Colorado "legalization" going to affect prices nationwide?

DeezyH · Nov 7, 2012

Puffaluffagus said:
Yeah but IMO, demand will go right through the roof now that it's legal, smoking weed, eating edibles, and just immersing yourself in the culture is going to be THE THING TO DO, everyone will be doing it, wait and see, all thats been holding it back from that until now has been the pigs.
Your prices aren't going to crash, and I'm not worried about the local market here being flooded with out of state weed, because it already is, but high grade locally produced weed stills sells out no problem.

I have to disagree. Weed is already available even to the most socially inept and it's relatively cheap. I would think anyone who wants to smoke is already going to be smoking. Maybe a few older people wanting to relive their college years might give it a go, but not enough to sustain a major spike in consumption. I believe we will see the marketplace for cannabis grow, and perhaps even the percentage of the population that uses grow, but not a large increase in overall consumption. You'll most likely see a lot of the more mature people smoking once or twice a year kind of thing.

TribalSeeds · Nov 7, 2012

Wow... No wonder it took so long. People are fucking retarded!
You dont want it to be legalized? What the fuck is wrong with you?
Some selfish motherfuckers out there! Fuck you all!

unspoken · Nov 7, 2012

Yikesy said:
The fact is, legalization will do much more harm than good, economically. The government, through prohibition, has artificially inflated the price of a product that is easy to produce, and benefits millions of people and local economies alike.

Weed growers spend money!!!!

Weed growers have a nice harvest, and:

1. Go out to nice dinners, leaving nice tips for servers, patronizing local restaurants.
2. Go on vacations. Stimulating tourism, other locale industries.
3. Buy cars, products, etc.

Growers pay taxes on everything they purchase.

Big-pharma/Phillip Morris, take their profits, park their money in tax havens, stocks, and generally hoard millions of dollars that would otherwise be injected into the economy and spread around to millions of people.

This is not the time for legalization, and the voters in Colorado and Washington have forever fucked our beloved industry. Thanks!

You seem to talk a lot about economics, but understand very little about it. Economists call this artificially inflated price inefficient. We don't like inefficiencies. You act like weed growers are the only people that spend money. Are you advocating supply side economics? Screw the common person and the amount that growers spend will make up for everyone else paying way too much for an artificially inflated good? You sound like Mittens, mr. job creator.

As far as phillip morris is concerned, people buy the shitty version of a lot of things. Other people buy the luxury version. Do you understand this? (Income effect and substitution effect?) It's called a niche market. I think the connoisseur market for Mj is about to have it's doors blown off (in a good way) in those states. I could drink coors pisswater, but I drink Chimay blue, my own homebrews, and other microbrews.

Mia · Nov 7, 2012

Like Philthy said not for a while in the very least.
People just don't appreciate how hard it is to grow top top quality herb consistently in large amounts. People are acting like it is, but its just not that easy...
At any rate definitely step your game up!

myiqis55 · Nov 7, 2012

we have a long way to go to put the mexicans out of business. most of the country smokes their shit brick weed. thats a lot of potential customers

FlowerFarmer · Nov 7, 2012

I believe we'll see significant price decreases all over the place - specifically in non-med states where legal bud will flow to still allow for some decent markup.

We've already seen the struggle to maintain good prices on our local produce as greedy large scale west coast exporters cut out many down the line - offering quality CA product direct at a much cheaper price. Those exporting mega volume are happy with making $100 markup on a pound to send it east by the thousands per week.. and that ultimately hurts both the top end distributors and the local growers.

Legalization in CO will only further decrease this markup as the 1st step of the equation is made less risky for lose looking to export illegally, and willing to do so at a much smaller profit percentage.

Not saying I support people being jailed for cannabis. I'm for legalization, but its just unfortunate that many mom and pop operations will lose their livelihood as regulation, taxation, and corporate control take over. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out, but we all know.. everything government and their corporation counterparts touch - gets fucked up.

Those interested in profiting off of the industry are just going to have to adapt or perish. Luckily with legalization there will be lots of opportunities in niche areas for the savvy entrepreneur to thrive.

I do not think legalization is going to fix anything about our economy, as our problems are a result of monetary debasement to fund government deficits. Handing over more of our hard earned money is not going to change their ways.

unspoken · Nov 7, 2012

FlowerFarmer said:
I believe we'll see significant price decreases all over the place - specifically in non-med states where legal bud will flow to still allow for some decent markup.

We've already seen the struggle to maintain good prices on our local produce as greedy large scale west coast exporters cut out many down the line - offering quality CA product direct at a much cheaper price. Those exporting mega volume are happy with making $100 markup on a pound to send it east by the thousands per week.. and that ultimately hurts both the top end distributors and the local growers.

Legalization in CO will only further decrease this markup as the 1st step of the equation is made less risky for lose looking to export illegally, and willing to do so at a much smaller profit percentage.

Not saying I support people being jailed for cannabis. I'm for legalization, but its just unfortunate that many mom and pop operations will lose their livelihood as regulation, taxation, and corporate control take over. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out, but we all know.. everything government and their corporation counterparts touch - gets fucked up.

Those interested in profiting off of the industry are just going to have to adapt or perish. Luckily with legalization there will be lots of opportunities in niche areas for the savvy entrepreneur to thrive.

I do not think legalization is going to fix anything about our economy, as our problems are a result of monetary debasement to fund government deficits. Handing over more of our hard earned money is not going to change their ways.

You make some really good points. Legalization is not going to fix our economy, the same way it's not going to ruin it. Will it be worth less? Probably... but it will be what it should be. Where demand and supply intersect. The equilibrium. More people will be producing and probably more people will be smoking. Where the price will go is where it should be. Don't act like taxes will put producers out of business because in the end the buyers and sellers will end up sharing the tax burden. This is all intro to econ stuff. Look at oil, alcohol, and tobacco companies. Some of the highest taxed items, they seem to be doing all right. Also, from what I understand, a good caregiver who already has a decent sized customer base will be able to (legally) produce much more than joe blow, am I wrong about that?

Useful Idiot · Nov 7, 2012

A little off topic here,but, what is this going to do for the seed industry?? Seems to me if it is legalized in Washington and Colorado, then it will seem logical that buying seeds will also be legal. GREAT!!! Damn,I see bean prices dropping as well. I'll just sell seeds online and ship for free and offer CC as a way to purchase. Just kidding............or am I??? LOL

Scottish Research · Nov 7, 2012

Even though the "Community Organizer" was re-elected, this whole legalization scheme is the ultimate "Pipe Dream": legalization will have to be done on a national level or not at all.

R.Fortune

johnnybravo · Nov 8, 2012

bigshrimp said:
Everyone else panicking and growing double will more likely bottom out the market in the short term lol. See how the feds react, cause even corporations hav e deal with the federal gov. The smart move would be a trade union of growers to organize in order to attempt to moderate pricing and lobby. Its a new game kids adapt or die.

UFW is active in cali with dispensary employees enrolled. i also think trade unions would be beneficial.

Easy7 · Nov 8, 2012

MJ will be taxed three times in CO, that means to get $50 an 8th retail the grower gets $15. Illegal pot will still be sold just as moonshine is "tax free".

Easy7 · Nov 8, 2012

This actually hurts MMJ cause the grower can't ask for much more than $1900 a pound or people will get untaxed buds!

Easy7 · Nov 8, 2012

Useful Idiot said:
A little off topic here,but, what is this going to do for the seed industry?? Seems to me if it is legalized in Washington and Colorado, then it will seem logical that buying seeds will also be legal. GREAT!!! Damn,I see bean prices dropping as well. I'll just sell seeds online and ship for free and offer CC as a way to purchase. Just kidding............or am I??? LOL

I can see seed prices going up at a 75% tax, mostly seeds will be sold untaxed and thus illegal unless there are no proof of tax stamps/stickers.

gingerale · Nov 8, 2012

I predict marijuana prices are actually going to rise in the short term, as the roadblocks on the "demand" side of the equation are immediately lifted, while the legislature has what...a year? six months? to come up with legislation implementing the regulation and licensing of the supply side. In short term there will probably be a large increase in mom and pop sized illegal grows with a corresponding increase in schwag on the market within six months, keeping the low end pricing mostly stable or decreasing, while high grade cannabis will become even more sought after and expensive. This situation will start to reverse itself within 12-24 months as larger facilities begin to be licensed and bring their production online.

In any case it's the low end that's going to suffer the largest price drop first. Those businessmen who are smart and know what they're doing will stay on the high end of the market, taking advantage of their expertise of the plant to bring forth a better and in some way unique product, rather than trying to compete on the low end on mass scale with the huge industrial players.

cyber echo · Nov 8, 2012

I think just like with the wine industry, just because there are 4$ (or even cheaper) wine bottles out there doesnt mean everyone is going to price wine bottles at 4$. You still see a lot of wine WAY over the median price that a lot of ppl buy for the quality/taste/etc.

The same will be true for weed later on, there will be the mass produced shit that sells cheap, and people will fast get bored from it, and the people who are willing to spend more to get special weed (cannaisseurs). The hardcore smokers who were willing to pay top bucks for top shelf will still be willing to pay good money for topshelf bud.

I doubt that the "sky will fall" for growers if legalization comes. Its not like every1 is gonna start growing their own weed, and its not like a big company is gonna mass grow elite cuts either.

Weed isn't a regular commodity thats price is affected by demand/supply because so many factors come into it (potency, looks, smell, taste, etc.) and ppl often don't like smoking the same thing over and over again (atleast the ppl that u care about buying ur top shelf).

I think the market will adjust by itself. The price of normal beaster bud will go down for sure, but i think when the prices hit a certain point where most people won't bother growing indoor weed anymore the rarity of some elite cuts going around might make the gap in price between beaster and top shelf even bigger than it is now.

Who knows...

Obsidian · Nov 8, 2012

Easy7 said:
MJ will be taxed three times in CO, that means to get $50 an 8th retail the grower gets $15. Illegal pot will still be sold just as moonshine is "tax free".

You are completely wrong about this CO tax.
It's only once at 15%
section
(5) Regulation of marijuana.
par.9
(d) THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY SHALL ENACT AN EXCISE TAX TO BE LEVIED UPON MARIJUANA SOLD OR OTHERWISE TRANSFERRED BY A MARIJUANA CULTIVATION FACILITY TO A MARIJUANA PRODUCT MANUFACTURING FACILITY OR TO A RETAIL MARIJUANA STORE AT A RATE NOT TO EXCEED FIFTEEN PERCENT PRIOR TO JANUARY 1, 2017 AND AT A RATE TO BE DETERMINED BY THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY THEREAFTER, AND SHALL DIRECT THE DEPARTMENT TO ESTABLISH PROCEDURES FOR THE COLLECTION OF ALL TAXES LEVIED. PROVIDED, THE FIRST FORTY MILLION DOLLARS IN REVENUE RAISED ANNUALLY FROM ANY SUCH EXCISE TAX SHALL BE CREDITED TO THE PUBLIC SCHOOL CAPITAL CONSTRUCTION ASSISTANCE FUND

it is WA that is taxing ganja 25% 3 times from grower to wholesaler to shop. That's 75% as compared to the 15% CO one time tax from grower to wholesaler.
Get your facts straight before preaching such drival.

greenpinky · Nov 8, 2012

The only people to be sad and hurt are the cartels. Everyone else can suck this
.... weed should be in the Hands of the people. Thank u voter's. Now the real fight starts..

kifmaster · Nov 8, 2012

Yikesy said:
The fact is, legalization will do much more harm than good, economically. The government, through prohibition, has artificially inflated the price of a product that is easy to produce, and benefits millions of people and local economies alike.

Weed growers spend money!!!!

Weed growers have a nice harvest, and:

1. Go out to nice dinners, leaving nice tips for servers, patronizing local restaurants.
2. Go on vacations. Stimulating tourism, other locale industries.
3. Buy cars, products, etc.

Growers pay taxes on everything they purchase.

Big-pharma/Phillip Morris, take their profits, park their money in tax havens, stocks, and generally hoard millions of dollars that would otherwise be injected into the economy and spread around to millions of people.

This is not the time for legalization, and the voters in Colorado and Washington have forever fucked our beloved industry. Thanks!

Was it better for growers when it was illegal? Yes of course profit wise. But if you honestly want weed to be illegal and have people going to jail for it so that you can make a profit, you are just as bad as the DEA. Nobody should be going to jail or getting killed over this plant plain and simple. Is it gonna suck for cash croppers, fuck ya, are we gonna adapt and find out place in the industry? Sure.

unspoken · Nov 8, 2012

. Never mind. Read Obsidian's whole post. "and at a rate determined by the general assembly thereafter" Bottom line is the only people hurt by the co. law seem to be cash croppers. Smokers and growers for personal use or selling a little bit here and there should see business as usual(minus the jail time), and add huge benefit to the schools in co.

kifmaster · Nov 8, 2012

If it keeps moving towards recreational legalization nationwide, the growers that will be making the big bucks are the ones with the biggest brains, not the biggest balls.

Colorado "legalization" going to affect prices nationwide?

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