Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[rasputin]

Let's repeat that. In this rigged market good new is ok, bad news is better. Yeah....this is going to all end well.

The free markets central planners know best, Gramps. The rest of us are just pushing our rock up their hill.

 

[Madrus Rose]

Markets are soaring on the news that the ECB is going to outright monetize short term bonds for Spain, Italy, and the rest of the insolvent eurozone.

Jobs report was pretty shitty this morning so this is good news. Market should rally higher given that the shittier the economy the more likely the FED is to QE3.

Let's repeat that. In this rigged market good new is ok, bad news is better. Yeah....this is going to all end well.

lol ,

The ECB & Bad News=Good News on top of the "back-to-school" rally , have you seen these squeezes they're putting on right & left for some of the retails like ANN , GPS , JOSB & MW yesterday , then LULU today ? Even Coals like WLT & steels bouncing on China's $180Bil infrastructre news , they were all pretty bottomed . Cant fight the central banks & China for now , they went after running up all the usual suspects like GOOG which they know will have a great Q3 on high search traffic in an election year , the 700 calls were up 3000% yesterday .

Friend made the LNKD 115 calls early this week went from 0.20 to over $5 then on CMG noted bottoming at 290 , screamed up today with PCLN .

 

[Madrus Rose]

This was the Chipotle results on positions taken before the ECB announcement , one takes contrarian trades pays off big sometimes , CMG was already double bottomed at 290, heavily shorted , upgraded so the "Boyz" went after it like PCLN , here's how to make $20k in two days pretty much overnight.

CMG ~ Just closed some of the 305s @ $14 from .15/.25

09/07/12 Sold to Close -1 CMG Call Cmg Sep 07 2012 305.00 Call CMG Sep 07 2012 305.00 Call $14.00 $9.10 $0.08 ....$1,390.82

09/07/12 Sold to Close -1 CMG Call Cmg Sep 07 2012 305.00 Call CMG Sep 07 2012 305.00 Call $14.00 $0.15 $0.08 ....$1,399.77

09/07/12 Sold to Close -1 CMG Call Cmg Sep 07 2012 305.00 Call CMG Sep 07 2012 305.00 Call $14.00 $0.15 $0.08 ....$1,399.77

09/07/12 Sold to Close -6 CMG Call Cmg Sep 07 2012 305.00 Call CMG Sep 07 2012 305.00 Call $14.00 $0.90 $0.36 ....$8,398.74

09/07/12 Sold to Close -1 CMG Call Cmg Sep 07 2012 305.00 Call CMG Sep 07 2012 305.00 Call $14.00 $0.15 $0.08.... $1,399.77

09/07/12 Sold to Close -1 CMG Call Cmg Sep 07 2012 305.00 Call CMG Sep 07 2012 305.00 Call $14.00 $0.15 $0.08 ...$1,399.77

09/07/12 Sold to Close -2 CMG Call Cmg Sep 07 2012 305.00 Call CMG Sep 07 2012 305.00 Call $14.00 $0.30 $0.13 ....$2,799.57

09/07/12 Sold to Close -1 CMG Call Cmg Sep 07 2012 305.00 Call CMG Sep 07 2012 305.00 Call $14.00 $0.15 $0.08 ....$1,399.77

 

[yesum]

If you have any of those good trades ^^ in advance so I can trade them, throw them out there Madrus.

I would be willing to bet on one.

Think I will stay long for next week, more of the same I hope. Bad jobs # equals fed stimulus or so the traders think. I also think it means Romney has a shot and they would prefer him.

 

[SpasticGramps]

lol ,

The ECB & Bad News=Good News on top of the "back-to-school" rally , have you seen these squeezes they're putting on right & left for some of the retails like ANN , GPS , JOSB & MW yesterday , then LULU today ?

Volatility is popping. Bernanke and Draghi are steamrollers on the shorts.

 

[SpasticGramps]

The market is on the edge of it's seat and salivating for QE3 (really 4). Expect now, finally, institutional market participants are starting to scratch their heads wondering if this one is really going to work. Slowly realizing that this type of fiat monetization of sovereign debt eventually fails when the math fails.

The Scary Math Behind The Mechanics Of QE3, And Why Bernanke's Hands May Be Tied

When it comes to the NEW QE, everyone has an opinion, and most seem to believe that the NEW QE will come next week, now that the US economy added "just" 96,000 people (but, but, the unemployment rate 'fell'). Certainly, and far more importantly, if the most recent FOMC minutes are any guide, the Fed shares this view. Sadly, as so often happens, most, and this includes the FOMC's various voting members, have once again made up their minds without actually evaluating the limitations posed by simple math. After all it is far easier to form an opinion, and actually think about the underlying facts later. The math, for those who actually have looked at the numbers behind the scenes, is scary (in UBS' words, not ours).

Here is the math.

As part of its Operation Twist, the Fed is buying long-term bonds, and selling short-term (0-3 years) bonds. As we reported in April, the biggest limitation for the Fed is that it is rapidly running out of short-term bonds to sell. There is a fix to this: the Fed will simply have to sell longer dated bonds from its SOMA portfolio, first up to 5 years, then 7, and so on. Of course, this will also force the Fed to extend its ZIRP language by an appropriate amount of time, through 2017, then 2019, and so on (which also means all bets that the Fed will hike any time in the next 5 years will be immediately null and void, and one can position accordingly in the Eurodollar space).

This move, however, will simply permit the Fed to extend Twist 2 beyond its year-end maturity. As a reminder, the primary role of Twist, aside from that stated one which is to keep the curve as flat as possible (i.e., boost housing which as we showed yesterday is not working, as refis have plunged recently despite record low mortgage rates), is to absorb virtually all the long-end supply: after all, it is all about the funding of the US $1 trillion+ annual budget deficit.

Said otherwise, when it comes to the 10-30 year sector the Fed is already monetizing all new issuance. This is part of the entire flow argument which we have been discussing for the past 6 months, and why we, correctly, say that Operation Twist is really QE 3 and QE 3.5 (for the recent extension of Twist). So far so good.

Here comes the important part.

Three weeks ago we presented a video courtesy of Stone McCarthy which showed a timelapse of the "takeover" of the Fed as the primary holder of public debt. For those short on time, here is how the Fed's holdings portfolio looked like then...

 

[Nondual]

Bad jobs # equals fed stimulus or so the traders think

That stimulus has been coming for awhile. For me means gold and silver will move. I was expecting this and also PM stocks were pretty washed out. I've been playing RIC which I got stopped out of a few months back. Around 1 is where The Street downgraded from a Buy to Hold and probably a little lower in the chart. I'm so shocked they were late ha ha. The first arrow is where I nibbled. Around 2 is where The Street downgraded from a Hold to Sell so knew it was ready to make a move lol. It might have been just after I nibbled when they downgraded. I'm guessing they were also trying to get some weak holders to dump so they could pick up more cheaper or at least some of their clients could pick up some cheaper. When I saw their Sell revision I was ready to pounce. The second arrow is where I bought in heavier with long term 2.50 calls when it hit it's 20 MA. There was virtually NO premium on these calls going out to February. I stay away from out of the money calls/puts now and play things more conservatively and hoping RIC pauses and pulls back to about 4.50 and finds support at it's 10 or 20 MA. If not it'll go to 5.00 and might take profits there. I figured this thing is good to at least make a move to 5.00 over the short term. I'm also in TRX calls right now and feel that one has a 1 point move in it based on the technical formation. I like that up volume is accelerating out of that ascending triangle. Both RIC and TRX are solid mining stocks IMO.

I was looking at getting into some calls on BNNY Thursday before it popped on Friday but the spread on the Calls was enough to make you vomit. The options are very thinly traded.

QIHU is an interesting Chinese stock that may be explosive coming out of the current consolidation. They're heavy into a browser for cell phones where BIDU is lagging. Problems with transparency though and BIDU is suing them if they already haven't. QIHU might get very interesting if it keeps consolidating waiting for it's 20 MA to catch up. Don't know if it will wait though.

 

[Nondual]

Sprint popped up on my radar today. Nice little setup with strong buying/mild selling, nice support off it's 10 MA and uber liquid options with virtually no spread. Missed this one, far as how I like to play options, and we'll see if it pauses or pulls back a bit yet may nibble today. If I get in today buying half a position and average down if the opportunity presents itself.

 

[Nondual]

If you have any of those good trades ^^ in advance so I can trade them, throw them out there Madrus.

I would be willing to bet on one.

Think I will stay long for next week, more of the same I hope. Bad jobs # equals fed stimulus or so the traders think. I also think it means Romney has a shot and they would prefer him.

Yeah with options 'bet' is a pretty good word. Definitely more of a gamble. Most options expire worthless. Prepare to get spanked. You're timing needs to be pretty near perfect otherwise prepare for a gut wrenching roller coaster ride as you watch your position fluctuate like crazy as the stock barely moves lol.

As for the last part...leading stocks breaking out like crazy so expect more of the same for the coming weeks. I'm thinking about starting to play USO (crude) out long as insurance for any Middle East disturbance. If that happens at this point will come out of the blue and don't see any action against Iran at this point. I don't like playing commodities and why I went with RIC instead of GLD. At least the price of crude has firmed and in a technical uptrend.

Others I'm looking at are TIBX, after it sets up, and SSYS, which seems almost done with it's pullback.

 

[yesum]

When I used to do options I always was out of them after just a few days. I do not understand letting an option expire?

I am holding some GLD and thinking it hits 2000 this year or next year for sure. These monetary stimulus things are inflating and the dollar has only gained or held up so well because the rest of the world's currencies are even worse. Or that is my opinion.

5 or 10 years from now I see gold hitting 3000 or more. Dollar worth less of course. Any opinions on that, would like to hear them.

 

[Nondual]

When I used to do options I always was out of them after just a few days. I do not understand letting an option expire?

I am holding some GLD and thinking it hits 2000 this year or next year for sure. These monetary stimulus things are inflating and the dollar has only gained or held up so well because the rest of the world's currencies are even worse. Or that is my opinion.

5 or 10 years from now I see gold hitting 3000 or more. Dollar worth less of course. Any opinions on that, would like to hear them.

Options aren't expiring by choice but more people buy into a position which moves the other way so they end up holding something that becomes worthless. So in that case people hold onto the position, let it expire take the loss and write it off against gains...if they have some.

Yeah normally I have a target in mind and hold until I feel it's done what I was expecting it two. Usually less than 5 days. The ones I have now are pretty far out as there was really no premium. The difference between something like the same strike expiring in November was virtually the same as the one expiring in February. It's nice to have the cushion of extra time.

As for gold and silver at some point it will be worth quite a bit more than now. I have some silver that's collecting dust as I've forgotten about it. Silver has made quite a move in the last few weeks.

 

[bs0]

That stimulus has been coming for awhile. For me means gold and silver will move. I was expecting this and also PM stocks were pretty washed out. I've been playing RIC which I got stopped out of a few months back. Around 1 is where The Street downgraded from a Buy to Hold and probably a little lower in the chart. I'm so shocked they were late ha ha. The first arrow is where I nibbled. Around 2 is where The Street downgraded from a Hold to Sell so knew it was ready to make a move lol. It might have been just after I nibbled when they downgraded. I'm guessing they were also trying to get some weak holders to dump so they could pick up more cheaper or at least some of their clients could pick up some cheaper. When I saw their Sell revision I was ready to pounce. The second arrow is where I bought in heavier with long term 2.50 calls when it hit it's 20 MA. There was virtually NO premium on these calls going out to February. I stay away from out of the money calls/puts now and play things more conservatively and hoping RIC pauses and pulls back to about 4.50 and finds support at it's 10 or 20 MA. If not it'll go to 5.00 and might take profits there. I figured this thing is good to at least make a move to 5.00 over the short term. I'm also in TRX calls right now and feel that one has a 1 point move in it based on the technical formation. I like that up volume is accelerating out of that ascending triangle. Both RIC and TRX are solid mining stocks IMO.

I was looking at getting into some calls on BNNY Thursday before it popped on Friday but the spread on the Calls was enough to make you vomit. The options are very thinly traded.

QIHU is an interesting Chinese stock that may be explosive coming out of the current consolidation. They're heavy into a browser for cell phones where BIDU is lagging. Problems with transparency though and BIDU is suing them if they already haven't. QIHU might get very interesting if it keeps consolidating waiting for it's 20 MA to catch up. Don't know if it will wait though.

View Image

been trading qihu to much success of late. solid.

 

[bs0]

Options aren't expiring by choice but more people buy into a position which moves the other way so they end up holding something that becomes worthless. So in that case people hold onto the position, let it expire take the loss and write it off against gains...if they have some.

Yeah normally I have a target in mind and hold until I feel it's done what I was expecting it two. Usually less than 5 days. The ones I have now are pretty far out as there was really no premium. The difference between something like the same strike expiring in November was virtually the same as the one expiring in February. It's nice to have the cushion of extra time.

As for gold and silver at some point it will be worth quite a bit more than now. I have some silver that's collecting dust as I've forgotten about it. Silver has made quite a move in the last few weeks.

The only options trading i've had success with was riding fb downwards. It's another way to 'short' a stock, especially with things like that big stock release coming up. dropped like 3 bucks in a few days right before the option expiration date. 20$ options ended up being awesome, while trading for very cheap earlier in the week.

 

[The iD]

-iD

 

[SpasticGramps]

What's up dude? Good to see you are still around.

Today was the big day. Open ended QE to infinity. FINALLY. We were a few months off eh? I didn't expect the LTRO1 and 2 and now OMT out of Europe. If they hadn't come down the pipe the FED would have had to monetize a long time ago.

The FED is now officially out of ammo. When this fails as all other monetizations in the history of the world have failed the party will be over. Maybe Bernanke will begin tightening rates after we hyperinflate?

stay frosty

 

[Madrus Rose]

I am holding some GLD and thinking it hits 2000 this year or next year for sure. These monetary stimulus things are inflating and the dollar has only gained or held up so well because the rest of the world's currencies are even worse. Or that is my opinion.

5 or 10 years from now I see gold hitting 3000 or more. Dollar worth less of course. Any opinions on that, would like to hear them.

Holding Gold was really the logical smart play thru aug into today as well as the GLD the stock "GOLD" whch moves even better than the GLD popped off 109 -114 . GS and all the banks , AMZN today & yest held the 254 pivot like AAPL held the 656 yest , man did they put the squeeze on Amazon later . CRM was also showing signs pros were setting up for a run , shorts were good but only till 12 noon today .

Also the fertilizer stocks AGU & especially CF , and all the coals & steels bouncing since China announcing the latest 150Bil infrastructure programs , X was nice get off 18 5days ago , reset low & WLT ANR in the coals.

 

[Madrus Rose]

What's up dude? Good to see you are still around.

Today was the big day. Open ended QE to infinity.

The FED is now officially out of ammo. When this fails as all other monetizations in the history of the world have failed the party will be over. Maybe Bernanke will begin tightening rates after we hyperinflate?

stay frosty

There's no return on savings even talk of banks soon charging you to keep money with them , seriously . This is getting interesting .

 

[SpasticGramps]

There's no return on savings even talk of banks soon charging you to keep money with them , seriously . This is getting interesting .

We are beyond ZIRP (0 interest rate policy) now we've crossed the Rubicon into NIRP (negative interest rate policy).

It's legalized theft and the beginning of the end IMO.

 

[Tripsick]

Sweet does that mean ill finally get paid by the banks to buy a house?

So how much longer is this game going to last?

 

[bs0]

We are beyond ZIRP (0 interest rate policy) now we've crossed the Rubicon into NIRP (negative interest rate policy).

It's legalized theft and the beginning of the end IMO.

It's crazy, the fed can't drop their rate any more... so they're trivializing the one legit thing they had to pump more money out...

I don't think there is any question there will eventually be a pullback with this type of behavior... The house of cards has gotten pretty damned big.