Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[Groseph]

hey guys? what is your prediction on gold? I feel like a dumbass not buying it when it was lower. Is it to late to get in?

Gold at $1650 / Silver $40 is cheap in the grand scheme of things. Aside from needing us dollars to pay for bills and daily living expenses buy as much gold and silver as you can afford.

As SpasticGramps said...currency destruction is the only option and is their plan.

You wont want to be holding paper dollars as this "crisis" continues. It'll be one crisis after another while TPTB rob the normal population of everything they have.

While it would have been nice to stack these metals at cheaper prices you'll be thankful you purchased at todays prices in the long term vs. having no metals at all. Its a global market and will continue to trend upward as the masses both of this country, but more importantly other countries buy gold and silver to get out of the failing USD.

- -

 

[bentom187]

Oh did Cramer have another meltdown today? That clown's meltdowns are hilarious. I'm going to tune into him after Friday. I bet he has bad day.

its about ,the funniest aspect of this whole thing.

 

[iSMOKE.KUSH]

going to be a rough day for the market methinks. china's leading credit rating industry downgraded U.S. credit rating..

 

[stony2]

Oh did Cramer have another meltdown today? That clown's meltdowns are hilarious. I'm going to tune into him after Friday. I bet he has bad day.

you really, really, really should not watch TV. it is hard to remain a clear head when watching TV. you are getting brainwashed, and it is very hard to resist it, because all this content in the end WILL have an effect on you

sometime last year a friend of mine started watching TV again. in the weeks and months after i could just watch him progressively getting dumber. a sad sight, but at least glad that i am not like that

 

[SpasticGramps]

Gold is at $1670 right now. Silver @ 41.70. Interactive brokers just hiked silver trading margin (obvious attempt to try and keep the price down).

Everything else is selling off in mass. Italian PM is giving an emergency Ponzi Pep talk to the markets trying to reassure them. The dollar collapsing is causing come countries to scramble as the race to the bottom heats up. Japan is facing a crisis as USD/JPY hits 76.8. They have reached a point where intervention by the BOJ does nothing. They are now helpless sitting ducks. The Swiss cut their interest rates to 0% to try and devalue their currency as everyone jumps from the Dollar and the Euro sinking ship.

China and Russia are blasting the US for the poo poop debt deal that was passed. I guess the US is now officially internationally known as the "parasite" of the ponzi. Wonder what they are going to think of us after QE3?

ADP printed at 114K. Fridays official job report from the ministry of propaganda should be interesting.

Bulls are getting smoked. Although I wouldn't be surprised if we closed green today. After all everything I just said is bullish inside the twilight zone of the Bernanke Put.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Remind Us Again Why Anyone Should Own Stocks For the Next Two Years

The case for "buying and holding" stocks boils down to four words: don't fight the Fed. Forget moral hazard and all the fancy stuff; the reason to load the truck with stocks is that the Fed is invincible, and its mighty machinery of manipulation can drive stocks higher no matter what else is happening.

Put another way: when the Fed succeeds in driving the dollar to near-zero, the value of stocks will be near-infinite.

The case to dump stocks now and not even look at the market for two years is based not on worship of the Federal Reserve's infinite wisdom and power but on the charts. The abject, pathetic, remarkably complete failure of QE2 has driven a stake through the heart of the Fed's political power and its reputation for wisdom; it has been revealed as a clueless cabal, basing policy on textbook models of what "should happen when we do this." Alas, real life doesn't follow moldy old PhD theses, and it doesn't worship the Fed or listen to the cargo-cult incantations of the Keynesians.

Financialization anf globalization have run their course, along with cheap abundant energy. As the giant 17-year bubble in stocks deflates, those entrusting their money with Wall Street face stupendous risk and potentially massive losses. (Shameless pitch alert.) My new book An Unconventional Guide to Investing in Troubled Times is all about withdrawing your trust from Wall Street and investing your capital in alternatives such as localized, productive assets which do not depend on financialization or globalization for their value or income streams. (It's currently #5 in the Kindle Store's investing category, and #9 in Amazon's Investing Bestsellers category, so there's some interest in the topic.) You can read the first chapter and other stuff here.

Let's let the charts speak for themselves, shall we?

Here is the S&P 500 from 1965 to 2011: note the giant double top, and the gigantic bubble which began inflating circa 1994 as financialization and globalization began their long domination of the economy.

Only massive government intervention reinflated the bubble in 2009-11, and now gravity is reasserting itself. The trendline projects to the next low around 600, while the bubble-retrace projects to around 450.

Since volume is the weapon of the Bull, let's check in on volume: oops, it's been dropping since 2009. Looks like those in the know have been selling into strength bigtime.

Courtesy of the always insightful Doug Short, here is Doug's overlay of the current market and two previous stock market bubbles, the Dow 1929 and the Nikkei 1989. Note that the market was rolling over last August, but the Fed launched QE2 and added a year to the "recovery." Can they extend it another year? based on their dwindling political capital, the answer is "unlikely."

Interestingly, the low hit by previous bubbles corresponds rather closely with cycle-seer Martin Armstrong's turn date of July, 2013. (He also pegs August 2014 and September 2015 as turn dates as well.)

This overlay of the 2002 decline and the current market also offers food for thought. As in, "this sucker's going down."

Again courtesy of Doug Short, the Q Ratio, which is at highs not seen since the last market top.

Since the U.S. dollar and the SPX have been on a see-saw for years, it's interesting to compare the DXY's recent decline with its action back in the summer of 2008, just before the global financial Ponzi scheme imploded.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Green close!

But trouble stirs in Italy. The PM's ponzi pep talk didn't seem to work. Credit crunch in the making?

Silvio Berlusconi fails to stem rising panic in financial markets The Guardian

Fears that the eurozone crisis is escalating and further evidence of the weakness in the US economy drove stock markets lower on Wednesday as policy makers failed to restore confidence in global markets.

The FTSE 100 index closed at its lowest level since November, after its biggest one day fall for nine months of 133 points. After a nerve-racking day Wall Street narrowly avoided its ninth consecutive day of falls – a losing streak unseen since 1978.

A much anticipated speech by Italy's prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, was delayed until European markets closed but failed to calm the storm on international financial markets that threatens to engulf his country and imperil the entire eurozone.

Italy and Spain – whose prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero has cut short his summer holiday – are now at the centre of the eurozone debt crisis that began with Greece more than a year ago and has enveloped Ireland and Portugal.

European commission president José Manuel Barroso tried to inject calm into the markets by insisting that record high yields – interest rates – on Spanish and Italian government bonds were "unwarranted". "Developments in the sovereign bond markets of Italy and Spain are a cause of deep concern," Barroso said.

"These developments are clearly unwarranted on the basis of economic and budgetary fundamentals in these two member states and the steps that they are taking to reinforce those fundamentals."

The Swiss central bank stunned markets by attempting to reverse the "massive overvaluation" of the Swiss franc, which hit record highs against the dollar as a perceived haven, by cutting interest rates.

Amid the anxieties in Europe, concerns about the US economy were compounded when the service sector survey was weaker than expected and other data showed a fall in factory orders in June. Investors bet on gold as a safe haven driving prices to a record $1,663.40 an ounce.

European politicians had hoped their deal on 21 July to bailout Greece for a second time and impose losses on bond holders would restore confidence in the eurozone. Their efforts have failed, particularly as US debt crisis compounded the febrile atmosphere in the markets.

In France, shares in the second largest bank Société Générale were temporarily suspended – they eventually closed 9% lower in heavy turnover – after it took a €395m (£345m) hit on its exposure to Greece because of its contribution to the bailout plan.

Concerns were also mounting that banks across the eurozone were finding difficulties in funding themselves on the markets. Huw van Steenis, banks analyst at Morgan Stanley, said: "Investors, we and some banks are increasingly concerned that funding markets won't reopen with sufficient depth or at good enough terms for Italian and Spanish issuers, requiring banks to take offsetting measures".

 

[SpasticGramps]

Japan finally capitulates and intervenes once again. Throwing down a parsley $500 billion Yen so far and considering up to $2 trillion. They will go down printing.

Japan stocks surge after yen intervention

SYDNEY (MarketWatch) — Tokyo-listed shares led gains in Asia on Thursday, with exporters getting a lift as Japan intervened in the foreign-exchange market to stem the yen’s recent rise.

Recovering from a lackluster start, the Nikkei Stock Average JP:NIK +0.90% jumped 0.9%, taking back a portion of the 3.3% loss made over the past two trading sessions.

The gains came after the Japanese government intervened in the foreign-exchange markets, sending the yen sharply lower against all major currencies. The Bank of Japan said that the Ministry of Finance’s action “will contribute to stable price formation in the market.” See report on Japanese foreign-exchange intervention.

We'll see how long this one's half life is. Calling this financial warfare isn't hyperbole. It's the real deal.

More On The 2011 Edition Of US-Japan Open Currency Warfare: "This Is Just The Beginning"

According to Credit Suisse, this is just the beginning of Transpacific central banking warfare. Per Dow Jones: "The Japanese Ministry of Finance's JPY-selling operation Thursday may be the first in a series of interventions over the coming weeks to curb further rises in the unit, and may have come Thursday in part as the Swiss National Bank's move Wednesday to weaken its own currency made it easier for Japan also to step in, says Koji Fukaya, director of fixed income and global foreign exchange research at Credit Suisse. "This may be the start of a number of actions, depending on the yen moves in the weeks ahead," Fukaya says. The SNB's move Wednesday means Japan's own move "could be considered as a kind of coordinated action" in response to broad USD weakness, he says. As traders say the MOF has so far sold under Y500 billion, Fukaya says the total size ahead could rise as high as Y2 trillion, though the move Thursday should be enough to send USD/JPY above 79.00 later, where it should stabilize in coming sessions. The pair is now at 78.32, from 77.10 earlier." To anyone trading in these 100% correlated markets, which are now nothing but a battleground for those who yield the global electronic fiat printing presses, good luck.

One thing is certain: this latest attempt by the feeble BOJ to take on the Chairsatan is doomed to failure, as confirmed by the Bloomberg chart showing the "effect" of the last two such interventions:

 

[The iD]

Bulls are getting smoked. Although I wouldn't be surprised if we closed green today. After all everything I just said is bullish inside the twilight zone of the Bernanke Put.

hehe, yup, doublethink has yet to give up its throne over reality. soon....soon. we have seen a week+ of the bears beating the hell out of the market on political and economic data, and supported by a number of macro technical indicators like the 200DMA crossover. after testing the year lows, the bulls came out in force today to BTD off these last & strongest support levels. highish volume was indicating a reversal, higher lows pattern confirmed an uptrend imo.

im predicting an up day tomorrow (+1%, ~+2% upper limit, w/ a 2.5% range, minimal downside) w/ a topping pattern a lil after midday that possibly sells into the close. much will depend on if the bears decide to sit a day out content on waiting on Friday's #s, which would allow the bulls and MOMO algos to BTD, or if they try to steal it back, or even pump it up to position better. if we sustain similar volume to today, look for an inverse of today's action to end flat again.

friday shall be interesting. there are two possibilities:

the lesser: #s beat expectations. while highly unlikely, it is a possibility that the #s post beats of projections. JPM, GS, et al., have lowered their GDP estimates by ~50% from 2.5% to 1.5%. in loopy fiat land, a beat of 0.1% on a -50% revised number is bullish. also, w/ the new 2.4T$ of credit, if TPTB wanted to get real shady, they could include that in the GDP # as well in some form, since thats what we are best at producing...debt, artificially raising GDP. same cooking goes on in employment #s, we get what they want to give us. bullish baby. in this case, i would look for a slow retracement of 50% up to ~12.3-12.6k DJI.

the greater: #s miss even the revised lower predictions. a negative employment number coupled w/ a sub 1.0% GDP would be devastating and all but confirm, as if it hasnt been already, that we are indeed entering a "double-dip" recession. food stamp recipients are at all time highs, and unemployment will be gaining towards 10.0%, which is an altered statistic, while actual unemployment is above 20%. once the US hits 23% it is officially equal to the great depression of '30s/'40s. too much negative data to list. fear is beginning to show. bear cavalry & kitten snipers. in this case i would be short nearly everything, except PMs and a pair of good boots. bottom is not visible from these altitudes, -xx%?. scary indeed. perfect scenario to usher in QE3/OT2/SD.

im predicting a decoupling from EURUSD and switching to an inverse gold indicator. already seeing what i believe is the beginnings, but far too early to confirm yet. if USD continues lower, gold will continue to hit new highs on fear and flight to tradition, while investors ironically toss money into treasuries as a weak dollar is actually bullish for rising interest rates in the long term, hence the difference in 10y20y and 1y2y5y. and hence, out of equities. the dollar is actually trying to strengthen, it is the gov and Fed that have been debasing it. both d/r sides are culpable for the demise of the USD. 240B$ burned in 48hrs; disgusting.

break 11.9kDJI thurs and test 12k, then 12.1k, maybe 12.2k. will be watching gold, volume, & EU markets. they opened up ~1% so far. gold flat after hitting that 1675 mark yesterday before open and its retracement. crude just broke positive briefly. STP. gl and stay frosty,

-iD

edit: damn, right about now when EU markets turn south and futures dip is when i begin to doubt. perhaps more downside risk than i think. JPYUSD hit 80 already. could be a trap too. anyways, gl. enjoy the ride.

 

[SpasticGramps]

edit: damn, right about now when EU markets turn south and futures dip is when i begin to doubt. perhaps more downside risk than i think. JPYUSD hit 80 already. could be a trap too. anyways, gl. enjoy the ride.

Nice post. Looks like Europe is turning into a bloodbath. The ECB is trying to intervene to stem the panic, but intervention half life is now only a few hours. Could the central bankers be loosing control? Certainly looks like it's starting to get serious.

ECB Buys Italian Bonds, Third Major Central Bank Intervention In Past 24 Hours As Status Quo Panic Explodes

At exactly 9 am, half an hour into Trichet's press conference, the world's most undercapitalized hedge fund: the European Central Bank, demonstratively came in and started buying Italian bonds in hopes the market will forget just how broke the European continent truly is. This is the third major intervention by a central bank in capital markets in the past 24 hours following the SNB and the BOJ. Next up the Fed, and everything going to hell. Because even as Italian bond yields drop below 6%, the selloff in Portugal bonds is accelerating and the 10 Year yield is now 15 bps wider at 11.34%. We have a question: at what point does the ECB have to officially start printing Euros before its capitalization goes negative?

Update: we spoke too soon. ECB now panic buying Portuguese bonds too:

US markets are tanking. Down almost 2% across the board. Shiny metals setting new records. Still wouldn't be surprised to see a green close today.

Something else interesting. Three month Treasury Bill Prints at 0.000%

The paper ponzi empire burns.

 

[The iD]

can we call it now? TSHHTF. no support until 11.6k, gold hitting new highs, italy and spain imploding. isnt looking good. stay frosty,

-iD

 

[SpasticGramps]

can we call it now?
-iD

Sure does have that 2008 feeling eh? There needs to be absolute panic and chaos in order for the masses to beg for QE3. That will mark the beginning of the end IMO.

Italy's FTSE was just halted. Europe is in full meltdown mode for sure.

No green close today looks like. Sorry Ben. US equities getting destroyed.

Tomorrows jobs report is going to be brutal I think. This ponzi is up shit creek without a paddle.

 

[Zen Master]

wtf is going on with PM's today.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Maybe profit taking. All commodities are dumping too. Oil is down 5% to 87. Everything is tanking. I'm hoping gold and silver tank hard so I can BTMFD.

Even ZeroHedge crashed lol. Servers are down. It's a bloodbath all around. I bet the close is going to be epic.

 

[Zen Master]

I was thinking the same about this dip

and then we've pretty much got QE3 in the works, once it finally hits whaddya think about support levels for gold/silver? Gonna be an interesting month to say the least.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Here's the real scoop on gold. Since everyone is getting slaughtered they have to sell to raise capital for the margin calls. It eventually becomes a ponzi death spiral.

Margin Calls Force Start Of Gold Liquidation

As expected, the massive global rout is shifting to the best performing asset: gold, which courtesy of pervasive repo desk margin calls (which are merely trying to preserve capital for their TBTF holding companies) is seeing liquidations to satisfy collateral margin requirements. It will be interesting if the only real dip worth buying will see buyers come out of the woodwork or if gold will proceed to plunge alongside everything else.

 

[litebuzz]

if I bought gold now...it would no doubt start tanking the next hour. at least I have last years and this years IRA contributions still sitting in cash. taking it up the ol poop shoot w/out k-y the last few weeks.
It just makes ya wanna start a cash cottage style business.....

 

[SpasticGramps]

once it finally hits whaddya think about support levels for gold/silver?

I can't even guess at this point. We're getting closer to the total chaos point. The feedback loop of selling to raise capital is in full force. From here it's anyone's guess. I'm just hanging onto my tin foil hat at this point.

 

[SpasticGramps]

This is not going to end well. The central planners are getting very desperate as their Keynesian experiment goes up in smoke.

Short-Term Yields Going Negative As BoNY Announces It Will Charge 13 bps Fee On Deposits

The stunner in this morning's newsflow (the long, long overdue market collapse which is a much needed catalyst for QE3 should not surprise anyone), comes out of the WSJ which has just reported that the Bank of New York has informed institutional clients it will begin charging a fee of 13 bps on deposits in excess of 110% of the client's monthly average. This is nothing short of outright terrorism to get everyone out of cash and into fiat-based ponzi products. Such as Short Term Bills. Indeed, as was reported earlier the 3 Month bill just hit zero. But you ain't seen nothing yet. As Credit Suisse strategist Ira Jersey reports, courtesy of Bloomberg, "If this is true then we’re likely to see short-end interest rates actually go negative. By what degree depends on who else follows and how much money is involved." Cue unpredictable consequences of a totally broken bond market. What happens next will likely make the market dislocations following Lehman feel like a breezy walk in the park.

 

[Sam the Caveman]

C R A S H