What is your assessment of the current economy?

[MedFaced]

I lived in Calif. about 40 years and remember the winters as normal wet etc. including San Diego - but only starting when the rains start.

I was also there for the fire in 2003. I didn't want to go to work because I lived on the coast and the air inland was thick with smoke for about a week.

I’m close to the foothills leading to the 91 in south Orange County. I’ve literally driven to work with the both sides of the road on fire. It happens that fast. I remember maybe around 2006ish the Sand Canyon area lit up and we watched from the second floor of our corporate office as Foothill Ranch glowed reddish orange. Work let us out early because it looked like it was snowing from ash and the air quality was shite. So my buds and I drove to a spot with beers in hand and watched the choppers come and pull water from one of the lakes here. The air was heavy and nasty, ash was getting into everything, but it was something of awe to witness. Drank beer, chain smoked cigs, watch the choppers do their thing, while joking about how stupid we’d look dying in the fire we could drive away from.

 

[White Beard]

I don’t think for a second that much of this is accidental (although opportunism has played and will continue to play a part): I’m not joking when I say that the Koch class has had enough of having to listen to “voters” and having to put up with objections to and public scrutiny of their plans and intentions. Having ruled from the shadows, they seem to be angered and frustrated by the charade involved, and are willing to sell the US out if that’s what it takes to be the aristocrats they believe themselves to be: philosopher-kings in the saddle where they belong, the nation, the people, between their knees where they belong.

Because of happenstance, they got much closer to their goal sooner than they expected, suffered setbacks, then lunged at the prize - which set them up for the biggest setback so far, which was the ‘18 GOP losses in states and the house. Had it gone the other way, the GOP would have kept control of the entire government, and they would have gained enough GOP governors and state legislatures to ratify and sign a new constitution without anyone outside the plot actually seeing it. They could have had Moscow Mitch eulogize the rubber-stamp constitutional convention, but even if they have to do it under cover of chaos, they’ll certainly do it if they can get it done.

Trump fulfills the GOP requirements for a GOP president: he’s not a thinker, or a leader, but he can and will sign his name on commend. I figure that’s the bones of the deal he has with the GOP: he signs what they give him, and he can do whatever he comes up with. It’s only temporary, after all - just until they can get the thing run thru the system, which I must say McConnell has very well greased by now...when he chooses to let it run. Once the new order is in place, it’ll be too late to do anything peaceful about it, and between the patriot-militia movement, Blackwater and siblings, and active military who choose to stand down or not, it ought to be a right fucking mess.

If it comes to this, it will be a turning point such as few (if any) in memory have ever reached. It will be a struggle between different kinds of people who want different, and incompatible, functional realities. The real shame of that is that at most one can survive.

Yes, still on the subject of the economy. The economy structures us as a nation far more tightly that any customs or beliefs. If something is not economically feasible it will only come about through sacrifice. If something is economically inevitable, it can only be stopped by an overweighted sacrifice. This is why men once swore on “ their lives, their fortunes, their sacred honor”.

In the US we may be uniquely positioned to test out moral calculus such as that, but we’re hardly alone: many movements during the last century have put forward social theories, political ideas, economic imaginings, when what all of them were about, and what kept them together was a shared belief that they should be left alone to run their own affairs instead of being fucked with by everybody who saw an extra dollar in dicking them.

Looked at this way, so-called left and right want the same result.

The problem is how we frame economics. The frame we use I like to call “Stole It Fair ‘n’ Square”: Someone had it. They gave it up. I have it now. I get to keep it.

So we measure the piles, and no matter what our philosophy, the bigger piles get more attention. A potentially brutal way of counting social coup, but is it any way to keep track of resources and make sure the important things get done? Corporations and their Koch-class owners believe they should be *paid*, not taxed, for all the questionable benefits they bring, but in what way does that further society?

Or will we persist in the belief that the worst of people, for the worst of reasons, will produce the greatest good for all - against ALL evidence to the contrary?

 

[Brother Nature]

The US economy has been skewed since they chose guns over butter. Almost the opposite of a Robin Hood situation, it's the rich stealing from the poor and getting away with it. Sadly, most of the world is reliant on the US economy and has followed this model, the 'bubble' is definitely made of multiple bubbles across the world, reliant on the one big one, and that's due to burst anytime. No worries though, the Kingdom of China will be there to take America's place as that's been their game plan all along. Slow and steady winds the race, not a 'roided up Texan...

 

[h.h.]

I’m close to the foothills leading to the 91 in south Orange County. I’ve literally driven to work with the both sides of the road on fire. It happens that fast. I remember maybe around 2006ish the Sand Canyon area lit up and we watched from the second floor of our corporate office as Foothill Ranch glowed reddish orange. Work let us out early because it looked like it was snowing from ash and the air quality was shite. So my buds and I drove to a spot with beers in hand and watched the choppers come and pull water from one of the lakes here. The air was heavy and nasty, ash was getting into everything, but it was something of awe to witness. Drank beer, chain smoked cigs, watch the choppers do their thing, while joking about how stupid we’d look dying in the fire we could drive away from.

Holy Jim’s.

 

[h.h.]

The US economy has been skewed since they chose guns over butter. Almost the opposite of a Robin Hood situation, it's the rich stealing from the poor and getting away with it. Sadly, most of the world is reliant on the US economy and has followed this model, the 'bubble' is definitely made of multiple bubbles across the world, reliant on the one big one, and that's due to burst anytime. No worries though, the Kingdom of China will be there to take America's place as that's been their game plan all along. Slow and steady winds the race, not a 'roided up Texan...

Robin Hood was a poacher. The Kings Forest was protected BLM land.

 

[h.h.]

I don’t think for a second that much of this is accidental (although opportunism has played and will continue to play a part): I’m not joking when I say that the Koch class has had enough of having to listen to “voters” and having to put up with objections to and public scrutiny of their plans and intentions. Having ruled from the shadows, they seem to be angered and frustrated by the charade involved, and are willing to sell the US out if that’s what it takes to be the aristocrats they believe themselves to be: philosopher-kings in the saddle where they belong, the nation, the people, between their knees where they belong.

Because of happenstance, they got much closer to their goal sooner than they expected, suffered setbacks, then lunged at the prize - which set them up for the biggest setback so far, which was the ‘18 GOP losses in states and the house. Had it gone the other way, the GOP would have kept control of the entire government, and they would have gained enough GOP governors and state legislatures to ratify and sign a new constitution without anyone outside the plot actually seeing it. They could have had Moscow Mitch eulogize the rubber-stamp constitutional convention, but even if they have to do it under cover of chaos, they’ll certainly do it if they can get it done.

Trump fulfills the GOP requirements for a GOP president: he’s not a thinker, or a leader, but he can and will sign his name on commend. I figure that’s the bones of the deal he has with the GOP: he signs what they give him, and he can do whatever he comes up with. It’s only temporary, after all - just until they can get the thing run thru the system, which I must say McConnell has very well greased by now...when he chooses to let it run. Once the new order is in place, it’ll be too late to do anything peaceful about it, and between the patriot-militia movement, Blackwater and siblings, and active military who choose to stand down or not, it ought to be a right fucking mess.

If it comes to this, it will be a turning point such as few (if any) in memory have ever reached. It will be a struggle between different kinds of people who want different, and incompatible, functional realities. The real shame of that is that at most one can survive.

Yes, still on the subject of the economy. The economy structures us as a nation far more tightly that any customs or beliefs. If something is not economically feasible it will only come about through sacrifice. If something is economically inevitable, it can only be stopped by an overweighted sacrifice. This is why men once swore on “ their lives, their fortunes, their sacred honor”.

In the US we may be uniquely positioned to test out moral calculus such as that, but we’re hardly alone: many movements during the last century have put forward social theories, political ideas, economic imaginings, when what all of them were about, and what kept them together was a shared belief that they should be left alone to run their own affairs instead of being fucked with by everybody who saw an extra dollar in dicking them.

Looked at this way, so-called left and right want the same result.

The problem is how we frame economics. The frame we use I like to call “Stole It Fair ‘n’ Square”: Someone had it. They gave it up. I have it now. I get to keep it.

So we measure the piles, and no matter what our philosophy, the bigger piles get more attention. A potentially brutal way of counting social coup, but is it any way to keep track of resources and make sure the important things get done? Corporations and their Koch-class owners believe they should be *paid*, not taxed, for all the questionable benefits they bring, but in what way does that further society?

Or will we persist in the belief that the worst of people, for the worst of reasons, will produce the greatest good for all - against ALL evidence to the contrary?

These people are globalists. Make money worldwide. America is just another customer. Albeit a very demanding one. A pain in their ass.
Trump claims to be a nationalist.
Another lie. He’s a globalist.

 

[Gry]

I don’t think for a second that much of this is accidental (although opportunism has played and will continue to play a part): I’m not joking when I say that the Koch class has had enough of having to listen to “voters” and having to put up with objections to and public scrutiny of their plans and intentions. Having ruled from the shadows, they seem to be angered and frustrated by the charade involved, and are willing to sell the US out if that’s what it takes to be the aristocrats they believe themselves to be: philosopher-kings in the saddle where they belong, the nation, the people, between their knees where they belong.

Because of happenstance, they got much closer to their goal sooner than they expected, suffered setbacks, then lunged at the prize - which set them up for the biggest setback so far, which was the ‘18 GOP losses in states and the house. Had it gone the other way, the GOP would have kept control of the entire government, and they would have gained enough GOP governors and state legislatures to ratify and sign a new constitution without anyone outside the plot actually seeing it. They could have had Moscow Mitch eulogize the rubber-stamp constitutional convention, but even if they have to do it under cover of chaos, they’ll certainly do it if they can get it done.

Trump fulfills the GOP requirements for a GOP president: he’s not a thinker, or a leader, but he can and will sign his name on commend. I figure that’s the bones of the deal he has with the GOP: he signs what they give him, and he can do whatever he comes up with. It’s only temporary, after all - just until they can get the thing run thru the system, which I must say McConnell has very well greased by now...when he chooses to let it run. Once the new order is in place, it’ll be too late to do anything peaceful about it, and between the patriot-militia movement, Blackwater and siblings, and active military who choose to stand down or not, it ought to be a right fucking mess.

If it comes to this, it will be a turning point such as few (if any) in memory have ever reached. It will be a struggle between different kinds of people who want different, and incompatible, functional realities. The real shame of that is that at most one can survive.

Yes, still on the subject of the economy. The economy structures us as a nation far more tightly that any customs or beliefs. If something is not economically feasible it will only come about through sacrifice. If something is economically inevitable, it can only be stopped by an overweighted sacrifice. This is why men once swore on “ their lives, their fortunes, their sacred honor”.

In the US we may be uniquely positioned to test out moral calculus such as that, but we’re hardly alone: many movements during the last century have put forward social theories, political ideas, economic imaginings, when what all of them were about, and what kept them together was a shared belief that they should be left alone to run their own affairs instead of being fucked with by everybody who saw an extra dollar in dicking them.

Looked at this way, so-called left and right want the same result.

The problem is how we frame economics. The frame we use I like to call “Stole It Fair ‘n’ Square”: Someone had it. They gave it up. I have it now. I get to keep it.

So we measure the piles, and no matter what our philosophy, the bigger piles get more attention. A potentially brutal way of counting social coup, but is it any way to keep track of resources and make sure the important things get done? Corporations and their Koch-class owners believe they should be *paid*, not taxed, for all the questionable benefits they bring, but in what way does that further society?

Or will we persist in the belief that the worst of people, for the worst of reasons, will produce the greatest good for all - against ALL evidence to the contrary?

In awe of and humbled by this post.

 

[h.h.]

Meanwhile ...

https://fox5sandiego.com/2019/10/19/crews-knock-down-fire-started-by-fallen-power-line/

ANOTHER California fire started by a downed power line.

Can any Calif. members tell us what's going on with your home (fire) insurance ?


I don't have time to keep track of all the fire starts in California, but these are 2 of the main reasons -
* fallen power lines
* fires escaped from homeless encampments.

https://www.foxla.com/news/celebrating-70-years-of-kttv-the-1982-anaheim-fire

I watched this fire in 1982. Actually helped pulling firehose. Out of harms way of course.
All the apartments with shake roofs burned to the ground. All those that didn’t were saved. I saw devastation with only slightly scorched buildings standing singularly.
Would have made a good Owens Corning commercial.
The result was a change in building codes.
A prime example of why we need all those regulations.

First the power lines sparked. (Santa Anas)
Second the trees weren’t trimmed.
Third shake roofs. Kindling in dry weather.

Those issues are addressed in Oceanside.
Problem is nothing is retroactive.
There is only one small area where that fire could have occurred. Power lines and possibly homeless. The rest is sprawling houses with underground service.

Well regulated housing doesn’t burn.
California has a lot of unregulated junk from the past real estate booms that does.
Most regulations aren’t retroactive.
Stuff is grandfathered in.
Utilities need to be upgraded.
Infrastructure and I don’t mean pipelines headed to export.

 

[St. Phatty]

Oregon is the most stupidly managed culture I have ever witnessed.

However part of that may be related to a general decline in the US.

One part of that iceberg that is visible was Boeing's choice in the 1990's to de-prioritize passenger safety.

Oregon follows down that track terribly well. e.g. there is a dangerous intersection, the city re-builds it, and afterwards it's MORE dangerous - if you talk to the check-out clerks at the 2 large hardware stores nearest to the intersection.

It is literally as if the city gets a Commission when there's a serious accident, T'bone or head-on. Of course serious accidents tend to generate $200K+ for local medical establishments, and $50K+ for local body shops & car dealerships.


Paradoxically, Pacific Power the power company does things right.

I have at least 150,000 pounds of dry wood on the 1 acre lot right next to my house. Boy am I scared that will burn. I set up a water tank on it (even though it belongs to a neighbor) so I can have a hose filled with water (gravity feed), because I know that eventually that patch of land will catch fire.

In other words, a super flammable land-scape. With all above ground power lines, in the poorest county in Oregon.

Pacific Power hires contractors to come out and trim everything within 10 or 20 feet of the power line.

When it's on my land, of course I want to watch. Since I had gone to great lengths to clear all the flammable stuff, and they were about to dump 1000+ pounds of dry dead wood on my land 1 week before the beginning of fire season, I got a little upset, during the most recent tree-trimming.

Soon enough, all the wood from that trim was going to a neighbor who needs firewood.

Anyway, if Pac Power can do it, PG&E can do it.

Having seen how that trimming works up close & personal, I know PG&E can do it.

So why didn't we have any downed power lines starting fires in Oregon this last summer ?


To the PG&E managers who might get fired, these might seem like tough questions, but tough luck for them.

 

[armedoldhippy]

Robin Hood was a poacher. The Kings Forest was protected BLM land.

the king was a twit & needed an arrow in his ass. a poacher that needs/eats his kill is more honest than any king. BLM land belongs to ALL of us, just like national forest property.

 

[redlaser]

Oregon is the most stupidly managed culture I have ever witnessed.

However part of that may be related to a general decline in the US.

One part of that iceberg that is visible was Boeing's choice in the 1990's to de-prioritize passenger safety.

Oregon follows down that track terribly well. e.g. there is a dangerous intersection, the city re-builds it, and afterwards it's MORE dangerous - if you talk to the check-out clerks at the 2 large hardware stores nearest to the intersection.

It is literally as if the city gets a Commission when there's a serious accident, T'bone or head-on. Of course serious accidents tend to generate $200K+ for local medical establishments, and $50K+ for local body shops & car dealerships.


Paradoxically, Pacific Power the power company does things right.

I have at least 150,000 pounds of dry wood on the 1 acre lot right next to my house. Boy am I scared that will burn. I set up a water tank on it (even though it belongs to a neighbor) so I can have a hose filled with water (gravity feed), because I know that eventually that patch of land will catch fire.

In other words, a super flammable land-scape. With all above ground power lines, in the poorest county in Oregon.

Pacific Power hires contractors to come out and trim everything within 10 or 20 feet of the power line.

When it's on my land, of course I want to watch. Since I had gone to great lengths to clear all the flammable stuff, and they were about to dump 1000+ pounds of dry dead wood on my land 1 week before the beginning of fire season, I got a little upset, during the most recent tree-trimming.

Soon enough, all the wood from that trim was going to a neighbor who needs firewood.

Anyway, if Pac Power can do it, PG&E can do it.

Having seen how that trimming works up close & personal, I know PG&E can do it.

So why didn't we have any downed power lines starting fires in Oregon this last summer ?


To the PG&E managers who might get fired, these might seem like tough questions, but tough luck for them.

PG&E chips the small stuff and leaves the larger pieces for homeowners to deal with around here. 10-20 ft logs usually. It’s usuallly Ponderosa pine, not everyone likes to burn it in wood stoves, it’s about 20% of what I burn, helps with wood that’s not all the way dry.
Our local road association has morphed into a fire prevention/road committee, using 30% of available funds to do tree trimming to ease their fears of the fire truck not showing up.
Trees were already twenty feet from road with 20 ft height clearance.

After Paradise fire they want to do more, especially on some larger unoccupied tracts of 20 and 80 acres. They want bulldozers to make firebreaks throughout heavily wooded, relatively oldish growth forest areas. Spoke to the children of the older owner of the larger property, and apparently our road committee sent a letter threatening legal action if they don’t do more to make them happy.
I’ve gotten letters from them to clear my manzanita but I’m not on the association rd., way off it but adjoining the larger vacant parcels. I like the manzanita and an overgrown look, tree and shrub wise

Bark beetles kill 20-40 Ponderosa pines, that are 120-180 ft tall yearly amongst these unoccupied parcels, we have cut up about forty in six years on our property. Some very steep terrain making it impractical to access all for removal, along with the cost to do it.

yubanet.com has section with current fire stats;

Last week new fire totals was 662 with 15,630 acres burned

Year to date total fires was 43,662 with 4,465,563 acres burned

10 year average yearly was 53,316 fires with 6,223,929 acres burned

 

[Headbandf1]

FUBAR , Period!

 

[St. Phatty]

PG&E chips the small stuff and leaves the larger pieces for homeowners to deal with around here. 10-20 ft logs usually. It’s usuallly Ponderosa pine, not everyone likes to burn it in wood stoves, it’s about 20% of what I burn, helps with wood that’s not all the way dry.

I've seen the figure of $400 Billion as few times, as the total cost for the 2018 fires in California.

I thought insurance claims were about $15 Billion.

That fire that grew from Redding up to Shasta was epic.

I've driven that stretch of road so many times.

I like the Motel 6 right off of 5 there, they make coffee at 5 AM. I figure there's got to be a lot of fire refugees.

$50 a night to stay there, and so many apartments are more than $50 a night.

 

[Teddybrae]

My assessment of the Economy as a what? A Stoned Hippie? A Father of five? Someone who has not worked for 24 years? A Libertarian? A Male? A Dope Grower? A Member of the General Public?

Can we be more specific please?

(Glad yr over yr illness.)

 

[St. Phatty]

My assessment of the Economy as a what? A Stoned Hippie? A Father of five? Someone who has not worked for 24 years? A Libertarian? A Male? A Dope Grower? A Member of the General Public?

Can we be more specific please?

(Glad yr over yr illness.)

Your assessment of the Australian economy ?

 

[Driver 8]

Well if debt has value then we are delusional.

It's pretty obvious that the USA has any intention of paying back the trillions it owes.

Our currency is not backed by anything but debt.

Only a fool or an economist will tell you our economy is solid.

 

[Teddybrae]

Saint P, I 'm not in a position to assess anything 'economic'.

Listen ... last evening a man came on the tele and he said that: " ... the share market was flat today".

So in an attempt to understand him I tried to imagine what a Flat Market looks like. Now, don't misunderstand me, I 've seen plenty of markets. Fish markets, fruit markets, week end markets, swap meets. But never a FLAT market.

I thought for a while that maybe he was talking about Afghani markets after a Taliban bombing. Or maybe a market in Fellujah flattened by U.S. tanks. But no, it seemed he was talking about something closer to home.

So I looked more closely at him. And his thousand dollar fine wool suit. And his neck tie which no doubt was symbolic of belonging to something a bit above commonality.
I saw that the man was fat. (Not Phat.) He was overflowing his clothes. I imagined his shirt collar was getting greasy from the exudations of last night's steak thru his skin ... and was that a corset holding in his abdomen? It certainly did not look like a six pack.

And I thought about the old Nixon joke: "Would you buy a used car from this man?" And I came up with: "NO!"

I mean, even if I could understand his specialist language, why should I believe anything this man says?

So fuck all this left brain imaginary bullshit we are being fed like you feed your chickens, Saint P.

Fuck all the politicians who redraw a line on a map and so thousands of innocents die.

Fuck all the ordinary people who imagine they understand what the world is like because they watch this poxy news service or that other equally poxy news service.

Now, at present, here and now, I 'm gonna sign off and stroll into my forest, where awaits me a magic garden. A garden which has never let me down. It's the Garden of Detachment that I share with the birds and (sometimes unfortunately) the native animals.

And I will never think of odd ideas like 'economies' or 'politics' in all the time I 'm there.

At least as far as the news world is concerned: Ignorance is Bliss!

Your assessment of the Australian economy ?

 

[St. Phatty]

The US is being "led" (sort of) by Trump & Pelosi.

What could possibly go wrong ?

The Fed has started creating digital money again, $200 Billion since August, and now they have announced the $60 Billion a month, or purchasing something (Treasuries ?)

So it's very similar to QE1, QE2, and QE3, but they don't want to call it QE4.

It's wierd how obedient the markets are. As soon as they announce QE4, you will see normal reactions. E.g. Gold prices spiked about 8% in one hour, when they announced QE1.


Meanwhile in Silicon Valley ... Zero Risk Entrepreneuring - if you belong to the right demographic category.

Adam Neumann gets $1.7 Billion for starting a real estate reseller - that has lost $Billions.

Which Softbank has just sunk another $5 Billion into ... in an effort not to lose money ?!


Does working in high tech make people unable to understand the meaning of the term, "throwing good money after bad" ?


Meanwhile pension funds worldwide are failing or on the brink of failure. Hard to generate income when interest rates are near zero.

One of the last income sources for them - stock market price appreciation - is on the edge of a cliff.


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/n...inese-firms-looking-offload-western-companies

"It's only a matter of time before Chinese firms become forced sellers of Western companies, only to realize that there will be no buyers at the valuations they paid several years ago, as forced selling will then crush valuations."

Lots of ZH articles are "just to sell ads" (well actually all ZH articles are to sell ads).

Margin Call in China = China selling US stocks.


Short Version -

It's like the Tulip Bubble, but with many more facets, many of the market participants are supercomputers, and the bubble is fed with "Gas" in the form of $4 Trillion (current count) of US$ Fed "Reserves".

And that's part of the Big Con - convincing the general public that Debt is an Asset.

 

[soil margin]

I see a lot of people with nice houses and shiny cars, but I also see a lot of people unemployed or working shitty low wage part time jobs. Many people are doing well and building wealth/saving but many people are also in precarious financial situations or just flat out broke.

 

[Jim Rockford]

It's all bullshit. Humans are on a horrible trajectory. Greed, the imbalance of wealth, the importance of hoarding money over making sure all humans have health care, the economy is doing horrible. It has for a long time imo. The economy has put mother earth on the fast track to her grave.