Have you looked at the North Pole lately?

[trichrider]

CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols

Petr Chylek
Chris Folland
James D. Klett
Manvendra K. Dubey
First published: 24 January 2020
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087047

Read the full text

Abstract

We compare projections of the observed hemispherical mean surface temperature (HadCRUT4.6.0.0) and the ensemble mean of CMIP5 climate models' simulations on a set of standard regression model forcing variables. We find that the volcanic aerosol regression coefficients of the CMIP5 simulations are consistently significantly larger (by 40–49%) than the volcanic aerosol coefficients of the observed temperature. The probability that the observed differences are caused just by chance is much less than 0.01. The overestimate is due to the climate models' response to volcanic aerosol radiative forcing. The largest overestimate occurs in the winter season of each hemisphere. We hypothesize that the models' parameterization of aerosol‐cloud interactions within ice and mixed phase clouds is a likely source of this discrepancy. Furthermore, the models significantly underestimate the effect of solar variability on temperature for both hemispheres.

Plain Language Summary

We compare the observed and climate models' simulated hemispherical mean temperature projections on a set of influencing factors. The influencing factors include the man‐made greenhouse gases and aerosols as well as natural solar variability, volcanic eruptions, and internal climate variability. If the observed and model‐simulated temperatures were the same, the projections would be very similar. We find that the projections are not similar. The climate models overestimate the cooling effect of volcanic activity and underestimate the effect of the variability of solar radiation. Our results point out that future models should improve the treatment of volcanic aerosols and solar variability to increase the reliability of climate change projections.


https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL087047

 

[St. Phatty]

First sun-dimming experiment will test a way to cool Earth

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL085838

HEY !!! My plants need that light.

Maybe they can selectively dim it.

Hard to tell which projects are make-work programs and which one are well-founded science.

We will use technology to fix problems created by technology.

What if everybody got up in the morning and did Tai Chi for 2 hours instead of going to work ?

The Dow might crash, but it's not like everybody would die.

And it might be good for the Greater Tao.

 

[Koondense]

Meanwhile in spain they have 25-27°C in mid winter. Seasons are a thing of the past.



Cheers

 

[hard rain]

First sun-dimming experiment will test a way to cool Earth

Researchers plan to spray sunlight-reflecting particles into the stratosphere, an approach that could ultimately be used to quickly lower the planet’s temperature.

So you are posting solutions to a problem that you don't think exists?

 

[TheForgotten]

Hard to tell which projects are make-work programs and which one are well-founded science.

We will use technology to fix problems created by technology.

Every time mankind attempts to 'fix a problem' with nature, Momma Nature slaps us.
One of these days she's gonna kick us in the nuts....

 

[armedoldhippy]

Every time mankind attempts to 'fix a problem' with nature, Momma Nature slaps us.
One of these days she's gonna kick us in the nuts....

Black Plague. Spanish Flu. i keep expecting ebola to escape from Africa. possibly with human help. the coronavirus currently exploding in China (and elsewhere) could rival them if it mutates to be more deadly & easily transmittable. it does not make me feel all "warm and fuzzy" to learn that China is vastly under-reporting cases/deaths while our govt says "meh. no reason to worry. we are on top of it." only damn things they are good at is wasting time, (our) money, and golden opportunities...we had a local pol that wanted to sue etc a reporter for printing an article saying a student was under observation in hospital for possible coronavirus. (they were clean) imbecile pol wanted the public kept ignorant to "prevent panic." much like the Chinese govt imprisoned/punished the 8 doctors that tried to spread the alarm before it got worse. look how well THAT turned out...

 

[armedoldhippy]

So you are posting solutions to a problem that you don't think exists?

he knows it exists, IMO. he just does not (want to) think humans are responsible for any of the problems nor should they try to take action to try to mitigate the damage (if it is not already past the tipping point).

 

[trichrider]

So you are posting solutions to a problem that you don't think exists?

no.
show my comments implying that any method of geoengineering is a solution.
those were posted to indicate another example ignored by the IPCC models in their claims of global warming.


let's see...
32 different models, none of which agree.
none include cosmic ray data
none include particle precipitation
none include joule heating
none include cloud microphysics
none include ozone depletion

all include altered data, ie: climategate
all include water vapor as anthropogenic forcing...meaning the water vapor is counted as CO2 forcing

then there is the head of the UN IPCC climate group admitting that it isn't about climate but the redistribution of wealth.

...and what about that "pause" you know...the "hiatus" in global warming that made them change from global warming to climate change?

yes there is a problem, but it isn't caused by an incredibly insignificant constituent of the atmosphere called CO2, or the even more incredibly small contribution to the overall atmospheric content of CO2 that mankind provides.

the problem posed is that scientifically illiterate people are in charge of the bureaucracy advocating this farce for political and economic gain.


CO2 is plant food, not a poison.

 

[Sunshineinabag]

theres germs frozen in ice that were around before humans....which means we have no immunity to them most likely.......anthrax has already thawed and killed...Here comes!!!!!

 

[kickarse]

We had a drought, a fire, now we getting some floods
and "man made" Co2 is to blame for all of it

I've heard "man made" Co2 is responsible for the coronavirus

its truly amazing stuff the "man made" Co2, it even causes record cold weather around the globe

 

[hard rain]

no.
show my comments implying that any method of geoengineering is a solution.
those were posted to indicate another example ignored by the IPCC models in their claims of global warming.


let's see...
32 different models, none of which agree.
none include cosmic ray data
none include particle precipitation
none include joule heating
none include cloud microphysics
none include ozone depletion

all include altered data, ie: climategate
all include water vapor as anthropogenic forcing...meaning the water vapor is counted as CO2 forcing

then there is the head of the UN IPCC climate group admitting that it isn't about climate but the redistribution of wealth.

...and what about that "pause" you know...the "hiatus" in global warming that made them change from global warming to climate change?

yes there is a problem, but it isn't caused by an incredibly insignificant constituent of the atmosphere called CO2, or the even more incredibly small contribution to the overall atmospheric content of CO2 that mankind provides.

the problem posed is that scientifically illiterate people are in charge of the bureaucracy advocating this farce for political and economic gain.


CO2 is plant food, not a poison.

CO2 is a poison to humans, high enough concentrations will kill, er hence carbon dioxide poisoning.
Man is contributing more CO2 to the atmoshere.

Yep food for plants. If only we weren't destroying forests and jungle at unprecedented rate. When I first heard of mans role in current climate change one of my first thoughts, was that added plant growth due to CO2 would balance things out. Apparently not.

 

[kickarse]

Plant a tree, I did, planted a heap of them
you can see them sucking the Co2 out of the air, its a glorious site


don't worry I'm going to put it back when I burn the wood

 

[TheForgotten]

NASA's website states that 97% of the world's scientific community agree, global warming is exascerbated by mankind....

I was watching NOVA - Polar Extremes, it explores how there were forests at the poles long ago, how and why this was, and the environmental conditions at the time, great episode which helps allow insight into our changing planet....

 

[Sunshineinabag]

I guess the earths magnetic field can switch or flip flop if memory serves?

 

[Koondense]

Meanwhile the january global temperatures got above the all time record. A great start of the year.

You can think anything you want, temperatures don't care.



Cheers

 

[TheForgotten]

I guess the earths magnetic field can switch or flip flop if memory serves?

https://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/c...ifting-by-40-miles-a-year-might-signal-pole-r

 

[St. Phatty]

theres germs frozen in ice that were around before humans....which means we have no immunity to them most likely.......anthrax has already thawed and killed...Here comes!!!!!

Maybe 20 years ago there was an article in New Yorker magazine about an expedition by biowarfare lab scientists to visit a cemetery site in some Northern country - to obtain samples of the 1918 pathogen.

I think eventually we will see some nasty micro critters that are part plastic. Just because plastic breaks down to the near molecular level, as it gets brittle from UV light.

And because the resulting plastic molecule pieces are now everywhere on earth. A huge variety of plastic molecules & pieces of molecules. Sort of repeating the exercise that occurred one billion years ago, when single celled organisms grew in the mud and begat multi-celled organisms.

Also if you look at "What we are made of", humans and animals ... hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen, carbon, with trace elements of most everything else. Even with all the calcium we think are in our skeletons, we are still only about 0.25% Calcium.

Those trace elements make a huge difference. And now - Mother Nature has a whole new set of Lego Bricks to play with.

 

[trichrider]

More than 440 research papers in 2019 disputed the ‘settled science’ of climate change

The only thing 'settled' is the Left's refusal to even discuss alternative data

Posted on February 4, 2020 in Climate, Politics, science



By Tank Murdoch
(TNS) Despite claims on the Left that the science behind human-caused climate change is “settled,” more than 440 research papers published just last year called their conclusion into question.


According to the NoTricksZone blog, the “scientific papers…cast doubt on the position that anthropogenic CO2 emissions function as the climate’s fundamental control knob…or that otherwise serve to question the efficacy of climate models or the related ‘consensus’ positions commonly endorsed by policymakers and mainstream media sources.”


“Over 440 scientific papers published in 2019 affirm the position that there are significant limitations and uncertainties inherent in our understanding of climate and climate changes, emphasizing that climate science is not settled,” the blog noted.
As further reported by WorldNetDaily:


The papers support four main skeptical positions that question the climate alarm popularized in academia and media:

• Natural mechanisms play a significant role in the net changes in the climate system, including temperature variations, precipitation patterns and weather events. The influence of increased carbon concentrations on climatic changes are less pronounced than currently imagined, the papers show.
• The intensity of warming, hurricanes, droughts sea-level rise, glacier and sea-ice retreat during the modern era is neither unprecedented or remarkable, falling within the range of natural variability.
• The computer climate models are neither reliable nor consistently accurate. The uncertainty and error ranges are irreducible, and projections of future climate states are not supported by observations, making them little more than speculation.
• Policies to reduce emissions such as advocacy for renewables are often ineffective and even harmful to the environment. On the other hand, elevated carbon and a warmer climate provide unheralded benefits to the biosphere, including enhanced crop yields.

By comparison, the Left’s ‘consensus’ regarding human-caused climate change argues:

• Some 110% of the warming since 1950 has been caused by increases in human-caused carbon emissions, leaving natural attribution at close to 0%.
• Modern warming, glacier and sea-ice recession, sea level rise, drought and hurricane intensities are all occurring at unprecedentedly high and rapid rates, and thus endanger the global biosphere and human civilization.
• The climate models are reliable and accurate, and the scientific understanding of the effects of both natural factors carbon concentration changes on climate is “settled enough” that “the time for debate has ended.”
• Wind and solar expansion are safe, effective and environmentally friendly alternatives.

Most mainstream journalists accept the second set of bullet points as the gospel, including NBC News’ Chuck Todd. Last year, he declared that he would no longer give air time to “climate change deniers” on the Sunday news program he hosts, “Meet the Press.”
“This morning, we’re going to do something that we don’t often get to do, dive in on one topic. It’s obviously extraordinarily difficult to do this, as the end of this year has proven, in the era of Trump. But we’re going to take an in-depth look, regardless of that, at a literally Earth-changing subject that doesn’t get talked about this thoroughly on television news, at least, climate change,” he said.


“But just as important as what we are going to do this hour is what we’re not going to do. We’re not going to debate climate change, the existence of it. The Earth is getting hotter. And human activity is a major cause, period. We’re not going to give time to climate deniers. The science is settled, even if political opinion is not,” he concluded.


https://thenationalsentinel.com/202...sputed-the-settled-science-of-climate-change/

 

[St. Phatty]

Meanwhile the january global temperatures got above the all time record. A great start of the year.

You can think anything you want, temperatures don't care.

Cheers

yes, today felt like the first day of spring in Southern Oregon.

was planning on doing outdoor planting for vegies starting March 1, might move that up to Feb. 15.

 

[kickarse]

Its just the weather, same as when its cold here in summer
we are under average for the month again

or is it hot day/week=global warming, and cold for a few months(3 years) is just the weather?