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Old 05-30-2012, 10:47 PM #151
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Originally Posted by ShroomDr View Post
Looks like the Fed is working and the sky is not falling.
The markets in Europe are melting down as well as the EUR. Investors are fleeing into USD, Treasuries, and German Bunds.

The 2 year German Bund is now at 0% and our 10y hit a record low of 1.67% today. Do you know what that means? Do you recognize the magnitude of what negative interest rates mean in real terms?

The market is so scared of investing in everything else that they will pay Germany and the US government to hold their money.

The USD has rallied and will continue to do so as Europe falls into the abyss. Especially as the China "hard landing" fear becomes a reality.

We may be the "nicest house in the worst neighborhood," but the neighborhood is on fire and burning down and it's just a matter of time before the MSM and the masses stop being distracted with the tragedy in Europe and realize we are in exactly the same (if not worse) situation.

Then the fear trade becomes, "afraid of the USD," and severe market dislocations would follow.
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Old 05-31-2012, 12:09 AM #152
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Old 05-31-2012, 12:27 AM #153
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-...-swan?tw_p=twt

Enter The Swan

Charles Hugh Smith (along with many, many, many others) thinks there may be a great decoupling as the world sinks deeper into the mire, and that the dollar could be set to benefit:

This “safe haven” status can be discerned in the strengthening U.S. dollar. Despite a central bank (The Federal Reserve) with an avowed goal of weakening the nation’s currency (the U.S. dollar), the USD has been in an long-term uptrend for a year–a trend I have noted many times here, starting in April 2011.



That means a bet in the U.S. bond or stock market is a double bet, as these markets are denominated in U.S. dollars. Even if they go nowhere, the capital invested in them will gain purchasing power as the dollar strengthens.



All this suggests a “decoupling” of the U.S. bond and stock markets from the rest of the globe’s markets. Put yourself in the shoes of someone responsible for safekeeping $100 billion and keeping much of it liquid in treacherous times, and ask yourself: where can you park this money where it won’t blow up the market just from its size? What are the safest, most liquid markets out there?



The answer will very likely point the future direction of global markets.

Smith is going along with one of the most conventional pieces of conventional wisdom: that in risky and troubled times investors will seek out the dollar as a haven. That’s what happened in 2008. That’s what is happening now as rates on treasuries sink to all-time-lows. And that’s what has happened throughout the era of petrodollar hegemony.

But the problem with conventions is that they are there to be broken, the problem with conventional wisdom is that it is there to be killed, roasted and served on a silver platter.

The era of petrodollar hegemony is slowly dying, and the assumptions and conventions of that era are dying with it. For now, the shadow of that old world is still flailing on like Wile E. Coyote, hovering in midair.

As I wrote last week:

How did the dollar die? First it died slowly — then all at once.



The shift away from the dollar has quickly manifested itself in bilateral and multilateral agreements between nations to ditch the dollar for bilateral and multilateral trade, beginning with the chief antagonists China and Russia, and continuing through Iran, India, Japan, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia.



So the ground seems to have fallen out from beneath the petrodollar world order.

Enter the Swan:



We know the U.S. is a big and liquid (though not really very transparent) market. We know that the rest of the world — led by Europe’s myriad issues, and China’s bursting housing bubble — is teetering on the edge of a precipice, and without a miracle will fall (perhaps sooner, rather than later).

But we also know that America is inextricably interconnected to this mess. If Europe (or China or both) disintegrates, triggering (another) global default cascade, America will be stung by its European banking exposures, its exposures to global energy markets and global trade flows. Simply, there cannot be financial decoupling, not in this hyper-connected, hyper-leveraged world.

And would funds surge into US Treasuries even in such an instance? Maybe initially — fund managers have been conditioned by years of convention to do so. But how long can fund managers accept negative real rates of return? Or — much more importantly — how long will the Fed accept such a surge? The answer is not very long at all. Bernanke’s economic strategy has been focussed on turning treasuries into a losing investment, on the face of it to “encourage risk-taking” (or — much more significantly — keep the Treasury’s borrowing costs cheap).

All of this suggests a global crash or proto-crash will be followed by a huge global money printing operation, probably spearheaded by the Fed. Don’t let the Europeans fool anyone, either — Germany will not let the Euro crumble for fear of money printing. When push comes to shove they will print and fiscally consolidate to save their pet project (though perhaps demanding gold as collateral, and perhaps kicking out some delinquents). China will spew trillions of stimulus money into more and deeper malinvestment (why have ten ghost cities when you can have fifty? Good news for aggregate demand!).

So Paul Krugman will likely get something much closer to what he claims to want. Problem solved?

Nope. You can’t solve deep-rooted structural problems — malinvestment, social change, deindustrialisation, global trade imbalances, systemic fragility, financialisation, imperial decline, cultural stupefaction (etc, etc, etc) — by throwing money at problems. All throwing more money can do is buy a little more time (and undermine the currency). The problem with that is that a superficial recovery fools policy-makers, investors and citizens into believing that problems are fixed when they are not. Eventually — perhaps slowly, or perhaps quickly — unless the non-monetary problems are truly dealt with (very unlikely), they will boil over again.

As the devaluation heats up things will likely become a huge global game of beggar thy neighbour. A global devaluation will likely increase the growing tensions between the creditor and debtor nations to breaking point. Our current system of huge trade imbalances guarantees that someone (the West) is getting a free lunch , and that someone else (the Rest) is getting screwed. Such a system is fundamentally fragile, and fundamentally unstable. Currency wars will likely give way to economic wars, which may well give way to subterfuge and proxy wars as creditors seek their pound of flesh, and debtors seek to cast off their chains. Good news, then, for weapons contractors and the security state.
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Old 05-31-2012, 01:56 AM #154
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpasticGramps View Post
Your right it exports inflation to third world countries making it harder for the poor to eat. Proud to be an American?
Who claimed pride? Happy to be in the situtaion vs the alternative, absolutely
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Originally Posted by SpasticGramps View Post
There is always an alternative and the market will/is find(ing) it. Just because we are the "cleanest dirty shirt" or "best looking house in the worse neighborhood" or whatever catchy nonsense phrase the MSM uses to describe a situation where all developed countries are finished, doesn't mean the market won't find another alternative. It always eventually finds the best option. And there is nothing the Fed, whom you ascribe god like powers too, can do about it.
There is ZERO MSM talking about how the Fed fucks third world and developing countries (read: Brazil). They may have one guest who wrote a book, but they certainly are not pushing the realities we both obviously agree on.

Again, there is no other options, and there never will be (as long as Russia and China are deemed more corrupt than the USA). You hit it right on the head, the world didnt find the greatest option, they use the 'best' option available. (The greatest would be some incorruptible and impartial entity. No one is offering this.)

The Fed will continue to manipulate world markets for the benefit of the USA. According to that article, they have been doing a better job of it than the other 15 competing currencies.
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Since we are at war with "weapons" then it's reasonable to assume someone will retaliate appropriately, no?
They have sticks and stones, we have thermonuclear weapons. We have 'infected' them, they cant 'kill' us without seriously harming themselves. China is the only one who could do it, but they would sacrifice their entire middle class, and it could cause such civil unrest the country could fracture.

Moral high ground it is not, but the Fed pretty much has rigged the game for the USA and world wide capitalism.
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Old 05-31-2012, 02:29 AM #155
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h19FZ...&feature=share .. This guy does not know what you are talking about! But I wish I could actually hear what he is saying in English! Lol.. He is not liking the one man rule,(King), that is going on that is for certain! Lol..If I was there I would ask him: "You had enough Communisum yet?" .. monkey5
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Old 05-31-2012, 02:32 AM #156
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Is there a Doctor in the House? Paging Dr Ron Paul ..Please come to the House chambers! Thank you for this break in the action! Lol.. monkey5
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Old 05-31-2012, 03:56 AM #157
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Originally Posted by ShroomDr View Post
Who claimed pride? Happy to be in the situtaion vs the alternative, absolutely
Happy enough to still support it even though you know it's wrong. Just so long as the destructive policies don't effect you personally right?
Quote:
There is ZERO MSM talking about how the Fed fucks third world and developing countries (read: Brazil).
Why anyone would give any credence to the MSM is beyond me. This is common (economic) sense. Relying on MSM outlets to think for you isn't good.

Here are a few examples that squeaked through the cracks.

Fed Exports Inflation, Stokes Revolutions Forbes
Quote:
Who is responsible for the commodity and food inflation? Chairman Ben Bernanke denies that it is the Fed. Of course, the cause of inflation is hard enough to prove in a domestic economy, much less from the monetary policy followed by a central bank in a different country.
...........

So, let’s not fool ourselves. The unrest in the Middle East has a lot to do with food and commodity prices, and Fed QE policies may have a lot to do with those prices.
The World needs a new Louvre Accord Business Insider
Quote:
The US dollar, as the world’s reserve currency, has a very important role in the exchange of value between nations. It is currently estimated that 70% of all global trade is transacted in US Dollars. It is the volatility in the value of the US dollar compared to its trading partners, which is driving fears of a global trade war.

The FX rates between nations are bouncing up and down based on global macro market dynamics. The price of most commodities is skyrocketing, with the grains regularly limiting up currently. The US is continuing to see an increase in food exports, as US Farmers book nominal historic prices.

The exporting of inflation to third world nations is now causing catastrophic results in nations historically ran by autocrats with strong ties to the United States foreign policy. The events in Tunisia and Egypt have unleashed a rising tide of anti-Americanism in the region.

If the current administration is intentionally destabilizing dictators & autocrats, the region should expect the policies of the Federal Reserve to continue. The current course of action by the Federal Reserve is directly feeding the populous revolutions with public anger at rising food costs.

The invisible hand of the market is directly pulling the strings of the people rioting. This will continue until the Federal Reserve decides that it has inflicted enough inflation on the globe. This is economic war, even if professors of Government are unaware of the implications of their actions.
The Latest American Export: Inflation Wall Street Journal
In 2010, prices rose by more than 5% in major emerging markets such as China, Brazil and Indonesia.
Quote:
The world saw a surge in the dollar prices of primary commodity prices in 1971-73 following the Nixon shock of 1971 when the U.S. abandoned the gold standard. There was also a commodity price surge during the Greenspan-Bernanke shock of 2003-04, when the federal-funds rate was reduced to an unprecedented low of 1% followed by a falling dollar.

Now we have what one might call the Bernanke shock. The Fed has set U.S. short-term interest rates at essentially zero since September 2008, followed in 2010 by quantitative easing to drive down long-term rates. Predictably, primary commodity prices in 2009-10 surged. In 2010 alone, all items in the Economist's dollar commodity price index rose 33.5%, while the industrial raw materials component soared a remarkable 37.4.%.
And just wait for QE3, QE4, QEn.........
Quote:
Again, there is no other options, and there never will be (as long as Russia and China are deemed more corrupt than the USA).
Nothing last forever which means never shouldn't be part of your lexicon.
Quote:
The Fed will continue to manipulate world markets for the benefit of the USA. According to that article, they have been doing a better job of it than the other 15 competing currencies.
I just don't understand how you can think this will go on indefinitely and end well for us or anyone else.
Quote:
They have sticks and stones, we have thermonuclear weapons. We have 'infected' them, they cant 'kill' us without seriously harming themselves.
And sometimes in war everyone ends up killing themselves. With the scale of economic warfare underway right now there will be no winners.
Quote:
Moral high ground it is not, but the Fed pretty much has rigged the game for the USA and world wide capitalism.
Rigged games never end well. Especially when the suckers end up with nothing and have nothing to lose.
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Old 05-31-2012, 04:17 AM #158
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http://americanfreepress.net/?p=4183 ~ I like this answer! Americans just need to wake up that is all ..figure out what is going on ..and make some real change for our selfs! monkey5
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Old 05-31-2012, 04:29 AM #159
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So..in reality we should not be bailing banks out with our money at all we should be kicking them to the curb & out of our country! Now! We should not be bailing out any business really..too big to fail...B.S. ... monkey5
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Old 05-31-2012, 06:26 AM #160
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