wafflehouselove
Member
i guess for our business we're on a stagflation
S
socioecologist
Just keep telling yourself that our economy is growing. Do we find out that its really a recession 6 months after it starts downhill? No--we prove that we're in what's defined as a recession after 6 months goes by and we have aggregated GDP numbers.
People living in the real world know for damn sure we're in a recession--we have already been hit. Sharp economists can see it in a lot of places (different indicators than GDP, like unemployment, energy prices, spot food prices, etc.). And it doesn't take a sharp economist to see that there are few prospects for growth on the horizon (severe contractions are becoming the norm).
People living in the real world know for damn sure we're in a recession--we have already been hit. Sharp economists can see it in a lot of places (different indicators than GDP, like unemployment, energy prices, spot food prices, etc.). And it doesn't take a sharp economist to see that there are few prospects for growth on the horizon (severe contractions are becoming the norm).
S
socioecologist
Kingpiff: you stepped on a snake--it's my dissertation. On energy and the economy: it's not about running out of oil (there will be oil in the ground in Alaska forever); instead, it's about not being able to increase oil production. Alaska's oil production has been in decline since the early 80's. The US has been in decline since 1970.
The short story is that oil production roughly follows a bell curve (whether its an individual well, field, country, and--hypothesis until confirmed after a peak in oil production occurs--the world). Once its hit the peak, it starts going down, no matter what you do.
The world capitalist economy is predicated on growth--it must grow, or it begins consuming itself (recession ----> depression) via layoffs, consolidation, bailouts, increased debt, declining production, etc. Our economy requires energy to operate, and there isn't an energy source more powerful than oil (in usable energetic terms, or Energy Returned On Energy Invested (EROEI)), particularly in the transport sector (70% of all oil is used for transportation). If oil production peaks, we have less energy available (and there aren't any alternatives that can make up the short fall--bad news, but true).
Reduced energy means no growth, which leads to social upheaval--however you want to define that, but I believe it will get very ugly very fast.
Important Note: the global raw crude oil production peak occurred in 2005, and the raw crude + condensates (which includes tar sands) peaked in 2006--see below.
The short story is that oil production roughly follows a bell curve (whether its an individual well, field, country, and--hypothesis until confirmed after a peak in oil production occurs--the world). Once its hit the peak, it starts going down, no matter what you do.
The world capitalist economy is predicated on growth--it must grow, or it begins consuming itself (recession ----> depression) via layoffs, consolidation, bailouts, increased debt, declining production, etc. Our economy requires energy to operate, and there isn't an energy source more powerful than oil (in usable energetic terms, or Energy Returned On Energy Invested (EROEI)), particularly in the transport sector (70% of all oil is used for transportation). If oil production peaks, we have less energy available (and there aren't any alternatives that can make up the short fall--bad news, but true).
Reduced energy means no growth, which leads to social upheaval--however you want to define that, but I believe it will get very ugly very fast.
Important Note: the global raw crude oil production peak occurred in 2005, and the raw crude + condensates (which includes tar sands) peaked in 2006--see below.
Well...i for one am sure that this is the start of the BIG ONE..some of us here have been waiting for.
The big picture is this...nothing has been done to change the situation. No new technology is here to save us. But for instance Bushes administration has made it A LOT worse than it would have been. That scares me a bit..after all if you want a totalitarian goverment. Make the people go hungry first..
The big picture is this...nothing has been done to change the situation. No new technology is here to save us. But for instance Bushes administration has made it A LOT worse than it would have been. That scares me a bit..after all if you want a totalitarian goverment. Make the people go hungry first..
Macster2
Member
Before you all start diving from windows (LOL) perhaps you should read this
http://rightrunner.blogspot.com/2008/03/north-dakota-oil-find.html
http://rightrunner.blogspot.com/2008/03/north-dakota-oil-find.html
Macster2
Member
Special Report
The Bakken Oil Formation
While the rest of the world is still talking about Canada's oil sands, we here at Energy & Capital know there's
another oil boom about to take off... one that has the potential to eliminate all America's dependence on foreign
oil.
You see, in April of this month, the U.S. Geological Survey will release a major study on the "Bakken" formation,
in what's being hailed as the most significant find since Alberta's Pembina Cardium play in 1957.
Oil by the Billions in The Bakken
Saskatchewan is setting up to be a serious force in the Canadian oil industry. Underneath the south eastern
section of Saskatchewan is part of the Bakken formation. The entire Bakken play lies underneath south eastern
Saskatchewan, western Manitoba and North Dakota.
How much oil are we talking about here?
The U.S.G.S. has reported there's possibly 400 billion barrels of oil in the Bakken play. The area in southeastern
Saskatchewan is estimated to hold up hold up to 25 billion barrels of oil.
A few months ago, the Alberta government raised their royalty rates considerably on oil sands production. Those
royalty increases have been met with considerable resistance by producers. In other words, Saskatchewan may
turn out to be a more attractive investment for some of those companies.
With record land sales in 2007, we can expect a massive amount of investment dollars to pour into the province.
Increasing Interest in the Bakken's Production... And A Substantial Opportunity for Investors
Ever since peaking in 1970, production at U.S. oil fields has been spiraling downwards.
How far has production fallen?
As you can see in the chart below, U.S. oil production has been dropping steadily:
Looking at U.S. oil production since 2001, the picture doesn't get much better, or does it?
Obviously U.S. crude production as a whole has been falling, down to 5.1 million barrels per day in 2006, but
take a minute to see for yourself where our crude oil production is declining.
More importantly, however, note where production is increasing.
The two states that stand out the most (to me, at least) are Montana and North Dakota. I know what you're
thinking, "If oil production peaked more than thirty years ago, why are we seeing an oil boom in these two
states?"
Well, we have Bakken oil production to thank for that.
Oil Production in the Bakken
The Bakken oil play stretches across Montana, North Dakota and into Southeastern Saskatchewan. We're
talking about some potentially massive reserves of oil, too. The amount of oil in place has, most recently, been
estimated between 271 billion and 503 billion barrels of oil.
Even if we take the lower estimates, that's still a huge amount of oil, far more than the 36 billion barrels of oil
believed to be in Alaska's North Slope.
Let's just say that North Dakota oil production has been growing significantly. Crude oil production has been
strong, up to about 40 million barrels in 2006. That's roughly a 20% increase since 2004.
Although I wanted to keep the topic on the U.S. side of the Bakken play, it wouldn't feel right if I didn't briefly
mention the Canadian part of the formation.
The oil sands in Alberta are going to play a significant role in future Canadian oil production. But having said that,
remember that the Alberta oil sands are highly viscous and must be heated in order to extract the oil. The
process can become quite energy intensive.
Trust me, there's a world of a difference between the heavy oil in Alberta and the light sweet crude underneath
the Bakken play in Southeastern Saskatchewan. Now that the Alberta government are implementing oil royalties,
trying to dip into oil companies' pockets, Saskatchewan property is starting to look more attractive.
Don't be surprised to see an exodus of smaller oil companies looking to exploit the rich oil resources in the
neighboring province.
Investing in Peak Oil and the Bakken
So the question for investors hoping to get into the action is: "What do we do next?"
With an increasing interest in the Bakken oil formation, oil production from both North Dakota and Montana will
inevitably increase over the next few years, creating a substantial opportunity for investors.
Until next time,
Keith Kohl
Editor, Energy & Capital
P.S. The U.S. Geological Survey's revised reserve estimates of the Bakken is only a few weeks away from
official release. Once the news breaks, 3 companies using new, highly efficient extraction technologies are
expected to explode with profits. Learn more how you can get in as an investor first .
http://www.angelnexus.com/o/web/4866
You can view the HTML version here: The Bakken Oil Formation
Energy and Capital , Copyright © Angel Publishing LLC . All rights reserved. The content of this site may not be redistributed without the
express written consent of Angel Publishing. Individual editorials, articles and essays appearing on this site may be republished, but only with
full attribution of both the author and Energy and Capital as well as a link to www.energyandcapital.com. Your privacy is important to us -- we
will never rent or sell your e-mail or personal information. No statement or expression of opinion, or any other matter herein, directly or
indirectly, is an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities or financial instruments mentioned. While we believe the sources of
information to be reliable, we in no way represent or guarantee the accuracy of the statements made herein. Energy and Capital does not
provide individual investment counseling, act as an investment advisor, or individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or
investment. The publisher, editors and consultants of Angel Publishing may actively trade in the investments discussed in this publication. They
may have substantial positions in the securities recommended and may increase or decrease such positions without notice. Neither the
publisher nor the editors are registered investment advisors. Subscribers should not view this publication as offering personalized legal or
investment counseling. Investments recommended in this publication should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and
only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company in question.
The Bakken Oil Formation
While the rest of the world is still talking about Canada's oil sands, we here at Energy & Capital know there's
another oil boom about to take off... one that has the potential to eliminate all America's dependence on foreign
oil.
You see, in April of this month, the U.S. Geological Survey will release a major study on the "Bakken" formation,
in what's being hailed as the most significant find since Alberta's Pembina Cardium play in 1957.
Oil by the Billions in The Bakken
Saskatchewan is setting up to be a serious force in the Canadian oil industry. Underneath the south eastern
section of Saskatchewan is part of the Bakken formation. The entire Bakken play lies underneath south eastern
Saskatchewan, western Manitoba and North Dakota.
How much oil are we talking about here?
The U.S.G.S. has reported there's possibly 400 billion barrels of oil in the Bakken play. The area in southeastern
Saskatchewan is estimated to hold up hold up to 25 billion barrels of oil.
A few months ago, the Alberta government raised their royalty rates considerably on oil sands production. Those
royalty increases have been met with considerable resistance by producers. In other words, Saskatchewan may
turn out to be a more attractive investment for some of those companies.
With record land sales in 2007, we can expect a massive amount of investment dollars to pour into the province.
Increasing Interest in the Bakken's Production... And A Substantial Opportunity for Investors
Ever since peaking in 1970, production at U.S. oil fields has been spiraling downwards.
How far has production fallen?
As you can see in the chart below, U.S. oil production has been dropping steadily:
Looking at U.S. oil production since 2001, the picture doesn't get much better, or does it?
Obviously U.S. crude production as a whole has been falling, down to 5.1 million barrels per day in 2006, but
take a minute to see for yourself where our crude oil production is declining.
More importantly, however, note where production is increasing.
The two states that stand out the most (to me, at least) are Montana and North Dakota. I know what you're
thinking, "If oil production peaked more than thirty years ago, why are we seeing an oil boom in these two
states?"
Well, we have Bakken oil production to thank for that.
Oil Production in the Bakken
The Bakken oil play stretches across Montana, North Dakota and into Southeastern Saskatchewan. We're
talking about some potentially massive reserves of oil, too. The amount of oil in place has, most recently, been
estimated between 271 billion and 503 billion barrels of oil.
Even if we take the lower estimates, that's still a huge amount of oil, far more than the 36 billion barrels of oil
believed to be in Alaska's North Slope.
Let's just say that North Dakota oil production has been growing significantly. Crude oil production has been
strong, up to about 40 million barrels in 2006. That's roughly a 20% increase since 2004.
Although I wanted to keep the topic on the U.S. side of the Bakken play, it wouldn't feel right if I didn't briefly
mention the Canadian part of the formation.
The oil sands in Alberta are going to play a significant role in future Canadian oil production. But having said that,
remember that the Alberta oil sands are highly viscous and must be heated in order to extract the oil. The
process can become quite energy intensive.
Trust me, there's a world of a difference between the heavy oil in Alberta and the light sweet crude underneath
the Bakken play in Southeastern Saskatchewan. Now that the Alberta government are implementing oil royalties,
trying to dip into oil companies' pockets, Saskatchewan property is starting to look more attractive.
Don't be surprised to see an exodus of smaller oil companies looking to exploit the rich oil resources in the
neighboring province.
Investing in Peak Oil and the Bakken
So the question for investors hoping to get into the action is: "What do we do next?"
With an increasing interest in the Bakken oil formation, oil production from both North Dakota and Montana will
inevitably increase over the next few years, creating a substantial opportunity for investors.
Until next time,
Keith Kohl
Editor, Energy & Capital
P.S. The U.S. Geological Survey's revised reserve estimates of the Bakken is only a few weeks away from
official release. Once the news breaks, 3 companies using new, highly efficient extraction technologies are
expected to explode with profits. Learn more how you can get in as an investor first .
http://www.angelnexus.com/o/web/4866
You can view the HTML version here: The Bakken Oil Formation
Energy and Capital , Copyright © Angel Publishing LLC . All rights reserved. The content of this site may not be redistributed without the
express written consent of Angel Publishing. Individual editorials, articles and essays appearing on this site may be republished, but only with
full attribution of both the author and Energy and Capital as well as a link to www.energyandcapital.com. Your privacy is important to us -- we
will never rent or sell your e-mail or personal information. No statement or expression of opinion, or any other matter herein, directly or
indirectly, is an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities or financial instruments mentioned. While we believe the sources of
information to be reliable, we in no way represent or guarantee the accuracy of the statements made herein. Energy and Capital does not
provide individual investment counseling, act as an investment advisor, or individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or
investment. The publisher, editors and consultants of Angel Publishing may actively trade in the investments discussed in this publication. They
may have substantial positions in the securities recommended and may increase or decrease such positions without notice. Neither the
publisher nor the editors are registered investment advisors. Subscribers should not view this publication as offering personalized legal or
investment counseling. Investments recommended in this publication should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and
only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company in question.
Macster2
Member
With this we can tell China and opec to BITE ME
Only Saudi Arabia has bigger reserves than this find and add in the Alberta Tar sands which had the second largest reserves I'm very comfortable in saying oil in north america is not a problem for the next 1 hundred years
Only Saudi Arabia has bigger reserves than this find and add in the Alberta Tar sands which had the second largest reserves I'm very comfortable in saying oil in north america is not a problem for the next 1 hundred years
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G
Guest
socioecologist said:Kingpiff: you stepped on a snake--it's my dissertation. On energy and the economy: it's not about running out of oil (there will be oil in the ground in Alaska forever); instead, it's about not being able to increase oil production. Alaska's oil production has been in decline since the early 80's. The US has been in decline since 1970.
The short story is that oil production roughly follows a bell curve (whether its an individual well, field, country, and--hypothesis until confirmed after a peak in oil production occurs--the world). Once its hit the peak, it starts going down, no matter what you do.
The world capitalist economy is predicated on growth--it must grow, or it begins consuming itself (recession ----> depression) via layoffs, consolidation, bailouts, increased debt, declining production, etc. Our economy requires energy to operate, and there isn't an energy source more powerful than oil (in usable energetic terms, or Energy Returned On Energy Invested (EROEI)), particularly in the transport sector (70% of all oil is used for transportation). If oil production peaks, we have less energy available (and there aren't any alternatives that can make up the short fall--bad news, but true).
Reduced energy means no growth, which leads to social upheaval--however you want to define that, but I believe it will get very ugly very fast.
Important Note: the global raw crude oil production peak occurred in 2005, and the raw crude + condensates (which includes tar sands) peaked in 2006--see below.
Why do we need to increase oil supply if we have oil in Alaska to last forever?
We have been in a recession since the summer of 07 and it is not because of oil... it has nothing to do with oil. It is the lack of following the constitution. Our economy is built on fake credit and it is coming to a end. Our government is so big and has all these unneeded unConstitutional programs that cost billions and billions (example: department of education...) We have over 700 military bases around the world costing billions if not trillions. The real problem is our government has no money in fact we are in debt over 9 trillion and with entitlements its over 70 trillion!! Then we got the federal reserve system who tries to come to the rescue by printing money, bailing out banks and the stock market, when all there really doing is making the situation worse by devaluing our currency(inflation), the money is counterfeit. So now we have no manufacturing jobs, we can't export anything. Our currency is now getting turned down by more and more countries so we can't trade with many. Housing market crashed, credit market crashed, major loss of jobs,never ending wars, in huuuuggge debt...... Next the stock market will crash, once the federal reserve stops delaying and making the bubble bigger by bailing them out. The problem is BIG GOVERNMENT & BIG BUSINESS WORKING TOGETHER and it looks like they are going to be together for at least another 4 years with Clinton, Obama, or McCain.
la resistance
Member
KINGPIFF said:
The oil in Alaska is reserved mostly because of military necessity, if we were to get cut off from oil by OPEC our military could lose its mobility
KINGPIFF said:
I agree 100%!!! Our govt. is toooooo big!!!!
Energy is a major factor to this recession though. Look at the cost of gas at the pump for example. on average it's around $3.60 per gallon and when you fill your car up it can cost anywere from $50.00-$100.00. This is costing the average consumer who hasn't gotten a raise lately hundreds of dollars extra a month. With the extra expense of fuel and heating oil the average person doesn't have the surplus cash to buy frivalous (sp) products anymore which will hurt the overall economy in the long run.
We need to become less dependent on foreign oil and start drilling for our own oil not only in alaska, but off of our coasts too. Isn't China drilling off the coast of Florida right now??? Why aren't we????
Another factor is we need to build more new refineries. every year in California we get price hikes because of refineries changing to our summer blend of fuel making the supply go down for a month or 2 and the prices going up.
What about the high cost of electrcity??? IMHO I feel we should build nuclear power plants. I have a few friends that are nuclear engineers for GE and they build nuclear plants all around the world. They say that nuclear is the safest most inexpensive way to produce electricty in the world.
If we don't start using our own natural resources and technology we will soon become a third world country.
I'm all for saving the environment, but I feel that the environmentalists movement is tieing our hands and strangling our country.
SMP
S
socioecologist
Why is the federal government running a budget deficit every year? They are trying to stimulate the economy, mostly through defense spending. Why do we spend so much on "defense" and military bases throughout the world? Why do we have an ongoing presence in the middle east? Ask Jimmy Carter and every US president since. Oil is the unspoken driver of the modern world. We cannot live like we do without it.
Be careful when you say "there's a 100 years of oil left in Alaska"--do you mean there will be oil in the ground in AK in 100 years, or that there is enough oil in Alaska to increase oil production in the US for 100 years? I know you mean the latter, and you should know that's impossible.
Oil production is what's important. The US peaked in its production in 1970-71 and quickly became a net importer of oil. The slight dogleg out after the first peak is due to oil production in Alaska, but notice that Alaska's production has been falling for about 20 years now.
That means the US couldn't keep up with its own demand and had to get oil from other countries. So what happens when the countries that export to us can't meet global consumption demands? Exactly what's going on now. If you are interested, check out:
http://theoildrum.com
Be careful when you say "there's a 100 years of oil left in Alaska"--do you mean there will be oil in the ground in AK in 100 years, or that there is enough oil in Alaska to increase oil production in the US for 100 years? I know you mean the latter, and you should know that's impossible.
Oil production is what's important. The US peaked in its production in 1970-71 and quickly became a net importer of oil. The slight dogleg out after the first peak is due to oil production in Alaska, but notice that Alaska's production has been falling for about 20 years now.
That means the US couldn't keep up with its own demand and had to get oil from other countries. So what happens when the countries that export to us can't meet global consumption demands? Exactly what's going on now. If you are interested, check out:
http://theoildrum.com
Bud Meister
Member
During your life time there will be good times and bad times. Bad times are always hard but the best time to face it is when you are young. It would be much worse if you were in your late 40's early 50's with kids in college and a huge house note and not many years left to recover from a major lay off.
Have you considered joining the National Guard? They now offer a $20,000 cash bonis and they have a student loan repayment deal too so you could keep the bonis, still get your pay check from drill and the government pays your student loans back. You can get them to pay for another degree as well.
Something to consider anyway. I have served both active duty and in the Guard for 28 years now and still serving. The military payed for 2 B.S. degrees and part of a masters degree for me and now I will get more money when I retire from the Guard than the retirement I will get from my regular job.
Have you considered joining the National Guard? They now offer a $20,000 cash bonis and they have a student loan repayment deal too so you could keep the bonis, still get your pay check from drill and the government pays your student loans back. You can get them to pay for another degree as well.
Something to consider anyway. I have served both active duty and in the Guard for 28 years now and still serving. The military payed for 2 B.S. degrees and part of a masters degree for me and now I will get more money when I retire from the Guard than the retirement I will get from my regular job.
G
Guest
SMP said:
Yea the cost of gas is outrageous but the reason it is so high is because of our own government, they are the problem. Inflation has put the U.S. dollar to a all time low, which means prices must be at a all time high. Like Ron Paul said we are in a Inflationary Depression and a Global Depression and it is going to be devastating, unless we change what the role of government should be. Thats a hard mission because it is controlled by these rich communist bastards. America is owned and we are a slave to them. Only way to change this would be something similar to the French revolution.
SMP said:
I believe the same thing. When the economy finally hits rock bottom your going to see Obama or some asshole have a conference saying how we need to make a new currency to fix the economy, when what they really are doing is making the North American Union behind our back. Greedy elite bastards.
Americans you don't know how easy you have it with gas/petrol prices.It's £1.09 a litre here.One gallon is 3.8 litres so that's 4.142 British pounds to the gallon times the conversion rate which today is 1.97= $8.15 a gallon
things are looking rough over there though.My sister has her detached house and land up for sale at $220,000 with no bites and the same house here would be worth probably £300,000 or $600,000.
there's more to come I think,should be an interesting few years
things are looking rough over there though.My sister has her detached house and land up for sale at $220,000 with no bites and the same house here would be worth probably £300,000 or $600,000.
there's more to come I think,should be an interesting few years
C
Chamba
Yup the family collectively has around 400 acres. And enough guns and ammo to defend it all if it comes to that..
and don't forget to dig 20 or 30 bomb shelters!...get a pack of 50 trained attack dogs and a Sherman tank and you should be right as rain!
This talk of the recession is scaring the fuck out of me.
The reason is I'm a few years out of college...with 25,000 in debt.
why worry?....the people who should worry are those you owe the money to
all the more reason you guys should seriously look at Ralph Nader
and someone's got to explain to me why you voted for that asshole Bush in the first place
if you and the few thousand others didn't vote for Nadar, then Gore, not Bush would not of been elected.....when you think about it , all those greenie wankers who voted (aka protested uselessly at the ballot box) for Nadar, are indirectly responsible for the deaths in Iraq
have you noticed how Nadar got on the ballot, but Paul will not...lol..I wonder why?
there's a 100 years of oil left in Alaska
if there's plenty of oil around for 100 years, then why haven't there been hardly any new refineries built in the past 20 years?
If we don't start using our own natural resources and technology we will soon become a third world country.
the alternative is simply to invade countries with natural resources!
now I will get more money when I retire from the Guard than the retirement I will get from my regular job.
many people fail to see that most Governments are laden down with debt and will not have the money to pay for pensions or the money you get won't be enough to buy enough groceries to live on......
corporations will take over from privately owning the Government to openly running it...gawd 'elp us!..at least a polititian has a 4 or 8 years lifespan, the reptiles who run corporations have no morals and can't be voted out..
yet it looks likely this biggest spender(obama) will probably win.
check out the combined debts incurred by last 3 Republican Presidents!...(how many trillion?)..fiscal responsibility is not something the GOP can brag about, that's for sure.......
and don't forget to dig 20 or 30 bomb shelters!...get a pack of 50 trained attack dogs and a Sherman tank and you should be right as rain!
This talk of the recession is scaring the fuck out of me.
The reason is I'm a few years out of college...with 25,000 in debt.
why worry?....the people who should worry are those you owe the money to
all the more reason you guys should seriously look at Ralph Nader
and someone's got to explain to me why you voted for that asshole Bush in the first place
if you and the few thousand others didn't vote for Nadar, then Gore, not Bush would not of been elected.....when you think about it , all those greenie wankers who voted (aka protested uselessly at the ballot box) for Nadar, are indirectly responsible for the deaths in Iraq
have you noticed how Nadar got on the ballot, but Paul will not...lol..I wonder why?
there's a 100 years of oil left in Alaska
if there's plenty of oil around for 100 years, then why haven't there been hardly any new refineries built in the past 20 years?
If we don't start using our own natural resources and technology we will soon become a third world country.
the alternative is simply to invade countries with natural resources!
now I will get more money when I retire from the Guard than the retirement I will get from my regular job.
many people fail to see that most Governments are laden down with debt and will not have the money to pay for pensions or the money you get won't be enough to buy enough groceries to live on......
corporations will take over from privately owning the Government to openly running it...gawd 'elp us!..at least a polititian has a 4 or 8 years lifespan, the reptiles who run corporations have no morals and can't be voted out..
yet it looks likely this biggest spender(obama) will probably win.
check out the combined debts incurred by last 3 Republican Presidents!...(how many trillion?)..fiscal responsibility is not something the GOP can brag about, that's for sure.......
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