Originally Posted by grasspass
One factor I didn't read about , is that senior aged people are more likely to vote, compared to younger people.
Well, it's there! It's in my second post in the thread.
So the advancing demographics in the age graph assist us in three ways:
1) the people who have the least experience with marijuana -- and are the most opposed to it right now - seniors - are dying. Their opposition to legalization of marijuana ends;
2) dying seniors are in turn replaced by aging baby boomers, starting in two years time as they turn 65. Those people have experienced marijuana in far greater numbers in their youth (you know Woodstock - the 60s?) and are as a group far more supportive of legalization. They are also, as seniors, the demographic that is most likely to vote, so politicians pay far closer attention to them; and,
3) - the people streaming IN to that line who are now in the early and mid-teens are also trying marijuana in significantly large numbers.
Interestingly, the gender divide in a conglomeration of recent polling results in Cali is mirroring the gender gap based upon prior experience with Marijuana.
Men 54% Yes (53% with prior MJ experience)
Women 44% Yes (42% with prior MJ experience)
This would seem to suggest that the gender gap that Gallup indicates "vanished" remains real.
Of course, this does not take into account the so-called 9% undecided -- which I believe will break 2 for 1 for Yes. Most aren't undecided, they just don't want to say. It doesn't mean the same thing. Those who are inclined to keep their opinions to themselves on this matter are more likely to vote yes than no.
For the record, I do predict a Yes win in two weeks, with 53.5% voting yes.
And then the national hand wringing will begin. That hand-wringing and drug warrior blowback is a gift that keeps on giving to everyone outside of California, indeed, even those outside of the USA.
The issue will stay on the front page for YEARS to come. It's a battle that goes to those with a longterm view.
When the constitution of the State is amended, there is nobody to bargain with. It's done. This will be the subject of court challenges and more headline news for years. PERFECT.
Couldn't realistically ask for better.