Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[Dudesome]

Wow..Good news today. 358+ right now.

Copper at $3.70 Now up from $3.05 in the last 5 sessions.I went back to the website and the price for the bars they were selling stayed the same so...With $6.00 over spot It may not move unless it drops $1.00 either way or I could call them up and ask them how do they come into the price and selling it $6.00 over spot ?

I think I would own this type of stock if the management comes up with a witty answer.

what would you say about the copper downtrend for the last 2~ months? Are you basing your decisions on fundamentals purely?

 

[Nondual]

Source? I would be interested to read about how he made his decisions.

The source was Chris Manning who at the time was teaching his skills in seminars before he started a hedge fund. I have no idea how the guy made his decisions regarding what indicators he was using to key trades off of. I spent some time with Chris and he was very helpful.

 

[zenoonez]

The source was Chris Manning who at the time was teaching his skills in seminars before he started a hedge fund. I have no idea how the guy made his decisions regarding what indicators he was using to key trades off of. I spent some time with Chris and he was very helpful.

Might have to look for a source for his seminars tonight. Thanks.

 

[Nondual]

Might have to look for a source for his seminars tonight. Thanks.

Chris, at least at that time, was a technical trader only. He would use software such as TC2000 to screen for stocks meeting his criteria. That was 10 years ago and unfortunately lost track of the seminar materials and notes I took. He was pretty big into back testing historical data to fine tune new trading programs.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Fundementals are dead for the most part. The only fundementals that matter anymore is what side of the bed Bernanke woke up one and what Trichet, Merkel, and Sarkozy ate for breakfast.

Algos trade on headlines supported by technicals. Eventually fundamentals will roar back and put an end the bailout madness.

 

[Dudesome]

Fundementals are dead for the most part. The only fundementals that matter anymore is what side of the bed Bernanke woke up one and what Trichet, Merkel, and Sarkozy ate for breakfast.

Algos trade on headlines supported by technicals. Eventually fundamentals will roar back and put an end the bailout madness.

You ofcourse mean the application of fundamentals for the short term, right? Otherwise I strongly disagree

 

[Nondual]

Algos trade on headlines supported by technicals.

This has nothing to do with headlines.

 

[TNTBudSticker]

what would you say about the copper downtrend for the last 2~ months? Are you basing your decisions on fundamentals purely?

Didn't watch it for the last 2 months.I saw an ad that said Copper bullion and thought it means money.It doesn't...lol ... Just Copper bars,coins.But going further into dept,I caught a nice bottom looking at the graph..I'm not expert on Copper,I'm just waiting for new homes to be built.We have since yesterday's figure....7.9 months of supply of homes left.(last time I've looked it was at 18 months)

Fundamentals on Copper,with looking at this way,with $6.00 over spot and say,waiting for the price action to go up over spot....Copper's really over worth $9.00 a pound.Just saying.

UnFundamentally,the World let Parts of Copper all over the place and maybe trying not to cause a mass/cash hysteria by Grabbing anything that copper isn't bolt/unbolted to cash in for scraps.

Some stocks are out there that their Net sale share price is higher than their stock's price.Like an undervalue stock,or metal.

I just like the .999 numbers on the bars.

 

[Sam the Caveman]

Greek citizens soon to be "IMF'ers"

Max is saying the "writeoff" is not really a debt elimination, somehow the IMF is making a EURO slush fund to cover these "writeoffs", so now the Greeks will owe the money to the IMF. Doesn't sound like a writeoff at all, sounds like a debt transfer.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8sK9gZEUac

here is the weekly 30 min Keizer report

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsMfWsGVL_0

 

[SpasticGramps]

You ofcourse mean the application of fundamentals for the short term, right? Otherwise I strongly disagree

Yes short term.

This has nothing to do with headlines.

It's saying something to say something IMO. It strikes me as political theater since it really solves nothing. China and Brazil are going to have to play a very large part in this bailout. Developing countries bailing out deadbeat developed countries?

Eventually all of this everyone bailing out everyone else becomes not possible and it strikes me as headlines and pretending until the fundamental problems are addressed I guess.

George Osborne to block IMF cash for eurozone bail-out
British taxpayers will not help to pay for the euro bail-out, George Osborne has pledged.

The Chancellor made the promise in the Commons as he faced growing pressure from his own party to repatriate powers from Europe.

Mr Osborne said he would not allow the International Monetary Fund, which is partly bankrolled by British taxpayers, to provide money for the new euro bail-out fund.

The announcement was a fillip to Conservative backbenchers who have demanded that the Government acts to claw back powers from Brussels.

The Daily Telegraph has learnt that Tory MPs will meet next month to begin drawing up a detailed plan calling for the return of employment and social laws following the back-bench rebellion over a European referendum.

Mr Osborne told MPs: “Britain will not be putting money into the bail-out fund either directly or through the IMF.”

He ruled out IMF involvement amid indications that the international organisation may be asked to help bankroll the €1 trillion (£880 million) fund to lend money to beleaguered countries in the single currency.

“The IMF exists to support countries, it does not exist to support currencies,” Mr Osborne said. “The IMF contributing money to the eurozone bail-out fund, no; Britain contributing money to the eurozone bail-out fund, no. That is Britain’s clear position.”

Amid the uncertainty over IMF involvement in the bail-out, Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, approached the Chinese government yesterday for funds.

Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds are also expected to be asked for financial support.

Stock markets around the world rose sharply after European leaders emerged from all-night talks to announce the broad outline of a deal for the single currency.

The FTSE 100 index closed up three per cent at 5,713 and the euro hit a two-month high.

The package will involve banks writing off about half their loans to the Greek government, taxpayer support for European banks and the bail-out fund. Countries with large, unsustainable debts, such as Italy, have also set out plans to cut public spending.

Mr Osborne said the eurozone must provide “more detail over the next few weeks” about the bail-out.

David Cameron, who was due to arrive in Australia this morning for a summit with Commonwealth leaders, also welcomed the eurozone announcement but called for further detail.

“They made very good progress,” he said. “They need to keep up the momentum and work urgently to fill in the remaining details”.

However, there are growing doubts over the source of funding for the bail-out fund – and whether it is large enough. A poll of 48 leading economists found that 26 warned that €1 trillion was not enough to “stave off” worsening problems in Italy and Spain.

The IMF is underwritten by countries around the world and Britain has a total exposure of about £20 billion to the fund. There have been calls for the IMF to double in size to allow it to tackle the global economic turmoil.

So say if Saudi Arabia, China, and Brazil buy junk paper that the UK won't even buy this one time. Who is going to do it for Italy and Spain and on and on? This package was sold as the comprehensive plan for the euro-crisis and it's not even close.

The German central bank even publicly disapproved.

Eurozone bail-out: holes emerge in the 'grand solution’ to solve EU debt crisis

Hours after an all-night summit of euro governments ended, flaws began to emerge in a package that was billed as a “grand and comprehensive” solution to the European debt crisis.

The concerns were led by Germany’s powerful central bank, which expressed fears that a plan to leverage a €440 billion eurozone rescue fund to amass a “fire power” of €1 trillion, or £880 billion, resembled the risky finance methods that triggered the crisis in 2008.

EU leaders are expected to sanction the establishment of a so-called special purpose investment vehicle, or SPIV, to be set up in the coming weeks. It is aimed at attracting investment from countries such as China and Brazil.

Jens Weidmann, the president of the Bundesbank and a member of the European Central Bank, sounded the alarm over the plan to “leverage” the fund by a factor of four to five times without putting any new money into the pot.

He warned that the scheme could be hit by market turbulence with taxpayers left holding the bill for risky investments in Italian and Spanish bonds.

“It is tied to higher risks of losses and to increased sharing of risks,” said Mr Weidmann. “The way they are constructed, the leveraging instruments are not too different from those which were partly responsible for creating the crisis, because they concealed risks.”

Bill Gross, the founder of Pimco, the world’s largest bond fund, said the eurozone rescue would be a temporary fix for markets and that the fund could pose a high-risk for investors.

“No bazooka but should stabilize markets for now,” he messaged on the Twitter site yesterday. “Watch out if the plan is a giant SIV (structured investment vehicle) with levered risk.”

The plan to increase the European Financial and Stability Facility to €1  trillion on paper was attacked by economists as not enough to “stave off” worsening debt problems in Italy and Spain.

In a survey of economists, 26 of 48 thought the firepower was not enough. A plan for a €2 trillion fund was shelved after German and French opposition.

“It is tied to higher risks of losses and to increased sharing of risks,” said Mr Weidmann. “The way they are constructed, the leveraging instruments are not too different from those which were partly responsible for creating the crisis, because they concealed risks.”

Bill Gross, the founder of Pimco, the world’s largest bond fund, said the eurozone rescue would be a temporary fix for markets and that the fund could pose a high-risk for investors.

“No bazooka but should stabilize markets for now,” he messaged on the Twitter site yesterday. “Watch out if the plan is a giant SIV (structured investment vehicle) with levered risk.”
The plan to increase the European Financial and Stability Facility to €1  trillion on paper was attacked by economists as not enough to “stave off” worsening debt problems in Italy and Spain.
In a survey of economists, 26 of 48 thought the firepower was not enough. A plan for a €2 trillion fund was shelved after German and French opposition.

Doubts also emerged over the lack of detail on a proposal to let Greece help pay its rapidly mounting debt burden by negotiating a voluntary “haircut” that would allow it to write off about half of its debts.

Under the deal, private sector banks agreed to start negotiations on a nominal 50 per cent cut in bond investments to reduce Greece’s debt burden by €100  billion, cutting its debts to 120 per cent of GDP by 2020, from 160 per cent now.

At the same time, the eurozone will offer “credit enhancements” or sweeteners to the private sector of €30 billion.

Senior EU officials were left admitting that there was no agreement on how the deal would translate into a reduction in the Greek debt.

So Bill says this should stabilize things "for now." Until the next big headline risks off the market.

If we get anything like what happened after TARP we are going down medium term until the ECB prints IMO.

The setup is of course different, but we didn't start rallying back until we monetized in 2008.

 

[zor]

It's saying something to say something IMO. It strikes me as political theater since it really solves nothing.

Political theatre is how i view it as well. This does factor into the technicals imo as the game being played behind the scenes of the theatre is often displayed on the price graph.

On another note, regarding seminars and gurus, etc. Be skeptical of anyone that would ever sell or teach you there system of making money.

There is nothing new today even wiht the high percentage of algo's trading away, there are still people with emotions controlling those joysticks and geeking out with indicators and indicators of indicators.

If you guys wanna learn technical stuff, read stuff like robert miner, hurst, livermore, richard dennis, etc etc. Play some poker. Yes, poker. at a certain trading firm i know, poker tournaments are held to the public. All traders are encouraged and trained to play for a reason. If you can consistently win in poker, you have a good chance of being a succesful trader. If you've never played poker, chances are you will see why they are so simlar after you've tried trading.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Political theatre is how i view it as well. This does factor into the technicals imo as the game being played behind the scenes of the theatre is often displayed on the price graph.

Yes, that's what I was trying to say. Theater and technicals are driving the markets.

 

[Dudesome]

Political theatre is how i view it as well. This does factor into the technicals imo as the game being played behind the scenes of the theatre is often displayed on the price graph.

On another note, regarding seminars and gurus, etc. Be skeptical of anyone that would ever sell or teach you there system of making money.

There is nothing new today even wiht the high percentage of algo's trading away, there are still people with emotions controlling those joysticks and geeking out with indicators and indicators of indicators.

If you guys wanna learn technical stuff, read stuff like robert miner, hurst, livermore, richard dennis, etc etc. Play some poker. Yes, poker. at a certain trading firm i know, poker tournaments are held to the public. All traders are encouraged and trained to play for a reason. If you can consistently win in poker, you have a good chance of being a succesful trader. If you've never played poker, chances are you will see why they are so simlar after you've tried trading.

1st: Imo, the goverment interventions do wreck technicals at many stocks, but there are some commodities that are too supressed and still can be analysed technically. That is because the volume corresponds well anyway.
Say they change the margin requirements for gold all the sudden(as they always do) will it make any impact on the market? Ofcourse!
Now can the technicals be applied? Ofcourse! Because all the fundamentals for gold are already in the chart. The government makes their interventions based on their fundamental decisions too.

But in case where the stocks are run by government machines the technicals shouldnt be applied, I agree on that.

As for political theatre, it is too driven by fundamental knowledge.


Wow very nice of you to mention poker. I used to play professionally for a long time ever since the 2003 boom. I love poker and I am a big fan of heads up holdem NL. I used to own 50$s and 100$ back in the days it even helped me to start investing at some point.

As for application of poker for technicals, I will agree 100%. Poker is a game where you make decisions based on your long term thinking. The only short term decision you will make(if you are good) is the psychological state of your opponent.
It is a lot about psychology, and so are technicals!
For example you can tilt playing poker as much as you can while trading. In poker, the tilting is a much more aggressive factor, however.

 

[zor]

Chevron Q3 net income $7.8 bln vs. $3.8 bln ....

Crisis? what crisis? seems chevron is doing fine

 

[zor]

1st: Imo, the goverment interventions do wreck technicals at many stocks,

One thing to remember is that the govt interventions in the market are executed through big trading firms that use ta. The best way to intervene is to step in at key moments of TA.

It is a lot about psychology, and so are technicals!

agreed!

For example you can tilt playing poker as much as you can while trading. In poker, the tilting is a much more aggressive factor, however

The more u learn about TA and how these people play, it hink you'll change that opinion. Markets involve huge somes ofmoney. The higher the stakes, the more tilt. I would say that the market TILT IS the main driver.

 

[Dudesome]

One thing to remember is that the govt interventions in the market are executed through big trading firms that use ta. The best way to intervene is to step in at key moments of TA.


agreed!



The more u learn about TA and how these people play, it hink you'll change that opinion. Markets involve huge somes ofmoney. The higher the stakes, the more tilt. I would say that the market TILT IS the main driver.

sounds pretty much a reality. I am not a trader yet, but I am studying TA just to become a good one someday. I have had an experience with trading, and I think it is definitely something I can do, just because the feeling is right there. That feeling of straight dependence of your decisions and ROI. The only thing I was lacking at the time was TA.

I wonder if I can start trading already.... I have a good feeling that I could. The only problem is: all my exess currency goes straight to stocking on physical shit like pm/grains/cofee/cigarettes/spices etc. I am buying most those in order for these things to be used as currency once the Boom arrives and a kind of barter system kicks in.
So I'm not sure if I should really put any paper into trading right now.

...but I want to.... so much....

Maybe I will think about flipping poker roll for trading at some point...

you made me think zor....

 

[zor]

all my exess currency goes straight to stocking on physical shit like pm/grains/cofee/cigarettes/spices etc. I am buying most those in order for these things to be used as currency once the Boom arrives and a kind of barter system kicks in.

sounds like your making some trades already . kudos.

 

[Dudesome]

sounds like your making some trades already . kudos.

yet I am not able to use TA for that. And I adore TA for some reason. Such a fine skill!

 

[Nondual]

I mentioned STMP a few weeks ago and it was doing great and just keeps chugging...

 

[SpasticGramps]

Italian bonds are getting crushed. They have passed the Maginot line for Italy at 6%.

The market is still digesting this non-bailout BS. The funniest part is if Greece bondholders take a 50% haircut, but this is not a "default" then what good are CDS? If half of your debt is deemed worthless, but your are not deemed in default then WTF is a default? Kind of makes CDS worthless IMO. So if CDS are worthless then how do institutions hedge when buying bonds? They can't. So they will sell bonds. Which is what they are doing right now as Italian and Spanish bonds are getting absolutely crushed today.