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Old 01-09-2016, 10:17 AM #21
MisterBlah
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-what is usual payback time, as in how long does each mill take to receive back in profit?
There isn't a "usual" per se. There's too much variation in construction cost and plant yield to give a reasonable average.
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-maybe there is a simple count of light per pricing, but looking to see what is usual cost per lamp for the building construction, from my view point the highest asset is the building laying out correctly
I've heard numbers ranging from $150-200/ sq ft for a indoor grow. 50-70% of that area canopy space.

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-whats you point of view for state that has the best place to set down roots?
Colorado has the "easiest" process. But the toughest market.


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-the competitors, what is the usual competitor? huge investors, or small guys trying to make it big time?
Both. The biggest competitors will be the huge investors though.

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-what is the usual layout of big investors, how many millions do they usual invest?
$10s of millions for a single facility.

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-has anyone looked into the future to see when flooding the market happens, and what will happen to all the businesses?
Most businesses can't handle the price halving, so it will be interesting to see what 2016 brings.

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-thoughts off the top of the head how many lights 2.5 million is gonna do? I was thinking 200 as the building is going to be the main costs with plumbing, electrical, HVAC, and such.. and when I say this not some cheap shit put together ram shackle, something that would be featured in forbes for " professional operation" sorta build,,
200 is actually a reasonable estimate, believe it or not.
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Old 01-09-2016, 11:22 AM #22
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My question is why? Why do you want to jump from closet to mega-huge? You will be competing with other large operations that already have a head start and probably more funds. And you will be at the mercy of some government or other. I think the basic idea is flawed. Start with a single warehouse, and work it for a year or two, and grow/enlarge from there, figuring it out as you go along. Experience is the best teacher. Don't try to re-invent the wheel on a grand scale. Too many folks are already ahead of you. Consultants are a dime a dozen. Get your knowledge from actual operating experience.
My 2 cents...good luck.
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Old 01-09-2016, 12:39 PM #23
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When Canada was bidding out their entire medical market, iirc the winning bid came in at like 12 or 15 bucks per ounce of indoor.

So eventually, I imagine in order to compete in the bulk market you will need to be able to compete with prices similar to that. Might take a while, but will probably get there.

Other precaution, the politics, local, state, and federal are still shifting extremely fast. I think being somewhat liquid, mobile and diverse is important. If you sink a huge investment into 1 area, then the local, state, or federals laws shift and shut you down. You might own one really fancy empty warehouse. A lot of guys that post here from Nor Cal, have brand new empty green houses sitting around because of local politics. Noticed even some of the more friendly counties in Oregon are starting to sway in that direction to.

Good luck,
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Old 01-09-2016, 06:50 PM #24
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thanks guys for the info.. much appreciated..

to clear the air I'm not a closet grower for say.. I've run outdoor and have run multiple rooms.. I'm saying closet grower in comparison to a huge fat warehouse..

I'm also in the seed game, so I know all about dedication, hard work, growing, processes....

I laugh as some of you are throwing out comments not knowing how much I do know.. I have done self studies of nutrients for years, growing in multiple conditions, and all sorts of setups changing each grow as I like to expand my learning.. how many of you know what a par meter is? I own a li-cor, how many of you own a precision pH / EC meter? I own a 1k hach.... I'm gonna stop there because I sound arrogant but I'm not, I'm pretty laid back, but but I push myself everyday to learn, I just have never ran commercial as I was not willing to go to jail and deal with risky setups with partners involving huge amounts of money, and I took a different turn with seed company..

as stated, the plan is to run controllers, with that I could maintain a 500 light room faster then you can hand water a 4x4 tent.. see people don't understand as I know, as I've run around 300 plants to some points, scaling is very easy.. the hard part comes after harvest and cleanup, but scaling is super easy as mixing one gallon of water is essentially the same as mixing a hundred gallon drum as you still have to mix nutes... if your dropping 5ml or 500ml it's all the same as the measurement tool is just larger..

I've turned a whole house and it's backyard into a grow operation, so I know what I'm doing and that was by myself.. with automated controllers and a crew, it's very easily doable to me.. I just need expertise with site management and layout and laws and returns to know if to proceed forward
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Old 01-09-2016, 06:56 PM #25
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First things first, where are you trying to set up shop? No one can give you a good answer without a location first--every state's market is unique.

Quote:
Originally Posted by habeeb
how long does each mill take to receive back in profit?
"Profit" is something that will not be obtained by most people entering into this market (look at what's happening to producers in WA right now). When $3 million is competing with $40 million, the latter suppresses prices until the former is out of business--(1) because they can and (2) because oligopolic markets produce more profit for big firms. You'd be better off sinking that money into greenhouses and land leasing instead of indoor lighting systems and HVAC (but again, that's location dependent). Warehouse growing is a relic of the 20th century prohibition mentality and a sure way to lose money in the long run in places like Oregon or California; if you can't synergistically combine technology with nature's rhythm, you'll never be able to compete with glass house production.
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Old 01-09-2016, 07:15 PM #26
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My question is why? Why do you want to jump from closet to mega-huge? You will be competing with other large operations that already have a head start and probably more funds. And you will be at the mercy of some government or other. I think the basic idea is flawed. Start with a single warehouse, and work it for a year or two, and grow/enlarge from there, figuring it out as you go along. Experience is the best teacher. Don't try to re-invent the wheel on a grand scale. Too many folks are already ahead of you. Consultants are a dime a dozen. Get your knowledge from actual operating experience.
My 2 cents...good luck.
Why does anyone ever want to start their own business? Who cares who you are competing with?
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Old 01-09-2016, 07:20 PM #27
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First things first, where are you trying to set up shop? No one can give you a good answer without a location first--every state's market is unique.
This is a very good point.

In Colorado, for example, where I live, if you want a license, you need to have been a resident for 24 months. If you haven't, you need to know someone who has that will work with you.
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Old 01-09-2016, 07:31 PM #28
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Heard dude on Hash Church mention a 50 acre greenhouse almost done outside of Denver.

Regular produce farmers are growing crops under tens and hundreds of covered acres, cannabis will be too.
My plan is for $700K initial infrastructure costs to produce 2.5 tones in 90 days of summer sun with about $250K operating costs. I'd go bigger if I can round up the funds. Id rather only work 6 months out of the year on one crop as opposed to multicropping.
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Old 01-09-2016, 07:38 PM #29
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I know your enamored with this consultant being able to solve your problems but in reality they are just taking your money. Ask them if they want to invest in your operation and see what they say. Also if they are giving horticulture advice ask if they have any sort of science or horticulture degree, because you are probably going to pay them top dollar right? I bet whatever advice they give they have no official education in that field. Without that degree its the blind leading the blind.
Basically what I hear is "I have 2.5 million dollars of investor money to burn and have no plan. Can you help?" Weird gave some great advice, but he kind of hinted to read between the lines "buy the warehouse" i.e reduce risk
Someone comes to these forums about every 2-3 months with the same exact plan and we sort of shit on their dreams by showing the reality (which never goes well because they don't want to hear what you have to say). Good luck! I'm tired of being that guy. If you believe in yourself and investors do too then best of luck.
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Old 01-09-2016, 08:07 PM #30
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Heard dude on Hash Church mention a 50 acre greenhouse almost done outside of Denver.

Regular produce farmers are growing crops under tens and hundreds of covered acres, cannabis will be too.
My plan is for $700K initial infrastructure costs to produce 2.5 tones in 90 days of summer sun with about $250K operating costs. I'd go bigger if I can round up the funds. Id rather only work 6 months out of the year on one crop as opposed to multicropping.
Ya know, I've made suggestions to people who have only ever grown indoors to do it in a greenhouse and to do a single crop per year. They think I'm nuts for even considering it.
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