Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[Sam the Caveman]

I am long S & P this week, anyone else?

I'd say its about to roll over here. I'm expecting nothing but sideways volitility all year long probably ending with a net negative in the end. Unless we get QE3, of which there are rumors going around about it happening. I don't really see any reason for the market to be going upwards other than just speculative volatility which will bring an equal amount of downside or by QE3.

There is supposed to be some eu meeting with merkel and sarkozy this week which may spark some movement, but even towards the end of last year those little pow wows they were having weren't really having the effect on the market that they once did. It turns into a bad thing when they keep having to have meetings to "save europe", lol. They pretend like if the euro dies, every european dies with it, thats the globalists for ya. If their plans are so effective, why do they have to have so many of them?

Last week and this week have been great trading weeks for me, the price action hasn't been too schizo. That or maybe I've just gotten used to it. It does seam like a healthier action though.

 

[Madrus Rose]

Running up biotechs ACHN & IDIX hepatitis reserchers on sympathy to the INHX $26 buyout...both up another +20% today

NFLX went too far but still game on the pullback ..

Theres the two bounces for GOOG off $618 pivot this am , last one for 7pts , .... GILD and AMGN to new all highs here as they've kited up the rails & restaurant safe havens plus CAT NUE DE BA NKE FDX MON etc etc to keep this market floating here .

SINA nice 10% bounce off the oversold double bottom at $47 and BIDU starting its earnings run . AAPL still shorting from $426/28 Alt working for now as it pauses

 

[Madrus Rose]

My best pick though of the last month ---->CF (fertilizer )...maybe another 10pts up on this one to $176 for no one will want to be short this into earnings , still a ways out though . Way better than POT or MOS owns part TNH (terra nitrogen) stock is up 35pts in the last 3weeks

 

[Madrus Rose]

IDIX still runing today toped out at $13.50 ....and a little note out on the fertilizer companies on the Motely Fool especially singling out "CF" as first choice getting another upgrade today


And speaking of the best...
The flight to quality continues. Last month, I argued that investment banker RBC Capital Markets made a big mistake when it recommended buying shares of PotashCorp (NYSE: POT ) . Although PotashCorp was a fine company, its high share price and low levels of cash production told me that the stock wasn't likely to reward investors. So instead, I urged investors to consider the better bargains available at rival fertilizer makers CF Industries (NYSE: CF ) and Terra Nitrogen (NYSE: TNH ) .

Within just a couple weeks, Wall Street began coming around to the same conclusion. A few days ago, Citigroup announced it was downgrading PotashCorp (and Mosaic (NYSE: MOS ) , as well), and making CF its "top pick" in the industry instead. And now, CF has picked up yet another endorsement, as the analysts at BMO Capital Markets tell us that they, too, are upgrading CF to "outperform."

Valuation matters
Now, I've already explained why I like CF: It has one of the lowest P/E ratios in this industry, the fastest projected growth rate, and it's the only company I know of that's currently generating greater free cash flow than it reports as net income. I won't belabor these arguments -- the numbers speak for themselves:

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/01/11/this-just-in-upgrades-and-downgrades.aspx

Instead, what I want to do today is point out just two things. First, when it comes to picking chemicals stocks, CF backer BMO has a much better record than did PotashCorp fan RBC. Whereas RBC has managed to get fewer than 45% of its fertilizer recommendations right over the past four years, BMO correctly calls outperformers in this industry 67% of the time.

That said, even an analyst like BMO, which is right twice as often as it's wrong on fertilizer stocks, still is wrong some of the time. And it's about to be proven wrong again on its second ag pick of the week. While BMO recommends buying CF, it's also telling investors to buy Agrium. That's a mistake.

The case against Agrium
Valued at less than nine times earnings, Agrium appears to be the cheapest stock on this list. But Agrium is a stock that's "cheap for a reason." Two reasons, actually. First, as you can clearly see above, Agrium is the slowest grower of the bunch. Its projected 4% long-term growth rate means that most analysts think Agrium will struggle just to keep up with the rate of inflation over the next five years.

Even worse, the quality of Agrium's profits is suspect. If CF is the only fertilizer stock that currently generates more cash profit than it reports as net income, and PotashCorp, Mosaic, and Terra Nitrogen all -- to greater or lesser degrees -- generate less cash than net income, then Agrium is the only stock that actually underperforms the pack by failing to post any free cash flow whatsoever. Instead, Agrium burns cash... even as it claims $1.3 billion in annual earnings. (And has done so for two straight years.)

Foolish takeaway
When investing in the volatile commodity fertilizer sector, it's important to distinguish between cheap-looking stocks that really are bargains, and cheap-quality stocks that are cheap for good reason. The way I see it -- the way the numbers demand that I see it -- CF is a good company selling for a great price. Agrium isn't.

 

[Madrus Rose]

IDIX chart last 3 days since INHX was bought by BMY for $2.2Bil , there's a short setting up here of course but be careful .

[/img]

 

[Madrus Rose]

IDIX another push +13% up to all time highs $7 to $14.40 , pulling another INHX that did $4 to $16.50 then bought out for $26, all in two months ...incredible little biotech momos .

 

[SpasticGramps]

Brutal day for EUR/USD. S&P downgraded Italy to BBB+. France was downgraded to AA+. Austria and other were downgraded too. EUR/USD tanked to 1.26. Bond yields are blowing out. ECB had to step in and monetize Italian bonds again. It's clear that they are going to monetize the EU's insolvent countries debt even though they say they aren't.

I reckon investors are going to start freaking out as they watch the ECB's balance sheet explode as it becomes a zombie bank.

NatGas is down to 2.65 which is dragging down Chesapeake and other NatGas operators. That's going to start hurting the oil industry pretty soon. Fuck.

 

[nukklehead]

Time to short.. SDS all the way

 

[Yes4Prop215]

really pissed off i didnt pulll the trigger on netflix...went from 69 to 93 real fast...FUCK!!

 

[SpasticGramps]

LMAO. And so the central planning genuises have figured it all out. In order to stop the market from collapsing they are thinking about banning selling bonds. Fucking brilliant. Soon they will ban all selling in desperation and as this global ponzi continues to unravel in their faces.

It was funny. Several people at work were talking about putting some dry powder every month in a safe. World wide quiet bank run. Greece barely has any deposits left. Once again highlighting the crisis in confidence in international government and finanical institutions that is the root cause of this collapse.

Question. When the central planning wizards ban selling how can market participants buy?

Der Verkauf Ist Verboten - Germany Considers Ban On Sovereign Bond Sales

When back in August, Europe declared a short selling ban of any financials (here we are willing to channel Romney, and make a $10,000 bet with anyone that said ban will never be lifted), and which as we predicted has had no favorable impact on bank stocks which have since tumbled, we suggested that the next step will also be the final one: the passage of laws prohibiting sales of any kind. As usual we were partially joking. And as so often happens, we are about to be proven right again. As the FT reports in its headline article today, whose gist is simple enough, that Europe is on the verge, it is the tactically-placed final paragraph that is of particular curiosity. It says the following: "Speaking on the fringes of a start-of-year retreat of her Christian Union lawmakers in the city of Kiel, Ms Merkel said she would consider calls from her party colleagues for legislation to bar institutional investors such as insurance companies from selling bonds when ratings were downgraded, or fell below investment grade." Allow us to recopy and repaste the key part: "legislation to bar institutional investors such as insurance companies from selling bonds."

And there you have it: after everything else has failed, the state, not the politically independent, if at least on paper central bank, is about to formally enter the capital markets. And yes, first it will be a ban of selling on downgrades, then it will be a ban of selling on any downtick, and finally it will be a ban of selling anything and everything.

Naturally, since whatever is left of the market is still oddly rational, and somewhat forward looking, those who are still foolishly long the bonds will dump them asap, before this idiotic law is passed and finally crashes the European market. Correction: the market will be there, but it will consist entirely of the ECB only buying bonds, and never selling to comply with German capital control laws. Because after all Frau Merkel has elections to consider, and it will hardly be beneficial if the Dax were to be cut in half in an election year.

We do find it odd that insurance companies are being targeted - as these, just like AIG, are being completely ignored for the time being. Perhaps not much longer, and goes back to our thesis that Allianz & Generali, aka "A&G", are about to be the European equivalent of AIG, whose demise also began with that one particular rating agency downgrade.

And for anyone who thinks this form of lunacy is limited to Germany, we have news: it isn't. With Obama facing a daunting reelection task, one can be 100% certain that this and other potential laws are being contemplated (not least of which is the one-time financial asset tax as explained here back in September), and will likely take place just as soon as QE3, which SocGen believes will begin in March, fails completely to do much if anything about the market collapse, let alone the economy, the unemployment rate, and inflation.

The wonders of a centrally planned world.

 

[Madrus Rose]

Biotechs IDIX and ACHN entered round 4 since INHX buyout with IDIX adding another 13% move to near $15 and now up to $1.4bil valuation on 60mil float , ACHN around $850mil worth , not bad for companies with "zero" sales for the next 2yrs .

More pops in the aggies on friday POT MOS & especially CF & subsidiary TNH since both of these focus primarily on ammonium nitrate & urea/UAN production , cratering NatGas prices have put these companies in an extra sweet spot which makes up 50-60% of their production costs . As opposed to POT /MOS/AGU that have the more expensive costs of potash & phosphate mining added.

CF was up another $6 & TNH which is owned majority by CF up 4 ....both were perfect hedges for falling nat gas prices and upping share price . Now we have descrepancies from the USDA's grain report out thursday that caused a drop in recent rallying prices on $Corn, this one group on CNBC's Santelli report say the gov't figures could be off by 400mil bushels ....its all getting down to basics again .
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000066432

Have to eat to live!

 

[SpasticGramps]

Energy operators have really put themselves in a bind with the oversupply of NatGas and due to having bought so many leases at such high prices they are forced to drill and produce further exasperating the oversupply problem driving down the price.

The oilfield strikes me as a perfect example of the "tragedy of commons" scenario. Fields use to be profitable at 2.50, where the price was for decades before the recent explosion in the last years. Most of those fields were shallow and cheap to drill though. Fields like the Haynesville must have gas above 5 to be profitable. Not good for operators with huge lease holdings in those fields.

Speaking of tragedy of commons examples. There is always the EU. Might be time to go short financials?

Flush.

After the downgrades comes the downward spiral Financial Times

At the end of a briefly euphoric week, reality caught up.

On one level, Friday’s news was not really surprising. The French rating downgrade was a shock foretold. As was the breakdown in talks between private investors and the Greek government about a voluntary participation in a debt writedown. A proposition that was unrealistic to start with has been rejected. We should not feign surprise.

And yet both events are important because they show us the mechanism behind this year’s likely unfolding of events. The eurozone has fallen into a spiral of downgrades, falling economic output, rising debt and further downgrades. A recession has just started. Greece is now likely to default on most of its debts and may even have to leave the eurozone. When that happens, the spotlight will fall immediately on Portugal, and the next contagious round of downgrades will begin.

Europe’s insufficient rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, now also faces a downgrade because it had borrowed its ratings from its members. The way the EFSF is constructed means that its effective lending capacity will thus be reduced. Even though the French downgrade did not come as a surprise, the eurozone member states have no plan B for this, just a few stopgap emergency scenarios. They may decide to run the EFSF and its permanent successor concurrently. They may also provide the latter with a full immediate allotment of its capital. But this will create gaps in national budgets in a bad year.

By downgrading France and Austria but not Germany and the Netherlands, Standard & Poor’s also managed to shape expectations of the economic geography of an eventual break-up. A downgrading of all triple A rated members would have been much easier to deal with politically. Germany is now the only large country left with a triple A rating. The decision will make it harder for Germany to accept eurozone bonds. The ratings wedge between France and Germany will make the relationship even more unbalanced.

The immediate gut reaction to Friday’s news is also a reminder that the crisis and its resolution are taking place in parallel universes. Angela Merkel’s comment that the EU should now quickly complete the fiscal treaty is a typical example of that disconnect. No matter what happens, fiscal discipline is their answer. The crisis response fails to recognise the overarching role of the private sector in the eurozone’s internal imbalances. The conclusion of the fiscal treaty, which is the top priority of EU politics right now, is at best an irrelevant distraction. Most likely, it will enhance the trend towards pro-cyclical austerity of the kind we have seen in Greece. I also expect to see the EU administer a dose of regulatory revenge against the rating agencies. Justified or not, this too is a distraction.

I argued a while ago that the December summit was the last chance for a comprehensive systems reboot. Back then, one could have envisaged a grand bargain that combined a joint eurozone-level budget, a eurobond, a policy regime to address intra-eurozone imbalances and, in this context, also hard national budget constraints. Ms Merkel and her acolytes in Berlin and Brussels celebrated the outcome of the December 8-9 summit as a victory because it included none of the above, except the budget balancing component.

Now that she has got everything she wanted, the system continues to unravel. With each turn of the spiral, the financial and political costs of an effective resolution increase. We have moved past the point where electorates and their representatives are willing to pay the ever-rising costs of repairing the system. Last week a couple of senior parliamentarians from the ruling CDU party, whom I had previously considered voices of moderation, argued that a Greek exit from the eurozone would not be such a big deal. Expectations are changing quickly, and so is the acceptance of a violent ending.

And no, the European Central Bank’s huge liquidity boost is not going to fix the problem either. I do not want to underestimate the importance of that decision. The ECB prevented a credit crunch and deserves credit for that. The return of unlimited long-term money might even have a marginal impact on banks’ willingness to take part in government debt auctions. If we are lucky it might get us through the intense debt rollover period this spring. But a liquidity shower cannot address the underlying problem of a lack of macroeconomic adjustment.

Even economic reforms, necessary as they may be for other reasons, cannot solve this problem. This is another European illusion. We are now at a point where effective crisis resolution would require a strong central fiscal authority, with the power to tax and allocate resources across the eurozone. Of course, it will not happen.

This is the ultimate implication of last week’s ratings downgrades. We have moved beyond the point where a technical fix would work. The toolkit is exhausted.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Fallout from the weekend downgrade deluge continues.

S&P just downgraded the EFSF to AA+. Bailout fund EPIC FAIL.

S&P Downgrades EFSF From AAA To AA+, May Cut More If Sovereign Downgrades Continue

And so the latest inevitable outcome of the French downgrade from AAA has arrived, after the S&P just downgraded the EFSF, that pillar of European stability, from AAA to AA+. S&P adds: "if we were to conclude that sufficient offsetting credit enhancements are, in our opinion, not likely to be forthcoming, we would likely change the outlook to negative to mirror the negative outlooks of France and Austria. Under those circumstances we would expect to lower the ratings on the EFSF if we lowered the long-term sovereign credit ratings on the EFSF's 'AAA' or 'AA+' rated members to below 'AA+'." In other words, as everyone but Europe apparently knew, the EFSF is only as strong as the rating of its weakest member. And now the rhetoric on how AAA is not really necessary for the EFSF, begins, to be followed by AA, next A, then BBB and finally how as long as the EFSF is not D-rated all is well.

In other news the head of S&P sovereign ratings said today that a Greece default was imminent. Big surprise.

 

[Madrus Rose]

Here's the POT /Potash upgrade to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC
CIBC upgraded Potash based on valuation. Price target lowered to $60 from $65.

Finally got some toppiness in INTC SNDK & KLAC as the $SOX topping ... UPS FDX & a few of the rails CNI getting downgrade as the $TRAN and tese outperformed the S&P since oct by 15% ..

Those aggie fertilizer stocks were on fire thursday /fri even with the USDA Corn data out thurs that tanked the corn futs

 

[SpasticGramps]

"Brother can you spare me a dime?

Wait..... actually I need $1 trillion, but if you could hook me with $500 billion now I swear I'll pay you back next Tuesday after I get my check. I'm buying scratch offs and I feel the big one coming."

Eurozone crisis live: IMF launches $500bn fund-raising drive - 18 January 2012

• €1tn funding shortfall warning

Maybe they'll have a bake sale for the fund raiser!

Too bad I could never get my hands on Greek CDS.

 

[Madrus Rose]

while earnings season shark feeding frenzy is on , they won't pay much attention too much whether greece defaults or europe prints another trillion , the hyenas are at the kill & vultures beside them , lol....

After LLTC beat well XLNX & FFIV came in good last night , great guidance from XLNX and the other fiber opics rallied thru the day JDSU , CIEN FNSR JNPR & this little play NEWP thats been really telegraphing its earnings , 7days in a row green .

FFIV was almost a gimmie for earnings , squeezing up about $8 , XLNX hitting new highs should be short scalpable tomorrow on proftaking . FFIV earnings just , who knows with this one


AAPL starting its run into next tues ....that will prolly mark the top .
CF pulled back right on que after great run right from $175 tag , see chart ,

 

[Madrus Rose]

while earnings season shark feeding frenzy is on , they won't pay much attention too much whether greece defaults or europe prints another trillion , the hyenas are at the kill & vultures beside them , lol....

After LLTC beat well XLNX & FFIV came in good last night , great guidance from XLNX and the other fiber opics rallied thru the day JDSU , CIEN FNSR JNPR & this little play NEWP thats been really telegraphing its earnings , 7days in a row green .

FFIV was almost a gimmie for earnings , squeezing up about $8 , XLNX hitting new highs should be short scalpable tomorrow on proftaking . FFIV earnings just , who knows with this one


AAPL starting its run into next tues ....that will prolly mark the top .

CF pulled back right on que after great run right from $175 tag , see chart ,

Think we might see GOOG fly tomorrow ,

 

[SpasticGramps]

Facebook IPO looks to be coming next week as per the WSJ. Goldman Sachs looks to be handling it. Valuation is at a staggering $100 billion right now.

Cashing in before a Greek default maybe?

 

[SpasticGramps]

Soros going on about the ebb and flow of markets (>) and men in Davos.

Europe Defenses for Greece Too Weak, Soros Says

Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor George Soros talks about the European debt crisis. He speaks with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television's "InsideTrack" from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. (Source: Bloomberg)

 

[Nondual]

Here's some solid data some of you might be interested in. A friend emailed it this morning...

[FONT=Verdana,Arial,sans-serif]In case you don't know the Baltic Dry Index is one
of the best gauges of the health of the world economy.
It indicates the amount of shipments of basic bulk
commodities around the world. Right now it's saying
nothing is happening big time. It's more reliable than
government statistics. Watch out below![/FONT]

http://www.efinancialnews.com/story...altic-dry-shipping-rates-fall?mod=mostread-PE