Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[Mountain]

On Wednesday night Slothower wrote: “The iShares Silver Trust ETF SLV -8.63% fell another $2.31 today. I can’t stress enough how investors were set up here ... Remember what the media present as the most obvious thing to do is really what J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM -0.14% and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS -0.58% want you, the public, to do. And last month, crushing the dollar and forcing investors to buy gold and silver at the top of the market gave the primary dealers plenty of liquidity to sell their gold and silver positions into the top of the cycle.”

That says it all right there.

 

[SELFHEMPLOYED]

Fuck! Should I hold on to the silver or dump it while I can??

 

[iSMOKE.KUSH]

Fuck! Should I hold on to the silver or dump it while I can??

i'd dump it ASAP.

p.s. glad i didn't buy into the hype of silver. some of my friends kept trying to get me to buy.

considering short selling IOC? good/bad idea?

 

[SpasticGramps]

I would hold it. There is going to be a massive sell off of everything as QEII ends.

When Bernanke has to come back into the market with QEIII because the wheels are coming off the bus then commodities and everything will explode again.

A while back I said I was a little nervous because Cramer had gotten on the PM bandwagon. He help set everyone up nicely again.

 

[SELFHEMPLOYED]

Nice. Thanks for te advice. I think I'll ride it out

 

[Scottish Research]

I'm reading this right now. Great book!

The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine is a 2010 non-fiction book by Michael Lewis about the build-up of the housing and credit bubble during the 2000s. It describes several of the key players in the creation of the credit default swap market that sought to bet against the bubble and thus ended up profiting from the financial crisis of 2007–2010.

 

[Mountain]

Nice. Thanks for te advice. I think I'll ride it out

For me silver would be something to hold to hedge any major financial crisis. You can do whatever you want but if anything I'd be looking at buying in and around where silver is at now. In the space of 5 days it's gone from extreme overbought to extreme oversold. Around $34 is some pretty good old support and with the volume today it appears to be panic selling and it's hitting it's 100 MA. I'm guessing the guys that made money on the way up and sold at the top will be buying it back down around here. The next logical area of support will be around $30. If it gets down there I'd be looking to buy a lot but that also depends on it's behaviour on it's way down, general market conditions, how it behaves when it gets there, etc.

That is one UGLY drop over the last 5 days. One thing is it's going to keep a lot of people away from silver for quite awhile which will give any big money an opportunity to build a position.

 

[SpasticGramps]

That is one UGLY drop over the last 5 days. One thing is it's going to keep a lot of people away from silver for quite awhile which will give any big money an opportunity to build a position.

No kidding bro. That was a hammering. I don't know that we are done yet. Lots of panic deleveraging going on everywhere.

I bolded what I think is going on now. They got everyone in that they could and then slaughtered them and made them panic sell. They'll start accumulating now for a rerun.

The fundamentals for precious metals haven't changed. We just ran up too quickly.

 

[SpasticGramps]

On QEII ending and the market reaction....

I think of it like this. The market is like a drug addict. It is addicted to easy money (debt). We are a nation addicted to debt, but that's beside the point. Now Bernanke is the drug dealer. He is about to take away the heroin addicts heroin again which causes detox pains and a host of unpleasant side effects, just as it did last year. In fact our addiction is so great that detox may kill the patient as it sometimes does in real life. The mere realization by the market that there may be no drugs in a little while causes it freak out. Much more the actual act of taking the drugs away.

So Bernanke is left in a catch 22. If he takes away the drugs the patient may die, but if he keeps giving the market free money the dollar will die. Not a lot of good options for the drug dealer or the patient. Something has to die.

 

[Mountain]

I was talking to a friend today and said his lady just bought silver at $45 oz...ouch. I said it'll eventually get back up there. For me with silver it's just buy, put away and forget about it.

Almost pulled the trigger on some QQQ puts early only. Just not paying close enough attention lately to things.

 

[SpasticGramps]

For me with silver it's just buy, put away and forget about it.

Absolutely. The Hunt Brothers would agree.

"Just about anything you buy, rather than paper, is better. You’re bound to come out ahead, in the long pull. If you don’t like gold, use silver, or diamonds or copper, but something. Any damn fool can run a printing press." - Nelson Bunker Hunt

I can't stress that enough. I'm not trading silver. I'm hedging with it.

 

[Madrus Rose]

Silver getting crushed again today. First solid support I saw was around $35 then maybe $34. Maybe it will tank to $30. NOG definitely oversold right here and right around $20 is key.

Nice trading Madrus...which I had more time to focus on this stuff.

All the oil related stocks & UCO got hit pretty good today with Oil trading back under $100...as prices rose near $1 last 2mos consumption had gone down 4mos straight & the Libyan thing was all just a ruse . Now CVX XOM MRO VLO might be tradable long tomorrow but its the silver thats in focus .

Silver , SLV & the AGQ ....SLV has stabilized here tonight round $33.50 & AGQ around $175 what a 3 plunge .

 

[Madrus Rose]

But want to know an interesting contrarian trade was on RIG this am which pulled the same type of oversold bounce off a double bottom low test as did NVLS on Tues am off $30.50 .

Check the chart on RIG ... they reported cr@p earnings this am ,trading in the premarket at $66.25/50 yet still got the bounce on the open of nearly 4pts . They bought the bad news & shorts that got too greedy got squeezed . RIG like NVLS had already been beaten down & down till they were at a complete reset . But i had been stalking RIG all along & saw buying interest up at $70 before , still a premier company they want to own .

Both NVLS & RIG were in the "Oversold RSI " & at that same that double bottom support i keep mentioning that usually always holds for good stocks beaten down . Same charts almost for both , you look at NVLS rising up 30% & falling back 25% in 4mos & now bouncing again ...why trade so much when if you just played this up & down last 4 mos just had to make 4 trades is all !!
Rinse, lather , wash & repeat

* Really exciting news out of InTel annnouncement of the first 22nm 3D Tri-Gate Transistors, Shipping in 2H 2011, seems a real game changing milestone
http://www.anandtech.com/show/4313/...nm-3d-trigate-transistors-shipping-in-2h-2011

twice as fast in the same space & 2-3yrs ahead of anyone else

 

[Madrus Rose]

Here gramps you'll love this Max Kieser report
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Q5Hn2Frx0o

he sure gets fiesty and roasting JP Morgaan

 

[Cheeb]

no weak hands here. Stack physical and go long.

Unfortunately got into physical late around 37-38 majority, but irrationally continued to buy up through the 40s.

Aside the 25% correction I'm where I want to be...just bad entry point.

No doubt its continuing its upward trend. The fundamentals have not changed. USD is cancerous and will fail.

We calling a bottom at 34-35? or do you think we'll continue to slide down to upper 20s through weekend and more margin hikes on monday..?

HUGE buying opportunity for all. This silver train made one last gracious stop before it heads onward. Be thankful for it..

--

PS - dont forget to invest in her ugly cousin - LEAD! Shits about to get thick.

 

[Mountain]

We calling a bottom at 34-35? or do you think we'll continue to slide down to upper 20s through weekend and more margin hikes on monday..?

Seems it was $34 which coincided with the lows mid March and disregarding any post/pre market activity yesterday/this morning it bounced right off it's 100 MA and $34 (33.79 actually). It was really oversold and the rest of the panic sellers dumped after hours/premarket it seems.

Glad I didn't pull the trigger on the puts...lol. Was almost feeling like the market would turn up today for some reason. Gotta start paying closer attention.

 

[SpasticGramps]

You can't stop the Bernanke POMO train meltup! lol

It seems to me this market meltups up with brief instances of sheer panic selling here and there.

 

[SpasticGramps]

What did I tell ya'll? Ol Billy Boy will be back for more when QEIII inevitably comes.

Bill Gross Says May Change Mind On Shorting US Treasuries If Potential For Another Recession

From Reuters, quoting Bill Gross, who previously did not believe in another round of QE:

PIMCO'S GROSS SAYS WILL CHANGE HIS MIND ON SHORTING US TREASURIES IF THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER RECESSION

And of course, another recession will mean more QE, which means more debt monetization, which means that naturally, the first and last buyer for Treasury bonds, the Fed, will be there for ever and ever, which means more fiat printing, which means $5+ trillion in Fed "assets", which means more inflation expectations, etc, etc.

More from Reuters:

PIMCO's Bill Gross, who runs the world's largest bond fund, said on Friday the only way he would reverse his "short" position on U.S. government-related bonds is if the United States heads into another recession.

Since the April 11 news that Gross turned more bearish on U.S. Treasury debt, reflecting his growing worries over the country's fiscal deficit and debt burden, Treasury prices have been soaring.

On Friday Treasury prices fell though after a better than expected U.S. monthly employment report .

Asked Friday Gross told Reuters: "Treasury yields are currently yielding substantially less than historical averages when compared with inflation. Perhaps the only justification for a further rally would be weak economic growth or a future recession that substantially lowered inflation and inflationary expectations."

If you don't think it's coming let me ask you this. Who is going to buy 80% of our bonds that the FED is monetizing right now? Beuller? Beuller?..........Beuller?

 

[Mountain]

Well you see reports where the Fed is saying there's no inflation or it's muted and consumers are pulling back due to rising prices you just gotta go...D'Oh! I talk with a lot of local business and quite a few have gone under or are in the process just in recent months and already a decent amount of commercial space available that usually sits there empty for awhile. A local friend ran a sale to his customer base, that's not local, and the response is the most muted he's seen from this type of effort in years. Even on sale peeps are just saying no.

Who is going to buy 80% of our bonds that the FED is monetizing right now? Beuller?

I don't know if Matthew Broderick has that kind of money.

 

[Zen Master]

I talk with a lot of local business and quite a few have gone under or are in the process just in recent months and already a decent amount of commercial space available that usually sits there empty for awhile.

I have been noticing a TON of commercial spaces for rent everywhere. They sit and sit and sit. Some get filled, but are empty within months.