[SirStynkalot]

It's probably a good guess that your competition is going to get overextended if they're trying to build a 5,000 light grow from scratch. I seriously doubt you'll have an easier time with 500 lights though, especially when you don't have a grower on your team yet.

I'm just not sure how you think you're going to beat the market. Everything you've said puts you at just as much risk as them since the "intangibles" you reference are the ones you can't control either. Any large scale pot business is going to be pissing cash and I'd imagine 1 million in the hole doesn't look much different from 20 million in the hole when you have no way to bring money back in.

How exactly do you plan on dealing with this? Are you going to grow specifically for concentrates from the beginning? Spend three times as much per square foot as your competition on the build in and hope throwing money at the inevitable problems fixes them? What are your thoughts?

This is why you need a grower. What you're saying is common sense to growers. We understand how markets work. This is our job. What's absolutely needed by any operation to stay afloat is a high quality product. The stick-and-seed market's insanely competitive for a relatively small and shrinking market share. You're telling us that you don't think your competition can make large quantities of a high quality product, but you yourself don't know how to either. Makes us a bit edgy.

That's what bobthegrower was saying. You've got the cash up to make a project but aren't equipped to do ANY of the work. As best I can tell, you've covered all the bases you'd need if you were going to open up a payday loan store - receptionists, accountants, cash flow, premises. You haven't even started building a marijuana specific business. If you want someone to COMPLETELY BUILD AND RUN your business for you from the ground up, you're going to probably have to offer them a significant cut of the profits. If I were you guys I'd feel pretty lucky to get away with giving them a third of your company to do what you need. I've heard of growers taking away much more... because let's face it, the only thing you have to offer them is risk. If they're good enough to do what you want then all you're offering them is an iffy sideways step on the career ladder, not a step up. I personally turned down admission to a couple top tier US law schools to work on my project. That's the sort of career option available to people with the skills and abilities you need.

[rongillispei]

Hey, you're right, we still have a lot of holes to plug, but the great news is I've just this weekend began discussions with an established grower who has been at it for years under the old program. It solved a lot of the largest problems as the gentleman is well versed in growing, already has the facility....still requiring some retrofitting to meet HC standards....but he's already created a 12 strain library and at current full capacity, is able to produce up 40lbs per week....

So an attempt is likely to occur whereby a JV or partnership will be setup to hasten the application now and his experience both product wise and financially are going to bring this project to eventual fruition!!!!!

As mom says, good things come to those who wait.....or so the hope is!!!!! there's still lots to work on and certainly learn, but with this development, I'm much more confident in the team we'll have put together......

[smilley]

Hello rongillispei. I should start by disclosing I am invested in Calyx Bio-Ventures (a soon to be committed player in the MMSP industry). I believe you're gonna have a hard time getting a permit with no related experience and if you get on, you'll have a tough time keeping up with the publicly traded companies now entering this space. Tweed Marijuanna Inc. has a market cap of $118 million. How are you going to compete with that?

The other item to consider is pricing. I see the current listed prices being $6 - 9/g. Who can afford these prices? Many licensed user have presriptions from 10 - 20g a day. Do the new producers really believe these people all consume at their prescription rate and can they afford to pay for it? I produce my own for about $1/g and I'm sure not going to pay 6 - 9 times that price just to be legal. The black market will still control this industry......

[leaffan]

good luck

[rongillispei]

Yes all these factors have been taking into account, our strategy is start in a reasonable facility that's equipped to be scaled as the market demands. My view is that the Tweed's will co-exist with smaller players as this infant industry starts. This will create the necessary market forces to work out what the true realistic market price will be.

Once the market has been somewhat established 3 - 5 years.....there will then be the consolidation phase.....

Also, what's going to be the cash burn rate for the SUPER Grows seeing as the potential customer market is substantially smaller now with the injunction.

Where my lack of experience comment comes from, I'm not sure. I have a very successful career in commercial banking, manufacturing and now working as a business consultant focused on start ups, business plans and growth strategy.....yes, all finance related positions, but none the less, I have the business acumen that's absolutely going to be as strategically important as the production side....

Look at the big players, what real world growing experience have they??? Phd's coming out the arse....but in agriculture and other specialty "research".....which has been discussed at length.....bear a lot of additional risk as they learn how to grow and the many factors that help and hurt the end product.....our approach of teaming with an already successful grower under the old program reduces our operational risk substantially....so I think our chances will be strong

[SirStynkalot]

Sounds like you're well on track then! Good luck! I also think there's a place in the market for "microbreweries." A huge chunk of this consumer base has higher quality standards than any other comparable industry. And you're absolutely right - you have to prove your concept first in a big new game like this.

How much bigger companies spend per month varies based on where they are and what they're doing, but the lighting alone for a grow as big as what you're talking about would easily be six figures per month. If you want to know that then figure their square footage, do the standard watt square foot amounts for veg and flower, and multiply each number by 12 and 18 hours per day respectively. Double that for HVAC and mechanical, then multiply that by their power company's rates (published online). You won't get it exactly right since you don't know what options they're taking with their power or how they rigged their HVAC but you'll get a very rough ballpark.

There are similar equations available online for each other aspect of their growing, processing, and overhead costs. The more you know about their business, the more exactly you'll be able to guesstimate their costs. If you want to research your competition you'll either need your grower's help or you'll want to memorize this whole forum starting with the "grow room and design" subforum.

Sounds like Tweeds has more money than God and that's about what they're going to need if their first few crops don't come off right.

[Mikell]

Too bad Tweed is sitting on a peat and perlite basement troll of a grower.

A huge chunk of this consumer base has higher quality standards than any other comparable industry.

Let me introduce you to my old friend, Wine.

[Sam_Skunkman]

I read all the posts, I wish you luck.
That said you really need to find a grower/farmer that has real farming experience, with tomatoes, hops, fruit or veggies, crops with small margins, as well as Cannabis on a large level, I suspect there are not so many that will fill your needs. A soil person would be nice, and an expert in plant viruses and bacteria as well as other pathogens like PM and Botrytris, someone that has experience using Bio-controls like beneficial insects, with Cannabis. As well as a quality control expert. That and decide what are you going to do about varieties you will grow, buy seeds that others developed?, ask others for clones that were bred by others?, set up a breeding program (another person) to develop your own? You need advice to make a wise decision. As for growing I hope you are thinking greenhouse instead of indoors under lights, production costs for indoors under lights Cannabis is considerably higher then in a greenhosue with supplemental lighting only when needed. It will be the costs and profit margins that shake the first out of the trade.
Also with only 37,000 medical users the Canadian market is limited, what kind of production will fill the needs of say even 50,000 in the near future? I know that 100,000 kilos or 100 metric tonnes can be produced yearly in a greenhouse that is 100,000 sq meters so divide that by the number of Canadian producers LP's and you can see there might be more Cannabis available then can be sold. Canadian LP's are talking about also supplying the USA, Holland, Uruguay, Isreal, elsewhere, but that may or most likely will not happen as all these countries all have their own plans for Cannabis self sufficiency, and most want to sell to the Cannadians and world also.
I am an old guy with little interest in working, I could probably do it but I do not want to work, I am pretty much retired. I did it in the past, help set up several Cannabis businesses growing procedures, UK Pharmaceuticals included, I even found them their greenhouses.
You can hire consultants for some of the work you need advice on, they might help.
I have worked most of my adult life to bring Cannabis back in to the mainstream, medical as well as other uses. I am glad to see the change....
Anyway good luck, you will need it.
-SamS

Originally Posted by rongillispei

Yes all these factors have been taking into account, our strategy is start in a reasonable facility that's equipped to be scaled as the market demands. My view is that the Tweed's will co-exist with smaller players as this infant industry starts. This will create the necessary market forces to work out what the true realistic market price will be.

Once the market has been somewhat established 3 - 5 years.....there will then be the consolidation phase.....

Also, what's going to be the cash burn rate for the SUPER Grows seeing as the potential customer market is substantially smaller now with the injunction.

Where my lack of experience comment comes from, I'm not sure. I have a very successful career in commercial banking, manufacturing and now working as a business consultant focused on start ups, business plans and growth strategy.....yes, all finance related positions, but none the less, I have the business acumen that's absolutely going to be as strategically important as the production side....

Look at the big players, what real world growing experience have they??? Phd's coming out the arse....but in agriculture and other specialty "research".....which has been discussed at length.....bear a lot of additional risk as they learn how to grow and the many factors that help and hurt the end product.....our approach of teaming with an already successful grower under the old program reduces our operational risk substantially....so I think our chances will be strong

[Agracan]

I second and third the good luck part. Looks like you have ton of work ahead of you. You have to realize that you need to help yourself before anyone will help you. Especially in the ultracompetitive space (some 700 companies have applied). I'll impart this on you though...With QA careful with outsourcing it...a lot of apps got burned by this.

[Agracan]

Originally Posted by SirStynkalot

Sounds like Tweeds has more money than God and that's about what they're going to need if their first few crops don't come off right.

+1