NFL 2014

[iTarzan]

I don't bet but I like to pick games vs the spread for fun so I follow the odds. Over the years I have been suckered by a pick that looks easy. A game that when you look at the spread you instantly say "that isn't enough points, they can cover that easy". Then everyone bets them and loses and the bookies make a killing.

This week that game is Chargers -7 over Raiders. That should be a lock. DANGER! DANGER WILL ROBINSON! I have a gut feeling Oakland will beat the spread.

Denver -9 is steep but they can still cover that and probably some more. But I would stay away because the Jets have been bad mojo for Manning over the years.

Seattle -7.5 (I have seen -9). That seems too much to me. Dallas should cover that IMHO because of their RB. I would take Dallas. Murray will rumble and Dez is going to toast Sherman. Romo hits TE often and Seattle loses at home.

Rams at home are going to beat San Fran who is -3 at St. Louis.

Raiders cover and Cowboys and Rams win.

 

[RetroGrow]

My favorites this week are Denver, new England, and the over on philly and NYG.

Less confident but I still bet on san diego, and Detroit.

Agree on Denver & San Diego. Am looking @ New England. Buffalo can be a tough place to play, and they beat Detroit last week on the road. However, just read on ESPN: " New England has won 25 of the last 27 meetings, including five straight while averaging 39.0 points." N.E. has owned them over the last 10 years+, but then, N.E. was much better in past years. I'll consider that one. Might watch first half and bet at half time. Not sure.
Vikings are a hard team to get a handle on. They can be tough @ home. I will lay off that one.
I've never had much luck with over/under. I will watch it and decide @ halftime.
Like the Packers, based on Aaron Rodgers play of late. He is on fire, and has 12 TD passes, as opposed to Tannahill's 6, but Packers run defense is pretty bad, and Miami runs well, so I have to think on that one. Maybe another wait 'till halftime.
Gotta go with the Ravens against Tampa Bay. Much more offense, much more defense. Tampa's defense is bad, so Flacco should have a big game.
Jake Locker has been paying with a sore thumb on his throwing hand. Titans and Jaguars both bad, so after reading about Locker's injury, I might lay off that one.
So my top picks would be: Chargers, Denver (although that is a lot of points) and the Ravens. Chargers have been good to me, so I am sticking with them against a very bad Raiders team.

 

[RetroGrow]

A game that when you look at the spread you instantly say "that isn't enough points, they can cover that easy". Then everyone bets them and loses and the bookies make a killing.

The bookies don't make a killing on one game or another. They don't care who wins. The spread is determined by the betting. If more action goes on one side, the spread changes to reflect that. Bookies want equal action on both sides, as they make their money on the vigorish. If a bookie has too much action on one side, he lays those bets off on another, larger book. They make their money, no matter who wins. You are paying to bet, and the house ALWAYS wins.

 

[Ottoman]

Cinncy -6.5 and Da Bears +3

 

[iTarzan]

The bookies don't make a killing on one game or another. They don't care who wins. The spread is determined by the betting. If more action goes on one side, the spread changes to reflect that. Bookies want equal action on both sides, as they make their money on the vigorish. If a bookie has too much action on one side, he lays those bets off on another, larger book. They make their money, no matter who wins. You are paying to bet, and the house ALWAYS wins.

I completely agree with that and 999 times out of 1000 that is what they do. But every now and then they have a game that the line never changes and it stays at a number that doesn't make sense. Then in the end the world bet on one team and the bookies killed it. Like they know something.

You have to agree there is no way that the Chargers should not cover 7. That line should have moved because all the money has to be going on the Chargers. It just does. But there it is at -7. It should have been -14 right out the box.

There is something fishy about that -7. What do they know that we don't?

Don't you think that number should be higher?

 

[Ottoman]

IMO what they're going off is history and that is after week 6 historically in the NFL bad teams with 0 or 1 win are excellent ATS. This is probably because even bad teams win 4-6 games a year and this is the NFL any team can win on any given day they're all professionals.

 

[Storm Shadow]

RetroGrow....Your NFL insight is pretty good bro..... you've been holding out on us the last few seasons!

You called that Jets game pretty accurate bro...could have banked on that all the way

Good shit !

 

[yortbogey]

any opinions on which team should go to LA
seems to be a big conversation this week after the owners meeting

I'd say return the RAMS to LA....where they belong...

best way to honor the game,and conference history....

 

[Ottoman]

get the jags out of jacksonville IMO, no free agents want to go their same as rookies being drafted outta college, if you at least put them in LA you can attract high profile free agents with marketing deals and what not and build a better team thru free agency. The way they're going now they won't be a franchise in 5 years.

 

[whadeezlrg]

Jags are going to London, mark my words.

Rams back to LA is what I'm hoping for, I would love to go to a niner game close to home every season.

Raiders are gonna be homeless after this season and have a somewhat established fan base in so cal, Oakland doesn't wan't to give them a new stadium and probably isn't super concerned about losing an embarrassing franchise when they've got the A's and the warriors playing in the same parking lot...to me they make the most sense to go to LA, although that's really the last thing I'd like to see...it would curse so cal to future generations of raider fans.

spreads are tighter on the raiders bolts because it's 1- a division game, 2- as otto said even bad teams can show up, 3- these games are often trap kinda games, meaning the bolts come in thinking they will show up, handle business, and be back in dago the same night celebrating...the raiders are still talented enough to be playing in the nfl after all, 4- The spread would be -10 if the game was being played on a neutral field, home field advantage automatically count's for 3 points.

 

[rasputin]

Talk of a team in LA reminds me of this little bit from an old Hunter Thompson article...

That is what happens in sweltering cities with no team in the NFL -- like Los Angeles, where high-dollar gambling is by far the most popular sport in town. Millions of dollars go up for grabs every weekend.

"Real football fans were happy when the Rams and the Raiders left town," Jack Nicholson told me. "Now we can watch the damn games on TV, instead of driving all the way out to Anaheim, or down to that monstrous Coliseum. Nobody wants an NFL team in L.A., except maybe the TV networks."

That is because of the "mandatory TV blackouts" that the league imposes on any Market where the local team fails to sell all the seats in its "home stadium." The L.A. Coliseum, for instance, seats slightly more than 100,000, and neither the Raiders nor the Rams ever had a sellout crowd. "It was a hateful situation to put yourself in," Jack said. "Sitting out there in the smog with a mob of criminal swine full of warm beer. At a Raiders game, you could get beaten and robbed without ever leaving your seat. It was like an outdoor jail."

My picks for this week

Seahawks
Giants
Lions
Chargers
49ers
Broncos
Browns
Bills
Bengals
Titans
Packers
Bucs
Falcons
Cardinals

 

[whadeezlrg]

rams will come to LA, raiders will move to st. Louis and be renamed(and thus leave the worst fan base in the nfl looking for new teams to associate themselves with) and that will make the afc west regionally closer, and the nfc west will also be regionally closer....seems win win. TV blackout rules have just been changed too...LA needs a team, the TV success of the lakers/kings/dodgers is high...what would keep that from transitioning into football?

I've heard talk of the chawks being moved back into afc west(I know that's where they spent a lot of time but no way is the nfl going to lose out on the sea v sf rivalry at least for the near future while both teams can play) and the raiders moved to la and being placed in the nfc west(aint gonna happen, the nfl knows niners vs raider games end up in violence, not gonna happen 2x a season imho) and the city of LA knows that raider fans make up approx. 95% of all felons in the area...why would they want to get em all in one place unless they're going to be doing 8 massive gang sweeps every year

 

[Bababooey]

Thanks for your answers Miracolous Meds, Sisu and Bababoey,

I am realy fascinated, yesterday I saw some College Football Playoffs, it was a little bit easier to watch. I have to get some routine to understand whats happening exactly on the field.

I thought about "my" Team. Hm, an NYC Team? I´ve got a hat from the Dolphins (Season 1990/91), the very little football Team of my hometown is called "Seahawks" also. Dallas is no go, it´s like Bayern Munich in Soccer, I am more for the Outsiders. Denver, Colts, 49ners? And than I thought I got it, Green Bay! A smaller town, not rich, in the North, yes!

But in reality, I think, I don´t cheer for a Special Team, in this season. Its so new and so much, I look game by game an decide for what Team I am, it has to be oposite to my wifes Team .

Next weekend once is clear, GO SEAHAWKS!!

All the 49er fans won't be happy youre cheering the Seahawks. Plus Seahawks fans call their team the 'Hawks, not Seahawks. Because theyre ashamed of the sea?

An added plus if you become a Green Bay fan is you get to wear a cheese head hat. Do you like cheese? Then you will like being a Cheesehead.

RetroGrow....Your NFL insight is pretty good bro..... you've been holding out on us the last few seasons!

You called that Jets game pretty accurate bro...could have banked on that all the way

Good shit !

Does Retro have the magic touch this season? Should we ride Retro like Secretariat for the next few weeks?
Im skeptical of the picks of any Jets fan. theres a black cloud hanging over that team. maybe its not their fans' fault, but theres guilt by association.

Talk of a team in LA reminds me of this little bit from an old Hunter Thompson article...



My picks for this week

Seahawks
Giants
Lions
Chargers
49ers
Broncos
Browns
Bills
Bengals
Titans
Packers
Bucs
Falcons
Cardinals

Took Houston +3 v. Indy (lost, thanks Ryan Fitzpatrick. youve been shit for the better part of 2 years and nothings changed).
Rams +3 vs 49ers
Tampa +3 vs Ravens
Bills +3 vs Patriots
Dolphins +3 vs Packers

Went 1-2 last week. dont expect to do much better with these odds (eff you sportsbooks!) but we'll see.

 

[Fly by Night]

Pizza Sunday?

Pizza Sunday?

Mabe knot

 

[whadeezlrg]

us 49ers fans already know that any fan of the chawks have only been fans for up to that last year and a half...it's just expected...lol j/k herman the german, if you like a team like em, and trash talk your rivals! it's a whole lot of fun!...in all honesty though, I'm fairly certain that the jaguars will end up in Europe within the next 5-10years, if you take em as your team now you will be an engraved EU jags fan when they finally make it home across the pond...plus when/if they have success you can have the satisfaction of knowing you supported them when they sucked...if/when Justin Blackmon returns I can see the Blackmon/Bortles connection being huge...draft a stud running back and some bad ass o-linemen...they kinda need a vet in at least one of the skill positions to help the youngsters though

 

[RetroGrow]

I completely agree with that and 999 times out of 1000 that is what they do. But every now and then they have a game that the line never changes and it stays at a number that doesn't make sense. Then in the end the world bet on one team and the bookies killed it. Like they know something.

You have to agree there is no way that the Chargers should not cover 7. That line should have moved because all the money has to be going on the Chargers. It just does. But there it is at -7. It should have been -14 right out the box.

There is something fishy about that -7. What do they know that we don't?

Don't you think that number should be higher?

Well, if that's true, you should bet the house on the Chargers. The line changes according to the betting. If there is an overload on the Chargers, the spread will go up. They are playing on the road in a very hostile stadium. An early turnover, a fumble, dropped kick, or pick six, and they could be behind by 14 with the spread. The ball takes funny bounces. But, Chargers are still my #1 pick. Phillip River's passing has been on point. Chargers have been flying under the radar. They are not considered one of the elite teams, but they are playing like one. I'll probably parlay the Chargers and Broncos. Also like the Ravens to swamp Tampa Bay. Ravens by 3.5. Don't see how Tampa Bay can beat Flacco & the Ravens. Tampa is giving up 32 points and over 400 yards per game. How are they going to stop Flacco?

 

[RetroGrow]

Tried to bet Patriots, and they would not take the bet, because of an injury to Tom Brady @ practice on Friday. They said they will have a line tomorrow before the game. Bradys going to play, but the Pats have other significant injuries. Their center is out, which means the whole line will have to be juggled. That could be a problem for them.
From ESPN:
"Brady's addition to the injury report could mean that he tweaked the injury at practice on Friday.

In the event that Brady cannot start for the Patriots, rookie quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, the only other quarterback on the team's roster, will play in his place. Garoppolo came in during the Patriots' blowout loss to Kansas City in the fourth quarter and went 6-for-7 for 70 yards and a touchdown pass to tight end Rob Gronkowski.

Elsewhere on the injury front, the Patriots will be without Brady's man in the middle, rookie center Bryan Stork. Stork suffered a concussion on Thursday and did not participate in Friday's practice. Stork was listed as questionable Friday before being downgraded Saturday. The Patriots will have to shift around an offensive line that appeared to have finally found some continuity.

Cornerback Brandon Browner (ankle) did not participate in practice for the second straight day Friday and was downgraded to out on Saturday, as was defensive lineman Dominique Easley (shoulder/knee).

Players listed as questionable include linebackers Jamie Collins (thigh) and Dont'a Hightower (knee), and wide receiver and core special teamer Matthew Slater (shoulder).

Defensive end Chandler Jones (shoulder) and safety Devin McCourty (rib) have been limited in practice all week and are probable for Sunday's game.

Core special teamer Nate Ebner (finger) and rookie offensive lineman Cameron Fleming (finger) already have been ruled out of the game."
Lot of guys hurt.

Re: Chargers/Raiders-Just look at the point differential:
W-L PF PA HM AW STREAK
SDG 4-1 26.6 12.6 3-0 1-1 W4
OAK 0-4 12.8 25.8 0-2 0-2 L4

Chargers average more than double the points scored, and less than half the points allowed. Raiders scoring only 12 points a game and giving up almost 26. Chargers scoring 26 a game, and giving up only 12. Complete opposites. Phillip Rivers having MVP type season. He is an elite passer. Accuracy impressive. All in on the Chargers.
Spread on Jets/Denver just went back up to 10, from 9, from 8. Big difference between 10 & 9. Hoping it drops a point before I get in.
Sticking with the Ravens, and love betting against bad teams, like the Bucs, Jets, Raiders. That's going to be my triple parlay.

 

[Ottoman]

Took Houston +3 v. Indy (lost, thanks Ryan Fitzpatrick. youve been shit for the better part of 2 years and nothings changed).
Rams +3 vs 49ers
Tampa +3 vs Ravens
Bills +3 vs Patriots
Dolphins +3 vs Packers

Went 1-2 last week. dont expect to do much better with these odds (eff you sportsbooks!) but we'll see.

No shame in losing baba as long as your not one of those dudes who talks about his picks after the game has started or is over, those guys always seem to be winning and never losing .....I respect all your picks this week and loving the fins +3 and tampa +3, TB is such a different team with Glennon at QB......I was able to score Cinncy -6.5 and da bears +3 for some action today....might put in a couple smaller bets in a little bit, i'll be sure to post my losers if I do.

 

[Miraculous Meds]

baba, otto, I really don't get any of those pics except, well no I wouldn't take any of them, matter of fact I wen the opposite on most of them. But I don't think I know much so lets see who gets lucky. gl guys.

I hope brady is going to play though. Somebody needs to shine a light in ortons eye again. lol.. jk... I always wondered if some idiot could do that and what would happen to him. he could have been the reason millions of dollars were won or lost.

 

[Bababooey]

I would wish you good luck as well but then that would mean bad luck to me. so i cant do that, no. but then no gambler wants to wish bad luck on another gambler, thats bad energy.

i hope you lose all your bets, MM....

what, who said that? was that you ottoman? dammit, stop invading my posts.

Bears are playing the Falcons in Atlanta this afternoon. The falcons have a pretty terrible defense but the bears have found ways to lose games in interesting ways this season. im hoping they work out the suckiness early on for an inspired run at the end of the season. im hoping.