Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[bentom187]

speaking of wich,i dont like to gamble,but have been looking at gold,A: to have a pirate hord,B: for turning a small profit on a rainy day.
does anyone mess with physical gold ? any advice or should i just stay away?

 

[BudZad7]

Good Stocks to buy....

Good Stocks to buy....

Hello All !!! This is good info......Also, Apple stock is Good!
And another couple of company's....tech stocks Cloud computing

EMC.......and VMW.....check these out......

 

[SpasticGramps]

speaking of wich,i dont like to gamble,but have been looking at gold,A: to have a pirate hord,B: for turning a small profit on a rainy day.
does anyone mess with physical gold ? any advice or should i just stay away?

I'm very bullish on physical gold. Every time The Bernank opens his mouth it rockets up. Some people will say it's expensive right now, but all of them still believe fiat IOUs from the FED (Dollars) is going to remain a stable form of trade.

I'm hedged with gold too, but I think silver has the highest way to go still. #1 because it is still way off it's historic ratio with gold and #2 I think it's more manipulated than gold and there has to be a reason so.

 

[SpasticGramps]

I like both.

Government Sach's releases their little after hours Friday bomb. Surprise, surprise.

Goldman Slashes Economic Forecast, Cuts Q3 GDP To 2.5%, Sees Q2 Below Stall Speed

Nobody could have foreseen this now typical Friday night bomb from the 200 West macroeconomic wrecking crew. Nobody. Well... "Here is the first official Q3 GDP downgrade, courtesy of JPM's Michael Feroli. We fully expect every other clueless Wall Street lemming to follow suit in minutes." But as long as the lemmings all move in a herd over the cliff, they will still somehow all get paid the same $5 million (of which 25% is cash and the rest is indentured cliff-vesting equity servitude) at the end of the year. Either way, can we all now agree that Goldman did indeed jump the shark in December, especially now that it sees Q1 GDP at below stall speed in real terms. So here it is: "Following another week of weak economic data, we have cut our estimates for real GDP growth in the second and third quarter of 2011 to 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively, from 2% and 3.25%. Our forecasts for Q4 and 2012 are under review, but even excluding any further changes we now expect the unemployment rate to come down only modestly to 8¾% at the end of 2012." Here is why Hatzius gets paid the big Bernankebux: "The “bugbear” is that we are still unsure about the precise reasons for the slowdown in 2011 to date, which is sharply at odds with our expectation at the end of last year that growth would accelerate in 2011." And the punchline: "Our forecast remains no fresh monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, but the probability has risen. In particular, Fed officials would undoubtedly ease if the economy returned to recession—not our forecast, but clearly a possibility given the recent numbers." Our prediction is that when Bill Dudley's 2011 calendar is released in December, his first meeting with Jan Hatzius at the Pound and Pence will have taken place right.... about.... now.

From GS:
Following another week of weak economic data, we have cut our estimates for real GDP growth in the second and third quarter of 2011 to 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively, from 2% and 3.25%. Our forecasts for Q4 and 2012 are under review, but even excluding any further changes we now expect the unemployment rate to come down only modestly to 8¾% at the end of 2012.

They put the best lipstick they could on the pig. Anyone have some more gas for the ponzi bus?

 

[iSMOKE.KUSH]

gramps, you sure put on a good read. keep em coming.

 

[joeuser]

speaking of wich,i dont like to gamble,but have been looking at gold,A: to have a pirate hord,B: for turning a small profit on a rainy day.
does anyone mess with physical gold ? any advice or should i just stay away?

I just bought 5 oz gold and 40 oz silver...there's nothing wrong with having some REAL money. It cost me about $10,000. I consider it an investment and insurance. I've found that www.[B]gainesvillecoins[/B].com has the best deals for the small time buyer.

I'd suggest starting with silver...$40 an ounce compared to $1600...at least it looks like you're getting something when you buy silver...40 coins per $1600 compared to 1 with gold. Historically, silver is priced 20:1 to gold...right now it's 40:1 so, it's got room to double in price...plus the normal price appreciation.

Those "buy gold" commercials on TV are true! All those wonderful things they say about gold ARE true! Just don't buy it from them...they'll rip you off with commissions...think of them as the "car salesmen" of gold dealers.

 

[SpasticGramps]

This must bullish, yes? Rally monkey! Whenever MW runs with a negative story on the weekend the market rallies more times than not on Monday from what I've seen. Maybe reality will kick it between the legs?

Market in for bumpy ride on earnings, debt woes

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Investors will have a lot to digest next week with a number of corporate heavyweights lined up to report quarterly earnings. The ongoing U.S. debt ceiling discussions in the nation’s capital, Europe’s financial woes and a plethora of housing data also may mean the stock market is in for a bumpy ride, according to fund managers and strategists.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Charting America's Brief Trip In And Out Of Austerity... And Onward To Complete Disaster

One of the "positive" side-effects of the Treasury's plundering of retirement accounts is that total US debt in June actually declined for the first time since January 2010, dropping by $1.6 billion from the May 31 closing print of $14.344 trillion. No doubt this was predicated by the US Treasury officially breaching the debt ceiling on May 16. Yet due to this, or for some other reason (and it is not a surge in net income tax receipts as these appear to have reached an inflection point earlier in the year and are now trendlining lower on a Y/Y basis), something else happened: the slope on the cumulative deficit line since the start of the depression in December 2007 (see below), is now the shallowest it has ever been. In other words, the US over the past few months, faced with the threat and now reality of a debt ceiling breach was actively cutting spending, while benefitting from a transitory spike in income tax revenues, although unfortunately now that the unemployment rate is back on the trendline to double digits, this will be the only true transitory thing about the US economy. Whether this actual, factual fiscal prudence was conscious is unclear, however the result is clear: faced with the threat of being unable to finance every single dollar in perpetuity, the US government's involuntary self-imposed austerity actually... Worked! And yes, the direct side effect is that Q2 GDP is now likely to come at 1.6%: the worst quarterly increase since... Q2 of 2010 (recall that 2010 Q2 GDP was revised from 2.4% to 1.6$ on August 27 last year... hours before Bernanke announced QE2 ). And there once again is the glaring correlation between the slowing of the economy and the decline in debt issuance, and the actual deficit "improvement." Now take this slower deficit growth, and assume it actually is reversed, i.e., America has a budget surplus. While great for the country in the Long-Run, it would mean that GDP, which is now purely reliant on how much debt Geithner can issue, it would mean a collapse in the GDP, in the S&P, and in Wall Street executives' bank accounts. At least in the absence of QE3, 4 and so forth...

Another way of looking at this "austerity" data is the divergence between cumulative debt and cumulative deficit since December 2007. Since the Depression ver 2, the US generated $3.982 trillion in deficits, while adding $5.194 trillion in new debt (from $9.15 trillion to $14.343 trillion). However, what is notable is that June saw the lowest difference between cumulative deficit and debt, with "just" 30.4% more debt being issued than deficit had to be funded.

Unfortunately this "austerity" will be short-lived for two reasons. First, once the debt ceiling is raised, the nearly $260 billion in plundered retirement trust funds will have to be promptly reinvested. This means that over the next 3-4 months the Treasury will issue a whopper of short-term debt, as it scrambles to catch up to the historical Bill average as a percentage of total debt (which as we observed recently, has plunged). Second, it means that with deficit expenditures no longer having a medium-term bottleneck, deficit spending will literally explode in the next several months, which, due to the catch 22 nature of deficits and their debt-based funding, means that Treasury issuance will jump even more than just the Bill trendline "catch up" implies.

Bottom line, enjoy this slowdown in the speed of the US Titanic while you can. After August 2, we are fully convined the Treasury's bond issuance dial will be turned to the rather unfortunate "ludicrous speed."

The sad truth is that while an American's technical default will certainly not be as bad as all claim (yes, financial markets are rather adaptive ecosystems, and following a day or two of massive pain mostly for the Status QuoTM, things will stabilize) this last chance to fix the evils that came about with promoting moral hazard to the de facto only investment thesis 101, will be promptly gone. Alas, every single time something, anything, threatens the status quo's existence, the biggest threats start flying. What we can be sure is that while it took just under three years between Mutual Assured Destruction episode 1 when Paulson waved a three page blank check termsheet to Congress demanding supreme fascist rights, and the current MAD episode 2, MAD part 3, in keeping with the ever decreasing half life of government intervention and "bail outs", will come far, far sooner. Then MAD part 4 will arrive just after and so forth. At that point, threats about the end of the world will actually be true. However, they will be true no matter what choice is ultimately taken.

And speaking of end of the world scearions, here is Citi's somewhat sober and very detailed look at what will happen should the US default now (all with pretty charts). What is left unsaid is that this same analysis will be infinitely uglier the next time it has to be done, with the opportunity cost of doing the right thing being far greater than even now, as the global financial system shifts even further from equilibrium under the disastrous guidance of global central planning.

From Citi:

Gradually now the questions are coming in. “What will happen if the U.S. government defaults on its debt after August 2?” It’s still nearly unthinkable. The exact date may not be as precise as advertised. Predictably, more of these questions come from distant shores. But the longer Congress lingers, the more frequently the question will be asked.

Some part of this question is in the realm of “what will you do after you commit suicide?” While conflicting in substance, rumblings from Washington in the past week suggested action could be imminent. Of course something seems likely to get done. But to take the question seriously, if the U.S. could spend only its revenues, spending would need to be slashed by about 40%, or over $100 billion per month. That’s about 8% of current GDP non-annualized. If all checks from the Treasury were cut in size but not eliminated, legal obligations such as Social Security Payments would have to be cut by roughly $25 billion per month, or $300 billion at an annualized rate1. This is money that is spent in the U.S. economy, as are the payments for military personnel salaries, federal contractor payments and pension contributions that sum to larger amounts.

We doubt that even the most extremist of policymakers believes that private economic activity will immediately fill the void left by so large a drop in these deficit-financed “income” streams. Their many constituents would let them know the personal impact whatever the perceived benefits (see figure 1). If the U.S. Treasury was determined to make U.S. interest payments on the notion that if it does not, the U.S. might be required to spend only its revenues for far longer, than other outlays would need to be cut nearly 50% rather than 40%.

A near immediate income decline of 8%-9% of GDP, and the uncertainty around policy, would weaken expectations priced in asset markets, reducing economic activity by an even larger amount before long. Such would be the likely case even if Treasury debt payments were maintained and “prioritized.”

In the event of a Treasury debt default, we would note that U.S. Treasuries are a key risk-free asset on bank balance sheets across the world and the single-largest form of loan collateral. The U.S. Treasury is the ultimate guarantor of bank deposits. The financial implications of an actual Treasury default, even briefly, could represent the largest financial shock in history, potentially creating a domino of defaults. As such, creating quantitative economic projections on a default scenario seems like a foolish errand.

Scared yet? Good. That is precisely Citi's goal.

Unfortunately in the same note, Citi also shares some other charts, all of which indicate that no matter what happens this week, or at 11:59:59pm on August 2, the long-term fate of the world's premier entitlement state is one which ends in disaster, and if history is any indication: war... Only this time everyone has the same just as destructive toys.

Bullish again, yes. Dow 100K?

 

[SpasticGramps]

Everything is going to be fine. Nothing usual about hedge fund managers talking about economic implosion. Would someone please turn the fucking music back on and give me and iPad.

The Head Of The World's Biggest Hedge Fund Sees "Economic Collapse" Due To Money Printing By Early 2013

As part of its most recent issue the New Yorker has released a must read interview with Ray Dalio - head of the world's biggest hedge fund, Bridgewater. Dalio's fund, which according to some may now be as large as $80 billion, continues to outperform even in this problematic environment, indicating that unlike various other managers who shall remain nameless, and whose wealth is built up almost exclusively on one trade (and that belonging to someone else in the first place), Dalio, despite rumors that he is preparing to leave his current position and is actively seeking a replacement, is still keenly able to adapt to changing macro conditions. Which is why his warning about future rounds of QE, which he sees as a certainty, should be heeded. Especially since it conforms 100% with the warnings of Zero Hedge - Dalio believes that future inevitable money printing will "lead to a collapse in currencies and bond markets." Dalio is even kind enough to give a time frame. "I think late 2012 or early 2013 is going to be another very difficult period." He is, to say the least, quite diplomatic.

From the full interview:

Dalio believes that some heavily indebted countries, including the United States, will eventually opt for printing money as a way to deal with their debts, which will lead to a collapse in their currency and in their bond markets. “There hasn’t been a case in history where they haven’t eventually printed money and devalued their currency,” he said. Other developed countries, particularly those tied to the euro and thus to the European Central Bank, don’t have the option of printing money and are destined to undergo “classic depressions,” Dalio said. The recent deal to avoid an immediate debt default by Greece didn’t alter his pessimistic view. “People concentrate on the particular thing of the moment, and they forget the larger underlying forces,” he said. “That’s what got us into the debt crisis. It’s just today, today.”

Dalio’s assessment sounded alarmingly plausible. But when one plays the global financial markets a thorough economic analysis is only the first stage of the game. At least as important is getting the timing right. I asked Dalio when all this would start to come together. “I think late 2012 or early 2013 is going to be another very difficult period,” he said.

Translation: enjoy your -0.002% Bills and paying uncle Sam to hold your money while you can.

“People concentrate on the particular thing of the moment, and they forget the larger underlying forces,”

Nothing to see here. Please move along quietly. Everyone please put your heads back into the sand and don't forget "Thank you for flying Ponzi Airlines." Let's see the central planners land this flaming turd. If it's anything like times past , it's going to be a motherfucker.

This is why Keynesian fails in the long run IMO and why any centrally controlled market ends in total devastation rather than regular market cyclical activity. Yes, we need rules, but we don't need monopolies and oligarchies. Ultimately, markets are about irrational human psychology, not formulas and models.

Gold to $1600 today BTW. The flight to safety trade for American fiat paper is waning.

Thank You for Flying Ponzi Airlines.

 

[Dislexus]

Anybody do forex trading? A guy showed me how to do it and some set-it-and-forget-it trading software... helps you drill down on money making swings etc.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Bullish? The casino cannibalizes itself.

As David Cameron Resignation Odds Surge From 100/1 To 8/1 In Hours, Is UK Default (And Contagion) Risk Set To Follow?

What started off as a simple, if very much illegal, information gathering protocol (and yes, NOTW is most certainly not the only organization that hacked voice mails), and has since escalated to an epic shakedown of one of the world's most legendary media companies in which Murdoch himself now appears on the verge of leaving the company, appears set to ultimately result in a historic parliamentary collapse, with the Prime Minister of the UK David Cameron seen as the ultimate fallguy. As English booking agency reports, "David Cameron's odds of leaving the Cabinet have been slashed by Ladbrokes. The bookies have taken a steady stream of bets on the PM leaving office with the odds dropping from 100/1 to 20/1 and now 8/1 in a matter of hours." In other words anyone who bet that the shuttering of the NOTW was merely the first step in the News Corp. scandal and that it would reach as high as the pinnacle of UK leadership, has made a return well over 10 times in the past several days. And yet, as the Economist chimes in with a late night piece, the departure of Cameron at this point is far from certain. Which is arguably a far worse state of affairs: if there is anything the markets hate, it is uncertainty. If Cameron was sure to stay or go, it would have no impact on the UK's economy and financial markets. As it stands, and with Murdochgate getting worse by the minute, we would not be surprised to see UK CDS follow the US and Germany to multi-year highs, as the UK now openly becomes yet another target for the bond vigilantes who relish precisely this kind of uncertain inbetweenness

Watch out for those nasty bond vigilantes.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Forex is best left to the pros IMO. If are super dedicated then maybe, but it's no joke. Way more volatile than equities. Trading monopoly money and irrational human behavior. It's easy to get your face your ripped off as they say. So I heard.

 

[Dislexus]

Yeah I randomly met a dude awhile back who was paying the bills in a middle class lifestyle doing forex with something called Black Dog Software.. He was previously a daytrader though, but he swore it was easy with software helping you, as long as you are an analytical type person who can pick up on the graphs etc..

His hustle seemed to be doing better longterm than anybody I met who got into shorting stocks etc..

 

[SpasticGramps]

Banks stocks got rocked in an otherwise +200 meltup day. Perfect timing for.....

Timmy, with another fantastic piece of American Propaganda. The irony not as amusing as "Welcome to the Recovery," but tragically humorous just the same.

Time For Tim Geithner's Annual Top-Ticking Op-Ed, In Which We Learn That It Is Time To Panic About America's Banks

When just under a year ago, Tim Geithner penned "Welcome to the Recovery" he top ticked the zenith of the business cycle to the day if not the hour, with the economy finding itself in a straight line contraction ever since then, blissfully delayed by a 9 month QE2 detour. Now that the QE2 is no longer a factor, we are already seeing economists everywhere cut their Q2 GDP forecasts to sub 2%, an effective stall speed for the economy in real terms, and reducing their full year economic forecasts. Which is why we were delighted to learn that today Geithner has just released his latest iteration of a top-ticking missive, this one titled inappropriately enough "Dodd-Frank Has Made Our Banks Stronger" which is supremely ironic because not only has Dodd-Frank not made anything stronger as it has not even been remotely implemented, but as Bank of America, Goldman and Citi's Q2 results have just confirmed, the US bank sector is now the weakest it has been in years. Thus, when accentuated with a Geithner adminition to not panic our only advice is to do precisely the opposite. Oh yes, it took precisely 25 days between Geithner's heartfelt appeal to America's idiot class last year and Bernanke's Jackson Hole appearance. We wonder if this year it will be shorter.

From The WSJ:

Dodd-Frank Has Made Our Banks Stronger

By Tim Geithner

 

[SpasticGramps]

IMF: Fix Europe crisis or risk global spillover Market Watch

FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) — The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday urged euro-zone leaders to increase the size of and make more flexible the region’s rescue mechanism as part of a wide-ranging effort to end deepening sovereign-debt problems.

An intensification of the crisis could have “major global consequences,” the multilateral lender warned.

"Spillover" ?? Oh. They mean exposing the systemic sovereign insolvency? Yeah, that problem isn't just going to disappear. Can't keep the eyes closed forever.

Welcome to the Recovery.

Euro reaches eleventh hour as Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy hold crisis talks Telegraph

Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy held crisis talks in Berlin amid warnings that a failure to break the debt crisis deadlock within 24 hours would send shockwaves around the global economy.

Ponzi is not looking so good here recently.

 

[bs0]

So I used to follow this thread, is anyone out there still playing the game? Lots of up and down movement derived from the US news. I know through rudimentary observation that if you can snag the DAY the news comes out and know the response, you can make a killing on the leveraged ETF's (proshares, etc). Dunno, been away for awhile and finally have the means to make some plays.

 

[Zen Master]

I read this thread almost every day, gramps puts out a good read

 

[Sam the Caveman]

I been so frustrated with myself since I started trading with real money, its like day and night compared with paper trading in a demo account. I'm not saying using a demo account was useless or is useless, its just not the same. Its a huge step to transfer your strategies when you have real money on the line.

I have consistently lost money nearly every day that I trade, its quite demoralizing I have to say. I'm not ashamed to admit it, but I see it as a something that can be overcome with enough perseverance and a disceplined effort. I still think its too early to make a final judgement call on whether I should be doing this at all or not. In total, I haven't lost that much money. I've been doing a lot of stupid things that are obviously stupid, if I quite doing these things I should be much better off. I've mainly been trading futures, they are much harder to trade than equities, I think.

The political climate has been effecting the price action so much recently. It seems like the more news that comes out the more uncertainty there is in the air and this is not good for traders. The first 2 weeks of this month were totally F'ed, there was no volume so the liquidity wasn't there for it to be a "healthy functioning market."

just rambling here

keep it up Gramps, the money masters who created this mess are going to be the ones who make up the next one when this one is ruined (the dollar), so I've given up hope on escaping this madness.

 

[Sundance]

Sam - I would stick to equities

Futures are - more risky and are like a fuse with an expiration date ... a much sharper game ... provide less chance for error ... and to recover from an error than owning equities

Buy low ... sell high ... stay diversified

Buy the best companies you can ... never chase the market ... know your stocks ... wait for your pitch

Stick to what you know

No one ever died from a profit

Live ... learn .. always better

No matter how good things are - trading the stock market is a very dangerous business

Careful ... and

All the best

Sundance

 

[diggdugg]

I been so frustrated with myself since I started trading with real money, its like day and night compared with paper trading in a demo account. I'm not saying using a demo account was useless or is useless, its just not the same. Its a huge step to transfer your strategies when you have real money on the line.

I have consistently lost money nearly every day that I trade, its quite demoralizing I have to say. I'm not ashamed to admit it, but I see it as a something that can be overcome with enough perseverance and a disceplined effort. I still think its too early to make a final judgement call on whether I should be doing this at all or not. In total, I haven't lost that much money. I've been doing a lot of stupid things that are obviously stupid, if I quite doing these things I should be much better off. I've mainly been trading futures, they are much harder to trade than equities, I think.

The political climate has been effecting the price action so much recently. It seems like the more news that comes out the more uncertainty there is in the air and this is not good for traders. The first 2 weeks of this month were totally F'ed, there was no volume so the liquidity wasn't there for it to be a "healthy functioning market."

just rambling here

keep it up Gramps, the money masters who created this mess are going to be the ones who make up the next one when this one is ruined (the dollar), so I've given up hope on escaping this madness.

I've been looking at starting day trading again. Back in the 90's I did well at first then couldn't stay with it as much as I needed and lost a bundle. I'm not banking anything on this yet but from what I'm seeing AG commodity futures look good. Beef,wheat etc.. are getting slammed by drought in the #1 beef and cotton producing state. HUGE numbers of cattle are being sold off right now in Texas and when rains come back producers will be buying whatever cattle they can find thus available market beef should show a low supply after the first of the year. What do ya'll think? Anyway I'm glad I found this thread, looks like Gramps is a pro!