Originally Posted by Mountain
Forget about Steve Jobs whether he comes back or not at this point. The reason to stay away from Apple right now is it has topped. Yesterday was ugly with a down day on huge volume and forget the fact it made a strong comeback off the lows. Today confirmed things with a big down day on huge volume reversing from a gap open...bad...sellers were just dumping shares into that 'strength'. Yeah things look good for AAPL in the coming months but you also gotta separate the stock from the company...two different things. Go ahead and buy AAPL now and get run over by a train. Watch how it responds to it's 50 day moving average...cause it's going down there at the least.
I was watching AAPL to look for a market top and it's here. The NASDAQ was down significantly on increased volume...that's especially bad considering AAPL's leading action.
You gotta read the technicals as they tell the story of what institutions are doing and they are selling hard and fast. If anything AAPL is a short especially if it gets back up to it's recent highs which I highly doubt.
As I said earlier it was probably just around the corner. Stocks did not look good Tuesday and today confirmed it for me. The correction is underway and honestly was expecting it by the end of the week.
The whole reason it had the drop was SJ's med leave announcement. 9% international drop on MLK day and the early morning drop when our market opened the next day. There is a huge public belief of attached value of that particular CEO to that particular company ....fact. In this particular case, To separate the company from it's stock and stock reactions is to not understand the public perception of this company. Like I said before... look at the stock fluctuation history of the last 2 times SJ went on med leave. It's the same pattern. no big surprises here.
Announcement made.... short sited conservative investors "fear sell"... stocks drops .... people see apple going down but realize what is coming for them in the next couple of months, they see it as an opportunity to get in on apple a little cheaper .... rebound numbers. ... then fluctuates in a repeating manner for a week or 2....
time will tell ... lets watch .... I still say 380 by the end of summer is doable for them as long as SJ alive still and more so likely if he is back by then.
on another apple note, I finally got my hands on a functioning iPad2 prototype. The shift they made to the new processor chips makes a big difference in power and speed. It's a sweet piece of equipment now. The dual cameras and sd card slot should have been there on initial release. They are going to get a lot of repeat buyers with these vital upgrades.
also ... watch for their new media server/search engine announcement in the next couple of months ... why do you think they bought all that land in Georgia and built that huge server complex? ... they are making a bid on Google's search & youtube territory in the next few month. Should make for a fun ride