Oregon Legal Cannabis Market Muse (production) - Cannabis B2B Network - International Cannagraphic Magazine Forums

cloudseeder · 01-29-2016, 12:22 AM

First I'd like to say thank you to everyone in advance. I appreciate all perspectives and views.

For the past several years cannabis production in Oregon has largely been in the hands of individuals (pseudo small businesses), most of which operated without regulation, or without paying taxes. With legalization and associated regulation and taxation it's probable that many of those small businesses will fail. Replaced by big companies run by people who already have an economic advantage in society. Now that cannabis is legal in Oregon how will production change, or will it?

Just a little background. With a government issued license it's now legal to grow up to 10k sq. ft. indoor or 40k sq. ft. outdoor. There is no current restriction on the number of licenses the state will issue. Oregon offers licensees full vertical integration (producer, processor and retail). Southern Oregon offers an excellent climate for outdoor grown cannabis.

Indoor vs. Outdoor
---------------------
Which form of production do you think will succeed? Indoor, outdoor or hybrid? This should be fun. The issue seems to come down to quality vs. cost of production. One side says you can't grow great cannabis outdoors. The other side says the indoor guys are energy sucking pigs that need to be replaced with more sustainable growing practices.

The perceived, or real, quality differences between indoor and outdoor grown cannabis debate dates back to some of my earliest issues of High Times (the 70's). Some say the market will demand pampered indoor and that outdoor will disappear, or be used for oil. Others are of the opinion that pure economics will win and outdoor will push indoor out of the market. Can quality craft cannabis be grown outdoors? Not in a high tech DLI augmented greenhouse. As soon as you add supplemental lighting to a greenhouse you are considered an indoor grower and limited to 10k sq. ft.

Oregon Cannabis Market
----------------------------
Oregon is a small market. Estimates are around 1.37 millions ounces annual. That number was based on an average use formula that has proven to be inaccurate (low). It turns out that heavy smokers account for significantly more (70%) of the over-all consumption. CO missed consumption estimates by 30 to 110%. Even so, if we add another 50% for high use consumers annual demand is still just around 2 million ounces.

Current Estimated OR Medical Cannabis Production
---------------------------------------------------------
Given the number of registered patients and grow sites in the current medical marijuana program I estimate those growers currently exceed the demands of the entire state by 3 to 4 times. Even as patients migrate to the legal market the grey market will persist for many years. Some estimates state that the grey market will still command 60% of their current black market in 3 years.

Even though many medical growers will go out of business, many will make the transition to the legal market or go underground. But even if all of them went out of business it wouldn't take many legal grow ops to supply the demand of all of OR, tourists and commuters. Depending on the ratio of indoor to outdoor, it's estimated to be 80/20 now, it won't take that many 1 acre farms or 10k indoor grow ops to supply the expected demand.

Consumers
-------------
What are consumers buying now? I surveyed the local retail cannabis shops in Portland last weekend and found shops selling both indoor and outdoor. Only one shop advertised "sun grown", the others were nice enough to help in my research but told me they don't market the product as indoor or outdoor. An informal survey indicates consumers are currently "buying the numbers". They buy based on cost (lowest) or THC/CBD (highest).

After studying and pondering these questions, and many more, over the last year I thought I ask what the world thinks.

Which producer do you think will be most successful, indoor, outdoor or both?

Will Oregon end up with a micro craft cannabis market, like our awesome micro craft beer market? Or, like is happening in CO will the small producers be pushed out of the market? New legislation was introduced last week that would allow medical patients to contract with recreational growers. Reading between the lines, that allows existing medical growers an easy transition to the legal market. But how many of these players will remain in a highly regulated market 3 years from now?

I look forward to hearing your views.

cloudseeder · 01-29-2016, 01:30 AM

Correction. Production is estimated to be 80% outdoor to 20% indoor. I reversed them in the above post.

olekingkole · 01-30-2016, 08:05 PM

80% outdoor to 20% indoor? I think you had it right the first time.
My guess is most of the outdoor crop won't be sold as flowers, with the exception of what is grown in shutter houses. Outdoor growers face several obstacles, in particular, uncertain weather and low UVB levels during harvest. Earlier flowering varieties are generally less desirable than later flowering ones- to put it bluntly, it's Early Girl vs. OG Kush and its pretty clear which buyers prefer. So you can't escape weather and low UVB that way.

stoned-trout · 01-30-2016, 08:11 PM

light dep outdoor while the weather is nice and the sun is strong....yeehaw

olekingkole · 01-30-2016, 11:28 PM

Pulling tarps over 40k sq. ft twice a day? Better call in the Marines.

stoned-trout · 02-01-2016, 01:20 AM

theres more than 1 way to skin a cat....yeehaw

olekingkole · 02-02-2016, 03:04 AM

730 nm bulbs? autoflowers in heated beds?

Obsidian · 02-04-2016, 04:43 AM

The City of Portland really does not reflect the whole Oregon Cannabis market, that city is it's own Hell.
Once one leave Portland, the whole game changes.

Dr.King · 02-05-2016, 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Obsidian

The City of Portland really does not reflect the whole Oregon Cannabis market, that city is it's own Hell.
Once one leave Portland, the whole game changes.

That is very interesting. How much does it change once one leaves Portland? Why is Portland such a hell hole for the Cannabis market? I plan on moving out their but about a hour or so away from Portland. Figured I would need to drive into Portland to sell my Cannabis... other hot spots or something? The more information the better. Thanks to all

.

farmerlion · 02-07-2016, 05:56 AM

I am a dedicated sativa indoor grower. Well 75% to 100% sativa genetics is what I work with anyway. I'm looking at Oregon as a potential place to move to and grow legally. I have spent the last seven years just working out light schedules and climates for my environment. I don't clone at all, everything is from seed. (not the norm I know). I feel there is always a market for the highest of quality(cars, boats, whiskey, ect). This market remains unchanged through economic adversities. I'm making a trip out this summer to prospect a small place tucked away from society. To answer who wins out? Look at (Bud Light). People are always willing to pay a little money to have a Bunch of shitty beer poured down their throats. I prefer Quality and I'm not alone. Peace

01-29-2016, 12:22 AM	#1
cloudseeder Newbie Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 3	Oregon Legal Cannabis Market Muse (production) First I'd like to say thank you to everyone in advance. I appreciate all perspectives and views. For the past several years cannabis production in Oregon has largely been in the hands of individuals (pseudo small businesses), most of which operated without regulation, or without paying taxes. With legalization and associated regulation and taxation it's probable that many of those small businesses will fail. Replaced by big companies run by people who already have an economic advantage in society. Now that cannabis is legal in Oregon how will production change, or will it? Just a little background. With a government issued license it's now legal to grow up to 10k sq. ft. indoor or 40k sq. ft. outdoor. There is no current restriction on the number of licenses the state will issue. Oregon offers licensees full vertical integration (producer, processor and retail). Southern Oregon offers an excellent climate for outdoor grown cannabis. Indoor vs. Outdoor --------------------- Which form of production do you think will succeed? Indoor, outdoor or hybrid? This should be fun. The issue seems to come down to quality vs. cost of production. One side says you can't grow great cannabis outdoors. The other side says the indoor guys are energy sucking pigs that need to be replaced with more sustainable growing practices. The perceived, or real, quality differences between indoor and outdoor grown cannabis debate dates back to some of my earliest issues of High Times (the 70's). Some say the market will demand pampered indoor and that outdoor will disappear, or be used for oil. Others are of the opinion that pure economics will win and outdoor will push indoor out of the market. Can quality craft cannabis be grown outdoors? Not in a high tech DLI augmented greenhouse. As soon as you add supplemental lighting to a greenhouse you are considered an indoor grower and limited to 10k sq. ft. Oregon Cannabis Market ---------------------------- Oregon is a small market. Estimates are around 1.37 millions ounces annual. That number was based on an average use formula that has proven to be inaccurate (low). It turns out that heavy smokers account for significantly more (70%) of the over-all consumption. CO missed consumption estimates by 30 to 110%. Even so, if we add another 50% for high use consumers annual demand is still just around 2 million ounces. Current Estimated OR Medical Cannabis Production --------------------------------------------------------- Given the number of registered patients and grow sites in the current medical marijuana program I estimate those growers currently exceed the demands of the entire state by 3 to 4 times. Even as patients migrate to the legal market the grey market will persist for many years. Some estimates state that the grey market will still command 60% of their current black market in 3 years. Even though many medical growers will go out of business, many will make the transition to the legal market or go underground. But even if all of them went out of business it wouldn't take many legal grow ops to supply the demand of all of OR, tourists and commuters. Depending on the ratio of indoor to outdoor, it's estimated to be 80/20 now, it won't take that many 1 acre farms or 10k indoor grow ops to supply the expected demand. Consumers ------------- What are consumers buying now? I surveyed the local retail cannabis shops in Portland last weekend and found shops selling both indoor and outdoor. Only one shop advertised "sun grown", the others were nice enough to help in my research but told me they don't market the product as indoor or outdoor. An informal survey indicates consumers are currently "buying the numbers". They buy based on cost (lowest) or THC/CBD (highest). After studying and pondering these questions, and many more, over the last year I thought I ask what the world thinks. Which producer do you think will be most successful, indoor, outdoor or both? Will Oregon end up with a micro craft cannabis market, like our awesome micro craft beer market? Or, like is happening in CO will the small producers be pushed out of the market? New legislation was introduced last week that would allow medical patients to contract with recreational growers. Reading between the lines, that allows existing medical growers an easy transition to the legal market. But how many of these players will remain in a highly regulated market 3 years from now? I look forward to hearing your views.
	Quote 3 members found this post helpful.

01-30-2016, 08:05 PM	#3
olekingkole Member Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 108	80% outdoor to 20% indoor? I think you had it right the first time. My guess is most of the outdoor crop won't be sold as flowers, with the exception of what is grown in shutter houses. Outdoor growers face several obstacles, in particular, uncertain weather and low UVB levels during harvest. Earlier flowering varieties are generally less desirable than later flowering ones- to put it bluntly, it's Early Girl vs. OG Kush and its pretty clear which buyers prefer. So you can't escape weather and low UVB that way.
	Quote 1 members found this post helpful.

01-30-2016, 08:11 PM	#4
stoned-trout if it smells like fish Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: bible hill estates Posts: 8,328	light dep outdoor while the weather is nice and the sun is strong....yeehaw __________________ SML..iff mi spellin and centances suk and yoo don't lyke itt too fukkin bad;/?.....I once was asked what I would say upon getting to the gates of heaven??? m/r is a visitors badge an option??? I would like a few drinks at the bar... YEEHAW....vote for real legalization not sum bullshit...free the weed or kiss my ass...you wont be getting my tax money..
	Quote 1 members found this post helpful.

02-01-2016, 01:20 AM	#6
stoned-trout if it smells like fish Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: bible hill estates Posts: 8,328	theres more than 1 way to skin a cat....yeehaw __________________ SML..iff mi spellin and centances suk and yoo don't lyke itt too fukkin bad;/?.....I once was asked what I would say upon getting to the gates of heaven??? m/r is a visitors badge an option??? I would like a few drinks at the bar... YEEHAW....vote for real legalization not sum bullshit...free the weed or kiss my ass...you wont be getting my tax money..
	Quote

02-02-2016, 03:04 AM	#7
olekingkole Member Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 108	730 nm bulbs? autoflowers in heated beds? Last edited by olekingkole; 02-02-2016 at 03:20 AM..
	Quote

01-29-2016, 01:30 AM	#2
cloudseeder Newbie Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 3	Correction. Production is estimated to be 80% outdoor to 20% indoor. I reversed them in the above post.
	Quote

01-30-2016, 11:28 PM	#5
olekingkole Member Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 108	Pulling tarps over 40k sq. ft twice a day? Better call in the Marines.
	Quote

02-04-2016, 04:43 AM	#8
Obsidian Member Join Date: Aug 2012 Location: ॐ ॐ ॐ ॐ ॐ ॐ ॐ Posts: 496	The City of Portland really does not reflect the whole Oregon Cannabis market, that city is it's own Hell. Once one leave Portland, the whole game changes. __________________ Legerdemain Artist
	Quote 1 members found this post helpful.

02-07-2016, 05:56 AM	#10
farmerlion IC Mag Supporter Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: BADLANDS Posts: 1,662	I am a dedicated sativa indoor grower. Well 75% to 100% sativa genetics is what I work with anyway. I'm looking at Oregon as a potential place to move to and grow legally. I have spent the last seven years just working out light schedules and climates for my environment. I don't clone at all, everything is from seed. (not the norm I know). I feel there is always a market for the highest of quality(cars, boats, whiskey, ect). This market remains unchanged through economic adversities. I'm making a trip out this summer to prospect a small place tucked away from society. To answer who wins out? Look at (Bud Light). People are always willing to pay a little money to have a Bunch of shitty beer poured down their throats. I prefer Quality and I'm not alone. Peace
	Quote