Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[NorC@liGrower]

Only thing I've been playing since the Fed minutes came out on 5-22 are SPY puts. Up 100%+ since yesterday. Looks like SPY ready for another 5% drop from here at the least. Leading/good stocks simply cannot sustain any moves to the upside and this won't change any time soon.

Yesum...I started trading/investing around 1992. Some of it is simply staring at a monitor for 8 hours a day day after day after day watching numerous stocks and how they act. Learn basic chart patterns like head and shoulders, ascending/descending/symmetrical triangles, double/triple bottoms/tops, etc. Keep it simple with price and volume. RSI is another good indicator. Moving average crosses are usually a bit late so RSI good to follow as a leading indicator especially when dealing with something like options.

It ain't easy. Your investing/trading style should fit your personality. I say don't even think about options until you get good at stocks. Options are multi dimensional and CrAzY. You're dealing with time value/decay also. Spreads on many options are a bit tough to swallow. Enter some positions and down 20% at the click of a button. Volatility can work for/against you. You can be dead on with the stock doing something and if you're a day or two off sometimes with your entry you can miss the move. A 10% move in a stock can easily translate into a 100% move in the underlying option...IF you get the right strike lol.

Investors Business Daily is a great resource to learn how to invest and how to locate solid companies/stocks. William O'Neill been at it since before I was born. Trading is another story. After you learn daily charting then go intraday for better entries.

Learn basic candlestick charting.

I've seen people turn $500 into $75,000 in 24 hours with options. If they held that position another 24 hours would have been $150,000. Getting a 1,000% return is great and not easy. Best I ever did was about 800%. You're doing good if you make ANY money with options.

Paper trading is wonderful yet does not take into consideration any emotions. Simulators are OK. Real life a different story.

Good Luck!

 

[yesum]

Thanks, btw I dumped my long etf on your advice first thing monday and have saved my self a bit of money.

Wish I had taken a short one to replace it but was not feeling it. Might still do that as summer is here and stocks do crap during it for the most part.

I used to subscribe to IBD and watched the rsi stocks and all that, have his book too. vix, mclellan oscillator, rsi and other stuff I am aware of. Have not done any candlestick but know of it. Have studied chart patterns and moving averages but never traded off that.

I guess you are saying you have come up with something after years of study and can not just give me your insight in a few paragraphs. I am just guessing when I trade, but it is after years of following the markets ups and downs and getting a feel for things. Similar but yours is more scientific and I guess better.

If you have 1 or 2 solid technical indicators that you will go to time after time and they are something I could grasp, would like to hear of that.

I am guessing you have many indicators and pick and choose from them to make a guess on the market so you can not share something like that....

 

[NorC@liGrower]

Thanks, btw I dumped my long etf on your advice first thing monday and have saved my self a bit of money.

Wish I had taken a short one to replace it but was not feeling it. Might still do that as summer is here and stocks do crap during it for the most part.

I used to subscribe to IBD and watched the rsi stocks and all that, have his book too. vix, mclellan oscillator, rsi and other stuff I am aware of. Have not done any candlestick but know of it. Have studied chart patterns and moving averages but never traded off that.

I guess you are saying you have come up with something after years of study and can not just give me your insight in a few paragraphs. I am just guessing when I trade, but it is after years of following the markets ups and downs and getting a feel for things. Similar but yours is more scientific and I guess better.

If you have 1 or 2 solid technical indicators that you will go to time after time and they are something I could grasp, would like to hear of that.

I am guessing you have many indicators and pick and choose from them to make a guess on the market so you can not share something like that....

Wish there was an easy answer and there is not. Mainly saying in this thread that pundits like Mr. Creosote and Spastic Gramps sit on the sidelines and rail against the markets and don't trade/invest a frikkin penny. Just 2 talking heads like those that appear on CNBC. Maybe one day we will wake up and the world financial system has crashed and they will say I told you so lol. Until then just 2 more clowns.

I've been in cash since 5-21 except for some SPY puts and has served me well. Looks like another leg down coming. Haven't made a major bet to the downside yet. Today was a bit fugly.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Mainly saying in this thread that pundits like Mr. Creosote and Spastic Gramps sit on the sidelines and rail against the markets and don't trade/invest a frikkin penny.

LOL. You really like to drop our two names don't you?

I use to invest in the market before central banks took over. Ya know, before when technicals and fundamentals actually mattered to the market and it wasn't one big herd Buying the Fucking Dip frontrunning the printing press.

Prior to the housing bubble explosion I invested in housing. Sold the last one in 2006 and went into cash. At the same time I own 25-30% equity share in two small business. One and oilfield service company and an upscale bottle service type place lounge/bar. I have a couple of others that were busts, but I win more times than I lose and my wins are bigger than my loses so that's all that matters. I continue to reinvest in the service company because it is raining money in the oilfield right now.

I guess what I'm getting at is I invest in the economy and tangible assets (with some money in the Bernanke's casino) and that I'm not on the sidelines at all. It would behoove you to stop trying to call me out because you just end up looking like a fool.

I keep a constant eye on the markets so I can better manage my businesses. And I'm not railing against the markets hoping that they crash, I'm making too much money right now. I want this bubble to keep going on as long as it can, but I'm under no delusions that as soon as central banks lose their credibility (as the BOJ is doing and soon the Fed) that this farce will fall on its face and whispers that the Emperor wears no clothes will become a roar.

But until then I will enjoy my profits as I hope you do.

Just keep Buying The Fucking Dip and you'll be ok until central banks lose credibility.

 

[Stonefree69]

Just keep Buying The Fucking Dip and you'll be ok until central banks lose credibility.

Not a bad call!




Oh yeah, it's 4:20!

 

[SpasticGramps]

Not a bad call!

That's been the name of the game at Bernanke and Company's table since 2009. BTFD until the markets lose confidence in the central banks final all in bubbles bubbles everywhere stick save.

Given all the volatility (especially in basketcase Japan) recently the Chief Investment Officer of the world's biggest bond fund PIMCO is getting a little nervous.

El-Erian: What the markets are trying to tell usCNN Money

I worry that, rather than signal positive handoffs, recent changes are indicative of a gradual erosion in the trust that investors have placed in the power and effectiveness of central banks.

Buy The Fucking Dip and be out the exits before institutional circle jerk money loses confidence in the "print to prosperity" Keynesian wet dream.

 

[yesum]

Been thinking of going short here, what with summer weakness pattern, and the way the market has been selling off on any hint of fed cutting down money flow.

Anyone doing this and have any technical basis to back it up?

 

[ronbo51]

Every short gets slammed by HFT bots and smoked out. Lots of folks have lost lots on shorting this run.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Excellent video of what will become classic Jim Cramer sociopath behavior on display and goes to ronbo point about HFT sniffing out shorts.

Santelli Schools Cramer & Co. On The High Freaks CNBC

It started as your everyday hexagonal discussion on CNBC with the anchors up-in-arms over the fact that (shocker) some firms can pay for early access to critical economic data items. The disdain for the 'rich' was palpable as Bernstein, Sullivan, and then Cramer all exclaimed both their amazement and surprise that this was even possible.

That was when Santelli stepped into the ring and explained - in what was a relatively well-behaved exclamation - that not only was the fact that early data releases were well-known to every real trader (as opposed to those who pretend for TV) but that the issue was absolutely not about 'early access' but about HFT.

When we first brought the perils of HFT to the attention of the broader trading community in 2009, it was the stuff of conspiracy theory - but now (as with many other things) it is conspiracy fact and in a few short minutes, Rick Santelli showed off his co-hosts ignorance of the real market and opened many new eyes to the damage that HFT can do in a market that is, well, anything but Reg-FD fair and balanced to all.

Anyone look at Japan's markets? Crashed 6%. Entered bear market territory. Yen and bonds are trading like a penny stock. Some banker must have pulled the wrong lever.

Or maybe they pulled the right lever......?

 

[SpasticGramps]

Bank Of England's Haldane: "We've Intentionally Blown The Biggest Bond Bubble In History"

The Bank of England's Andrew Haldane is not a man to mince his words (see here and here) but perhaps the excess truthiness in his latest testimony to British MPs may have many questioning his ability as a central-banker (unable to lie when it is required). "Let's be clear. We've intentionally blown the biggest government bond bubble in history," Haldane said. "We need to be vigilant to the consequences of that bubble deflating more quickly than [we] might otherwise have wanted."

As Canadian Carney steps into the BoE head shoes, it seems Haldane has some (indirect) advice there also, as The Guardian reports his comments that the committee had not been "entirely free" of political interference during the crisis; and that he hoped to "improve decision-making," in a less hierarchical, more diverse, somewhat humbler organization."

The "biggest risk to global financial stability... would be a disorderly reversion in the yields of government bonds globally." he said, adding that there had been "shades of that" in recent weeks.

 

[Stonefree69]

Another dip?! About 1,600 was the last bottom on 6/6, see how that gets tested... When bullish & "chasing" a short term low keep stops close. Better to have a few small losers, the big winners will more than make up for it. Day trading not for me, I place orders at end of day or maybe very early. No chasing the markets during the day.

 

[NorC@liGrower]

For me SPY is one indicator away that I use for a strong upswing to about 170. I'm like 75% bullish short term until then.

 

[SpasticGramps]

US bond markets have gotten violent. 10y touched 2.47% almost a 50bps move in a few days!

Looks like the market is starting to go through the shakes from the potential removal of the monetary heroin.

China's repo market locked up last night too (same thing that happened to US in the financial crisis). Rates went up to 25% and liquidity disappeared.

Oh yeah Greece needs another bailout hahahaha. IMF just threatened to cut off funding.

Are central banks starting to lose it?

Interesting thing about this sell off is that there is no rotation from stocks and into bonds. Markets have decided US bonds are no longer flight to safety if Bernanke isn't going to backstopping the market.

 

[Tripsick]

Wait... if they stop printing money the economy dies? weird its like it was never better

 

[Stonefree69]

Double dip?

[iframe1]RfprRZQxWps[/iframe1]

 

[HenDokuYaku]

China's manufacturing is down as well. That ain't good news. It's inevitable what happens when the heroin (fed reserve) gets tight and there is nothing besides debt to support it.

That's why the premiums on options are so insane in many places right now. The market knows...denial ain't just a river in Egypt.

 

[NorC@liGrower]

China's manufacturing is down as well. That ain't good news. It's inevitable what happens when the heroin (fed reserve) gets tight and there is nothing besides debt to support it.

That's why the premiums on options are so insane in many places right now. The market knows...denial ain't just a river in Egypt.

Yeah like last month was the first down month for China manufacturing in 7 months or maybe even more.

As for the heroin thing markets go up and markets go down. Cycles been there forever. Corporations sitting on a LOT of cash and the expectation is that as the Fed tapers companies will start to put that money to good use as, according to some, underlying indicators in the economy improve.

Premiums on options are higher because volatility has increased.

I mean seriously markets at all time highs and since we're pulling back this is the end? Not saying you said that HenDokYaku. Just time to wring out some of the excess.

 

[SpasticGramps]

BTFD

Submitted by Detlev Schlichter of DetlevSchlichter.com,

A new meme is spreading in financial markets: The Fed is about to turn off the monetary spigot. US Printmaster General Ben Bernanke announced that he might start reducing the monthly debt monetization program, called ‘quantitative easing’ (QE), as early as the autumn of 2013, and maybe stop it entirely by the middle of next year. He reassured markets that the Fed would keep the key policy rate (the Fed Funds rate) at near zero all the way into 2015.

Still, the end of QE is seen as the beginning of the end of super-easy policy and potentially the first towards normalization, as if anybody still had any idea of what ‘normal’ was.

Fearing that the flow of nourishing mother milk from the Fed could dry up, a resolutely unweaned Wall Street threw a hissy fit and the dummy out of the pram.


So far, so good. There is only one problem: it won’t happen.

 

[Tripsick]

hmm i wonder when its going to stop..

CNN:
U.S. stocks tumbled to their lowest levels in two months Monday, as persistent worries about the Fed easing up on stimulus were exacerbated by a plunge in Chinese stocks.

 

[SpasticGramps]

China is having a full blown liquidity crisis.

Markets will plunge until Bernanke says he will continue to print forever.

The old Bernanke put was at ~SP 1050. If the Dow goes back to 10,000 everyone and their grandmother will be begging Bernanke to keep printing.

It doesn't matter that they haven't actually stopped doing anything. If he says he's going to slow it down and stop it later, traders will head to exits to frontrun the move and immediately price in the terminal end to QE. It's a Greater Fools Market. No one wants to be left holding the bag of shit when the massive bubble pops.

Although, we will see QE99 before it's all over with. By then markets may have lost faith in Bernanke's unicorns and rainbows magic experiment.