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Old 01-19-2011, 07:34 PM #11
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the only real reason to stay away from apple stock right now, considering to upcoming releases and how many industries have now jumped on the ipad bandwagon .... is if you think SJ is going to die soon. His death will drop stock value due to his perceived value to the company. Barring that Apple still has a good value growth coming in the next couple quarters.
Obviously I could be wrong but 380 is a very realistic number for them by the end of summer as long as SJ is alive.
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Old 01-19-2011, 11:26 PM #12
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the only real reason to stay away from apple stock right now, considering to upcoming releases and how many industries have now jumped on the ipad bandwagon .... is if you think SJ is going to die soon. His death will drop stock value due to his perceived value to the company. Barring that Apple still has a good value growth coming in the next couple quarters.
Obviously I could be wrong but 380 is a very realistic number for them by the end of summer as long as SJ is alive.
Forget about Steve Jobs whether he comes back or not at this point. The reason to stay away from Apple right now is it has topped. Yesterday was ugly with a down day on huge volume and forget the fact it made a strong comeback off the lows. Today confirmed things with a big down day on huge volume reversing from a gap open...bad...sellers were just dumping shares into that 'strength'. Yeah things look good for AAPL in the coming months but you also gotta separate the stock from the company...two different things. Go ahead and buy AAPL now and get run over by a train. Watch how it responds to it's 50 day moving average...cause it's going down there at the least.

I was watching AAPL to look for a market top and it's here. The NASDAQ was down significantly on increased volume...that's especially bad considering AAPL's leading action.

You gotta read the technicals as they tell the story of what institutions are doing and they are selling hard and fast. If anything AAPL is a short especially if it gets back up to it's recent highs which I highly doubt.

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U.S. stocks are within a week of “a significant market top” that is likely to precede a drop of at least 11 percent in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, said Tom DeMark, creator of a set of market-timing indicators.
As I said earlier it was probably just around the corner. Stocks did not look good Tuesday and today confirmed it for me. The correction is underway and honestly was expecting it by the end of the week.
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Old 01-20-2011, 09:58 AM #13
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Originally Posted by SpasticGramps View Post
Stocks in U.S. Are Within a Week of `Significant Market Top,' DeMark Says Bloomberg


The fact that it's getting overbought and due for a correction seems to be the consensus. I don't know though. As long as the FED is pumping liquidity into the market I think it may continue to meltup. The big event this year, IMO, will be mid year (June I think it is) when QE2 ends. I reckon we'll see some volatility as we approach that point and assurance from the FED that QE3 will be put into place until we are in a sustainable recovery. Which isn't coming until they stop printing money and let natural market forces run their course. That's another issue though.

I think it's going to keep going up until people loose faith in our fiscal and monetary policy. Maybe a slight correction here and there until it rolls off the cliff.
and maybe they'll try & find some other sectors to run back up because of the "recovery"...but even with many business reporting "earnings" again, drop in commodities prices & money on the books plus the fed pumping ...divising/squeezing out new money streams from the consumer ( all checking deposits @ BofA will carry a charge now ) ...to be able to call it a recovery, they better have less than 10% unemployment to prove it .

RSI & MacD hitting overbought big time on the $COMPX ,
they waited for AAPL to report the new headline poster
child of the recovery
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CO...d=p37293464903

pretty bubble
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Old 01-20-2011, 03:59 PM #14
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Forget about Steve Jobs whether he comes back or not at this point. The reason to stay away from Apple right now is it has topped. Yesterday was ugly with a down day on huge volume and forget the fact it made a strong comeback off the lows. Today confirmed things with a big down day on huge volume reversing from a gap open...bad...sellers were just dumping shares into that 'strength'. Yeah things look good for AAPL in the coming months but you also gotta separate the stock from the company...two different things. Go ahead and buy AAPL now and get run over by a train. Watch how it responds to it's 50 day moving average...cause it's going down there at the least.

I was watching AAPL to look for a market top and it's here. The NASDAQ was down significantly on increased volume...that's especially bad considering AAPL's leading action.

You gotta read the technicals as they tell the story of what institutions are doing and they are selling hard and fast. If anything AAPL is a short especially if it gets back up to it's recent highs which I highly doubt.

As I said earlier it was probably just around the corner. Stocks did not look good Tuesday and today confirmed it for me. The correction is underway and honestly was expecting it by the end of the week.
IMO
The whole reason it had the drop was SJ's med leave announcement. 9% international drop on MLK day and the early morning drop when our market opened the next day. There is a huge public belief of attached value of that particular CEO to that particular company ....fact. In this particular case, To separate the company from it's stock and stock reactions is to not understand the public perception of this company. Like I said before... look at the stock fluctuation history of the last 2 times SJ went on med leave. It's the same pattern. no big surprises here.
Announcement made.... short sited conservative investors "fear sell"... stocks drops .... people see apple going down but realize what is coming for them in the next couple of months, they see it as an opportunity to get in on apple a little cheaper .... rebound numbers. ... then fluctuates in a repeating manner for a week or 2....

time will tell ... lets watch .... I still say 380 by the end of summer is doable for them as long as SJ alive still and more so likely if he is back by then.

on another apple note, I finally got my hands on a functioning iPad2 prototype. The shift they made to the new processor chips makes a big difference in power and speed. It's a sweet piece of equipment now. The dual cameras and sd card slot should have been there on initial release. They are going to get a lot of repeat buyers with these vital upgrades.
also ... watch for their new media server/search engine announcement in the next couple of months ... why do you think they bought all that land in Georgia and built that huge server complex? ... they are making a bid on Google's search & youtube territory in the next few month. Should make for a fun ride
let's watch.
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Old 01-20-2011, 11:23 PM #15
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to be able to call it a recovery, they better have less than 10% unemployment to prove it.
Yeah well the Fed, I believe it was them, came out and said they do not see unemployment 'normalizing' until about 3-4 years down the road.

Quote:
The whole reason it had the drop was SJ's med leave announcement. 9% international drop on MLK day and the early morning drop when our market opened the next day.
Well unfortunately that statement just shows your ignorance when it comes to stocks. I'll say that the SJ issue exacerbated the situation and for good reason. I took a quick look at a few other leading stocks such as BCSI, RVBD and RAX and yesterday they dropped a bit but today all 3 gapped down, went thru their 50 day SMA AND on huge volume...all very bad and as I said the market is correcting and today's action confirmed it. The NASDAQ had another down day on increased volume...a distribution day. With the general market deteriorating, and fast, it confirms my general statements that AAPL has topped and due mainly to general market conditions but yes SJ's departure made it worse.

As for what AAPL will be at later this year...I stopped the guessing game with future prices and just pay attention to the price and volume action for leading stocks and the general market and don't get personally attached to any belief or concept regarding any stock. It's gonna be awhile before AAPL presents another buying opportunity IMO...another down day on large volume...everyone is running for the exits...as they are in other stocks.

Now is the time to watch those stocks that hold up best during the correction as they will typically be the best performers when the market recovers...and when that will be I'm not going to venture a guess...will just watch and wait.
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Old 01-20-2011, 11:26 PM #16
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I like this thread. good stuff.
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Old 01-20-2011, 11:31 PM #17
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Originally Posted by Mountain View Post
Yeah well the Fed, I believe it was them, came out and said they do not see unemployment 'normalizing' until about 3-4 years down the road.

Well unfortunately that statement just shows your ignorance when it comes to stocks. I'll say that the SJ issue exacerbated the situation and for good reason. I took a quick look at a few other leading stocks such as BCSI, RVBD and RAX and yesterday they dropped a bit but today all 3 gapped down, went thru their 50 day SMA AND on huge volume...all very bad and as I said the market is correcting and today's action confirmed it. The NASDAQ had another down day on increased volume...a distribution day. With the general market deteriorating, and fast, it confirms my general statements that AAPL has topped and due mainly to general market conditions but yes SJ's departure made it worse.

As for what AAPL will be at later this year...I stopped the guessing game with future prices and just pay attention to the price and volume action for leading stocks and the general market and don't get personally attached to any belief or concept regarding any stock. It's gonna be awhile before AAPL presents another buying opportunity IMO...another down day on large volume...everyone is running for the exits...as they are in other stocks.

Now is the time to watch those stocks that hold up best during the correction as they will typically be the best performers when the market recovers...and when that will be I'm not going to venture a guess...will just watch and wait.

Markets down on high volume, individual investors are dumping stocks and pulling their money and investment banks are trying to hedge in the under invested which is nothing really. The market has been climbing for no real reason other than that people kept trusting it was going to push higher. Now it looks like we may be seeing a long down road ahead. Not sure how you pick winners other than the "selling the news" approach as discussed earlier. I actually think the next few weeks should be prime time shorting on the news.
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Old 01-21-2011, 12:19 AM #18
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Apple - with the dip after Jobs taking med leave again ... look at the stock history when he left and returned both times..... combined with the iPad2 release in April and iPhone5 release in July. Apple should be around $380 by the end of summer as long as SJ doesn't die from whatever is ailing him now.
Played Apple long many times , but anytime i see these kind of set-ups in the short term where the RSI 14 indicator (top of chart) is nearing the 90 value & the stock has been trending so far above the 50 & 200 simple moving averages ...have to be keen & look for a shorting set-up .

Here $350 was too much of a temptation for traders to lock in profits , more of a psychological thing & $350 a "nice round number" of sorts . No matter how rosey the picture is the stock was overbought & the holiday season is over . Key here is holding bove the blue 50 simple moving average & bouncing off the 50rsi where its sitting now .

was a good short setup , but not good for shorts in around $300,
looks to hold that $320 area

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Old 01-21-2011, 12:30 AM #19
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Originally Posted by zenoonez View Post
Markets down on high volume, individual investors are dumping stocks and pulling their money and investment banks are trying to hedge in the under invested which is nothing really. The market has been climbing for no real reason other than that people kept trusting it was going to push higher. Now it looks like we may be seeing a long down road ahead. Not sure how you pick winners other than the "selling the news" approach as discussed earlier. I actually think the next few weeks should be prime time shorting on the news.
Note that RSI indicator ontop of the chart that trended up into the blue shaded area nearing a 90 value which indicates extremely overbought conditions . It goes ffrom 90 to 70 to 50 ...then all the way down to a 30value which is the extreme oversold territory .

RSI is one of the great indicators almost all pro traders key onto , feel free to use this chart sometimes , its a pretty one & those RSI indicators are really dead accurate in often telling you when to buy in & when to sell . Most stocks always pull back from the RSI 90 & bounce off the RSI 30 .
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CO...d=p37712746800

* The 50ma on the COMPQ is 2621 area ,for a complete retrace but what a huge/monster gain since sept off the 2100area & note where the RSI was back then .
( Then see where it bounced off RSI 50 three times in Dec off 2500 )

Again note how it sold off from that overbought RSI pont where it was hitting
1rst week of Nov . This was a trending monster up up into the New Year which
they do to pad their pockets using holiday sales as the drive:

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Old 01-21-2011, 12:58 AM #20
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Do you expect a bounce at 50 or do you expect it to go lower? I don't see any bad "sell the news" situations right now to drive it down past 50 substantially but you never know how the market will work sometimes. Oh and I am loving the tips man, keep em coming. Never used RSI, what is it and is it applied to individual stocks as it is to the exchange?
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