Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[CascadeFarmer]

I don't get that either. Of course you are trading. Exchanging one item for another is considered "trading".

I'd consider myself a swing trader looking for a predefined set movement within an approximate period. I day traded a long time ago and was not my thing. I try and spend time and energy researching things, make the best entry I can and if it goes against me get out fast otherwise give it time to work and hope it hits my target or close as planned. Locking in profits is one of the bigger challenges IMO. Controlling losses is easy.

 

[SpasticGramps]

The old money masters will likely be the new money masters unless we do something different this time around. Our track record sucks.

"Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws." Mayer Amschel Rothschild (1744-1812), founder of the House of Rothschild.

"The few who understand the system will either be so interested in its profits or be so dependent upon its favours that there will be no opposition from that class, while on the other hand, the great body of people, mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantage that capital derives from the system, will bear its burdens without complaint, and perhaps without even suspecting that the system is inimical to their interests." The Rothschild brothers of London writing to associates in New York, 1863.

 

[iSMOKE.KUSH]

The old money masters will likely be the new money masters unless we do something different this time around. Our track record sucks.

so true..

 

[robbiedublu]

I don't get that either. Of course you are trading. Exchanging one item for another is considered "trading".

Check the thread title."Short term trades"
In my opinion, "Trading", in reference to financial instruments, has come to mean buying and selling things based on potential relatively small moves over a very short span of time. In my mind it usually involves options which have the potential to make someone a lot of money with a small move but also the potential to lose all of your investment with a small move the wrong way.
I don't do it, which is why I usually stay out of this thread.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Ruroh.

S&P Triggers 200-day MA Death Cross - What Does this Mean?

It's official, on August 11, the S&P's 50-day simple moving average (SMA) sliced below the 200-day SMA. This condition is dramatically called the death cross.

The death cross has foreshadowed some remarkable market meltdowns (-46% in 2000 and -55% in 2007) and shouldn't be ignored. However, it also has one serious flaw.

Just a few months ago the S&P was trading at 1,370. Those were golden times, but they've passed. Reality paid a visit and the S&P dropped as much as 267 points, or 19.48%.

The S&P has recovered somewhat but is still 15% below the May high. If you're holding on to long positions until you get the crossover sell signal (or death cross), the last few months have been a grueling experience.

Why? Simply because your sell signal has been late to the party, 15% too late.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Noteable stats for the day. France 0% GDP print, Greece -6.9% GDP, USAA+ UMich Consumer Confidence at 54.9 (lowest since 1980). Bullish of course to make for a nice rally today with the European short selling ban. The wonders of central planning.

I was wondering what the Friday night bomb was going to be and it's a pretty big one. Emergency Austerity for the Italians. Time to turn on The Piazza Navona cam.

Italy delivers tough austerity measures Reuters

Fri Aug 12, 2011 6:10pm EDT
* Cabinet adopts 45.5 bln euros in budget measures by 2013

* Special levy on high earners, financial tax rise

* Accelerated deficit cuts imposed by ECB

* Berlusconi says tax increases make his heart bleed

 

[SpasticGramps]

Neil Cavuto (I know I know) is having all kind of MARKET CHAOS and ON THE BRINK: ANSWERS FROM THE ABYSS specials tonight and tomorrow. Bernie Marcus (co-founder of Home Depot) is screaming on the phone about how Europe's banks are about to meltdown. Several Fox Business talking heads were talking about how Europe is having a liquidity crisis (which they are). Funding is starting to dry up again. TARP 2.0 is on deck. Systemic risk is back with a vengeance. Some douchey ex Goldman Sachs executive just commented that "the horse has left the barn."

Big weeks ahead.

Chart for your viewing pleasure. America's WTF Economy.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Might get kind of nasty out there.

Morgan Stanley Gets Downright Apocalyptic

Listening to David Greenlaw and/or Jim Caron as they strike out again, and again, and again, with delusions of economic grandure over US GDP and some historic 2s10s bull steepener which is never, ever coming, one would be left with the impression that Morgan Stanley has inherited the title of most permabullish sell side advisory from Deutsche Bank's economics department. Nothing could be further from the truth. Like any other bank, MS has perfectly hedged its rosy outlook by spoonfeeding its retail clients with the rosy view, while whispering the apocalypse case to its institutional clients (judging by last week's pummeling in MS stock, there is not that many of them left). Below we present the view of MS' equity strategy team under Adam Parker, who gives not only a distribution range for his year end S&P target (1004-1425), but a matrix specifying the probability outcome of either case. Bottom line, "while there is 18% upside to the year-end bull case and 16% downside to the year-end bear case, we assign a higher probability to our bear case than bull case, preventing us from becoming increasingly optimistic." When even Morgan Stanley tells you (or rather the whale clients who are now more than happy to sell into every low volume, retail driven rally) there is little to smile about, it is high time to look for the exits.

Perhaps someone can ask CNBC Friday's afternoon permaguest David "Soulglow" Durst how he justifies his endless optimistic outlook on stocks when his own colleagues warn the bottom is about to fall out.

 

[Madrus Rose]

Same thing just the inverse, where you get "double tops" you also get double bottoms ...but 1130 is the ultimate target area for the H&S pattern from the top keep that in mind to with 1150 a good lower middle target now too. So 1160, 1150 then 1130 on the downside ...then you look for already bottoming stocks pushed down that have the highest potential for a bounce or the high beta's like AAPL GOOG BIDU .

Funny thing hot money could seek safety in this period in of all places , US debt in bonds ...were still far more safe than Euro .;-0

Anyone notice that runnup on the TLT 20yr TREASURY notes?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p32106992060

Last week a "Big Mac" with fries & drink hit $15usd in Switzerland...$18.76 if you ordered the New York Crispy meal that a minimum wage employee in Minneapolis, Minnesota, would have to work for nearly 4-hours in order to afford it.
http://www.mcdonalds.ch/de/menuekarte/menus/new-york-crispy-menu

The Swiss Franc FXF finally became a short too after really hitting the sky at $140
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FXF&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p57362141626

" SPX 1130 "

* Banks were the biggest shorts as BCS the 1rst to fall last week as it had that $9bil in Spanish debt & doggie BAC ...with all that pounding there was a good long trade in them when the market finally rallied off 1130
(with quik dips to 1100)

BCS was good for 35% down but also you could catch 14% on the reflex bounce too , why short term dont get too set in your ways . Why i was saying watch that --->1130 pivot on the SPX..(or 1120 )
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BCS&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p19470455521

 

[Madrus Rose]

here gramps , the "Mother of all Head & Shoulders" formations

makes a nice desktop background

 

[SpasticGramps]

"Buy when there is blood in the streets." said billionaire Mark Cuban on Fox Business and when asked if this was "blood in the streets" yet, with his hand hand covering his mouth he laughed while shaking his head and said "no". The technicals (death cross) confirm it. The look in some of these people's eye's was quite interesting.

So now that "the horse has left the barn" that we are going "back" biglaugh into recession/depression where are we historically considering that this is the beginning of the second leg down?

Recessionspotting: "You Are Here"

Now that even the likes of Joe LaSagna are starting to throw out the R-word about as casually as they did a 4% 2011 GDP target as recently as 2 months ago, it is becoming increasingly clear that the market is pricing in the fact that post a few more historical BEA revisions, the prior two real GDP reads will end up having been, shockingly enough, negative, i.e., your garden variety recession. So where does that put us on a market performance continuum, for those wishing to extrapolate how much further stocks and, yes, bonds (because credit is and always has been a far better indicator of objective market reality) have to drop before we hit the proverbial floor. Well, according to Morgan Stanley, quite a bit lower: "Despite the recent decline in risk assets, we do not believe that recession is in the price. Exhibits 3 and 4 show the typical declines in developed market risk assets in recession. Compared to corrections in past recessions, S&P prices and corporate credit spreads would have more to go, though spreads are starting from a higher level than typically precedes recessions." What is startling is that should central planners lose all control (and with central bank intervention upon intervention, one can argue that should all artificial props be removed, the market really ought to plunge in a Great Depression-style tailspin), the drop from the April 29 peak to the bottom will be roughly 4 times greater... which means the S&P would hit the proverbial "S&P 400" which is the long-term target of the likes of some more popular skeptics such as Albert Edwards and Russell Napier. As for credit: watch out below.

Translation: we are on the verge of the biggest deflationary market collapse since the 1930s, which will, inevitably, be followed by the most powerful (read fiat dilutive) central bank response in history.

All those gloating that hyperinflation has not set in yet... give it a year.

My plan: Take delivery of fiat paper now and buy into the deflationary collapse coming IMO. Convert fiat to hard assets when there is "blood in the streets." Accelerating this strategy when QEIII is announced and then watch "King Dollar" burn.

Whatever the case. I'm bullish physical everything.

 

[CascadeFarmer]

In my opinion, "Trading", in reference to financial instruments, has come to mean buying and selling things based on potential relatively small moves over a very short span of time. In my mind it usually involves options which have the potential to make someone a lot of money with a small move but also the potential to lose all of your investment with a small move the wrong way.

Well then at what time span is it no longer 'trading'?

As for the second part...huh?

Bachmann, a representative from Minnesota, narrowly edged out Ron Paul and rolled over Tim Pawlenty and the rest of the field to capture the nonbinding mock election, an early gauge of strength in the state that holds the first 2012 Republican nominating contest.

I had the feeling she was going to show well. Looks like she's the one to fix all of our problems...lol.

Madrus...quite an interesting chart and yeah it does look like the mother of all head and shoulder formations. IBD released their home study bear market shorting program at the right time! I see nothing but downhill from here.

 

[CascadeFarmer]

Whatever the case. I'm bullish physical everything.

So you have a lot of paper money in your safe?



Pretty soon will be about the same as toilet paper.

 

[SpasticGramps]

I know I know but I figure there is going to be some sort of bank holiday vis a vis Great Depression #1 during the deflationary collapse of Greatest Depression 2.0. Positioning myself better capitalized than most. If/when we launch Money Printing Madness 3.0 (QEIII) I should be able to acquire tangible assets at significantly reduced costs of fiat as it becomes worthless. Sell/trade my remaining fiat into the final devaluation basically.

I pulled everything out and counted it today. I found a few old silver dollar coins from 1879-1900. One is worth ~$40 for the metal alone now. Amazing. It's all about the money managers.

 

[Dislexus]

Not trying to argue but you wrote deflationary and threw me off, as I understood that a bunch of printing of fiat causes inflation..

I was thinking it would be beneficial to invest in hard assets now before your liquidity becomes vaporized by inflation. That's why gold's been going up for so long..

But hey I'm not an expert, I just got a bunch of credit cards and immediately maxed them out on canned food and ammunition... I'm gunna hit the jackpot, baby. Livin at the intersection of Easy Street and Apocalypse Avenue.

 

[turbolaser4528]

pshh, recession? where?? I'm making more money than I ever did, muhaha!

fuck the stock market, must buy weapons, and get off grid in time.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Not trying to argue but I understood that a bunch of money printing of fiat causes inflation..

Bernanke is going to need a very strong case for QEIII because everyone knows that the party is over at that point. So we should have a big deflationary correction (ie. lots of pain) before we go on the Money Printing Madness 3.0. We are 15% down on the S&P already. 200MA just crossed the 50MA (Death Cross). We need a lot of pain before QE triple bam nuclear bomb can be let off.

I don't know. I don't have my cash in a bank, I know that much. I'm staying totally liquid for the time being to remain nimble and preserve capital.

 

[Dislexus]

Oh its gunna ZIG *before* it ZAGs.. Well shit deflation's awesome in that my money will buy more.

Wait I'm too stoned for this right now

 

[robbiedublu]

So you have a lot of paper money in your safe?



Pretty soon will be about the same as toilet paper.

Wow, thanks for that brilliant insight. You're an economic genius. Please enlighten us all about what we should buy with our stacks of useless paper money. Better listen up SG.

 

[Hydrosun]

Check the thread title."Short term trades"
In my opinion, "Trading", in reference to financial instruments, has come to mean buying and selling things based on potential relatively small moves over a very short span of time. In my mind it usually involves options which have the potential to make someone a lot of money with a small move but also the potential to lose all of your investment with a small move the wrong way.
I don't do it, which is why I usually stay out of this thread.

Wow, thanks for that brilliant insight. You're an economic genius. Please enlighten us all about what we should buy with our stacks of useless paper money. Better listen up SG.

Not so nice to be calling people out when you live in a glass house. In my mind it usually leads to broken windows.