NG energy

Things are getting toppy out there , if they do get things up to 1360 keep your powder dry ;o)


GS & BAC making a pause here so is IBM ...but they had AAPL they could run now to kite things up while they let it languish before .

 

[Nondual]

Gramps - you're one of the few people I think that can provide some decent input on this...say Greece does not default and accepts a deal does that mean 100% they'll have to print more money to make the whole deal work? Seems like at the least some or all of the debt holders will be taking a hit. If the EU prints more money I would guess that would drive more money into the US$ at least in the short term. I do think eventually things will come around where faith in the dollar will eventually erode and there will be no 'safe' haven left but not tomorrow. Part of what I'm looking at is the short term effect on PM's. I picked up a bunch of silver when it was about $29 and missed that big dip...oh well. I'm not looking to buy now and really want to see what happens with the Greece deal to get a better idea how things will shape up down the road a bit. I'm not up on the details but I would think it would be in Greece's long term best interest to default and leave the EU.

For me if there is a Greece deal I'm interested to see how it will be structured. I have no idea what things will look like if Greece does default.

As for the market I agree with Madrus it's getting a bit toppy. I'm seeing some hot stocks getting slammed back a bit when trying to pop through highs set say a few months ago and coming out of nice consolidations. Quite a few recover and the buying kicks back in. ALLT is one of those stocks that saw strong profit taking at it's recent highs but long term it's got a nice base-on-base formation but seems it needs more consolidation as the recent base was only about 2 months long. The market is not overheated yet and think there is more room to run. Still though strong stocks are barely showing any hiccups.

STMP was one stock I hesitated on just before it started it's recent run...D'Oh! I was watching RAX too...ooops. For mining I'm liking RIC and AUY. I'm expecting AUY to hold at about $16.50 but we'll see and RIC has formed a nice consolidation to launch from and it's the leading stock in it's group. However I don't see either making much headway until PM's start to make a decent move. If all hell breaks loose and $ flow heavily into PM's both should do very well. I'd just take profits and buy silver lol.

KOG was one I was watching and waiting for a pullback. It didn't hold up where I wanted it to so passed. It's MACD is turning, it's coming out of a short term oversold condition and nice pop up on volume. I'm expecting this to make a little bit of a short term run. I know they're in the Bakken area and just read crude prices in that area are dropping because they've run out of pipeline capacity. That must suck for the producers!

 

[SpasticGramps]

Gramps - you're one of the few people I think that can provide some decent input on this...say Greece does not default and accepts a deal does that mean 100% they'll have to print more money to make the whole deal work? Seems like at the least some or all of the debt holders will be taking a hit. If the EU prints more money I would guess that would drive more money into the US$ at least in the short term. I do think eventually things will come around where faith in the dollar will eventually erode and there will be no 'safe' haven left but not tomorrow.

If they make the deal the ECB should not have to print. That's really what they are trying to avoid. Private creditors are supposed to take a voluntary 70% haircut. And austerity measures have to be agreed on. This all has to be wrapped up and signed on March 20 or Greece will miss payment and hard default.

Bloomberg is saying if they don't get the deal done this weekend Greece will default on March 20.

I believe Greece will default soon and then the ECB will print money in order to attempt to "firewall" the contagion. Not to mention the accelerating recession in the EU.

This will push the USD up. High enough to where I think the FED will print to push the USD down. No one will outprint Ben.

Wash rinse repeat.

Greek Unions are threatening "social uprising" They are striking this weekend too.

“The Greeks understand that it’s not five minutes to midnight but 30 seconds to midnight,” Luxembourg Finance Minister Luc Frieden said.