Gas is gonna go through the roof.....

[Mountain]

Shit is really starting to hit the fan in Libya too. They produce ~2% of the worlds oil. Unlike Egypt this will really matter to the oil markets.

The price at the pumps is protected by oversupply right now. Once it's used up expect $4/gal gas by summer. Easy.

Both WTI and Brent shooting up as the Middle East goes up in smoke, but don't worry there isn't enough inflation yet. Ben will take care of it.

The market seems primed for some profit taking so add the uncertainty in Libya and will be interesting to see what happens on Tuesday and also how things develop in the next 24 hours in Libya and that not looking good and also Iran's ships will start passing through the Suez Canal on Tuesday.

Hopefully as the current Libyan regime falls they don't pull a Saddam and blow up the oil fields. Hard to see how they're going to stay in power. All Gaddafi and his son needed to do was bail and retire...those twisted power mongers. Controlling a country must be a headache...lol.

In the stock thread here mentioned it looked like oil had bottomed...shoulda bought some USO calls!

 

[Mountain]

Just out it seems...the British Foreign Secretary said Gaddafi is on a plane to Venezuela but Venezuela saying no.

 

[igrowone]

The market seems primed for some profit taking so add the uncertainty in Libya and will be interesting to see what happens on Tuesday and also how things develop in the next 24 hours in Libya and that not looking good and also Iran's ships will start passing through the Suez Canal on Tuesday.

Hopefully as the current Libyan regime falls they don't pull a Saddam and blow up the oil fields. Hard to see how they're going to stay in power. All Gaddafi and his son needed to do was bail and retire...those twisted power mongers. Controlling a country must be a headache...lol.

In the stock thread here mentioned it looked like oil had bottomed...shoulda bought some USO calls!

the shit is really hitting the fan, the middle east power structure is unraveling, no telling what we will be seeing in a few months
i think more temporarily disruptive, oil wells/infrastructure probably unharmed, new cast of leaders
but in Iran, we had Islamists in power for quite a while, they were still selling oil to anyone with cash
new leaders, same tune

 

[Mountain]

the shit is really hitting the fan, the middle east power structure is unraveling, no telling what we will be seeing in a few months

i think more temporarily disruptive, oil wells/infrastructure probably unharmed, new cast of leaders

My vote would be that what's going on in Libya will be temporarily disruptive as you said. Seems the uprising just building steam and hoping it just overwhelms the authority there like a tidal wave. Gaddafi is shooting his own soldiers now. Man that might backfire. The people taking over know they need to keep the oil flowing. Wild to watch history unfold.

It will be a very interesting year in the Middle East for sure.

 

[SpasticGramps]

In the stock thread here mentioned it looked like oil had bottomed...shoulda bought some USO calls!

No joke. I was surprised to see WTI go down to $84 after Egypt fell, but it's exploding right now back to almost $92. 6.15% just today! Futures for April are at $95! Brent Crude is at $105. Ya know what they say. Buy the fucking dip (BTFD). Crazy volatility ahead IMO.

 

[mosstrooper]

The British Government will be shi***g themselves right now over Libya, They have jumped through so many hoops to do deals with Gaddafi, if he goes BP and the British Government are gonna be in the shit. So, despite all the bad blood, bombings, and shootings of British Police women, they still dare not call for his overthrow. Realisticly, they must know its all over now, bar the shooting.

 

[Mountain]

Buy the fucking dip (BTFD).

Still so damn hard for me to change my mindset. I saw oil settle down and was like...the only thing that will happen with everything going on and with us getting close to the summer driving season is it will go up, commodities are strong and the unrest in the Mid East will only spread. Sometimes we just can't hear our own good advice...D'Oh!

For sure oil will be very volatile. With Monday an off day in the US all those traders and money managers are getting itchy trigger fingers...both ways depending on what they're holding or wanting to buy! The opening should be a screamer with stuff jumping all over the place.

A friend has a plug in Prius conversion and just bought a few pallets of solar panels so he doesn't care too much what happens in his little world.

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

No joke. I was surprised to see WTI go down to $84 after Egypt fell, but it's exploding right now back to almost $92. 6.15% just today! Futures for April are at $95! Brent Crude is at $105. Ya know what they say. Buy the fucking dip (BTFD). Crazy volatility ahead IMO.

Crazy volatility is right. When speculators run out of oil in volumes large enough to get richer quicker, it means more non-delivery based commodities trades in food (eventually water.)

BTFD used to mean we got a cheaper price at the pump. Now it means WS traders make sure the dip is merely pretext for more artificial inflation caused by non-delivery trades.

 

[SimplySour]

No joke. I was surprised to see WTI go down to $84 after Egypt fell, but it's exploding right now back to almost $92. 6.15% just today! Futures for April are at $95! Brent Crude is at $105. Ya know what they say. Buy the fucking dip (BTFD). Crazy volatility ahead IMO.

Brent Crude is (BNO) and it's at 68.47.

 

[igrowone]

Brent Crude is (BNO) and it's at 68.47.

Brent has been trading at a premium for quite a while, significantly above the NYMEX crude spot price
haven't checked today, but got to be popping

EDIT: meant NYMEX light sweet crude, got garbled a bit
my understanding is that the heavy Brent is in high demand because of the strong diesel demand in Europe

 

[SpasticGramps]

Brent Sea Crude is trading at $103.81/barrel. Wall Street Journal

You're talking about USO and BNO "FUNDS." They're securities for traders to trade without actually trading the commodity itself. $68.47 will buy you a piece of security paper, but if you want a barrel of Brent Sea Crude it will cost $104.

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

What's the ratio of dictators to OPEC membership these days? As more middle eastern countries reform their respective governments, will OPEC be stronger or weaker?

 

[SpasticGramps]

Crazy volatility is right. When speculators run out of oil in volumes large enough to get richer quicker, it means more non-delivery based commodities trades in food (eventually water.)

BTFD used to mean we got a cheaper price at the pump. Now it means WS traders make sure the dip is merely pretext for more artificial inflation caused by non-delivery trades.

Yep the Wall Street mafia has their racket in full swing. It won't stop until the Mafia Boss (The FED) is stopped though. Uncle Benny's mandate is to enrich the Wall Street elite while destroying the rest of the world. Looks like he is well on his way.

 

[SpasticGramps]

What's the ratio of dictators to OPEC membership these days? As more middle eastern countries reform their respective governments, will OPEC be stronger or weaker?

Algeria- Dictatorship, revolting

Angola- Horrible dictatorship

Ecuador- Representative Democracy

Iran- Theocracy dictatorship, trying to revolt.

Iraq- Interm US puppet government. Moving to democracy?

Kuwait-Monarchy

Libya- Autocracy, revolting

Nigeria- Horrible dictatorship

Qatar- Theocracy with Monarch

Saudi Arabia- Monarchy

United Arab Emirates- Theocracy with Monarch

Venezuela- Dictatorship

Ecuador is really the only democratic country. I think OPEC weakens as some of these other countries become destabilized. Good question.

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

Maybe OPEC is more involved with member organization where as respective governments are subject to the will of their people. I just wonder what happens if or when the will of OPEC nations' people clash with the will of OPEC.

thanks for the info, Gramps.

 

[igrowone]

man, it is getting crazy, looks like Khadafi is on the edge, maybe tomorrow
this guy could be dead by tomorrow, not much of a loss
another domino falling just keeps it going, Yemen/Iran next?

 

[Chronic Don]

$4/gallon a US gal? well its already here.
as of this morning these were the priices in our major oil refining area, and huston texas.
Gas prices in Edmonton as of this morning

Highest Regular Gas Prices in the Last 60 hours
Price Station Area Thanks

109.0/litre or $4.12/us gal
Superstore
110 Campsite Rd near McLeod Ave Spruce Grove


104.9/litre or $3.96.5/us agl
Husky
9536 51st Ave near 97th St Edmonton - South

102.9/litre or $3.88.9/us gal
Esso
51073 Hwy 21 near Range Rd 512 Sherwood Park


and in houston texas
2.89/gal or 76.45/litre
Phillips 66
4411 W Sam Houston Pkwy N & Clay Rd Houston - West
MurrayUSA
2 hours ago

2.89/gal or 76.45/litre
Kroger
FM 529 WEST OF BARKER CYPRESS RD
(.03 CENTS/GAL DISCOUNT W/ KROGER CARD) Houston - West

2.89/gal or 76.45/litre
Chevron
13259 Westheimer Rd & Eldridge Pkwy Houston - West


this is from gasbuddy.com
what are prices in other areas?
here in Canada it goes from this to 1.24.9/litre or $4.72.9/us gal

 

[SpasticGramps]

Oil groups prepare to close down in Libya Financial Times

Oil production in Libya is set to drop dramatically as major international companies and sub-contractors evacuate their staff from the north African country, potentially sending oil prices much higher.

Crude oil prices shot up on Monday to a fresh 2½-year high above $105 a barrel as traders braced for the impact of political unrest in Libya, the first major oil exporting country to be hit by turmoil in the Middle East. Brent rallied further in after-hours trading, up to $108.70 a barrel

Prices to go higher I suppose.

I just wonder what happens if or when the will of OPEC nations' people clash with the will of OPEC.

All about the price of food IMO. I think the people's will is starting to clash right now. Interesting times in history are these.

 

[Mountain]

Yemen/Iran next?

Iran is going to be a tough nut to crack.

I did a bit more research into Libyan oil and seems most goes to Europe. There does appear to be extra production capability from Saudi Arabia, especially considering the more recent economic downturn when global demand pulled back. Some of the move you are seeing in oil prices appears to be short covering exaggerating things. Speculators are part of the 'problem'.

One oil company in Libya has shut off about 100,000 barrels a day when they pulled employees out.

You're talking about USO and BNO "FUNDS." They're securities for traders to trade without actually trading the commodity itself.

Yeah but aren't those ETF's backed by positions in the commodity itself?

When you've said WTI and I've looked an offshore drilling company listed here in the US, which I was watching for awhile, and which did make a nice sustained move recently.

 

[Mountain]

I just wonder what happens if or when the will of OPEC nations' people clash with the will of OPEC.

Well if OPEC falls apart then a free for all maybe? Hell if I was an OPEC member, OPEC control failed and prices skyrocketed I'd pump as much as I could. Right now OPEC dictates how much each member can pump even though some are cheating...duh! Any nation whose economy is based on oil will not slow or shut down cause their respective country would fall into chaos due to no income.