Plummeting Marijuana Prices for Growers

[Chamba]

This is a big deal, because Trudeau is currently safely ahead in the polls. Moreover, as the next election draws nigh in 2015,

If the polls were two weeks instead of 2 years away, then...maybe.

I'm on your side, but don't get your hopes up too high just yet as 2 years is a very very long time, heck two days is a long time in politics as things can change with just a headline or two, a watering down of policy or big bags of cash under the table...never underestimate the filthy rotten tactics from those who will lose from cannabis legalization will get up to to protect their profits.

and don't forget the optimism surrounding Obama's first Presidential election......politicians will say or infer anything if it means it will help them get elected, then once they get power will break promises to all but those who directly financed and continue to finance their grip on power....us average smucks in the street don't really have a say, despite the fact that you and I live in supposed democracy, there's not a democratic country in the world that is not a puppet for and is in the pocket of big business interests, that's just the way it is and the way it will always be.

 

[Chamba]

the best quote I've ever heard about politics and politicians is ...that equally applies to Canada or any where else

"Any American who is prepared to run for president should automatically, by definition, be disqualified from ever doing so." Gore Vidal

 

[macdiesel]

as a matter of fact, people should be really concerned with the chemicals used by many cannabis growers. The nutrients, boosters, pesticides and fungicides that many growers use are gonna kill the "pot is good for you" argument. These synthetic chemicals counter any of the beneficial, healing elements of cannabis. Most dispensery weed and when it happens, most massed produced weed will be the results of lots of toxins. When was the last time you smoked dispensery weed that left a nice grey ash instead of a black, sooty mess. So as long as small growers grow quality ORGANIC cannabis, their will be a need for that product.

Problem is, the buyers only care about bag appeal and smell.

I agree with you, but sellers are going to achieve what buyers want.

 

[floralheart]

a dime is still $10

funny enough, now they're $25

 

[fatigues]

So the Canadian government will be exclusively growing pot then? Fuck that...do not want.

No, I think there is not a chance of that.

The details on the plan that the provincial wing of the BC Liberal party was working on (which - to be clear - have not been formally adopted by the federal Liberal National Party at all) called for growers to be licensed commercial enterprises.

The only seller in that model was as is determined by the various provincial governments. In the ordinary course, it would be expected to be government liquor stores which are provincial, not federal.

Basically, it comes down to this: the Federal government in Canada is not in a position, constitutionally speaking, to be in charge of cannabis if it is a legal recreational substance. At that point, the authority for the Federal government to take jurisdiction over pot by relying upon the criminal law power is gone. For the most part, legal recreational cannabis would then be subject to regulation by the provinces in terms of when, where and how it is to be sold. Product safety might be a possible residual constitutional jurisdiction for the Canadian Federal Government to be involved - but it all comes down to what the 10 provinces want to do with it at that point.. Expect some variation across the provinces.

Best guess: an exclusive government monopoly on the point of sale for cannabis which would be done through the various provincial liquor stores. Growing, manufacture, packaging and supply would be by private enterprise.

 

[fatigues]

This is a big deal, because Trudeau is currently safely ahead in the polls. Moreover, as the next election draws nigh in 2015,

If the polls were two weeks instead of 2 years away, then...maybe.

I'm on your side, but don't get your hopes up too high just yet as 2 years is a very very long time, heck two days is a long time in politics as things can change with just a headline or two, a watering down of policy or big bags of cash under the table...never underestimate the filthy rotten tactics from those who will lose from cannabis legalization will get up to to protect their profits.

and don't forget the optimism surrounding Obama's first Presidential election......politicians will say or infer anything if it means it will help them get elected, then once they get power will break promises to all but those who directly financed and continue to finance their grip on power.

I don't worry about that happening at all. The Liberals >>want<< to do this. It's been part of the policy platform of the party for years - and a dream of most of its activists for longer than that. This is preaching to the converted. Moreover, a majority of Canadians are on side in every region of the country.

Plus, I know American readers don't really get how Canada's political system works, but it comes down to this: in a majority government, the Prime Minister of Canada holds VASTLY more power than the President does. It's all about checks and balances - in Canada, there aren't many at all.

In contrast, in the U.S. President still has both houses of Congress to contend with. In Canada, the P.M. does not. In a Parliamentary system, the PM and Cabinet runs the show in both Houses.

Moreover, the ability of corporate interests and donors to influence the politicians is much, much less in Canada (it's there -- but it is greatly diminished). The ability to make a campaign donation in Canada is greatly restricted and PAC's of any kind are not allowed during an election campaign. A candidate can't even use his or her OWN MONEY in an election campaign -- they are prevented from donating more to their own campaign than any other private citizen. Ross Perot cannot happen in Canada. You cannot buy your self a seat at the debate table in Canada.

Big Pharma, Big Beer, Big Liquor, etc.. I'm not worried about them trying to stop it. It is likely they would all be lining up to be the big players in that market though. I have no dreams or illusions of a thriving cottage industry. There will be big players and Big Money involved in trying to become a major supplier and "brand". The impetus to concentrate the consumer market in the hands of a few will be strong I expect. Would-be industry players would see it as an opportunity to make a lot of money.

There are too many good reasons to legalize at a political level -- and not enough bad ones not to. The only real interest at the table who would be able to exert pressure to block it would be the US Government. Problem is, the Liberal Party of Canada has always won its greatest approval from Canadians by taking an anti-American stance and tweaking Uncle Sam's beak. On any issue, telling America to go screw itself is worth a five point bump in the polls. That's how the Brits and Australians got sucked into Iraq while Canada dodged that bullet. Liberal PMs get a lot of mileage out of telling American Presidents "no".

Trudeau gets in and 58% of Canadians are still in support of legalization? It will happen and that will be that; moreover, it is unlikely to reversed after that. The Canadian electorate does not have much stomach in revisiting our social policy issues once a matter has been decided. Canada just does it and moves on.

Canada will fiddle on the edge of forever about Quebec's place in Canada; similarly, fiscal and economic policy change often from election to election. But never when it comes to social issues; then it's just a done deal and Canadians are not interested in revisiting an issue. In that regard, Canada's political culture is nothing like America's at all.

What effect this have on on cannabis prices if it comes to pass is unknown. It certainly would be a mighty big splash in the market though.

My guess is that as part of the deal to placate Americans, the penalty for growing would be GREATLY increased. Would that have an effect on price in the USA? Yes, quite likely.

 

[Mr. Krinkle]

funny enough, now they're $25

i dont believe it

if a dime was now $25, it wouldn't be a dime anymore

like the nickle bag - that just went extinct - it didn't become the $8 nickle bag

 

[Skip]

Didn't Pierre Trudeau like to get blasted on pot? I really liked that guy!

I just looked it up and see that Pierre's wife, Margaret, was a long-time pot smoker. In fact, she stopped around 2007 when she found out she was bi-polar and she says stopping smoking helped her health.

"I loved marijuana. I was a hippie in the '60s," Trudeau said with a laugh. "I started smoking at a young age. I took to it like a duck to water. Strawberry Fields Forever and all that."

So I really doubt Pierre could avoid smoking with her. His government never decriminalized pot, but that was probably for political reasons, not because he wasn't for it. Think D.E.A....

 

[fatigues]

Didn't Pierre Trudeau like to get blasted on pot? I really liked that guy!

He probably did. PET was the kind of guy who tried most things once.

And yes, we know Justin Trudeau's mother was a life-long user of cannabis.

But this isn't about Pierre Trudeau's exposure to cannabis, it's about his eldest son, Justin Trudeau's exposure.

Justin Trudeau lived much of his early adult life in Vancouver, B.C.. He attended the Univ of BC and worked in his 20s in Vancouver as a school teacher. Is it possible to have the most famous politician in the country as your father, be a left-wing, glamorous, good-looking, hip single male in Vancouver in the mid to late 90s and not be exposed to Vancouver's cannabis culture?

No, it isn't and we don't even have to guess: Canada's Prince of Pot, Marc Emery has said he smoked hash with Justin Trudeau in Vancouver "4 or 5 times". http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5M-zSXF_dBU

 

[BushyOldGrower]

Watch Gupta on CNN as he says he was wrong about pot! That it is very good medicine...

I have thought about how the Tea Party could become popular with minorities and young people. They are Libertarians who should stand on a platform of full legalization of cannabis. I worry they will. This is the only way they could win an election.

Gerrymandering and making it hard to vote won't win for them. I once liked Libertarians but now I see them as traitors to their roots pretending to be for individual rights. They are for your right to Carrara a gun into a movie but against a womens right to control her own body.

I am a liberal but they tend to be do gooders who also pave the road to Hell. They would regulate it to death.

So keeping it a cottage industry isn't possible? Yes it is. Any kind of laws can be passed. If we all agreed we could just legalize grows up to a reasonable size. This would require large pot companies to employ many small growers.

If we don't start thinking about jobs having weed won't matter much. Maybe I am wrong but people shouldn't go to jail for growing or selling pot. It'd just produce.

But does that mean we surrender all the jobs we created as our own Plan B?

One thing in this thread bothered me. I detected resentment of growers by some. Perhaps they resent the prices they have to pay or perhaps some people here think growers are rich and ripping everyone off.

The truth in Cali is that prices for growers have dropped by a third over the last two years but prices at the clubs haven't gone down a third. The glut just makes more money for the clubs and rips off growers.

I am sorry if I taught too many people to grow... . Bog

 

[palacoste]

Watch Gupta on CNN as he says he was wrong about pot! That it is very good medicine...

I have thought about how the Tea Party could become popular with minorities and young people. They are Libertarians who should stand on a platform of full legalization of cannabis. I worry they will. This is the only way they could win an election.

Gerrymandering and making it hard to vote won't win for them. I once liked Libertarians but now I see them as traitors to their roots pretending to be for individual rights. They are for your right to Carrara a gun into a movie but against a womens right to control her own body.

I am a liberal but they tend to be do gooders who also pave the road to Hell. They would regulate it to death.

So keeping it a cottage industry isn't possible? Yes it is. Any kind of laws can be passed. If we all agreed we could just legalize grows up to a reasonable size. This would require large pot companies to employ many small growers.

If we don't start thinking about jobs having weed won't matter much. Maybe I am wrong but people shouldn't go to jail for growing or selling pot. It'd just produce.

But does that mean we surrender all the jobs we created as our own Plan B?

One thing in this thread bothered me. I detected resentment of growers by some. Perhaps they resent the prices they have to pay or perhaps some people here think growers are rich and ripping everyone off.

The truth in Cali is that prices for growers have dropped by a third over the last two years but prices at the clubs haven't gone down a third. The glut just makes more money for the clubs and rips off growers.

I am sorry if I taught too many people to grow... . Bog

Hey BOG...in my limited experience...its all about the microclimate of your particular area...just sayin.........

 

[GreenintheThumb]

So keeping it a cottage industry isn't possible? Yes it is. Any kind of laws can be passed. If we all agreed we could just legalize grows up to a reasonable size. This would require large pot companies to employ many small growers.

It isn't possible BOG. I've been in CO for years now and have watched the political climate and how these things play out. The big money is now here and interested in doing things. Which involves control, control through political means. Very large well funded hedge fund folks come out here and out spent every industry group by a factor of two and managed to lobby to get exactly what they wanted into the law. Money talks, no matter where you are. The people in our industry have now made too much noise, the PinkHouses and the Harborsides have been babbling in the media for too long about their business and now we have attracted REAL money to our industry.

I'm sorry but there's not much to do when people who can throw $100 million dollars around like it's nothing want to come in and start affecting the mom and pop cottage industry folks. I've met these people and they aren't even the Great White Sharks who will be coming. These are the little reef sharks who smelled blood in the water and are scouting it out.

My advice: learn to live with these people, carve out your own small market if that's all you need to make it. Maybe you'll weather the storm. Or find some decent sharks to get in bed with. Those are your options as I see them. The change is happening in Colorado and it's headed everywhere.

If we don't start thinking about jobs having weed won't matter much. Maybe I am wrong but people shouldn't go to jail for growing or selling pot. It'd just produce.

What you will win here is that people won't be going to jail. Isn't that enough? Your kushy job of selling pounds for 3k is going to be over. It isn't a fair price, the herb isn't worth that in a free and open market. I have 30,000 sq ft of indoor space and i can produce for under $400 a pound. And that's me using expensive ass Aptus boosters. And that's going to be for the high end market. My people just got 50,000 sq ft of glasshouses to produce in. What happens to the prices when everyone can produce 600 pounds a month for next to nothing? The price is about to plummet like you wouldn't believe. But it's okay. It's what's fair, I came out here and I make about as much now as I could with a four banger in middle america. The trick is to be FINE with that. I'm doing what I love and I'm getting paid to do it. Now I grow under hundreds of hoods instead of four. If that isn't okay with you, if you have to make over 100K a year taking care of one little room of cannabis then I think you love the money more than the plant and you aren't going to be involved in this emerging legal industry. Oh well...

The truth in Cali is that prices for growers have dropped by a third over the last two years but prices at the clubs haven't gone down a third. The glut just makes more money for the clubs and rips off growers.

Your prices aren't fair, they're outrageous. The change is coming so you best get prepared. Uruguay just legalized it, they sell it for $2.5 a gram. That's what it's worth and that's what it'll be. Find a way to be involved on that level or "get a real job." What I've noticed is that most growers want nothing to do with this plant when it becomes a "real job".

I am sorry if I taught too many people to grow... . Bog

You taught me a thing or two when I was just starting in college and I thank you for that.

 

[BushyOldGrower]

It really isn't myself that I am worried about with legalization.

Don't you think people could still earn a fair wage being growers?

I don't make a lot of money on weed actually because my family smokes so much and most of my space goes to making seeds.

Maybe you think I am rich. I do have plans but just surviving so far. . Bog

 

[backyardbogfan]

Clubs are ripoff scumbags for the most part. Pay $2 and sell it for $13. That isn't compassion.
It is a ton of work and love shepherding a seed from germination to finished product and not fucking it up, as we all know one mistake can ruin it. Watch Weed Country and you see Vallejo assholes being greedy bastard middlemen.
The club setup isn't great but LEO's stance that any profit is forbidden is also bullshit.
I'd like to run a non profit with union workers and a ratio that the highest paid can't make more than 6x the wage of lowest paid worker. Any excess is used for charitable contributions. If the higher price that this would entail would be spread amongst workers I could see $13 grams.

 

[frito bandito]

Gerrymandering and making it hard to vote won't win for them. I once liked Libertarians but now I see them as traitors to their roots pretending to be for individual rights. They are for your right to Carrara a gun into a movie but against a womens right to control her own body.

What the hell are you talking about? You don't understand Libertarianism.

So keeping it a cottage industry isn't possible? Yes it is. Any kind of laws can be passed. If we all agreed we could just legalize grows up to a reasonable size. This would require large pot companies to employ many small growers.

And just as any law can be passed, any law can be ignored too. I will ignore any "law" which purports to deny my GOD GIVEN MOTHER FUCKING RIGHT to grow as many cannabis plants as I damn well please. You want a bullet in your head? Then go ahead: try and step in the tyrant's shoes and become a tyrant yourself. This country will be a FREE country once again, no matter how many statist fascists have to die to make it so. I don't think you understand just how seriously we Libertarians value our Liberty.

If we don't start thinking about jobs having weed won't matter much.

Ever heard of the Broken Window Fallacy?

"Jobs" is a political buzzword that means nothing. If we don't start thinking about LIBERTY then "jobs" are absolutely meaningless.

"I believe that liberty is the only genuinely valuable thing that men have invented, at least in the field of government, in a thousand years. I believe that it is better to be free than to be not free, even when the former is dangerous and the latter safe. I believe that the finest qualities of man can flourish only in free air – that progress made under the shadow of the policeman’s club is false progress, and of no permanent value. I believe that any man who takes the liberty of another into his keeping is bound to become a tyrant, and that any man who yields up his liberty, in however slight the measure, is bound to become a slave."

Maybe I am wrong but people shouldn't go to jail for growing or selling pot. It'd just produce.

Agreed.... but how do you reconcile that with your fascist ideas above? If you aren't willing to put a gun in somebody's face to stop them from growing "too much" pot, how will your bullshit laws get enforced?

The truth in Cali is that prices for growers have dropped by a third over the last two years but prices at the clubs haven't gone down a third. The glut just makes more money for the clubs and rips off growers.

I am no fan of the greedy clubs/dispensaries but tell me this, which is more risky: being a grower who keeps his grow at arm's length, using security protocols to ensure NOBODY KNOWS about his grow and that precautions are in place to avoid liability if found, and showing up once in a blue moon at random with no announcement to unload his goods.....or the club owner, who operates right out in public in full view of law enforcement and anyone else who wishes them harm, exposed to people working against them and risking possible SWAT team raids, IRS audits, and straight up property confiscation if an ill wind blows their way?

If you're running a dispensary or club, you damn well better grab every dollar you can get if for no other reason than to keep your lawyer's war chest well stocked! Believe me, they earn their living, if for no other reason than staying up at night worrying about law enforcement. It is not possible for me to hate a player for playing the game. When the bullshit laws are repealed then you will find operating a club/dispensary is not nearly as profitable. In fact 95% of them will go out of business, to be replaced by larger and better distribution systems.

 

[fatigues]

It really isn't myself that I am worried about with legalization.

Don't you think people could still earn a fair wage being growers?

All changes to the market bring economic disruption. The expectation that the features of a black market can be preserved in a legal one, however, is poorly placed.

Is it possible that a relative few number of organic farmers presenting a premium, differentiated product will make enough money at it to earn a living? Sure, some of them will. But only a very small number. There will always be a market for gourmet weed. However, by definition, "gourmet" is small and at the top end of the market. The other 98-99% is mass produced on a completely different scale.

Remember that there is no agricultural product in any industrial nation on earth which is grown from seed and harvested where a "grower" can earn a living. We call people who do that for a living FARMERS. And they grow agricultural products on a scale many orders of magnitude larger than any "grower". They just aren't the same skill sets. Farming is growing on an industrial scale.

Will there be cannabis farmers? Undoubtedly. But will we need very many of them, relatively speaking? It's really hard to say. I think it is fair to say that we simply don't have a CLUE how many farmers with a thousand acres of prime fields, tractors and harvesters will be necessary in a legal market.

My guess is not that many by today's standards. If even one in 100 "growers" survive as "growers", I would be surprised. Growing just isn't the same skill-set or technological challenge that modern farming is.

 

[backyardbogfan]

Napa is to wine as Mendocino is to great cannabis.
There will always be a demand for premium well grown cannabis.

 

[macdiesel]

Napa is to wine as Mendocino is to great cannabis.
There will always be a demand for premium well grown cannabis.

I get so tired of hearing this.

Deep pocket corporations have the money to research how to grow the absolute best product.

You'll be buying their genetics one day, no different than a corn farmer does.

 

[backyardbogfan]

I get so tired of hearing this.

Deep pocket corporations have the money to research how to grow the absolute best product.

You'll be buying their genetics one day, no different than a corn farmer does.

Not with BOG around.
What is your point? That big pharma will take over? There is a growing backlash against Monsanto and GMO in general. As long as I have choice I'll exercise it and give people I like my money.

 

[userdude]

Good point Macdiesel and one I haven't considered.
In the past 3 years I've seen lb go from just shy of 5k to the current rate of around 3k.