[Bababooey]

Was it a bad sign that 90%+ of the people who showed up at the townhall meetings seemed to be business people interested in opening a dispensary or cultivation center, and less than 10% (more like 2-3% probably) were actual patients? This is based off the speaker questions. Out of 50+ people who asked questions, like 3 were actual patients.

Are there going to be a whole bunch of fisherman and not enough fish?

IL doesn't allow 'chronic or severe pain' by itself to be a qualifying condition.
AZ allows pain by itself to be a qualifying condition, and their market is supposedly strong, 50,000 patients and a market size of 135 million gross sales this year. This is according to az marijuana . com, so take those figures well salted.
That same article noted that 70% of patients are taking it for 'chronic pain' and the majority are male.
Also, naturopathic doctors (ND's), not just medical doctors and OD's, can prescribe it in AZ. IL as well as most states dont recognize naturopathic doctors.
Sounds like AZ has an almost Cali mmj situation going on, where you don't need hard proof of a significant disease to get a recommendation and you'll find plenty of doctors to recommend it for you for 100-150 dollars.

I don't think IL will be that lenient with recommendations. I think it will be more than NJ, because IL doctors dont have to register with the state (and have their name in a publicly accessible database) before they can recommend mmj. Also, IL rules state that veterans whose primary care physician is a VA doctor can just send in their medical records proving they have a qualifying condition, they don't need a physician to recommend it (because VA doctors, being federal employees, cannabis being illegal under federal law, blah blah).
So the VA patients will have less hassle to get recommendations, but how many of them have one of the qualifying conditions and want access to medical cannabis? One thousand throughout the state? Two thousand? Five thousand? Who knows?

It's interesting, that everyone's rushing into a medical market where no one really knows how many patients there will be. The consultants will say there will be tens of thousands, but they have every incentive to make this seem like a gold mine to justify their fees.

[Julian]

And all of the above is merely scratching the surface....

I would agree for the most part about the consultants comment, but would hope my clients would disagree....as I have pointed out every one of the above, with several dozen other aspects which may or may not come into play.

I think at this point the true gauge will be the current registration and numbers to follow, which we will know shortly.

I also believe that people are overlooking how many things may change, and that the point of any state is to get the initial program through....and that many changes inevitably follow, and, I think this is what many informed (and wise) applicants see and understand....

I do think though many are in for quite a few surprises...

Personally, I can't even begin to count how many I have advised against Illinois...Financially, it's certainly not one of the more attractive opportunities in the industry......not even close...

[Bababooey]

The state may release app numbers next week, so we'll see what kind of pent up demand there is for mmj by patients.
The initial number (the first week) may end up being 5-10% of the overall patient base that will sign up the first year, is my guess, based on the il conceal carry applications, another brand new license this year. Remembering that M-Z still have to register beginning in Nov.

[Julian]

I was somewhat surprised to see the recent CC estimates (mine included ) but think they're actually very low compared to numerous other states with population a fraction of ours, and will still see quite an increase over the next several years, and could also be a reflection of how well informed and aware the public is, which applies in this case of course.

I think the initial numbers will be more of passing interest than a specific indication, as those initials (let's include the first rounds pre-Jan 1st) will be a dedicated group more on top of everything than the general population.

As also addressed somewhere above, everyone seems to be under the impression it is merely a patient action/decision, when in reality, I think where and how the program goes will rest more on the physicians acceptance and participation. I'm sure this will be addressed in many ways, shapes and forms, hence I dont think the initial numbers will necessarily be an accurate reflection on where the counts may be 12 months, 24 months from now, etc. (In addition to any added conditions over the same time period, any one of which could create a significant increase, such as "Chronic Pain", etc......)

It will be very interesting though to see the initial numbers.

[Bababooey]

Supposedly over 2000 applied this first week. A-L. M-Z gets to sign up starting November.
So is IL looking to have about 20k patients statewide at the end of the first year?


Friday, September 05, 2014
SPRINGFIELD, Ill. --
More than 2,000 people have applied for ID cards allowing them to use medical marijuana since the application process began this week.

That's more than expected.

Bob Morgan is project coordinator for the state's Medical Cannabis Pilot Program. He said Friday that officials anticipated a few hundred patients and caregivers would begin registering in the first few days.

Authorities began accepting applications Tuesday from patients whose last names start with letters A through L. They have until Oct. 31 to apply. Patients whose last names start with the letters M - Z can apply starting Nov. 1. They have until Dec. 1 to apply.

Morgan calls the numbers "a promising sign that the program is on track to fulfill its key purpose - alleviating the pain and suffering for thousands of Illinoisans."

Lawmakers adopted the medical marijuana law in 2013. Patients must have a written certification from a doctor and get a background check.

[Bababooey]

Although, to be sure, that 2000 figure includes patients and caregivers, not just patients.

[Julian]

And of course who knows how many more are in the mail, the rest of the alphabet to get to, and, patients as they become more informed, as well as physicians.....

Scanning through the above, it's safe to say "a few hundred" was of course a ridiculously low estimate, even if it was dead of winter in Alaska .....

Quite an interesting figure and curious what future figures will hold (curious as well and hope they have district/regional breakdowns and numbers...)

[Bababooey]

A district or regional breakdown would be much appreciated and useful for people applying for dispensaries and cc's.

According to the concealed carry app numbers for IL, about 23000 applied during the first week of applications (about half of those signed up early, even before January) and as of august, there were about 83000 total applications. So by that first week, you had about 28% of the first nine months of applications filed.

Applying that math to mmj numbers, you could expect 7100 A-L patient/caregiver apps in the first 9 months of applications being accepted. Double that for M-Z (not sure if M-Z is the same size group as the A-L folks, could be smaller or bigger) and you could expect 14000 patient/caregiver apps in the first 9 months.

This is assuming the pent up demand, the early appliers, is between 1/4 and 1/3 of the total market in the first 9 months. For mmj patients, it could be more, it might be less, you could make arguments for either but we have to wait to see what happens.

Since the patients are the only ones using the medicine (in theory), what's the ratio of patients to caregivers? 2-1 or 3-1 or 5-1?
That breakdown would be appreciated as well.

[Bababooey]

All applications are due Monday!
Hurry up, all you slowpokes.
Remember, organize as a non profit and you might have a greater chance to be approved.

[Bababooey]

Two more days!
Start tearing your hair out.
Remember, there is no such thing as too much groveling when it comes to winning zoning approval.