babbit
Member
The drug trade is a profit-making business, one whose necessary balance of costs and rewards can be disrupted, damaged, and even destroyed. The main reason supply reduction matters to drug policy is that it makes drugs more expensive, less potent, and less available. Price, potency, and availability are significant drivers of both addicted use and casual use.The drug trade is a worldwide market, embodying the strengths of a flexible, multinational enterprise and the weaknesses of a complex, far-flung illegal network that has to launder proceeds, pay bribes, and deal with the risks of betrayal by coconspirators and violence from competitors. The agencies that implement supply control measures face a challenge: how to identify and exploit the key vulnerabilities of a business that operates in secrecy.Both abroad and at home, for the past two years the Strategy has focused on such sectors as the drug trade’s agricultural sources, its processing and transportation systems, its organizational hierarchy, and its financing mechanisms.We are now attacking the drug trade in all of its component parts, and we have made progress on all fronts.
The U.S. Government’s master list of targeted trafficking organizations is shorter this year, thanks to the elimination of eight major trafficking organizations during the past fiscal year (see box on pages 34 and 35). Another seven organizations were weakened enough to be classified as “significantly disrupted.”Interdiction forces from the Departments of Defense and Homeland Security registered impressive interdiction successes during 2003. These successes are partly the result of Operation Panama Express, an intelligence-driven program managed by the Departments of Justice and Homeland Security that targets fishing and other vessels departing from Colombia’s Pacific and Caribbean coasts.Data available as of the end of 2003 showed a consistent, high level of cocaine interdiction despite four Orange Threat Level alerts that forced the reallocation of certain interdiction assets to homeland security missions.
The critics’ metaphor for the drug trade is a “balloon” that, when pressed in one place, simply pops up in another. It is true that criminal enterprises invariably attempt to reestablish themselves in an environment with the most permissive rule of law. It is also true that traffickers have more than once been driven out of a country by drug control efforts only to reconstitute their business in a neighboring country—as in the mid-1990s, when plummeting coca cultivation in Peru was offset by rapid planting in neighboring Colombia.
The marijuana Americans smoke comes from three main sources: U.S. outdoor and indoor cultivation, Mexican outdoor cultivation, and high-potency indoor cultivation from Canada. Although estimating marijuana production is an imprecise science, and while formal estimates of domestic production on public lands are a work in progress, a rough estimate for marijuana consumed in the United States per year would place U.S. imports from Mexico at approximately 5,000 metric tons, with roughly another 1,000 metric tons coming from Canada, and more than 2,500 metric tons produced domestically.Marijuana cultivation is prevalent in many regions of the United States, with substantial concentrations in California, Hawaii, Kentucky, and Tennessee.
In a national survey, 75 percent of law enforcement respondents reported outdoor marijuana cultivation in their areas. Some 74 percent reported “indoor grow” cultivation as well.Outdoor cultivation typically involves small plots where significant profits can be made with limited risks, but larger plots have been observed in locations such as National Forest Service lands in California, where cannabis eradication rose from a reported 443,595 plants in 2000 to 495,536 plants in 2001, the most recent year for which data is available. Indeed, much of the outdoor cannabis cultivation in the United States is believed to take place on public lands because of their relative remoteness.
Nationally, the National Drug Intelligence Center (NDIC) reports that cannabis cultivation on public lands has been on the rise. In response to this threat, during the 2004 growing season, NDIC will conduct a limited-scope pilot project that seeks to estimate the amount of cannabis being cultivated on public lands in California, with the eventual goal of producing an annual scientific estimate of total domestic cannabis cultivation and production.In addition, over the coming year, Federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies will expand their efforts to target the organizations misusing public lands to grow millions of dollars’ worth of marijuana. Law enforcement agencies typically wait to find marijuana plots on public lands until the marijuana is ready for harvest. This year, by contrast, Federal, state, and local law enforcement in key areas will begin efforts much earlier, using the pre-harvest months to train officers and review actionable intelligence. And while much emphasis historically has been placed on eradicating already-cultivated marijuana in the late summer, law enforcement will increase efforts to prevent the planting of marijuana itself, which typically occurs in the spring.
Mexico: Mexico is the largest foreign source of marijuana consumed in the United States, including both the relatively low-THC commercial grade (1–6 percent THC) and more potent sinsemilla varieties (averaging 10–15 percent THC).
The Government of Mexico has maintained an aggressive eradication program to counter marijuana production, with Mexican military and police units eradicating almost 80 percent of the total estimated cultivation—some 36,000 hectares of cannabis—during 2003.While production estimates are not available for 2003, in recent years Mexico has produced roughly 8,000 metric tons of marijuana.
Mexico’s marijuana interdiction program seized 2,100 metric tons in 2003, and the United States seized another 863 metric tons along the Southwest border during the first nine months of 2003—meaning that eradication and interdiction removed more than four-fifths of Mexico’s marijuana supply stream, leaving approximately 5,000 metric tons of Mexican marijuana for distribution to the U.S. market.Mexico has devoted more funds to interdiction and has restructured its institutions to increase interdiction capacity to more effectively stop the flow of drugs, including the use of X-ray technology to identify contraband in cars and trucks.
In 2004 and 2005, the United States will intensify its support to the Government of Mexico’s marijuana control efforts through operational planning and technology assistance, with a goal of eradicating almost all of the crop.
Canada: The United States remains concerned about widespread Canadian cultivation of highpotency marijuana, significant amounts of which are smuggled into the United States.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police, Customs Canada, and other dedicated Canadian law enforcement agencies have worked hard to close down grow houses and to arrest and prosecute their operators. Despite their efforts, the problem remains extremely serious.Consider the sheer numbers of producers.
In 2001, more than 2,000 grow operations were seized throughout the United States. In Canada, the previous year, 2,800 indoor grow operations were seized in British Columbia alone, according to the Royal Canadian Mounted Police.
Nor are such grow operations confined to western Canada: one Canadian Government report estimated that there may be “as many as 15,000 grow ops active in Ontario.” The United States is a likely market for a large percentage of the high-potency marijuana produced at such sites. Building on Canadian Government estimates for the number of indoor cultivation sites and their average size, we estimate that Canadian shipments of marijuana to the United States could exceed 1,000 metric tons annually.
Both Canada and the United States face challenges in estimating marijuana production. The United States Government is currently studying ways to improve our estimates for domestic production, but we cannot wait for perfect intelligence before beginning to deal more aggressively with the serious problem of high-potency indoor grows, at home and abroad.The U.S. Government is committed to working closely with Canadian authorities to address this serious problem. The United States intends to engage in frequent consultations with the new Canadian Government on an array of important drug control issues, including the importance of having and enforcing appropriate criminal penalties for marijuana traffickers, engaging in combined efforts at border interdiction, and attacking organized criminal groups that are directly involved in marijuana production and trafficking.
The U.S. Government’s master list of targeted trafficking organizations is shorter this year, thanks to the elimination of eight major trafficking organizations during the past fiscal year (see box on pages 34 and 35). Another seven organizations were weakened enough to be classified as “significantly disrupted.”Interdiction forces from the Departments of Defense and Homeland Security registered impressive interdiction successes during 2003. These successes are partly the result of Operation Panama Express, an intelligence-driven program managed by the Departments of Justice and Homeland Security that targets fishing and other vessels departing from Colombia’s Pacific and Caribbean coasts.Data available as of the end of 2003 showed a consistent, high level of cocaine interdiction despite four Orange Threat Level alerts that forced the reallocation of certain interdiction assets to homeland security missions.
The critics’ metaphor for the drug trade is a “balloon” that, when pressed in one place, simply pops up in another. It is true that criminal enterprises invariably attempt to reestablish themselves in an environment with the most permissive rule of law. It is also true that traffickers have more than once been driven out of a country by drug control efforts only to reconstitute their business in a neighboring country—as in the mid-1990s, when plummeting coca cultivation in Peru was offset by rapid planting in neighboring Colombia.
The marijuana Americans smoke comes from three main sources: U.S. outdoor and indoor cultivation, Mexican outdoor cultivation, and high-potency indoor cultivation from Canada. Although estimating marijuana production is an imprecise science, and while formal estimates of domestic production on public lands are a work in progress, a rough estimate for marijuana consumed in the United States per year would place U.S. imports from Mexico at approximately 5,000 metric tons, with roughly another 1,000 metric tons coming from Canada, and more than 2,500 metric tons produced domestically.Marijuana cultivation is prevalent in many regions of the United States, with substantial concentrations in California, Hawaii, Kentucky, and Tennessee.
In a national survey, 75 percent of law enforcement respondents reported outdoor marijuana cultivation in their areas. Some 74 percent reported “indoor grow” cultivation as well.Outdoor cultivation typically involves small plots where significant profits can be made with limited risks, but larger plots have been observed in locations such as National Forest Service lands in California, where cannabis eradication rose from a reported 443,595 plants in 2000 to 495,536 plants in 2001, the most recent year for which data is available. Indeed, much of the outdoor cannabis cultivation in the United States is believed to take place on public lands because of their relative remoteness.
Nationally, the National Drug Intelligence Center (NDIC) reports that cannabis cultivation on public lands has been on the rise. In response to this threat, during the 2004 growing season, NDIC will conduct a limited-scope pilot project that seeks to estimate the amount of cannabis being cultivated on public lands in California, with the eventual goal of producing an annual scientific estimate of total domestic cannabis cultivation and production.In addition, over the coming year, Federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies will expand their efforts to target the organizations misusing public lands to grow millions of dollars’ worth of marijuana. Law enforcement agencies typically wait to find marijuana plots on public lands until the marijuana is ready for harvest. This year, by contrast, Federal, state, and local law enforcement in key areas will begin efforts much earlier, using the pre-harvest months to train officers and review actionable intelligence. And while much emphasis historically has been placed on eradicating already-cultivated marijuana in the late summer, law enforcement will increase efforts to prevent the planting of marijuana itself, which typically occurs in the spring.
Mexico: Mexico is the largest foreign source of marijuana consumed in the United States, including both the relatively low-THC commercial grade (1–6 percent THC) and more potent sinsemilla varieties (averaging 10–15 percent THC).
The Government of Mexico has maintained an aggressive eradication program to counter marijuana production, with Mexican military and police units eradicating almost 80 percent of the total estimated cultivation—some 36,000 hectares of cannabis—during 2003.While production estimates are not available for 2003, in recent years Mexico has produced roughly 8,000 metric tons of marijuana.
Mexico’s marijuana interdiction program seized 2,100 metric tons in 2003, and the United States seized another 863 metric tons along the Southwest border during the first nine months of 2003—meaning that eradication and interdiction removed more than four-fifths of Mexico’s marijuana supply stream, leaving approximately 5,000 metric tons of Mexican marijuana for distribution to the U.S. market.Mexico has devoted more funds to interdiction and has restructured its institutions to increase interdiction capacity to more effectively stop the flow of drugs, including the use of X-ray technology to identify contraband in cars and trucks.
In 2004 and 2005, the United States will intensify its support to the Government of Mexico’s marijuana control efforts through operational planning and technology assistance, with a goal of eradicating almost all of the crop.
Canada: The United States remains concerned about widespread Canadian cultivation of highpotency marijuana, significant amounts of which are smuggled into the United States.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police, Customs Canada, and other dedicated Canadian law enforcement agencies have worked hard to close down grow houses and to arrest and prosecute their operators. Despite their efforts, the problem remains extremely serious.Consider the sheer numbers of producers.
In 2001, more than 2,000 grow operations were seized throughout the United States. In Canada, the previous year, 2,800 indoor grow operations were seized in British Columbia alone, according to the Royal Canadian Mounted Police.
Nor are such grow operations confined to western Canada: one Canadian Government report estimated that there may be “as many as 15,000 grow ops active in Ontario.” The United States is a likely market for a large percentage of the high-potency marijuana produced at such sites. Building on Canadian Government estimates for the number of indoor cultivation sites and their average size, we estimate that Canadian shipments of marijuana to the United States could exceed 1,000 metric tons annually.
Both Canada and the United States face challenges in estimating marijuana production. The United States Government is currently studying ways to improve our estimates for domestic production, but we cannot wait for perfect intelligence before beginning to deal more aggressively with the serious problem of high-potency indoor grows, at home and abroad.The U.S. Government is committed to working closely with Canadian authorities to address this serious problem. The United States intends to engage in frequent consultations with the new Canadian Government on an array of important drug control issues, including the importance of having and enforcing appropriate criminal penalties for marijuana traffickers, engaging in combined efforts at border interdiction, and attacking organized criminal groups that are directly involved in marijuana production and trafficking.
