[Dropped Cat]

I know a guy out west that grows in several greenhouses,
commercial, organic kosher, 70K sqft.

He pre sells the entire crop while in veg.

One of his plots got seeded involuntarily and he made
more money from the seeds then from the harvest.

Fired the horticulturist, lol

Good times

[Lester Beans]

Originally Posted by yesum

Illegal weed will fall like a rock, has already in California. Legal will be taxed and regulated so much like tobacco that it will most likely never be real cheap.

Places like Oklahoma which may never legalize, I guess it will be a fairly high end product. As more states legalize the overflow will go into the illegal states and drive down prices.

Sam Skunkman said you can grow outdoor pot for about the same cost as tomatoes. Having grown both I think that pot is harder to do well but I get his point. Boutique pot will always have a small clientele willing to pay more.

I agree with Sam. It is however, as difficult to cultivate high quality cannabis as it is high quality tomatoes. That's the difference, anyone can grow average weed or red round bland tomatoes. Its the good stuff that is so hard to find and commands the top prices.

There will always be demand for the very finest, regardless of the legal status.

Fat spliff and a nice tomato sandwich.....woot woot!

[St. Phatty]

One way to approach it is, ask the question -

What is total consumption, informal ("black market") and formal ("legal") ?

Will total consumption INCREASE now that some states have quasi-legalization ?


Personally, I've never been more inclined to consume pot because it was legal.

My consumption didn't go up because it was legal.

I didn't spend more because it was legal.


Obviously, we can't extrapolate from my own experience, or other old-timers.


But it seems to me, demand is relatively static - people who like pot are already smoking it.

And the supply ... WOW.

It seems like people are thinking, "if I'm going to make money, I have to grow A LOT."


But it results in a situation that reminds me of "Game Theory".

With all the growers doing what is logical to increase their grow revenues, supply increases massively ... prices drop ... the growers who can move their product/ have good connections generate some revenues.

Overall, however, I don't think the total amount of money people spend on Cannabis is going to increase.


If only we could convince the Chinese that they need American weed ... and that's it worth as much as an iPhone.

[Pwyll]

Originally Posted by Lester Beans

I agree with Sam. It is however, as difficult to cultivate high quality cannabis as it is high quality tomatoes. That's the difference, anyone can grow average weed or red round bland tomatoes. Its the good stuff that is so hard to find and commands the top prices.

There will always be demand for the very finest, regardless of the legal status.

Fat spliff and a nice tomato sandwich.....woot woot!

If I go into a local grocery store I can find tomatoes from say $1 a pound to $3 a pound. And that's just regular tomatoes, nothing fancy.Weed the price from any given supplier typically doesn't vary by more than 25%, if that. So there is not much incentive to grow long-flowering low yielding strains. Except for personal use and sharing

[MJPassion]

Excellent point Pwyall.

Until the market hits its saturation point, there will never be enough.
I don't think we're anywhere near that point in the USA. We're a bunch of consumers!

[hellfire]

It's going to be about people's tastes and flavors, plus what sells commercial. Think of it like beer, there's going to be craft organic bud and commercial Monsanto coor light tier bud.

Prices will definitely drop, unless you have that niche.

[bigganjabud]

I be honest mate I need it all but not dud bud them superhero strains with added Shatter in me doors for me so yeah.......

I need it all

[DocTim420]

If you compare cannabis to the wine industry, then I believe there are several parallels to what happens there--will/might happen here.

There are basically 3 tranches of wine consumers: High End, Low End and Commercial.

High End wine (quality over quantity) has a penchant for complexity and rarity (complex flavors/aromas that are rare and hard to find). About half of the production is sold by the winery via "club" or "membership lists" with waiting lists and the other half going to restaurants/hotels...rarely are bottles sold in retail stores. The High End consumer has no problem dropping several Benjamins for a single bottle of wine and may belong to several "clubs" thus receiving several shipments during the year. This group experiences the least amount of decline during a economic recession and the largest growth during good times.

Low End wine (quantity over quality) where low/affordable pricing is name of the game. Wine is sourced from mediocre vineyards and blended together to maintain consistent "quality"...always tastes the same. Sold in gallon jugs, boxed wine and available everywhere. The Low End consumer will never spend $100 for a bottle of wine and are proud of their $2 buck chuck finds. This tranche of consumers increases during bad economic times and decreases during good economic times...it basically is contrarian to current economics of the marketplace.

Commercial quality wine (everyone else) is the largest group of consumers and is produced by small guys (less then 30,000 cases per year) and ginormous wineries (those that produce 500,000+ cases per year). All High End winos were "commercial winos" at one time, but not all "commercial winos" become "High End winos". High turnover of vineyards and wineries is commonplace due to the slim margins for profit (primarily to distribution costs). Majority of commercial wine consumers buy more wine during good economic times...and less when times are tough--it basically mirrors the current economics of the marketplace.

So, there you have it. High End consumers remain loyal during bad times and increase in numbers during good times. Low End consumers buy more during bad times and decrease in numbers during good times (many graduate to "commercial consumer" status). Commercial consumers mirror the economics of their consumers--increased sales during good times, decreased sales during bad times.

Sooo...if you grow the strain that everybody else grows, grow the same style and use same methods as everybody else, including the same nutes and ferts, then should it be any surprise that you are stuck in the "commercial" tranche and getting the same low price as everybody else is getting?

I say--pick your market...then exploit yourself.

[Moonjuice5050]

Originally Posted by Pwyll

In Colorado the wholesale price of weed went from $1800 to $900. But in Colorado most of the weed is sold at commodity prices whereas I believe in cali there is a bigger market for premium product.

Yeah hahaha wow of your poppin offlbs for that price A:your sellin Schwag B: your desperate and have no clients C:your a bitch and can't handle biz D: you're part of the problem bringing our fire ass ganja down in price cuz u flooding the market with bullshit, I'm still getting 2-2.4...best step that game up haha or get the fuck out

[Moonjuice5050]

And by the way I've lived n Nederland for nearly 8 years don't give me the,,,you don't even know what's up talk, I love that town and most of the growers there, have a special place in my heart, nonetheless I spread the chem91, Durban, White Russian, up there