~~ The Road to SuperBowl 44 ~~
- Thread starter Stoner4Life
- Start date
Alright!! We got a Viking fan in the house! Good to see you bud. It's gonna be long day for you Sunday. Favre just don't know.
FOX Sports has this column running.......
by Eric Schmoldt at WhatIfSports.com
AFC Conference Championship: NY Jets 22 @ Colts 21
Rex Ryan doesn’t expect a second consecutive Christmas present.
He might not need one.
The Indianapolis Colts rolled over in the second half during a Week 16 matchup with the New York Jets, taking out their starters and drawing the ire of a nation by giving up on a 19-0 record. Thomas Jones ran for more than 100 yards and the Jets ran for more than 200, scoring 26 second-half points against the Colts’ b squad to win 29-15.
Less than a month later, the Jets will have to go four quarters against Indianapolis’ best, but there are numbers that indicate they just might pull off their third upset in a row.
By now it’s no secret that New York has the league’s top defense as they’ve shown it off in the first two weeks of the playoffs. On the season, they gave up just 4.2 yards per play, more than half a yard better than the next best defense. They also had the league’s fourth-best rushing defense, allowing less than four yards per play. That number will be key in making the Colts a one-dimensional team, which teams have been able to do this season as Indy has just the 30th-ranked rushing offense in the NFL.
The Colts will have to make up for it with their passing game, which, behind star quarterback Peyton Manning, did rank in the top 10 this year. That said, the Jets bring the No. 1 passing defense in with them as well.
If anyone is going to stop Indianapolis’ vaunted offense, it’s likely the Jets. But whether they can they keep their ground game rolling to score enough points to beat the Colts is another question.
The Jets ranked fifth in the regular season at 4.5 yards per carry. That number has shrunk slightly to 4.3 in the postseason, but you probably didn’t notice that as rookie Shonn Greene has bolstered New York’s rushing attack, giving them a two-headed monster with Jones. Indianapolis’ rushing defense was merely middle of the pack during the regular season, even if the 200-plus yards in Week 16 wasn’t necessarily indicative.
The question for New York continues to be rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. Can the guy who couldn’t even slide right in the middle of the season make it all the way to the Super Bowl?
Splitting time, neither Greene or Jones reaches the century mark, but either or both could find the end zone. And while Sanchez throws an interception nearly every time in 10,001 simulations, the Jets’ vaunted passing defense finds a way to limit Manning as New York advances to the Super Bowl 52.9% of the time by a score of 22-21.
NFC Conference Championship: Vikings 26 @ Saints 29
While defense might lead to a championship in the AFC, the NFC may have an offensive slugfest on its hands in the title game.
The New Orleans Saints and Minnesota Vikings didn’t meet up in the regular season, but there are plenty of intriguing matchups, particularly on the offensive sides of the ball. One of the best quarterbacks of all time, Favre, will match up with perhaps the best quarterback this season, Drew Brees. Ever-explosive Adrian Peterson will lock horns with Divisional Playoff star Reggie Bush. And on the defensive side, Saints cornerback Darren Sharper takes on his old team.
The Vikings made it to the NFC Championship by waxing the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday and they did it mostly through the air. The Vikings had the seventh-best passing offense during the regular season, averaging 8 yards per pass attempt, but they’ll likely need to get back to a more balanced approach on Sunday. They also had the 13th-ranked rushing offense in the regular season, but averaged just 3.3 yards per carry in their victory over Dallas.
The Saints ranked just 24th against the run during the regular season, which should allow Peterson and Chester Taylor a little more breathing room. Whether the same will go for Favre against his former Packers teammate Sharper and the Saints secondary might be another story. They put the clamps on the Cardinals last week - mostly by taking Kurt Warner out of the game, literally - and did have a pass defense that ranked in the top half of the league.
While the Vikings are capable of putting up points, if there’s one team that most opponents wouldn’t want to get into a shootout with, it would most likely be the Saints.
New Orleans tied for the league lead during the regular season at 6.3 yards per play, thanks mostly to the arm of Brees, who led the Saints to the third-best passing attack at 8.3 yards per attempt. A bit more quietly though, they also had the sixth-best rushing attack in terms of yards per carry and ran for five yards per touch against the Cardinals in the last round.
The Vikings defensive line, led by Jared Allen, will likely need to get to Brees early and often to give Minnesota a shot. The Vikings were simply middle of the road on defense this year, giving up just over five yards per play, but found a way to rattle Tony Romo last week. If Brees has time to throw, Minnesota is in trouble as it brings just the 20th-ranked passing defense. Even if their top-five rushing defense stops Bush and Pierre Thomas, Brees could be in for a big day.
In 10,001 simulations, he averages 265 yards per game and a pair of touchdowns, but is matches almost step for step by Favre. And even though Peterson tops the century mark and finds the end zone in nearly every simulation, the Saints run for more yards per carry and seem to be just a tiny bit more efficient. And in an offensive battle, New Orleans comes out on top 54.2% of the time but a score of 29-26.
A Jets-Saints Super Bowl? The computer liked that matchup when the playoffs began. And it’s not backing off now.
by Eric Schmoldt at WhatIfSports.com
AFC Conference Championship: NY Jets 22 @ Colts 21
Rex Ryan doesn’t expect a second consecutive Christmas present.
He might not need one.
The Indianapolis Colts rolled over in the second half during a Week 16 matchup with the New York Jets, taking out their starters and drawing the ire of a nation by giving up on a 19-0 record. Thomas Jones ran for more than 100 yards and the Jets ran for more than 200, scoring 26 second-half points against the Colts’ b squad to win 29-15.
Less than a month later, the Jets will have to go four quarters against Indianapolis’ best, but there are numbers that indicate they just might pull off their third upset in a row.
By now it’s no secret that New York has the league’s top defense as they’ve shown it off in the first two weeks of the playoffs. On the season, they gave up just 4.2 yards per play, more than half a yard better than the next best defense. They also had the league’s fourth-best rushing defense, allowing less than four yards per play. That number will be key in making the Colts a one-dimensional team, which teams have been able to do this season as Indy has just the 30th-ranked rushing offense in the NFL.
The Colts will have to make up for it with their passing game, which, behind star quarterback Peyton Manning, did rank in the top 10 this year. That said, the Jets bring the No. 1 passing defense in with them as well.
If anyone is going to stop Indianapolis’ vaunted offense, it’s likely the Jets. But whether they can they keep their ground game rolling to score enough points to beat the Colts is another question.
The Jets ranked fifth in the regular season at 4.5 yards per carry. That number has shrunk slightly to 4.3 in the postseason, but you probably didn’t notice that as rookie Shonn Greene has bolstered New York’s rushing attack, giving them a two-headed monster with Jones. Indianapolis’ rushing defense was merely middle of the pack during the regular season, even if the 200-plus yards in Week 16 wasn’t necessarily indicative.
The question for New York continues to be rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. Can the guy who couldn’t even slide right in the middle of the season make it all the way to the Super Bowl?
Splitting time, neither Greene or Jones reaches the century mark, but either or both could find the end zone. And while Sanchez throws an interception nearly every time in 10,001 simulations, the Jets’ vaunted passing defense finds a way to limit Manning as New York advances to the Super Bowl 52.9% of the time by a score of 22-21.
NFC Conference Championship: Vikings 26 @ Saints 29
While defense might lead to a championship in the AFC, the NFC may have an offensive slugfest on its hands in the title game.
The New Orleans Saints and Minnesota Vikings didn’t meet up in the regular season, but there are plenty of intriguing matchups, particularly on the offensive sides of the ball. One of the best quarterbacks of all time, Favre, will match up with perhaps the best quarterback this season, Drew Brees. Ever-explosive Adrian Peterson will lock horns with Divisional Playoff star Reggie Bush. And on the defensive side, Saints cornerback Darren Sharper takes on his old team.
The Vikings made it to the NFC Championship by waxing the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday and they did it mostly through the air. The Vikings had the seventh-best passing offense during the regular season, averaging 8 yards per pass attempt, but they’ll likely need to get back to a more balanced approach on Sunday. They also had the 13th-ranked rushing offense in the regular season, but averaged just 3.3 yards per carry in their victory over Dallas.
The Saints ranked just 24th against the run during the regular season, which should allow Peterson and Chester Taylor a little more breathing room. Whether the same will go for Favre against his former Packers teammate Sharper and the Saints secondary might be another story. They put the clamps on the Cardinals last week - mostly by taking Kurt Warner out of the game, literally - and did have a pass defense that ranked in the top half of the league.
While the Vikings are capable of putting up points, if there’s one team that most opponents wouldn’t want to get into a shootout with, it would most likely be the Saints.
New Orleans tied for the league lead during the regular season at 6.3 yards per play, thanks mostly to the arm of Brees, who led the Saints to the third-best passing attack at 8.3 yards per attempt. A bit more quietly though, they also had the sixth-best rushing attack in terms of yards per carry and ran for five yards per touch against the Cardinals in the last round.
The Vikings defensive line, led by Jared Allen, will likely need to get to Brees early and often to give Minnesota a shot. The Vikings were simply middle of the road on defense this year, giving up just over five yards per play, but found a way to rattle Tony Romo last week. If Brees has time to throw, Minnesota is in trouble as it brings just the 20th-ranked passing defense. Even if their top-five rushing defense stops Bush and Pierre Thomas, Brees could be in for a big day.
In 10,001 simulations, he averages 265 yards per game and a pair of touchdowns, but is matches almost step for step by Favre. And even though Peterson tops the century mark and finds the end zone in nearly every simulation, the Saints run for more yards per carry and seem to be just a tiny bit more efficient. And in an offensive battle, New Orleans comes out on top 54.2% of the time but a score of 29-26.
A Jets-Saints Super Bowl? The computer liked that matchup when the playoffs began. And it’s not backing off now.
I heard the Jets are already promoting 2009 AFC Championship gear on their website pretty hard.
Big Balls right here lol.
Big Balls right here lol.
sorta like when Namath done some early bragging and took
down the heavily favored Colts in SuperBowl III ~ 16 to 7.
gonna be deja vu all over again.......
oh yeah, I ordered the cap already bro.......
Very nice ST4L! I see Rex is rubbing off on NYC. The Babe was good at that too.
It sure is a whole lot of fun!
It sure is a whole lot of fun!
UPDATED ODDS (AGAIN)....... (and yet again)
Round Three: AFC & NFC Conference Championship Games
Round Three: AFC & NFC Conference Championship Games
Favorite........ Spread........ Underdog........Over/Under.......Date/Time
================================================
Indianapolis........-8.5......New York..................40................1/24 @ 3:00pm*
New Orleans........-3.5.....Minnesota.................53.5.............1/24 @ 6:40pm*
Home Teams
All times eastern
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an interesting tidbit from FOX Sports.......
an interesting tidbit from FOX Sports.......
Why CBS wants the Jets to lose
By Darren Rovell, CNBC.com Jan 22, 7:01 pm EST
It’s the barbershop and water cooler talk across the country.
Many fans immediately look to market size and figure that the New York Jets have to be one of the teams.
And they’d be wrong.
“The matchup that will do the best is Indianapolis against Minnesota,” said former CBS Sports president Neal Pilson, who now runs his own consultancy firm. “It’s a matchup that features two marquee players in Peyton [Manning] and [Brett] Favre and the rating you’ll get for that exceeds any other combination.”
Pilson reasons that the New York market will already pull a big rating anyway and that the Jets being in the game won’t influence the ratings nationally more than Manning’s presence in the game could.
“Sure, you’d get the New York market, but you have to remember that the Jets are largely unknown as you get further away from the Hudson River,” Pilson said. “Networks don’t want Cinderella stories at the end. In baseball, college basketball and football, they want the strong, established teams.”
That’s why Pilson says the Jets against the Saints are the worst matchup.
There’s one caveat to all this analysis and that is that a less desirable matchup can yield a higher rating if the game is better. The quality of the game, Pilson says, overshadows the quality of the teams.
The highest rated Super Bowl in the last decade was Super Bowl XXXIV between the St. Louis Rams and the Tennessee Titans in 2000. That game came down to the last play with the Titans’ Kevin Dyson trying unsuccessfully to reach the ball into the end zone.
If CBS, which is broadcasting the game, gets the ideal matchup in the Colts and Vikings, Pilson said it could be worth up to about four million more viewers than the worst matchup in the Jets and Saints. The Super Bowl, with any combination of teams playing in it, is good for at least 90 million US viewers.
an interesting tidbit from FOX Sports.......
Why CBS wants the Jets to lose
By Darren Rovell, CNBC.com Jan 22, 7:01 pm EST
It’s the barbershop and water cooler talk across the country.
Many fans immediately look to market size and figure that the New York Jets have to be one of the teams.
And they’d be wrong.
“The matchup that will do the best is Indianapolis against Minnesota,” said former CBS Sports president Neal Pilson, who now runs his own consultancy firm. “It’s a matchup that features two marquee players in Peyton [Manning] and [Brett] Favre and the rating you’ll get for that exceeds any other combination.”
Pilson reasons that the New York market will already pull a big rating anyway and that the Jets being in the game won’t influence the ratings nationally more than Manning’s presence in the game could.
“Sure, you’d get the New York market, but you have to remember that the Jets are largely unknown as you get further away from the Hudson River,” Pilson said. “Networks don’t want Cinderella stories at the end. In baseball, college basketball and football, they want the strong, established teams.”
That’s why Pilson says the Jets against the Saints are the worst matchup.
There’s one caveat to all this analysis and that is that a less desirable matchup can yield a higher rating if the game is better. The quality of the game, Pilson says, overshadows the quality of the teams.
The highest rated Super Bowl in the last decade was Super Bowl XXXIV between the St. Louis Rams and the Tennessee Titans in 2000. That game came down to the last play with the Titans’ Kevin Dyson trying unsuccessfully to reach the ball into the end zone.
If CBS, which is broadcasting the game, gets the ideal matchup in the Colts and Vikings, Pilson said it could be worth up to about four million more viewers than the worst matchup in the Jets and Saints. The Super Bowl, with any combination of teams playing in it, is good for at least 90 million US viewers.
The worst match up the Jets and the Saint?
I think Mr. Rovell's head is stuck inside the water cooler or his ass.
Probably his ass.
I think Mr. Rovell's head is stuck inside the water cooler or his ass.
Probably his ass.
the reason is clear actually, w/the Jets in it it just won't draw that many
more viewers. No matter WHO'S in the Super Bowl EVERY single NY sports
fan is watching the game regardless, I'm a native NY'er & it's feverish out
there, the Bowl is just an excuse for $100 per square football pools, party
after party & bar hopping etc....... so the Jets add nothing to the big draw,
as mentioned west of the Hudson the Jets have no fan base, no big deal.
Manning vs Favre?
Stellar QBs & perhaps even more so evenly matched? this makes sense as
the big draw ticket for sure.
Drew Brees for me? I'm not a Saints fan, didn't watch a single game until last
weeks game against AZ so neither the Brees name nor the Saints franchise is
going to draw me into watching the game (j/k, a NYer I watch no matter) like
many others that would feel the same across the country. Teams like Chicago,
Dallas, even Oakland have that certain deep franchise draw that drives up the
SB ratings for just being in it. Like the Yankees being in the WSeries increased
the viewing by 43% last yr.
I see the points being made and I thought they were mostly valid too.......
a 51 ~ 45 OT game good? both defenses sucked and neither is
in the playoffs, wonder why? it's the defense that wins games.
I know, I know. He does have very good points. So do you. It's about the $$ in the end.
We just never get damn love down here.
Peyton vs Favre would make an excellent NFL Film down the road. I think the Jets vs the Saint would too. I believe there could be a Katrina effect for ratings.
I would think NO vs Indy would be the worst play. Not as much drama IMO.
EDIT: I dunno, Peyton anything is going to draw big crowds of viewers because the dude is just insane.
We just never get damn love down here.
Peyton vs Favre would make an excellent NFL Film down the road. I think the Jets vs the Saint would too. I believe there could be a Katrina effect for ratings.
I would think NO vs Indy would be the worst play. Not as much drama IMO.
EDIT: I dunno, Peyton anything is going to draw big crowds of viewers because the dude is just insane.
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no matter what it's GREAT when you have a team in it,
a bit less so if & when your pony drops from the race.
I'll be seated & cheering by the waitress station @ the St. Cloud Hooters later today.......
D
dongle69
It is always great to see the Jersey Jets get their asses wiped.
It is better when the Dolphins are kicking their asses (twice this season), but it was fun to watch nonetheless.
At least Ryan has another chance to cry now.
It is better when the Dolphins are kicking their asses (twice this season), but it was fun to watch nonetheless.
At least Ryan has another chance to cry now.
Colts rocked em' Defense may win championships, but you need to score more than the other team. Hit the book hard on that game . At least the New York fans will shut up( maybe) till baseball season starts. The vaunted Jets defense SUCKED today at least Sanchez did not which was the only suprise. Also Ryan is a douche for wearing that t-shirt, showed how classless he is.
Now it's official, two good games out of the whole playoffs. Vikings gave that game away if you ask me. Fumble city. Fav-RUH didn't melt down the whole season, only to throw a bonehead INT and the game on the winning drive. All he had to do was tuck it away and run.
I wasn't too impressed with the Saints in that game. Had to lower my estimate of their chances in the Bowl. Now I think Peyton & the Colts have a good chance to win. I hope they kick Saint ass. They're going to see quick releases from Manning and ball control from the Colts, not fumbalaya everywhere.
I wasn't too impressed with the Saints in that game. Had to lower my estimate of their chances in the Bowl. Now I think Peyton & the Colts have a good chance to win. I hope they kick Saint ass. They're going to see quick releases from Manning and ball control from the Colts, not fumbalaya everywhere.
i have followed the Saints since Archie was QB. i like the Colts because Peyton was a UT qb. either team, i will enjoy seeing win. i just wish the Vikes could have held on to the ball a tad better. hate seeing a great QB lose because his team fumbled 5 times. the game was NOT as close as it looked; looking at stats you would have thought Favre got them there...sad. AOH
